cap_and_gown(j) v witpqs(a) - no witpqs

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

July has been a tough month on allied subs. They are as thick as flies on a cow patty in the Solomons and up around Formosa/Kyushu. Last turn the S-44 bought the farm at Tulagi. Most of the others on this list are probably not sunk, but they have been damaged. (I know for a fact that Halibut is not sunk.)

2 reports from bomb hits....had much luck with ASW planes? What are your settings?

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

July has been a tough month on allied subs. They are as thick as flies on a cow patty in the Solomons and up around Formosa/Kyushu. Last turn the S-44 bought the farm at Tulagi. Most of the others on this list are probably not sunk, but they have been damaged. (I know for a fact that Halibut is not sunk.)

2 reports from bomb hits....had much luck with ASW planes? What are your settings?

This is just for July. Below is a picture I posted in the War Room subsection for the entire war up through June. I know that one sub was sunk outright. Most of the others I believe were only damaged. Witpqs says that he has had a steady stream of subs cyclying through his ship yards that have been damaged by my ASW AC.

I use Helen's trained on ASW to a 60+ level and set to 2000 feet. I get a lot of ops losses (1 or 2 every other turn) but it does seem to damage his sub fleet.

[CapAndGown]

July 28, 1943

I guess witpqs decided that Merauke was going to be difficult to build up. He has now pulled out. First he airdropped on the place, capturing it. Then he pulled the airborne pukes out. Then he flew in a base force (I assume) and some P-47s. Now he has pulled the base force out. The planes left on the field, I gather, are damaged. I am now thinking about air dropping on it myself to recapture the place, after which I will immediately pull those guys out again.

No sign of the next allied offensive yet. He has some BBs down at Luganville. I am guessing these are some of the slower, older ones. Their mission would seem to be guarding the New Hebrides.

ADDED: Forgot to mention, one of my E boats (a Kamikaze destroyer conversion with high experience) was topedoed and sunk. I have lost three destroyers on ASW patrol to allied subs now. In contrast, Japanese subs have not torpedoed one warship during the entire war. They always miss when shooting at destroyers, and that is about all they ever get a chance to shoot at.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown
In contrast, Japanese subs have not torpedoed one warship during the entire war. They always miss when shooting at destroyers, and that is about all they ever get a chance to shoot at.

THAT is bad luck or something. Not one? In my game against Canoe, I have already sunk a couple, though both were previously damaged.

The biggest ship I have ever sunk outright with a sub (i.e. not previously damaged), was a CVE. Cuttlefish though sank USS WASP in my game against him.

[CapAndGown]

August 2, 1943

Hooray! The allies invaded Suva! This is excellent news for several reasons. 1) 2 American Divisions that could be invading somewhere more vital are clearing out the garrison on Fiji that is not accomplishing much. 2) I have fragments of those units sitting at Rabaul waiting to be rebuilt as soon as their parents die. And 3) because the allies invaded Suva rather than Nadi, they had to put up with my CD guns. The CD guns did a credible job of banging up the allied ships, although I am not sure how since last I checked they were awfully low on supplies.

Allied Ships
xAK Unicoi, Shell hits 7
xAK Arcata
AM Tern, Shell hits 1
xAK Idaho

Allied Ships
LSI(L) Empire Pride, Shell hits 54, heavy fires, heavy damage
APA President Hayes
APA President Polk, Shell hits 10, on fire
Allied Ships
APA Henderson
APA President Hayes
APA President Polk, Shell hits 6, on fire
Allied Ships
APA Barnett, Shell hits 61, heavy fires, heavy damage
AKA Alhena, Shell hits 2
AKA Bellatrix, Shell hits 2
APA Henderson, Shell hits 9
APA President Hayes, Shell hits 9, heavy fires
APA President Polk, on fire

Allied Ships
DMS Zane
xAK Manoa
Allied Ships
xAK Diamond head, Shell hits 4, on fire
DMS Zane
xAK Mathew Luckenbach, Shell hits 9, on fire
xAK Manoa
Allied Ships
xAK Mathew Luckenbach
DMS Zane
xAK Diamond head, Shell hits 2, on fire
xAK Manoa

Allied Ships
DD Ellet, Shell hits 1, on fire
AK Adhara
Allied Ships
AK Crater, Shell hits 6, on fire
DD Ellet
DD Benham
AK Adhara
Allied Ships
AK Draco, Shell hits 53, heavy fires, heavy damage
AK Prince Georges, Shell hits 7, on fire
AK Adhara

