Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

7/11/42 to 8/14/42

Burma: Dave drove the Allied army out, so this sector is mostly quiet. Allied air is working on Magwe and the Long March continues.

[Bif1961]

Looks like the survivors of the Aussie 6th Division will marry the widows from the 7th.

[Canoerebel]

That sounds like a good song in the making.

[Canoerebel]

7/11/42 to 8/14/42

Singapore: No enemy attack here since March 31. Erik's troops are bombarding and he has a couple-hundred aircraft bombing/escorting each day at 30k. They're having an impact on supply, but not enough to make a major difference.

[Uncivil Engineer]

My 2 cents - you still hold Singapore and Wenchow in mid-August 42, you won! He should be starting a counteroffensive at Guadalcanal, but he's still slugging it out elsewhere. In my experience if the Japanese allow Wenchow to be reinforced early on, they will have extreme difficulty taking the base. As he's finding out ! His units fighting for Wenchow will be severely degraded before he's successful there.

As for Singapore, I'll have to go back and reread this AAR to see what you did (or he didn't) that allowed you to hang on this long. Well done.

[Canoerebel]

All Allied units made it to Singers from up the peninsula, and ships brought supply up to 200k before Dave established a blockade. And, his first attack back on March 31 got beat up badly. He's only tried one another (on May 30).

[Canoerebel]

8/15/42 to 8/24/42

No enemy ground attacks during this ten-day period. Dave's getting ready here and there but it's taking a long time.

China: No changes in the MLR whatsoever. Erik has reinforced at Wenchow - he has 2000 AV vs. 1300 AV. His ships bombard frequently. Allied subs attack from time to time with dud torpedoes or misses. And we wait to see what happens.

Burma: No changes in the MLR. Erik is once again bombing the jungle-remnant of 7th Aus. Div., which is cut off and will eventually die. 6th Aus. Div. remnant will reach Kunming in a day or two.

Singapore: No attacks here. Dave is vigorously contesting Allied sub-supply runs. He's sunk or damaged a bunch of boats but supply remains at 64k. Supply might last into October.

The Vast Pacific: No enemy movements to speak of from Oz through the Line Islands to the Aleutians. The Allies are mainly working to build defenses in the Aleutians, around Luganville, and in Western Oz. Enemy subs are heavily patrolling off Perth.

[Canoerebel]

It's too soon for another post, but SigInt on 8/27 caught my eye.

P.S. In the past ten days, USN subs lurking off Wenchow have scored dud hits against CA Furutaka and BB Yamashiro.

[jwolf]

Dan, your Sigint comments bring some questions to mind. I assume an experienced Japanese player would know the 54th is restricted as you say, but is this info something an "average" Allied player would know? Or is it something the real US intel knew during the war? Well I guess that's a bad question because this game feature is not literal to the real war. What I am really trying to ask is how realistic it is that an Allied player could smoke out fake prep like this, assuming that is what it really is.

[Lokasenna]

But can it be bought out?

Vizagapatnam is a key air transfer base for Ceylon to Burma, at least for some folks...

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, the Allied player needs to use Viz or Coconado to get Hurricanes from Ceylon to Akyab (or vice versa) with just a single stop in between. If those two bases aren't available, then it's a two-stop process. But that's not that big a deal in the overall scheme of things. Did you have a larger reason for mentioning it, Loka. Something that I might've overlooked?

P.S. I don't think Dave is coming for eastern India, though I've spent months preparing for that possibility and many others.

[BBfanboy]

I think there is an Imperial Guards Brigade in addition to the IG Division. Could it be that the Brigade is at Pt. Blair or was at Georgetown?

[Canoerebel]

My post for the 6/2/42 to 6/6/42 turn included a SigInt graphic with IG Division at Georgetown. So I think all of my comments have been correct - that it is the division.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/15/42 to 8/24/42

No enemy ground attacks during this ten-day period. Dave's getting ready here and there but it's taking a long time.

