The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

With the opponent I have been playing with for several games, we understand that situations like these are best addressed in HRs and if there had been a previous bone of contention it should have been worked out before starting a new game. However, The use of pickets by the Allies were normally limited to combat vessels with radar as pickets against massive kamakazi attacks. The use of allied pickets as displayed in this contest is practically suicide missions for the crews and would be against the national norms. If the allies were losing and an invasion of their home land was a threat then norms change and use of these pickets would probably been used, but that is not the case here. The Japanese mindset was far different and with some soul searching they allowed suicide attacks as policy, when the tides of war turned against them. What the game engine allows isn't always what a real nation would ask it's service members to do, especially at this point of the war, where we see basic equality is forces.

So you have a problem with the Allies changing their doctrine in a beneficial manner to improve their performance in the war. Do you have the same problem with the Japanese changing their doctrine to improve their performance? If so, try playing the Japanese without the ability to coordinate navy and army command of air units and missions, without properly escorting merchant convoys, using the KB as bait to try and create surface engagement opportunities, and have the Japanese subs ignore merchant shipping targets.

Why should one side be allowed to benefit from hindsight, and the other be expected to ignore those benefits?

[Lecivius]

I have not been in John AAR since I started posting in here. I want to go to his page one to see what he has posted as to his interpretation of HR's are before I make any comments. I say that up front so if anyone says anything I can state in all honestly I am only looking at page 1 of his AAR. OPSEC must be maintained [;)]

<Edit>

He does have his HR's posted on page one of his AAR. I did read down on page 2 until "Game on", at which point it became moot. No where does he make any mention of use of pickets, in any fashion. Considering this is his mod, that he spent months designing, that he knows inside and out, that this Mod is tilted to give the Japanese player far greater offensive flexibility, add in some very...pointed rules in his favor at the outset in this game, as well as the fact that this became acknowledged as overpowered in Japan's favor and was toned down in later revisions without a change in the HR's laid out in the onset already putting John in a highly favorable position, should make any complaints by any JFB embarrassing.

I understand people wanting to play a 'historical' game. If so, go play Scenario 1 with PDU off. This game was laid out with rules agreed upon at the onset. There is nothing historical about this Mod at all. It is a game, being played to our enjoyment thanks to 2 people sharing their experience. If John is unhappy, someone needs to point out he is already a bully in this particular game. Does he need to be petulant as well?

[crsutton]

If I recall correctly it was a fishing boat with a radio that disrupted the Doolittle raid in early 1942.

Your grand plan to invade Hokkaido was squelched and his grand plan to ambush your operation was squelched. Even-steven in my book. Play on....

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

If I recall correctly it was a fishing boat with a radio that disrupted the Doolittle raid in early 1942.

Your grand plan to invade Hokkaido was squelched and his grand plan to ambush your operation was squelched. Even-steven in my book. Play on....

This is an awesome point!!!

[Canoerebel]

6/3/43

Operation Circus: The weight of the Allied shipping continues to shift east even as the KB approaches from the southwest. The enemy carriers are roughly 25 or 30 hexes SSW of Adak Island. My carriers, in contrast, are near Dutch Harbor and will slide NE up to or past Cold Bay. So I don't expect any carrier action tomorrow. I am somewhat skeptical that John will come hunting where the Allies have big bases operational (the Kodiak region), but he's aggressive and peeved, so I'll watch carefully.

Not all Allied shipping will be out of harm's way. Some are just now getting under way and are slow and therefore at risk. Some merchants are remaining at Adak to make some final unloading before disbanding in port and praying that a few Army fighter squadrons are sufficieint protection. And a host of ships - especially slow stuff like LST and XAK will probably disband at Dutch Harbor, where I somehow have 25 Zillion troops unloaded (way over the limit) including something like 12 AA units. (This came about because 80% of my troops were Transport loaded, the idea being to get to Hokkaido fast and then use the huge Nav Support unit to facilitate rapid unloading and movement inland. Dutch Harbor is serving that purpose - a hub where I would then distrubte the troops to the other islands; but the KB incoming will disrupt things for awhile).

More SigInt that John has troops inbound to Attu. In part this may be because he is concerned that he was caught unprepared with inadequate garrisons, so that he wishes to beef up things. But it's also possible these are counterattack forces. I am (again) a bit skeptical that John would undertake a massive counteroffensive amphibious operation at this point - that instead he'll just try to halt the advance right where it is - but this bears carefully watching.

Battle of Sumatra: BBs continue to bombard - sevens till confirmed in this region. (This is helpful to Circus since I don't have to worry about bombardment mission by these particular ships.) No Japanese attacks of any kind. John may want to bring in reinforcements and, meanwhile, continue to bombard hoping that my supply will disappear. Eventually it will, though I do have these Forlorn Missions inbound.

