Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[ny59giants]

To: D.Heywood - the under-secretary to the under-secretary of the advisor to the Minister.

From: Economics Minister

Re: WitP Chart

First, I would like to point out that your extra effort has not gone unnoticed and when the Minister (me) starts his own game against the War Minister (John), you may need a title change (less "unders" and maybe a few "overs"). When reading your title at the end, I had a small chuckle as I thought of the play on word in the cockpit during the classic movie "Airplane." [:D]

Second, the Minister usually has underlings do the charts (its below my level of dignity). Thus, it is broken up into two screenshots. Maybe someone can kindly show the Minister how to post more than one screenshot per post and/or how to get the whole WitP Chart into one screenshot. [;)] I'm using Triscape FxFoto for screenshots and if there is an easier "free" program to run, I'm willing to convert.

As a side note, the under-secretary might want to change some of the pastel colors as they are hard on the eyes of the Minister. [;)]

Minister Benoit

[ny59giants]

Part two

The Minister finally broke down and bought a 22" LCD monitor over the weekend. So it should help his eyes when it arrives!!

[rtrapasso]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Something has chewing on my brain since this whole crazy set of landings commenced and now Michael has brought it into focus. CAN you use a Size-1 Port to replenish CV and BB? I had always ASSUMED that you couldn't. This is why you cannot disband a TF until you get to a minimum anchorage of 3.

The entire American Fleet moved to Tori Shima on the 2nd and stayed there...

If you can then this changes the WHOLE thing and alters the attitude I have been working under. He can refuel, rearm, replenish, and replace losses indefinately. If so, what a load of crap! [8|][8|][8|]

Please---someone tell me one way or the other...

short answer: yes he can rearm and refuel EVERYTHING in one turn at such a level 1 port...

Does it even need to be a port? i have a feeling it can be done at a "dot" base if there are enough supplies... of course, there is going to be a huge amount of "spoilage" but the USN could probably handle it.

[Cap Mandrake]

When this is all over, I would say the residents of Chichi Jima are going to be in BIG trouble when the Emperor finds out they stockpiled tens of thousands of gallons of aviation fuel just so the Mayor could use his ride-behind lawn mower on the City Hall lawn. [:-]

[ny59giants]

Due to the input of the under-over-under-secretary of the advisor to the Minister and others, the following changes have been put in place to "try" to get this economy running within accepted parameters.

With the Oil being at 2151 x 6 = 12906; I round up to 13000 for easier figuring. [;)]
HI is currently at 15150 and thus I need to reduce HI by about 2150. All repairing and/or expanding HI centers were stopped, I hope. But I will follow up after the next update and what WitPTracker tells me.

HI production was turned off at: Toyohara (16), Australia (430), Anshan (120), Akita (120), Aomori 9120), Hamamatsu (600), Takamatsu (600), and Hong Kong (150) for a total savings of 2156.

Production was turned of for: Merchant Shipbuilding at Kyoto (160 x 3 = 480); all of HI in Australia (430); Naval Building at Sendai (16 x 3 = 48); and Mitsubishi Engines at Matsue (80 x 18 = 1440) for a savings of 2131. I think this is area of adjustment I did incorrectly, so some more experienced "economic minister" will need to point out the errors of my ways.

Naval Shipbuilding had all remaining subs halted and then the DDs being build with a delay of less than 110 days were accelerated. These are the last of the DDs, as far as I can tell.

Note: to Sir John and other Japanese players, please remember to expand the port in your major Oil/Resource centers. John left Bankha, Medan, and Toboali at their starting levels. Thus loading at a size 1 port is a lenghty process vs at a size 3 ro 4 if they were build up.

Minister Benoit

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Something has chewing on my brain since this whole crazy set of landings commenced and now Michael has brought it into focus. CAN you use a Size-1 Port to replenish CV and BB? I had always ASSUMED that you couldn't. This is why you cannot disband a TF until you get to a minimum anchorage of 3.

The entire American Fleet moved to Tori Shima on the 2nd and stayed there...