China: No changes in the MLR whatsoever. Erik has reinforced at Wenchow - he has 2000 AV vs. 1300 AV. His ships bombard frequently. Allied subs attack from time to time with dud torpedoes or misses. And we wait to see what happens.

Burma: No changes in the MLR. Erik is once again bombing the jungle-remnant of 7th Aus. Div., which is cut off and will eventually die. 6th Aus. Div. remnant will reach Kunming in a day or two.

Singapore: No attacks here. Dave is vigorously contesting Allied sub-supply runs. He's sunk or damaged a bunch of boats but supply remains at 64k. Supply might last into October.

The Vast Pacific: No enemy movements to speak of from Oz through the Line Islands to the Aleutians. The Allies are mainly working to build defenses in the Aleutians, around Luganville, and in Western Oz. Enemy subs are heavily patrolling off Perth.

Uh oh. Suffering from AE overload? [:)]

Cheers,
CB

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, the Allied player needs to use Viz or Coconado to get Hurricanes from Ceylon to Akyab (or vice versa) with just a single stop in between. If those two bases aren't available, then it's a two-stop process. But that's not that big a deal in the overall scheme of things. Did you have a larger reason for mentioning it, Loka. Something that I might've overlooked?

P.S. I don't think Dave is coming for eastern India, though I've spent months preparing for that possibility and many others.

Was just mentioning it in case he was also aware of it being a key airfield transfer base. Colombo to Viza, Viza to Calcutta or Burma. Without the airfield there, you have to go to Madras first...

It's also not a terrible spot to land to try to isolate Calcutta, but would need to be part of a much large operation. Like, if you were pushing for SE India without taking Ceylon. I don't know why you wouldn't just grab Ceylon, though.

Probably misdirection.

[Canoerebel]

Veteran players know all this stuff, but here's my India threat assessment:

Ninety percent of Japanese invasions of India proper begin at Viz/Coconada or Chittagong/Cox's Bazaar. Usually the objective is limited - taking Calcutta to harvest is resources for awhile, and pocketing and destroying as much of the Burma/Commonwealth units as possible. Full-scale invasions of the subcontinent are much rarer and generally take place between Bombay and Karachi. Most of the time, these invasions should take place in early '42, while the Allies are still weak, scattered, and subject to panic.

In my game, we've just turned the calendar to September 1942. I don't think Dave has any feel for whether the Allies have strongly reinforced India or not. He's not engaged in any activities in this region. Nor has he engaged in activities in Oz or elsewhere that might lead him to believe that he might've caught the Allies leaning one way or another. By the autumn of '42, the Allies can be much stronger. An invasion of India at this date under these conditions would be improvident.

Ceylon only has a modest garrison of Indian brigades, so it would be vulnerable to a largescale invasion. However, the Allied air forces and navies in this region are strong. Dave would have to commit his full KB to a venture this way.

Now it so happens that I haven't stuffed India full of troops. It's strong and getting stronger, but if he guessed right and pulled the trigger despite the dearth of information he has, he might accomplish a few things.

But my guess is that he isn't coming, except possibly for Ceylon or the Akyab/Cox's Bazaar area.

[Lokasenna]

Hrm. That is definitely not the strategy I would take for invading even "just" the Calcutta/Assam area. I'd want Ceylon to put a nice strong deterrent against seaborne interdiction and general Allied chicanery. Especially if the campaign for Calcutta bogs down at all.

I would need to refamiliarize myself with the western India map, but I'm not convinced I would invade between Bombay and Karachi there either, if going for Total India. Maybe though.

[Canoerebel]

I didn't make myself clear (as usual, as always!). Yes, most India campaigns should and do open with an invasion of Ceylon. Once Ceylon is taken, then the landings generally take place at Viz vicinity or Cox's vicinity.

There might be other places to land in a campaign to take India in total, but the two coastal bases between Bombay and Karachi are vulnerable - open terrain and usually lightly defended or undefended.