Elsewhere: Nothing imminent, but lots of heavy preparation ongoing as the Allies hope to have a window if John overcommits to NoPac.

[Canoerebel]

6/4/43

Operation Circus: KB is 14 hexes SW of Adak Island, 30 hexes SW of the Death Star near Cold Bay. Most Allied merchants had enough of a head start, and KB is taking a less-threatening course, so that most should clear the area. I'll know more tomorrow - does John use KB aircraft to hit Adak's new garrison preparatory of future counterinvasion? Or does KB slide east looking for advantage to hit Allied shipping?

As I mentioned yesterday, Dutch Harbor is the clearing house for Allied troops and (temporarily but indefinately) is overstacked. The base now shows "293" flak - a huge, vast number. For comparison, Sabang at one time showed "93," a level that persuaded John to avoid the base for four months after he took heavy losses. I have 21 ships disbanded at Dutch and would like to see KB's strike aircraft come in; then, after those aircraft were savaged, the Death Star would strike (this is my fantasy daydream that won't come true but nevertheless titillates the imagination).

Death Star will continue moving slowly NE, near the "Kodiak Complex" of Allied airfields.

Umnak Island fell to 2nd Marine Div. today. This was important - I really wanted this one wrapped up before something might go awry. Ungarrsioned Akutan should fall tomorrow to a rag-tag bunch of support troops that began landing today. And the Allied assault force at Cold Bay is ashore in numbers now and will try the first probing deliberate attack tomorrow, preceded by BBs North Carolina, Washington and Massachusetts bombarding. With forts and Kure Assault Division defending, I expect these attacks to take some time, but this is the last IJ lodgement east of Amchitka.

The Japanese struck today for the first time, with subs sinking an LST (the first lost of the campaign and the war) and an xAP. To balance, Plunger happened across the KB's trailing replenishment TF (SW of KB a day or two) and sank a big AO (the second of the campaign sunk by USN submarines).

Battle of Sumatra: Quiet day. I forgot to check supply, but it's probably around 45k. That's enough to last maybe two more weeks barring resupply. D Plus Seven Months is less than a week away.

[Canoerebel]

In the war, the Allies used the most efficient, least risky, least expensive means of detecting the enemy and guarding against sneak attacks. Fortunately for them, they had access to great signals intercepts and other intel about location of Japanese carriers so that they didn't have to resort to more costly means of detection. But if SigInt hadn't been reliable, the Allies would have developed some other technology to fill the gap. Certainly the use of small, inexpensive, lightly manned ships would have been one possibility.

I'm doing exactly the same thing. My SigInt, while valuable and much better than Japan, leaves much to be desired compared to the real war. So I search for the next most effective, least risky, least expensive way of detecting and guarding against sneak attack. The game doesn't allow me to create fishing trawlers or a new class of micro-military ships armed with radar and three guys with binoculars. What I'm doing is the next best thing.

The Japanese player doesn't often do this because most games don't make it to 1943. In 1941 and 1942, KB can pretty much go wherever it wants to go. If it happens to bump into Death Star, KB will usually win. Too, the Japanese player has much longer-ranged patrols, the network of islands, and the ability to shift Netties around vast distances. The Allies lack such luxuries and therefore seek other efficiencies.

By 1944, KB is no longer able to compete with Death Star. The Japanese player by then is on the defensive and can rely on its network of islands and patrols to guard against deep incursions and surprise attacks.

So I think it's relatively rare for the IJ player to find himself in the position that the Allied player is in - valuable asset (carriers) venturing forth deep into enemy waters facing (often) much larger (potentially) enemy carrier force.

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

With the opponent I have been playing with for several games, we understand that situations like these are best addressed in HRs and if there had been a previous bone of contention it should have been worked out before starting a new game. However, The use of pickets by the Allies were normally limited to combat vessels with radar as pickets against massive kamakazi attacks. The use of allied pickets as displayed in this contest is practically suicide missions for the crews and would be against the national norms. If the allies were losing and an invasion of their home land was a threat then norms change and use of these pickets would probably been used, but that is not the case here. The Japanese mindset was far different and with some soul searching they allowed suicide attacks as policy, when the tides of war turned against them. What the game engine allows isn't always what a real nation would ask it's service members to do, especially at this point of the war, where we see basic equality is forces.

[AllenK]

Perusing an old dusty archive, I came across an exam paper for the theory section of the WITP:AE Master (2nd Dan) Qualifying Examination.