Allied Ships
LCT-59, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Heed
AM Starling
LCT-58, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
LCT-60, Shell hits 2, on fire
Allied Ships
LCT-58, Shell hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Heed, Shell hits 5, on fire
AM Starling
LCT-59, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
Allied Ships
LCT-60, on fire
AM Heed
AM Starling

Allied Ships
DD Patterson, Shell hits 5, on fire
DD Blue, Shell hits 1
xAP Harpoon, Shell hits 9
AM Constant
xAP Henry S Grove, Shell hits 3, on fire
AKA Castor
Allied Ships
DD Blue, Shell hits 6
xAP Henry S Grove, Shell hits 1, on fire
AM Constant
DD Patterson, on fire
xAP Red Jacket
AKA Castor
Allied Ships
AM Constant, Shell hits 1
AKA Castor

I don't know how much of this is FOW. Nothing shows up on the sunk ships list. And some of the ships that are listed as on fire in one phase do not show fires in the next phase. Still, it would appear that some damage was done and done to some of the better amphibious ships the allies have.

The allies also have a large contingent of B-24 down around Fiji as well. They bombed the ground forces at Suva today. As long as they are bombing those guys, they are not bombing my more vital bases.

Still no sign of allied CVs. Jailut was reconned today. Mili was reconned the last two days. It would seem that witpqs is doing an inventory of what I have at different bases.

[CapAndGown]

August 3, 1943

Allies continue to unload at Suva. More ships hit by the CD guns. At least one sank according to the audio queues.

Allied Ships
AM Constant
AKA Castor
Allied Ships
xAP Henry S Grove
AM Constant
DD Monaghan
AKA Castor
Allied Ships
xAP Henry S Grove, Shell hits 5
DD Monaghan
DD MacDonough
AM Constant
AKA Castor
DD Blue
Allied Ships
AKA Castor
AM Constant

Allied Ships
xAK Mathew Luckenbach, Shell hits 1
DMS Zane
xAK Manoa
Allied Ships
xAK Lihue, Shell hits 4
DMS Zane
xAK Mathew Luckenbach, Shell hits 1
xAK Manoa
Allied Ships
xAK Mathew Luckenbach, Shell hits 3, on fire
DMS Zane
xAK Diamond head, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Manoa
Allied Ships
DMS Zane
xAK Manoa

Allied Ships
AK Crater, on fire
DD Benham
DD Russell
DD Ellet
AK Arided, Shell hits 4, on fire
AK Adhara
Allied Ships
AK Arided, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage
DD Ellet
DD Benham
AK Crater, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Russell
AK Adhara

Allied Ships
LST-20, Shell hits 10, on fire
DE Barker
LST-17, Shell hits 11, on fire
Allied Ships
LST-17, Shell hits 6, heavy fires
DE Barker
LST-20, on fire

[CapAndGown]

August 4, 1943

Suva was captured by the allies today. Let's hope he takes out Nadi as well.

The allies are bringing in supplies and/or reinforcments to both the Santa Cruz Islands and northern Australia. I am going to try to interfere with this movement.

[CapAndGown]

For the Santa Cruz operation I am bring down the KB in case the appearance of my surface forces poised to strike brings out the allied surface forces. Besides air opposition, the biggest problem with this operation will be the allied subs. Probably more the 50% of the allied sub fleet is infesting the Solomons. My ships are probably going to get shot at every other hex they move into. So my surface groups need to travel with large numbers of escorts, 10 DDs minimum. This is most likely still not enough to protect my capital ships.

[koontz]

Looks that you have your defence very well organized!
Long time lurker here!

Maybe do an sweep with all your sub east to hoppefully put an "fish" or two in any evil Amis?
Or Southeast, cuz they are most likely in the area!

[CapAndGown]

August 5, 1943

Not such a great turn. Started out with a bombardment of Derby. The xAKLs that were there last turn had already left, so I didn't get the real prize I was after and only minimal damage was caused to the base. Two Spitfires were destroyed.

Night Naval bombardment of Derby at 64,127

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire Vc Trop: 1 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
CL Yubari
CL Yura
CL Nagara
CL Jintsu
DD Hayate
DD Oite
DD Matsukaze

Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 16

Our Cruisers moving into position to bombard Vorokino (sp?) were attacked by a large dive bomber force. Our CAP was unable to get to the bombers. 5 Corsairs were shot down and one was lost operationally.