If you can then this changes the WHOLE thing and alters the attitude I have been working under. He can refuel, rearm, replenish, and replace losses indefinately. If so, what a load of crap! [8|][8|][8|]

Please---someone tell me one way or the other...

short answer: yes he can rearm and refuel EVERYTHING in one turn at such a level 1 port...

Does it even need to be a port? i have a feeling it can be done at a "dot" base if there are enough supplies... of course, there is going to be a huge amount of "spoilage" but the USN could probably handle it.

never thought about a dot base, but now as you say it... [8|][X(]

[John 3rd]

Wow.  Thanks guys for all the work and discussion.  I haven't been able to even check the Forum until now due to:
 
1.  Took my eldest son to see the new Narnia film.  Movie OK but not terrific.
2.  We had severe Thunderstorms roll through (with our 4th Tornado Watch in 5 days) and cut our power for the last 4 hours.  Any of you who saw the news on Thurs-Fri-Sat about Windsor, CO getting pummeled by a Twister?  Well THAT one missed us by 5 miles and then we had ANOTHER on Friday to the East that missed us by 3 miles!  It...has...been...rather...interesting...
 
As understand our problem with the economy we cannot return to full production until ALL the Oil Centers are repaired at Palembang and Balikpapan.  Is this correct?  Only at that point can we get back fully into gear.
 
Minister Benoit: 
1.  In turning off the HI in Australia--Does that need to be done since we just dropped off oil there?
2.  Will we continue to stockpile the HI points with these changes?  Seems like a logical answer but just want to check.
3.  What impact does this have on my expanding aircraft production?
 
Thank you gentlemen.  I have enjoyed watching the AAR get hijacked into an economic forum regarding the Japanese economy.  This is a very useful discussion for anyone watching and trying to learn the ins-and-outs of the Japanese position...
 
I will post about my Lvl 1 Port thoughts in about a minute.
 
 
 

[John 3rd]

The Americans managed to completely refuel, replenish, and supply themselves from the ultra-modern HUGE Port of Tori Shima within a span of 24 hours from Sept 2nd to 3rd.  They did it so well that the 12-15 Aircraft Carriers and 10 or so battleships were then in position to place LRCAP over Iwo Jima to destroy a Japanese air attack from pagan.
 
How did the American do this with only a small anchorage with a 75 foot wooden pier that protected fishing vessels a few days ago?  Easy!  They used Star Wars Era technology to do so.  This is the only explanation I can realistically see...
 
WHAT CRAP...
 
I am now shifting over to the AE Forum to make a comment.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Production was turned of for: Merchant Shipbuilding at Kyoto (160 x 3 = 480); all of HI in Australia (430); Naval Building at Sendai (16 x 3 = 48); and Mitsubishi Engines at Matsue (80 x 18 = 1440) for a savings of 2131. I think this is area of adjustment I did incorrectly, so some more experienced "economic minister" will need to point out the errors of my ways.

Engine factories are builds per month so the above is actually 480 + 430 + 48 + (1440/30) = 1006

[John 3rd]

Thanks Mike.  I am sure that Economic Minister Benoit will see your note.
 

[ny59giants]

Minister Benoit:
1. In turning off the HI in Australia--Does that need to be done since we just dropped off oil there?
2. Will we continue to stockpile the HI points with these changes? Seems like a logical answer but just want to check.
3. What impact does this have on my expanding aircraft production?

1) Looks like I've had a change of heart after long conversation with my other ministers and will use the TF at Ambonia (2 x 6k TKs) to go from there to Townsville, Truk, and back to Ambonia (Oil, Fuel, Empty). I might need some ASW ships at one of those places to join them.
2) We will change the HI to "on" again, but I will double check when the next turn comes and I load it into Tracker to ensure no further repairs/building is going on with HI.
3) Merchant Ship Building will come to an almost complete halt unless we suffer too many losses. This will hopefully allow aircraft expansion and engine production. However, some of the Mitsubishi engine plants may be shut down for a while as we have over 2100 in reserve.

