The Shattered Sword: John 3rd vs. Anachro--BTS

[Canoerebel]

The AV is the total value in the hex, including units not involved in the attack. The attack was by one (or two or three) very small units. Enemy counterbattery fire may have destroyed one or two small units, even if they didn't attack.

[John 3rd]

Makes sense but is a waste of supply.

To be safe I re-combined all my Infantry Divisions!

[Canoerebel]

Why is it a waste of supply? He needed the info and deemed it worth the supply expenditure and the lost units.

[HansBolter]

What he learned is that he has over twice your raw AV.

Unless your forts are at least level 6, as soon as he recovers disruption and fatigue he will start making gains.

Do JFBs think to build forts at Chunking once they take it or is doing so too much of a drain on resources?

[RangerJoe]

What happens when the "assault collapses" is that the units are wiped out so one of the numbers would be zero when computing the odds. That is what happened. By wiping out the units, they come back with infantry and support - but probably no other devices.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

What he learned is that he has over twice your raw AV.

Unless your forts are at least level 6, as soon as he recovers disruption and fatigue he will start making gains.

Do JFBs think to build forts at Chunking once they take it or is doing so too much of a drain on resources?

Nope. The Chinese are over-stacked in the hex. He has very little in the way of Forts due to a continuous bombing campaign. Every supply producing center he has is mine and/or bombed out. His AFs are at or near 100% damage. CAP flies over each of those crippled AFs. What he has is what he has.

Agreed that launching an attack demonstrates what is present but that supply is not coming back with any rapidity.

[RangerJoe]

I think that Chungking starts with level 6 forts.

[Canoerebel]

Information can be more important than supply. Using a bit to better gauge the situation and its possibilities is critical. Don't be so quick to think your opponent made a mistake. He probably didn't.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Information can be more important than supply. Using a bit to better gauge the situation and its possibilities is critical. Don't be so quick to think your opponent made a mistake. He probably didn't.

OK. I'll trust your judgement here Dan. He bombarded this turn and got a big fat ZERO for the effort. We'll watch and see what is on his mind.

Thanks TO YOU---China scares the tar out of me...

[John 3rd]

July 2, 1943
Cape Gloucester

My trusty opponent took umbrage a couple of game turn weeks ago when I compared this assault into New Guinea, New Ireland, and Bougainville as a possible repeat of the Sumatra Campaign that Dan and I had. He strongly protested it but I am not so sure.

Captured Bases from that Allied Operation: Torokina, Lae, Cape Gloucester, Hansa Bay, and Manus.

Last week Lae was recaptured inflicting 9,000 Cas upon the enemy.

TODAY we see Cape Gloucester fall to a 30-1 Shock Attack by Japan! Elements of four units surrender to the victorious Japanese Infantry Brigade. Japan takes 71 Cas while the Allies lose 2040 Cas, 16 Guns, and 166 Vehicles.

BANZAI!

OK. It isn't a lot but those are real losses.

The base had about 80-90 Fighters on LRCAP to keep the enemy 4EB from trying to help. It was then attacked by dozens of Betty, Nell, IJA 2EB, TB, DB, and 4EB. At the end of the day--sitting in broad daylight--BB's Yamato and Musashi casually stroll back-and-forth lobbing shells into the Allied perimeter inflicting over 200 Cas, destroying 7 Guns, and disabling 30 Vehicles. Solid work.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Information can be more important than supply. Using a bit to better gauge the situation and its possibilities is critical. Don't be so quick to think your opponent made a mistake. He probably didn't.

OK. I'll trust your judgement here Dan. He bombarded this turn and got a big fat ZERO for the effort. We'll watch and see what is on his mind.

Thanks TO YOU---China scares the tar out of me...

[John 3rd]

You ask about the other bases listed above?

Tomorrow will see two full strength Japanese IDs enter the Hansa Bay hex. I do believe that all I face is an Aussie Brigade with support units. He hasn't expanded the Port or AF so I have to believe that his work has been on Forts. Will bet they are at 2 or 3 at this point. Should be pretty easy to reduce with the help of a few bombardments.

Manus is facing a full-on counter invasion with 3 Japanese ID. One ID is at Kavieng with Prep at 42%. The second ID is arriving at Kavieng tomorrow. The last ID is coming up from Lunga. The three, combined, will be just under the 35,000 stacking limit of the target.

If the enemy does not interfere, Hansa will fall first and we'll land at Kavieng by mid-month. Figure early-August to kill those units if we do not get trouble from the Allies. HUGE IF!

To make any form of interference much more difficult, I am lifting two CD units and bringing another 500 mines to block off the transit point between New Guinea and New Ireland. Those should be in place in about 7-10 days.

[John 3rd]

July 3, 1943
Kavieng

The enemy has been well known for sending small TFs out looking to get in among a Japanese convoy. IT has worked on several occasions. NOT TODAY! Five American DDs enter the waters of Kavieng only to find a number of heavy Japanese warships embedded within a convoy.

