Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: morejeffs

Is Nemo still around? I remember reading his AARs and just been blown away/intimidated by all the thought he put into planning...

Nemo had a good grasp of the theoretical side of things, but I seem to remember his AAR's having a fair share of drama. Plus, he mostly played (or at least AAR'd) the Downfall scenario, and I seem to remember that the only GC game he played from the start was against someone who was hopelessly mismatched against him in terms of skill level.

For me, I think the gold standard for AE should be getting a game to the point where the Victory screen pops up in 1945 or later.

These are some of his AARs

tm.asp?m=3310813&mpage=1&key=

tm.asp?m=2806201&mpage=1&key=

tm.asp?m=2330017&mpage=1&key=ooda%2Cloop

tm.asp?m=2606897&mpage=1&key=kamikaze

tm.asp?m=2706264&mpage=1&key=kamikaze



For a discussion on strategy, see

tm.asp?m=2917182&mpage=1&key=ooda%2Cloop


He had a relatively short career in AE. Cut short by a serious and quite intentional OPSEC breach by a third party who remains very prominent in the Modders sub forum. Nemo121's reputation was mainly established with classical WITP. In AE he often made very long posts in Canoerebel's and GreyJoy's AAR. Other AARs he often contributed to included one's by jrcar and crackaces.

Alfred

Edit: Yeah ... success at getting multiple hyperlinks in the one post.

[Lowpe]

China looks pretty strong...still cleaning up the dribs and drabs, most are 1 unit Chinese forces.

Divisions, and Artillery blocking the Chinese east of Kunming. One day he will come east with hordes of Chinese, but I have artillery, good terrain, and dug in troops. He may attempt a move swarming off road, but given the timing, I think that would be a win for me too.

I have moved a lot of forces to either Shanghai to be bought out for Honshu defense or to Hong Kong/Canton to defend against a Thailand breakout or possible American invasions of the coast.

[morejeffs]

Alfred. Thank you for that in depth explanation...One question though..what is an OPSEC breach? Sorry for the cluelessness

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: morejeffs

Alfred. Thank you for that in depth explanation...One question though..what is an OPSEC breach? Sorry for the cluelessness

Complete details of Nemo's dispositions and plans, as disclosed in his AAR, were passed on to his opponent by this third party. The third party justified his actions by accusing Nemo of cheating and IIRC looking at his opponent's AAR. As far as the third party was concerned, he was of the view that Nemo only achieved his great game successes by cheating and this justified the third party's breach of OPSEC.

If you read the links I provided you will see the complete story.

Alfred

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Problem is, he can't shut down Honshu's economy from Hokkaido alone, at least not in 1944. He can hurt it, can't destroy it. At least I don't think so. We will see, I guess!

Depends on how he handles his bombers. If he husbands them, he definitely can. It doesn't look like he is doing so.

If it were me with forces on Hokkaido here.... I'd be bombing and bombing and bombing. B-25s, B-24s, TBFs, SBDs... starting in the north and going right on down Honshu. I don't need these units to harvest the VPs in the Pacific either, now that you're focused on defending Japan itself. Easy pickings.

He gets B-29s soon too.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: morejeffs

Alfred. Thank you for that in depth explanation...One question though..what is an OPSEC breach? Sorry for the cluelessness

Complete details of Nemo's dispositions and plans, as disclosed in his AAR, were passed on to his opponent by this third party. The third party justified his actions by accusing Nemo of cheating and IIRC looking at his opponent's AAR. As far as the third party was concerned, he was of the view that Nemo only achieved his great game successes by cheating and this justified the third party's breach of OPSEC.

If you read the links I provided you will see the complete story.

Alfred

It was a sad time on our forum ... CanoeRebel (The originator of the Fortress Palembang Strategy I believe ...)
was also accused of "cheating" in that he used small unarmed ships as pickets he has not posted since ... not a good thing for societies to
shutdown free thought as we never know what knowledge and experience we have lost

Myself .. I just block the idiots at my own peril ...

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Problem is, he can't shut down Honshu's economy from Hokkaido alone, at least not in 1944. He can hurt it, can't destroy it. At least I don't think so. We will see, I guess!

Depends on how he handles his bombers. If he husbands them, he definitely can. It doesn't look like he is doing so.

If it were me with forces on Hokkaido here.... I'd be bombing and bombing and bombing. B-25s, B-24s, TBFs, SBDs... starting in the north and going right on down Honshu. I don't need these units to harvest the VPs in the Pacific either, now that you're focused on defending Japan itself. Easy pickings.

He gets B-29s soon too.

In 1945 yes. Not now. B29s will arrive, but not in great numbers. They will hurt, but less than what you think, I think.[;)]

I have a feeling, that he is going to use his 4Es in a ground role to support an invasion of Honshu ultimately.

[Crackaces]

now that you're focused on defending Japan itself. Easy pickings.

I'm not the most experienced at this game . I have only 3 contests to the end plus one that I had with njp72 that ended early because of my work obligations.
But I would contend that the best Allied operational policy is to attack where the IJ are not ... although this situation is unique in that the IJ have lost the fleet in being ..
But my current thought is that the "Hokkaido Hurricane" approach (a sudden invasion from the blue into Hokkaido)
leads to a WWI battle of attrition that the Allies find constrained .. the real OOB boost do not come until 1945.