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Kirakira at 116,140
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 8
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 6

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 24
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 32
SBD-3 Dauntless x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 2 destroyed
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 2 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
E Kamikaze, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Abukuma, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CL Kinu
CL Sendai, Bomb hits 3, on fire
DD Sawakaze, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CA Tone, Bomb hits 1
DD Susuzuki
CA Chikuma, Bomb hits 3
CA Maya, Bomb hits 1

E Kamikaze, DD Sawakaze, CL Abukuma, and CL Sendai were split off into an escort group and are are returning to Munda and thence to Rabaul. The rest of the force will press on with the mission. Tanaka is leading the force and I figure he is supposed to be "tenacious," in the words of Morrison. So casualties be damned, onward!

Ramree Island just built up its airfield to size 1. So some allied troops got by me without my noticing. It really is too bad that anything the AI controls is worthless. Every time I set a recon unit to "commander discretion" there is no discretion, they always target the exact same base every turn rather than rotate around. And doing this manually is a b*tch. Too Much Micro-Management! Anyway, this certainly is a wake up call that I need to pay more attention to Burma.

[CapAndGown]

August 6-7, 1943

The bombardment of Vanikoro accomplished nothing. The ships I was hoping would be there cleared out. There were only some PTs, one of which put a torp into one of my DDs.
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Night Time Surface Combat, near Vanikoro at 121,145, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Maya
CL Kinu
DD Teruzuki
DD Susuzuki
DD Kishinami
DD Shinonome
DD Murakumo
E Asakaze
E Harukaze
DD Numakaze, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
PT-60
PT-61
PT-66
PT-67
PT-68, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-73

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Vanikoro at 121,145

Allied aircraft losses
P-70 Havoc: 1 destroyed on ground
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
CA Maya
CA Chikuma
CA Tone
CL Kinu

Allied ground losses:
427 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 96 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 32 disabled
Vehicles lost 15 (5 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 43
Port hits 2
Port supply hits 2

When the sun came up, the reaction from the allied airforce was not too effective, but was enough to discourage a repeat performance.

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Duff Islands at 126,138
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 47 minutes

Allied aircraft
SBD-3 Dauntless x 12

Japanese Ships
CA Maya, Bomb hits 1
CA Tone, Bomb hits 2

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Duff Islands at 126,138
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 13
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 10

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Maya
CA Chikuma

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ndeni at 119,142
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
P-39N1 Airacobra x 17
F4F-4 Wildcat x 13
F4U-1 Corsair x 21
TBF-1 Avenger x 15

Allied aircraft losses
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Numakaze, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Murakumo
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ndeni at 119,142
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes


Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 24
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 14

Japanese Ships
DD Murakumo, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Over all, this little operation has cost me one DD sunk and several other ships damaged.

I was still thinking of pressing forward with the KB since it looked as though witpqs had moved either a Cruiser or Battleship force up to defend the base. But I decided that I would a) rather keep the location of the KB secret and b) that the KBs planes and pilots need to be dedicated to the destruction of the allied carriers. My surface naval forces and LBA can deal with the allied surface threat should that prove necessary.

The KB is now headed to the DEI where I suspect an allied build up for an offensive is occuring. At least 4 divisions worth of troops are located at Port Hedland, along with 26 ships reported to be anchored in the port. The is no need for 4 divisions there unless they are preparing for an offensive. I plan on hammering Darwin, Broom, and Hedland with simultaneous bombardments while the KB provide cover.

Over at Ramree Island, my sweeps have been effective in knocking down allied fighters. Unfortunately, they have not been as effective at clearing a path for the bombers, a number of which have been shot down. So I have decided to stand down the bombers for a turn or two and concentrate on sweeping that base to whittle away at the allies fighter strength. I don't expect this is a winning strategy in the long run since I am fighting over his bases rather than mine, but my pilot quality is high enough that my losses are minimal compared to the allies right now and maybe by eroding allied fighter strength I can postpone a resumption of an allied air offensive.

[CapAndGown]

August 17, 1943

Quite a bit of small, inconsequential stuff has been happening, but nothing of major import. So I simply thought I would describe the major thrusts and counter thrusts over the last two weeks.