Q5. Your opponent has a tactic of using numerous single ship TF's to probe your defences and act as picket ships giving advance warning of your movements. Do you:

A) Do little or nothing about them. Wail and stamp your feet when your plans go awry and/or you get caught with your pants down. Call for immediate House Rules to outlaw such an unfair/unhistorical/unethical/insert favourite adjective abuse of the system?

B) Institute your own counter operations to increase the risk/cost and reduce the reward/benefits of such a tactic, with the aim of making your opponent either abandon it or become more circumspect in its use?

C) Integrate (B) into your own offensive, defensive and intelligence operations with the aim of confusing your opponent as to your strengths, weaknesses and intentions, thereby increasing your potential for successful smoke and mirrors, feints, diversions and traps?

Discuss.

Of course the theory is so much easier than the practice so, as with many examinations, Part 2 involves the demonstration of competence in the practical application of the theory. Sadly, my own endeavours in this respect have yet to make it out of '101 WITP:AE For Dummies'.

[poodlebrain]

But it's also possible these are counterattack forces.

They will have a lot of propping to do before they are ready to take on any of the bases you liberated. If he waits for 100% preparation, then you have 3 months to develop your defenses during which time you should get some clues from SIGINT as to any intended target(s).

Barring an epic navel victory by the Japanese, I do not think they have the ability to successfully counterinvade any of the Circus targets.

[Lecivius]

I'll bet he's apocalyptic. But this has to have been a foreseen possibility.

Still, I wish you could have gotten ashore on the HI. I would have taken the time to drive up north to see his face [:D][:D][:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I'll bet he's apocalyptic. But this has to have been a foreseen possibility.

Still, I wish you could have gotten ashore on the HI. I would have taken the time to drive up north to see his face [:D][:D][:D]

Ooooooof. [8D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

But it's also possible these are counterattack forces.

They will have a lot of propping to do before they are ready to take on any of the bases you liberated. If he waits for 100% preparation, then you have 3 months to develop your defenses during which time you should get some clues from SIGINT as to any intended target(s).

Barring an epic navel victory by the Japanese, I do not think they have the ability to successfully counterinvade any of the Circus targets.

What if there's lint in there? [;)]

I agree with you. By the summer of '43 Japan's amphibious dreams are pretty much over. Slow-unload ships, prep times, crap tanks, few CVEs . . .

I'd go further and say that any reinforcement of the Aleutians--any--is his ego writing checks his pixels can't cash. Alfred said a long time ago that islands are rock-paper-scissors and my game with Lokasenna has shown me this over and over. If you aren't willing to invest ships in island defense you can't defend islands. And the Aleutians ain't worth ships to him.

Without ships CL/DD bombardment eats the guts out of the garrison and opens CAP cracks the USA 2E force can exploit. With DBB AA changes it's not dangerous to send in fast bombardment. The islands in that chain are at convenient distances from each other for 1-move bombardment missions and CR has dozens of AKEs. Bombardment eats out the air force on the ground. The air force replacement eats out the supply dump, what the bombardment doesn't burn. 4Es from these big, new bases lay mines at night. Subs get west (torpedoes heal real soon now) and eat at supply inbound. And Japan ties up multiple IDs to no good end. The Kuriles are a whole different proposition and relatively safe for a year or more. The Aleutians don't buy Japan any defense. And when or if CR wants to hit the Kuriles he can V-course at them and completely avoid any Aleutian involvement. The Allies have huge supply at their backs, their biggest yards, secure inside coastal supply routes. And Shermans. And Seabees. And Marines. And, and, and . . . The Aleutians are a nice VP bag early in the game. They outlive their usefulness. Especially when you plunk troops onto Cold Bay and leave Dutch empty. [X(]

Japan ought to be pulling out of the western islands, not sending anything in. But this is John, and his ego is bruised.

[Encircled]

Barring an epic navel victory by the Japanese, I do not think they have the ability to successfully counterinvade any of the Circus targets.

Why would he?

If he's a player driven by ego, he's not going to have a lot of fun for the next two years.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius
I'll bet he's apocalyptic. But this has to have been a foreseen possibility.

Still, I wish you could have gotten ashore on the HI. I would have taken the time to drive up north to see his face [:D][:D][:D]

You all know that John and I are close friends "outside the game," but that inside we have a long history of antipathy. You've read my posts about his boasting; you know how hard it was to come to grips with the probable loss of Sabang; etc. etc. So, yes, it is very satisfying to see Circus come to fruitation after so much time and effort and to watch John go kinda bezerk.

And, yes, Circus would have truly set him off had it come a month later with ten divisions. I think the war probably would've ended before Christmas (as every Allied soldier always thinks when the going is good).