Basically the Allies force a situation where they concentrate against everything the IJ has to this point at one location ..
The 1944 OOB although growing is not generally supportive of this strategy ... again this game is a little different but it will be interesting



EDIT: Thus the use of Hokkaido to focus IJ forces on the home islands while the Allies attack everywhere else might be the best operational strategy ..

[Bullwinkle58]

Sumatra and Java . . .

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

now that you're focused on defending Japan itself. Easy pickings.

I'm not the most experienced at this game . I have only 3 contests to the end plus one that I had with njp72 that ended early because of my work obligations.
But I would contend that the best Allied operational policy is to attack where the IJ are not ... although this situation is unique in that the IJ have lost the fleet in being ..
But my current thought is that the "Hokkaido Hurricane" approach (a sudden invasion from the blue into Hokkaido)
leads to a WWI battle of attrition that the Allies find constrained .. the real OOB boost do not come until 1945.

Basically the Allies force a situation where they concentrate against everything the IJ has to this point at one location ..
The 1944 OOB although growing is not generally supportive of this strategy ... again this game is a little different but it will be interesting



EDIT: Thus the use of Hokkaido to focus IJ forces on the home islands while the Allies attack everywhere else might be the best operational strategy ..

Don't know about 'best' or not, but otherwise this is exactly what I've been thinking during this discussion.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


In 1945 yes. Not now. B29s will arrive, but not in great numbers. They will hurt, but less than what you think, I think.[;)]

I have a feeling, that he is going to use his 4Es in a ground role to support an invasion of Honshu ultimately.

You should look at the number of B-29 units that arrive in 1944. It's not trivial at all. Between 300-400 airframes for "free" plus pools. With B-29s you need to guard a huge swath of industry. Harbin anyone? The bomb loads on B-29s make night bombing very effective.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


In 1945 yes. Not now. B29s will arrive, but not in great numbers. They will hurt, but less than what you think, I think.[;)]

I have a feeling, that he is going to use his 4Es in a ground role to support an invasion of Honshu ultimately.

You should look at the number of B-29 units that arrive in 1944. It's not trivial at all. Between 300-400 airframes for "free" plus pools. With B-29s you need to guard a huge swath of industry. Harbin anyone? The bomb loads on B-29s make night bombing very effective.

Didn't mean to imply it is trivial at all.[:)] But not the hand-moaning end of the world. That will come in 45.

It is 150 by the end of July, then an additional 200 by the end of Dec, Dec is a bad month with next B29 also coming online.

But my goal is to make 45 without AV.

Harbin is in range now, albeit extended range. I believe I have 60 fighters there now. Think Port Arthur, Hong Kong, Shanghai etc.

A while back I posted that my second or third biggest threat is that the B29s force me to make a much greater dispersal of my fighter strength. But then again, there is the chance he flies them right into Osaka during the daytime instead of nailing lesser defended locations.

I have a fair amount of experience flying B29s and other HB from my Downfall game with MM. I think I will be able to make 45...barring a successful land invasion of Honshu/Korea/China.

[witpqs]

B-24 and even smaller bomber on Hokkaido is bad enough, plus B-29 on Hokkaido - is there any major Home Island industrial center which they can not reach with full bomb load? With the first (lesser-ranged) B-29 model in 1944 based in the Marianas they can only reach a portion of the Home Islands and all at extended range.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


In 1945 yes. Not now. B29s will arrive, but not in great numbers. They will hurt, but less than what you think, I think.[;)]

I have a feeling, that he is going to use his 4Es in a ground role to support an invasion of Honshu ultimately.

You should look at the number of B-29 units that arrive in 1944. It's not trivial at all. Between 300-400 airframes for "free" plus pools. With B-29s you need to guard a huge swath of industry. Harbin anyone? The bomb loads on B-29s make night bombing very effective.

Didn't mean to imply it is trivial at all.[:)] But not the hand-moaning end of the world. That will come in 45.

It is 150 by the end of July, then an additional 200 by the end of Dec, Dec is a bad month with next B29 also coming online.

But my goal is to make 45 without AV.

Harbin is in range now, albeit extended range. I believe I have 60 fighters there now. Think Port Arthur, Hong Kong, Shanghai etc.

A while back I posted that my second or third biggest threat is that the B29s force me to make a much greater dispersal of my fighter strength. But then again, there is the chance he flies them right into Osaka during the daytime instead of nailing lesser defended locations.

I have a fair amount of experience flying B29s and other HB from my Downfall game with MM. I think I will be able to make 45...barring a successful land invasion of Honshu/Korea/China.

Do B-29s not begin to arrive in 4/44 in your game? Because they do in mine...

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

now that you're focused on defending Japan itself. Easy pickings.