With the Americans so close to home, I want to build up a reserve of HI and other things as I expect he will try to interdict shipping asap or when Iwo Jima falls and he feels safe.

I have 4 Construction LCUs moving to Pusan from Manchuria. The first 2 should be there in a few days as they are half way down the Korean peninsula. I had thought about bringing the Japan (to build AF/forts), but you may want to transport them to Okinawa (which needs some infantry sent there soon). 4 APs are already disbanded at Pusan. [;)]

The Economics Ministry respectfully request a Construction LCU and/or engineers be sent to Bankha (sumatra) to build that base port from size 1 to 2. Why?? At a size 1 it will load 400 Oil per day per ship while a size 2 does 800. At a size 1 it will take 27 days to load a large TK (11000 / 400 = 27.5). That is a lot of time to have my TKs tied up to a small dock (one of those 75ft wooden ones like at Tori Shima). [:D]

Minister Benoit

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
As understand our problem with the economy we cannot return to full production until ALL the Oil Centers are repaired at Palembang and Balikpapan.  Is this correct?  Only at that point can we get back fully into gear.

That is somewhat correct, at present there is almost a status quo of what you need HI for, and what HI you can produce with the current Oil levels. Any expansion however will tip you over and sink into your HI reserves (3 days of full supply)

Minister Benoit: 
1.  In turning off the HI in Australia--Does that need to be done since we just dropped off oil there?
2.  Will we continue to stockpile the HI points with these changes?  Seems like a logical answer but just want to check.
3.  What impact does this have on my expanding aircraft production?

1. There is no real need to turn off this (OZ) HI as there is no oil there, according to Michael, there is not harm. I wouldn't be turning off any HI, unless it is in a region where there are mulitple HI factories and supplies of Oil are dwindling, and you can't cover them all. This at least allows the turned on Factories to operate... Maybe in Japan, if you want to lengthen the use of oil you have there, turn off as Michael has stated, although, because you have a new shipment of Oil, I would have let it operate fully for a little while...

In the regions there is no oil, they will be unable to produce anyway.

2. As you are about at equalibrium, the only way to continue accumulating will be to trim the fat...
I recommended cutting back on Merchant build, unless there is something you really need (there are 2943 HI used per turn)
or
if you want to reopen your veh plants (50 * 6 = 300HI) or arm (324 * 6 = 1944HI) you need to compensate with shutting something else down. So turning both of these back on, compensate by shutting down (1944 HI worth of Merchant shipyards 1944/3 = 648)

I'm not sure why you shut down your Repair shipyards ... they don't use HI, but they do use supplies ...

3. I'm not sure where you are going with production issues here, but I do think that you need to balance engine production with aircraft production, try not to build a surplus of engines for the meantime, except Kawasaki ... obviously
I know you are about to get a whole heap of upgrades, so the R&D factories will convert to producing, this too will start impacting on your HI.

Every engine or plane built costs 18 HI, think of what you can build overall to keep below that 13000 HI, you produce daily, and you should be ok... but it will take some shrewd management. And a bit of on/off with some production...

Keep that Oil incoming ...

---- "Dont' panic , Don't Panic" Dad's Army --- (guess you yanks never had that)

[John 3rd]

I have evacuated the fragments of 4 Con Btn from Iwo Jima.  They should be able to help as they reconstruct themselves.
 
I have already thought about the Con Btn to go to Banka or the other Port.  As soon as I can move them down from Pisanoluke they will move.
 

[John 3rd]

I had something happen the turn after Rangoon fell.  I moved a bunch of barges from Moulmein to Rangoon for continued evacuation of Japanese troops are I had 20 of them hit mines and sink.  The only mines there are the ones I had sown...
 
Do minefields change allegiance the moment a base falls? 

[ny59giants]

Engine factories are builds per month so the above is actually 480 + 430 + 48 + (1440/30) = 1006

Thanks Mike!!