But I think Circus would have been doomed if I had proceeded to Hokkaido now. It had everything - especially a wide open island - except enough infantry to hold.

But, my, my, the Aleutians have been a most satisfactory secondary objective. Nearly all the pageantry as John has burst into flames without near the risk.

No, Circus won't end the war in '43, but it's a propitious start towards ending the war within a reasonable time.

[savelius2]

I don't have any strategic insights, and if I did opsec would preclude mentioning them. I do think people should have a bit more empathy for the other side though. This is a game spanning years of real-time, and within that time requires enormous commitment from the players. I don't think it is surprising that tensions rise when plans go awry and the unexpected happens - at stake are hundreds, if not thousands of hours of plans. When it happens it is important to remember it is ultimately a team enterprise, hopefully one where both players enjoy the game. The proper response is what Canoe and John are doing, namely talking about it, getting consensus and moving on.

Anyway, I've greatly enjoyed your postings, Canoe. I'm reading both sides and won't make any comment save that your postings have been consistently enjoyable and informative. Thanks!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: savelius2

I don't have any strategic insights, and if I did opsec would preclude mentioning them. I do think people should have a bit more empathy for the other side though. This is a game spanning years of real-time, and within that time requires enormous commitment from the players. I don't think it is surprising that tensions rise when plans go awry and the unexpected happens - at stake are hundreds, if not thousands of hours of plans. When it happens it is important to remember it is ultimately a team enterprise, hopefully one where both players enjoy the game. The proper response is what Canoe and John are doing, namely talking about it, getting consensus and moving on.

Anyway, I've greatly enjoyed your postings, Canoe. I'm reading both sides and won't make any comment save that your postings have been consistently enjoyable and informative. Thanks!

I don't think you have knowledge of the experience those commenting have with this issue. This is not something new and people are not being harsh.

[Mike Dubost]

As someone who has to date played a grand total of 3 turns AE (in the Guadalcanal scenario), I would like to express my appreciation for the discussions here. Even when there is almost as much heat as light, I still learn about what the engine allows, and what the parameters are that can lead to success or failure. I just want to put in a plea to keep it civil enough that I can continue to learn!

[Canoerebel]

KB closing on Operation Circus, June 5, 1943.

[JeffroK]

CR, I only see 3 Sub TF's.

The seas in this area should be teeming with periscopes as JIII has to come here to react.

[Canoerebel]

6/5/43

Operation Circus: As posted above, KB is moving pretty strongly. This is supported by John's emails. I haven't shared those with you the past couple of days, but he really is frothing. He speaks of "photons" and "FUN!" and similar things. He sent another tonight strongly suggesting a big attack tomorrow. I can't figure that out - surely he doesn't think I'll fight out in the open; surely he knows I'll pull back to the cover of LBA; but he acts like a big fight is inevitable. Is he so worked up that he's going to pull an "Ichiki Detachment" maneuver, like in the real war?

Perhaps, more likely, he's just glad to have closed on the Aluetians where he can hit something, anything afloat. There are targets out there, but nothing of real value (unless I overlooked a TF while issuing orders, which is possible since there are 697 on the map, it seems).

In a most pleasant surprise, Cold Bay fell on the first attack today, preceded by five Allied BBs (including one RN) bombarding. That's the last contested base in the Circus area of operations. There are three dot bases left, but only one (Dora Harbor) is important. So to this point Circus has exceeded all expectations.

Allied subs hit a few merchants inbound north of Marcus, including one bearing troops. SigInt has more info of units bound for Paramushiro, Attu, etc.

An IJN sub damaged an LST at Umnak, but got hammered in return. And a KV (Canadian, I think) badly damaged another sub near Marcus. And twice there was the sound of ships hitting mines - no mention in the combat report, so almost certainly subs trying to penetrate Dutch Harbor, which has 786 mines at the moment.

Battle of Sumatra: No attacks or bombardments today, but it looks like one is coming in tonight. My FT supply TF was close enough to reach Sabang at full speed tonight, but I'm pulling it back a bit since BBs are inbound. John's going to keep Sabang closed with his BBs, which makes the fate of Sumatra certain. The cost to him is that seven of his BBs are tied down here through the Circus operation. That's not a huge cost to him, but it's something. Meanwhile, he had an infantry division in position to join the army at Sabang. Instead it re-crossed the jungle to take position on the west road. He has three divisions there now facing reinforced 1st Marine Div., which is now behind three forts in jungle-rough terrain. I think the Allies can hold (barring nuclear bombardments), but we'll see. Supply is still holding at 47k.