Burma became quite active with my attempt to shut down Ramree Island. I was unsuccessful. A bombardment failed to hit the runway and plastered and Indian Infantry division instead. Trying to bomb the place with Helens was quite costly in Helens. My sweeps were OK, but not yeilding much. So I stood down and immediately witpqs picked up the thread and started attacking the airfield at Magwe, both day and night. That went on for a few turns, but then I think it became too costly for him. I have a couple of DDs based at Rangoon tasked with breaking up convoys to Ramree. They sank an xAK and a PG a couple turns back. Right now, things have quieted down again.

Another site of action is northern OZ. Here I have been sending in surface forces to break up convoys. 2 xAKLs and and AM were sunk at Derby by a 2 DD TF, although I lost one of the DDs due to the interaction of mission speed and withdrawal after combat. The allies have 52,000 men at Port Hedland, at least 4 divisions worth. Next turn I am going to send a bombardment TF against Darwin which has gotten its airfield up to size 6.

On New Guinea I have been trying to keep Merauke suppressed. Zero from Ataipe sweep the base most every turn (weather permitting) and are followed by Helens that bomb the airfield. This had generally been working OK. Even P-47s (LRCAP out of Horn Island) are not immune to the almighty sweep bonus.

Finally, I have been bombing the airfield at Ndeni every night.

Still no sign of the next allied offensive. KB is currently located at Sorebaja updating some of its airframes with newer models. Two carriers upgraded to the A6M5. The Jill B6N2 model became available on August 15. A fairly nice torpedo bomber except for the lack of armor. A "mini" KB composed of my escort carriers is currently sailing from the Home Islands to Singapore. 2 CVE finished building on August 10. I am now up to 6 CVE including Hosho. Mostly, they are loaded up with Judy's, although Hosho has 18 Zeros, Shinyo has 33 Zeros, and Kaiyo has 6 Zeros and 18 Judy's. and I plan on making a port attack against Colombo with the mini-KB in the near future. 56 sips are reported at anchor there.

We are only 10 days away from our next CV. Chitose and Chiyoda will have also finished their conversions at the same time. In 30 days all the Unryus will be ready.

I sincerely would love to launch an offensive against the Aleutians. My problem is lack of ground forces. I am trying to build up my reserves and garrisons and don't have anything that I am willing to spare.

My current dispositions:
Garrison forces:
Sumatra: 3 divisions, 2 tank regiments
Java: 3 divisions, 5 tank regiments
Eastern DEI: 4 divisions
Kra Isthmus: 4 1/3 divisions
Burma: 1 infantry division equivalent, 2 tank divisions
Solomons/New Guinea: call it 4 division equivalents and 2 tank regiments
Kuriles: 1 and 1/2 divisions
Solomons/Gliberts: probably the equivalent of 2 divisions worth of Naval Guards and garrison units

Tactical Reserves:
1 full division each at: Singapore; Kendari; and Rabaul
Strategic Reserve:
2 divisions and 4 air fleets/armies located on Guam/Saipan/Tinian/Rota

The strategic reserve doubles as a garrison for the Marianas. Burma is very lightly held since I will bug out of there at the first sign of trouble. I plan on making a stand at Moulmein, but I am very leery of having any of my guys cut off. Moulmein and Pegu are both garrisoned by a division to prevent this. A tank division is also at Magwe, but the rest of Burma is basically garrisoned by Naval Guard units to prevent air drops.

My strategic reserve will soon grow by another division that I am going to buy out of China, but it is still too small. Significant unrestricted land units will not start arriving until November. After that point we should be in a better position to throw people in front of the onrushing allied steam roller when it finally gets going.

[CapAndGown]

August 18, 1943

The main event this turn was an all out strike by 4E bombers on Tulagi. Altogether 140 B-24 hit the airfield there from an altitude of 6k and 11k feet. While I was disappointed at the total ineffectiveness of the flak, the CAP performed well: 15 B-24 were lost A2A and 2 operationally. That is greater than a 10% loss rate.

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Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet. (I don't understand why this raid didn't show up on radar at a greater distance)
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12
A6M3a Zero x 12
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 13
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 9
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 42

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 78

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Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 4
A6M3a Zero x 2
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 2
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 5
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 22

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 35 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 3
A6M3a Zero x 1
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 2
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 3
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 17

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 38

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Tulagi , at 114,137
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 48 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 2
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 2
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 3

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 6

[CapAndGown]

August 29, 1943

This AAR has gone rather quiet for a number of reasons, but mainly because there is not too much noteworthy activity and because of a slower pace lately. But today did see some action that I thought I would take note of.