So back to WitP Chart and Tracker I have these numbers (per day):
HI - 15250
Oil - 2191 x 6 = 13146
Naval - 1366 x 3 = 4098 HI needed
Merchant - 981 x 3 = 2943
Amrament - 248 x 6 = 1488
Vehicles - 121 x 6 = 726
Planes - 1769/30days = 59/day x 18 = 1061
Engines - 2168/30days = 72/day x 18 = 1300

Thus, HI needed each day to run things is 11,616
Subtract the saving (shutdown of plants this turn ) using Mike's new numbers that means 11616 - 1006 = 10610 HI needed per day.

How much HI should I try to budget daily to be put into reserve??

[ny59giants]

Here is where I'm getting my numbers from. Note that a lot of industry is not producing right now. This is were i need input from John and others as we try to change from the "Course" knob to the "Fine" knob to tweak the economy.

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
September 3, 1943
 
Iwo Jima
To my surprise this garrision still holds out.  The Americans are so disorganized due to landing at a place they didn't plan on AT ALL that they cannot launch a simple attack against an enemy with Forts at 4 and only 150 AS.  Defies the imagination...
 
More damaged AP/AK sink with troops on board:  3rd Marine Division and 1st US Cav Div boys go for a swim...
 
Mos Eisley
Using the Mos Eisley Spaceport rule for refueling, rearming, and replenishing 200+ combat ships in less then 24 hours, Dan moved his Fleet back to a central location so a planned Betty strike against Iwo Jima shipping got wiped out.  At a cost of 30 Betty versus 312 F6F I get nothing other then enjoying the creation of a future House Rule to NOT ALLOW this crap happening at a Sz-1 or Sz-2 Port.
 
Tori Shima
The shipping around Mos Eisley itself got smacked by two Japanese mainland strikes:  18 Zero escorted 50 Sally/Helen who creamed 4 DM and 43 Kates with 3 Helen then pasted 3 AVD and 2 AK.
 
I ordered the re-formation of my STF:  CAs Maya and Furutaka, CLs Agano and Natori, plus 5 DD are ordered to attack the shipping around this Most Modern Sz-1 Space Port.  We'll see how they do.  I predict another Future House Rule being broken:  8,000 PT cannot defend a Sz-1 Port.  I would expect to run into 3 groups of 6 PTs.  Perhaps I will be happily mistaken...doubt it...
 
Burma
My AP/AK continue to flee the vacinity going south.  Allied air is being tough but not unreasonable.  I think I will end up losing 10-12 AP/AK is exchange for pulling out over 85,000 troops from Rangoon prior to collapse.  Wish I knew about Minefields changing allegiance; however, I will keep sending the barges in until they are all sunk.
 
I had a STF of DD, MSW, PC manage to actually sink a SS!  Down goes KXV...
 
Australia
Dan has backed away from Adelaide and Broken Hill again.  My LBA hits him every turn but he doesn't attack.  His LBA is attacking the 20th Inf Div at Broken Hill.  I have 45-50 Fighters defending it and they exact a toll of 4-8 Bombers everyday.
 

[thegreatwent]

Well John, I for one have enjoyed this AAR and learned a great deal about the Japanese industry, kudos for keeping it up. In terms of refueling TFs I think it is currently equal, you can do the same operation as your opponent. If AE adopts changes I would hope they are equal for both Axis and Allied players in terms of refuel/rearm times.


Also glad to hear that you missed the tornadoes, here in Denver we just got a little rain.

[John 3rd]

If we can simply keep adding something to the pool I think that is good. 
 
My concern is aircraft, aircraft engines, and vehicles.  Had a massive drawdown in vehicles last month.  Take a look at the Sept VP/Industrial Posting on that.  Got to keep them producing so I can flesh out those 2 TK Divisions (Hanoi and Bangkok) as well as as those TK Regiments...
 
At the other end of this is the need for supply and fuel to get to the Marianas and/or Truk for the Fleet and bases there.  I think this is being handled but it is a concern for combat operations.
 

[John 3rd]

I never noticed that you were in Denver Sir!  Good to have a close reader on the Forum.  IT has been crazy weather here and we have lost power for some portion of time in 3 of the last 5 days.  This has been a lot of fun and very neat...