The fight is a DAY battle where the Japanese open fire at 27,000 Yds. The BB and CB hit early and often. Four of the five are sunk during the engagement while the crippled USS Case staggers away only to be sunk by 3 500Kg Bombs from five Judy's in the morning.

SCRATCH FIVE US DDs. I know that isn't much compared to the monthly build but I shall take it and smile this turn!

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

What he learned is that he has over twice your raw AV.

Unless your forts are at least level 6, as soon as he recovers disruption and fatigue he will start making gains.

Do JFBs think to build forts at Chunking once they take it or is doing so too much of a drain on resources?

Nope. The Chinese are over-stacked in the hex. He has very little in the way of Forts due to a continuous bombing campaign. Every supply producing center he has is mine and/or bombed out. His AFs are at or near 100% damage. CAP flies over each of those crippled AFs. What he has is what he has.

Agreed that launching an attack demonstrates what is present but that supply is not coming back with any rapidity.

Apologies. I was confused and thought he was attempting to retake the hex from you and was wondering what level your forts are at. Didn't realize he still holds the base.

If you are playing with stacking limits everywhere as I do, then yes, his over stacking will prevent timely recovery of fatigue and disruption and the lack of any incoming supply may be sufficient to reduce his attack value.

If you are not playing with stacking limits everywhere, then only the lack of supply will have an impact.

[John 3rd]

No problem. My troops have surrounded the city (except the SW corner) and have dug in to Lvl 4 almost 5. He bombarded for the 3rd day in a row. It doesn't make much sense to do that considering the situation.

The entire Chinese Front is fluid for the first time in over 12 months. We'll see how that plays out.

[John 3rd]

July 3, 1943
Bay of Bengal

Stated a few days ago that Sean's next major move will undoubtedly be against Burma--Malaya--Sumatra.

This is a map of the Bay of Bengal. There are Japanese Infantry Divisions (BLACK) along the coast at Akyab, Ramree, Rangoon and Moulmein. An reinforced ID sits at Port Blair. Brigades (GREY) are in the interior of Burma. There are Air HQ currently at Rangoon and Port Blair.

Supply is a little sketchy but not too bad. Have two major TF carrying a total of 70,000 supplies moving into the area after stopping at Singapore.

[John 3rd]

July 3, 1943
Malaya--North/Central Sumatra

Continuing South...

There are two Infantry Divisions at both Singapore and Sabang. Brigades at Victoria Point, Georgetown, and all the bases going down the west coast of Sumatra. Air HQ at Victoria Point, Sabang, and Singapore.

Major units are moving to garrison Trinkat and Great Nicobar as well as buttress the bases along the interior side of Sumatra (Langssa south) and edges of Malaya. Any base along the west side of Sumatra that could go Lvl-9 is getting troops.

A total of 5 Brigades/Regiments, engineers, a few Base Forces as well as three more Air HQ are all at sea moving into this area. Nearly every base that currently has troops is at Lvl-4, 5 or 6.

[John 3rd]

July 3, 1943
Sumatra--Java

OK. Last slide.

Once again, 2 IDs at Singapore and 1 at Soerabaja. Brigades/Regiments at all bases circled in GREY. Air HQ at Singapore and Soerabaja.

This is where a good chunk of reinforcements are going. Air HQ moving to Medan, Georgetown, and Palembang. Engineers and a Brigade moving to add to the totals already along the west coast of Sumatra.

[John 3rd]

So what are going to fight with?

Barring a major transfer of Carrier power from the South Pacific, all the Allies will have is a few CVE. Japan will field CarDiv1 and 2: Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, and Hiryu. There will also be five CVE available. I was sending CarDiv1 to Truk but decided the opportunity for a stronger victory sat to the west. Four Fleet Carriers plus the CVE should be able to absolutely maul anything that tries the seaborne invasion route.

Am re-arranging my Air Search assets so that there are no surprises. Am also moving more airpower into the region. Goal is to have a mobile LBA component of 150 Fighters, 80 or so Betty/Nell, 75+ DB, and 75+ TB. With Lae and Cape Gloucester captured and Hansa Bay about to invested, I am able to begin this two turns ago.

OPTIONS
How will the enemy come? The BEST way from his point-of-view would be along the Burma Coast where he can move under LBA. The more daring would be a seaborne move to Port Blair or Sumatra. That would be pretty gutsy. It would appeal to Sean. We'll see if caution or daring wins out.

The enemy will have available a BUNCH of troops. When Trincomalee fell there were 4 ID and 4 Brigades/Regiments involved. Figure that he starts with that and adds a couple more ID. Pretty serious ground force.

He'll have some Naval Air but not much and whole BUNCH of slow-moving BBs.

Time
To get everything in place on the ground, Japan needs 2 weeks or so. The Naval and Air Sides will be set within 5-7 days.

Japan wants to crush him while at sea. If he comes along the Burma Coast that won't be very possible but a seaborne assault would be GREAT! We want a victory in a BIG way!

[RangerJoe]

Don't forget that Pegu is also a port. Granted that there are airfields in the vicinity, but guard it well.