First off, my CVE TF launched a port attack on Colombo. Recon indicated there were 56-59 ships there. CAs kept showing up in the rollover, while the fighter coverage appeared to be rather weak. So I figured I would send in a bunch of Judy's from long range to try and bag some CAs. I am afraid the range (12 hexes) may have contributed to a wimpy raid since 2 Judy squadrons did not even fly. We also found some BBs in the port, not just CAs. This was unfortunate since even 500kg bombs are most likely going to not penetrate a BB's armor. Flak was murderous and we ended up losing large numbers of bombers to AAA. OTOH, our Zero's ran into a training flight of Hurricanes and shot down 9 of them.

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Morning Air attack on Colombo , at 29,48
Weather in hex: Severe storms
Raid spotted at 27 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet. No Radar?
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 35
D4Y1 Judy x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
D4Y1 Judy: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 10000' (This seems odd for a dive bomber)
Port Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
19 x A6M3a Zero sweeping at 25000 feet
5 x A6M3a Zero sweeping at 25000 feet
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
No.136 Sqn RAF with Hurricane IIb Trop (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes

Training flight from No.136 Sqn RAF has been caught up in attack


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Afternoon Air attack on Colombo , at 29,48
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 21
D4Y1 Judy x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y1 Judy: 15 destroyed, 7 damaged

Allied Ships
BB Royal Sovereign, Bomb hits 1
BB Revenge, Bomb hits 1
CA Dorsetshire, Bomb hits 1, on fire penetrating hit

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
2 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 10000'
Port Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
7 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
4 x A6M3a Zero sweeping at 25000 feet
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb

In terms of damage to the enemy, this raid accomplished nothing. OTOH, I can hope that this raid may help cause witpqs to reconsider the deployment of his fighters so that they are not all stationed on the front line, but instead some are diverted to protecting his rear area bases.

In other action, a bombardment TF of cruisers hit Darwin. The main intent was to kill some supply ships and this was partially accomplished with the sinking of the xAK Liran.

Over the past few days, Japanese subs operating east of Exmouth have sunk a number of xAKs delivering fuel to Port Hedland. It is apparent that the allies are building up a stockpile there for a future invasion of the DEI. Since a sub blockade is not terribly effective in stopping this flow, I am sending a surface group made up of CLs and DDs to intercept the steady flow of ships between Capetown and Port Hedland.

A surge of subs is right now passing by the Marshal Islands. Last time I saw a surge like this it presaged the invasion of Samoa. I am not sure if that is the case this time. It may simply be more subs heading to the Solomons. Nevertheless, I would expect that either the Marshalls or Gilberts will come under attack soon. I am not sure, though, whether this will be a diversionary thrust, or a main thrust. Since there are at least 4 divisions worth of troops of Port Hedland, with probably even more down at Perth, I am going to go on the assumption that a thrust against the Marshalls/Gilberts will be a diversion. The KB will remain based at Sorong ready to counter any fleet that appears in the bight between Australia and the DEI.

Chitose and Chiyoda finished conversion to CVLs yesterday. The CV Aso also became available. in 18 days, the last of the Unryu class CVs will be finished building.

[CapAndGown]

Sept. 2, 1943

The anticipated allied invasion has not materialized yet. But I wanted to go on the record as predicting an invasion of either the Marshalls or Gilberts will take place in 3 - 5 days. I am guessing the Gilberts. Huge numbers of subs are passing by Kwajalein and Ponape right now, a sure indication of an impending invasion.

I still don't know if this will be the main effort or a diversion. The KB remains based at Sorong to guard against an attack on either the DEI or Port Moresby. To determine if a move against the Marshals/Gilberts is the main effort or a diversion, I am going to have to sacrifice some fighters to engage the enemy CAP over his carriers. The combat report should reveal which squadrons are involved, letting me know which carriers are present. If the anticipated invasion turns out to be the main effort, I will have lost an opportunity to engage the allied carriers. OTOH, neither the Gilberts or Marshals are vital. Although I would like to hit the allied carriers while they are attacking my bases, if the allies are taking the CentPac route, I will gain valuable time to further strengthen my defenses. In two weeks I will have two more carriers added to the KB. So even though allied strength is increasing, so is Japanese, though obviously not as rapidly.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

July has been a tough month on allied subs. They are as thick as flies on a cow patty in the Solomons and up around Formosa/Kyushu. Last turn the S-44 bought the farm at Tulagi. Most of the others on this list are probably not sunk, but they have been damaged. (I know for a fact that Halibut is not sunk.)