[Canoerebel]

8/25/42 to 9/12/42

China: No change in the MLR. Dave has attacked twice at Wenchow, both times at 1:2 odds, both times dropping forts (now 2), and both times suffering lopsided disablements. He has a ton of artillery here and an army of nearly 100k. He's bombarding with three BB TFs, often in the same day. Wenchow has sucked up a ton of attention for months. From that perspective it's been wonderful. But knowing that his powerful army will be free, perhaps within the month, to move against the real MLR and probably punch a hole in it is daunting. I don't have a real reserve anywhere, but I've shifted a few units from strongpoints into interior positions. China has been remarkably stable for many months. That's not going to last.

Burma: The Long March ended at Kunming. The 6th Aussie Div. cadre reached there and then marched to the airfield to the north (Tsyung?), from whence they were extracted by Dakotas flying from Ledo. Now the cadre is enroute to join the division at Madras. That's 200 AV saved from sure destruction. Meanwhile, the 7th Div. cadre remains isolated in the jungle. Dave has the escape routes cut off and bombs occasionally. Hey, this is taking units and aircraft that could be used elsewhere.

Singapore: Supply just dropped to 49k. The sub supply runs continue - they take a fair bit of damage but none have been sunk in the past many weeks. P-38Es came in from Chittagong and savaged some Sallys and Helens. Then, a few days later, Avengers came in from Colombo. Unfortunately, they targeted nimble DDs on ASW patrol without accomplishing anything. But it was a fun idea.

SEAC: Allied success (in maintaining status quo) in China and Singapore cry for action in this theater. I'm thinking and accumulating forces but don't have a definite plan or timetable yet. I'm sure Dave is aware that I invaded Sumatra on 12/10/42 in my game vs. John III. I don't want to overextend myself trying to relieve pressure on those two places or by trying to take advantage of their status as Allied-held territory. So the thinking will continue.

SWPac and SoPac: No signs of enemy activity here, other than the occasional sub near Luganville, Noumea or Pago Pago. I've reinforced some islands but I'm not particularly strong at any one place.

CenPac: Quiet. The main activity is fort building at Midway. It's at about 5.45. When and if it reaches 6, I'll strongly consider swapping out engineers and emplacing a tank unit in their place.

NoPac: No enemy unit has every appeared in the Aleutians region. The only thing of note has been the frequent SigInt (almost certainly decoys) of two divisions prepping for Anchorage. I'm working hard to build and reinforce a bases from Anchorage to Adak Island. Things are beginning to flesh out a bit now. If Dave doesn't come by winter, the Allies are going to be very strong by the time spring rolls around. A strong position in the Aleutians is always a dagger pointed at the Kuriles, whether or not the Allied player chooses to thrust in that direction. So the activity in the Aleutians is among the most important things ongoing, from my perspective.

[Canoerebel]

9/13/42 to 9/19/42

China: Wenchow suddenly and alarmingly gave up the ghost. The base fell on a 3:1 assault on the 16th. That was only the third enemy attack. I expected to hold there another week or two. The Chinese army retreated to the best possible hex, giving me some opportunities for fleeing and, most importantly, keeping tabs on where the Japanese army might head over the next four to eight turns or so. That's going to be critical information, even though I'm not sure I can do anything to stop it from punching a hole in my MLR somewhere or other.

Singapore: Supply down to 46k. Dave has the Malacca Strait choked with ASW TFs. Those are damaging (but usually not sinking) my subs, requiring many to spend time in the yards. The lightly or moderately-damaged subs that reach Singapore return to Colombo. The heavily damaged ones move on to Perth, because the Java Sea isn't guarded by ASW. I don't think Dave is aware that I'm doing this. But Perth is so far away that supply runs are comparatively inefficient.

NoPac: 37th Div. is in the process of moving to Anchorage (or Whittier), the capstone to the line of defenses ranging all the way to Adak Island. The other islands generally have a RCT, an arty unit, and an engineering unit. Most forts are at 4 or 5. Those are decent but not insurmountable defenses. Winter is 40 days away.