I'm not the most experienced at this game . I have only 3 contests to the end plus one that I had with njp72 that ended early because of my work obligations.
But I would contend that the best Allied operational policy is to attack where the IJ are not ... although this situation is unique in that the IJ have lost the fleet in being ..
But my current thought is that the "Hokkaido Hurricane" approach (a sudden invasion from the blue into Hokkaido)
leads to a WWI battle of attrition that the Allies find constrained .. the real OOB boost do not come until 1945.

Basically the Allies force a situation where they concentrate against everything the IJ has to this point at one location ..
The 1944 OOB although growing is not generally supportive of this strategy ... again this game is a little different but it will be interesting



EDIT: Thus the use of Hokkaido to focus IJ forces on the home islands while the Allies attack everywhere else might be the best operational strategy ..

Don't know about 'best' or not, but otherwise this is exactly what I've been thinking during this discussion.

That's exactly what I was referring to as well. And with so much of the IJNAF and IJAAF now defending Honshu, he can conduct whirlwind amphibious operations all over the rest of the map. Luzon (well, Manila) is worth buckets of VPs for the Allies, as is Singapore.

Java isn't worth so many VPs, but could be useful in getting to Singapore if he comes from that direction rather than from the Andamans.

[Lowpe]

SRA is fairly abandoned. Not true for Luzon.

I get another 49 plane squadron of Franks tomorrow for reinforcements. Iwo Jima is slightly overstacked at 31K defenders. I will shift via air some of the defense somewhere...Honshu, Okinawa, Japanese Islands.

There is a 4th Allied TF of carriers at Kushiro too, now.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

One way to confront the CV Death Star is by ignoring it and attacking where is he vulnerable elsewhere? Like one japanese carrier roaming the Indian Ocean could clean up a few convoys because he's concentrated too much strength in the Death Star? This is a bit of the hybrid war strategy employed overseas right now. If your enemy's mass is too powerful, spread out and attack all over, offsetting his victories in one area? Obviously more easily done in 1942-1943 than in 1944-45 by the japanese, but of consideration.

By the way, my map of Burma/Thailand is a mirror image of your's in my PBEM game. I'm withdrawing as the Japanese as best i can, using the terrain as you said. I think the Burma offensive gives a feeling of victory to the Allies, but its
really time consuming and probably unlikely to take Singapore or create a meaningful link with the Chinese. It does doom your SRA oil resources though.



On another note, small, unarmed ships WERE used as pickets by the Japanese off the mainland. That seems a realistic usage of ships to me. They usually are sunk by subs or US destroyer pickets.

[Crackaces]

By the way, my map of Burma/Thailand is a mirror image of your's in my PBEM game.
I'm withdrawing as the Japanese as best i can, using the terrain as you said.
I think the Burma offensive gives a feeling of victory to the Allies,
but its really time consuming and probably unlikely to take Singapore or create a meaningful link with the Chinese.
It does doom your SRA oil resources though.

A competent and determined Allied assault in Burma is tough to stop .. I have pulled this off twice
The Key is US Armor .. it does not take much .. 2 divisions at the right point with sufficient airpower and the IJA cannot resist ..

Both offenses linked to China in 1944 the second one took the heart April 1944 ..

In the first offense I first struck at the Marshalls while building up bases on the India/Burma border then a blitzkrieg with Allied Armor ..
In the second game a repeat lots of feints at the Marshals and Solomman's with an early landing on Ramree island
and the Armor/air power again makes a hole in the IJ Jungle line with a sudden collapse of the front ...

One problem the IJ player had was buying out destroyed units from the Burmese Campaign .. it sucked his supplies dry

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

By the way, my map of Burma/Thailand is a mirror image of your's in my PBEM game.
I'm withdrawing as the Japanese as best i can, using the terrain as you said.
I think the Burma offensive gives a feeling of victory to the Allies,
but its really time consuming and probably unlikely to take Singapore or create a meaningful link with the Chinese.
It does doom your SRA oil resources though.

A competent and determined Allied assault in Burma is tough to stop .. I have pulled this off twice
The Key is US Armor .. it does not take much .. 2 divisions at the right point with sufficient airpower and the IJA cannot resist ..

+1. He almost had me here in Burma with his tank army...it was very,very close.

If the Allies can break thru to the plains it is game over and back to the Vinh line. Heck, he might have me now depending how much he is concentrating his forces.

I think an Allied strategy aimed at getting tanks into the central plains of Thailand is very hard to counter.

[Lowpe]

Got the turn away, couldn't flip it yesterday as I went to a picnic and fireworks.

Fireworks were the best I have ever seen, the opening, done to the voice recording of the Apollo lift off was great with a huge flaming fireball rising from the ground that turned into a huge black smokering hovering over the exploding starshells. Looked alien, plus there was a drone flying into and out of the fireworks from our vantage point. Very different.

Anyhow, pretty much just worked on moving troops and organizing. Pondering how to counter the deathstar from hide and cower, to confront a hundred different ways to, to invading Marcus Island or striking at Hokkaido.

A few attacks in China this turn. Two days away from striking at Mergui. He has 200 planes, a decent bombardment, followed up with a sweep and some bombing runs might put a real hurt on him there. Only 50 fighters, half of which are Jugs that sweep every day. The others are souped up Spitfires, which are darn tough!