One of my PBEM opponents and I provide a periodic 'keepin' it real' FOW discussion with one another pertaining to ASW efficacy. Recently, he had two instances where he depth charged my I-boats to the surface and shot them to pieces. The replay got the dreaded 'slips beneath the waves' message. I thought for sure both were goners.

Except they weren't. They were heavily damaged, but could be nursed back to a major port. Well, one of them would have made it back, but she got nicked by another sub. She *didn't* survive that damage on top of the DC thrashing.

Point being: I really don't believe much of what's on my ships sunk list vis a vis submarine warfare. Very thick FOW here.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy



Point being: I really don't believe much of what's on my ships sunk list vis a vis submarine warfare. Very thick FOW here.

I agree ... FOW on subs makes the lists useless. Even replay is only 50:50 at best.

[CapAndGown]

Sept. 5, 1943

Perhaps I was an intelligence officer in another life. As I predicted, an allied invasion force is approaching the Marshal Islands right on schedule.

We got an amazingly long lead time to prepare for the invasion. The spotting was made at 17 hexes. The allies are probably 3 days away from actually invading anything. This will give us time to make a more accurate assessment of the situation.

The very long distance of the the spot makes me suspect that this may be the allies main thrust. For the CV TF spotted, the rollover indicates 60 fighters, 60 bombers, and 60 auxiliary. So there are at least two fleet carriers out there, or 3-4 CVEs. There is also a surface combat force and a replenishment force trailing one hex behind.

I have decided to send the KB east from Sorong. I will allow it to sail for two days in an easterly direction before making a final commitment.

In order to firm up our intelligence, I have set a Chutai of Nells to naval attack, with an escort of Zero's. If we get a naval attack next turn, the combat report will tell me which allied CV squadrons are present, and thus which allied CVs.

In the event that this is the main allied thrust, I have 5 sentais of fighters ready to commit to the Marshals: 4 sentai of Tojo's and 1 sentai of Zero's. Their mission will be to attack and attrition the allied CV CAP. KB will only be committed after the allied CAP has been worn down.

Unfortunately, for the KB to reach the Marshals, it will need to pass through a gauntlet of dozens of allied subs. At this point the allies may have more subs than the IJN has ships. And from what I have seen, the IJN is pretty helpless against subs.

[CapAndGown]

Although the allies have something going on east of the Marshals, there is high probability that this is just a diversion.

Recon showed up over Port Moresby and Buna today and there is a large amount shipping active in northeastern Australia. Thus a move towards New Guinea is possible. Moving the KB east will put it in a position to react to any such move.

Last I checked, Port Hedland had at least 4 divisions worth of troops. I am flying another recon mission there tomorrow to check on the current state of affair there. An allied thrust originating out of Perth seems highly likely. I will not allow the KB to go too far east unless I can confirm that the major allied thrust is indeed heading to the Marshals.

The older British R class BBs, as of a week ago, were based at Colombo. It is possible that they are there to support a move on northern Sumatra or the Adaman Islands.

Overall, then, I am going to be very cautious about letting the KB wander too far away from the DEI.

[CapAndGown]

Sept. 6, 1943

Our recon attack against the US TF east of the Marshals reveals that this is the main US striking force. The composition of allied CAP indicates that 10 CVs and 3 CVLs, plus what I assume are 3 CVEs are present. The Royal Navy is not accounted for, and I suppose the US has a number of additional CVEs that are not accounted for as well. Nevertheless, this is the main allied effort.

Tomorrow I have ordered naval attacks by small groups of Helens that, hopefully, will be escorted by Tojo Sentai's. The Hellcats proved to be quite effective against my Zero's (although there were not that many). I am hopeful that the Tojos can put in a more credible performance. The goal here will be to wear down the CV CAP. I am flying at 25k feet, so hopefully some of the altitude advantage will not show up. Unfortunately, there is no way to just do a straight sweep over a naval target, so I have to face the CAP advantage over escorts.

KB is 4-5 days away.