Empire of the Rising Lemon? SqzMyLemon (Japan) v Smeulders (Allies)

[SqzMyLemon]

The Burma Theatre:

[SqzMyLemon]

Burma:

And now for something completely different...

Having looked over the Burma theater, I've decided to completely change my strategy. My recent post in answer to crsutton triggered the idea. I stated that having troops sitting around in China simply containing the enemy is a waste of offensive potential. If I apply that same reasoning to Burma, I'm guilty of doing just that. I have ten divisions and over 6000 AV just sitting here doing absolutely nothing more than babysitting Allied forces.

I'm going to slowly begin to draw off units from Mandalay into the rough terrain to the east, garrison Taung Gyi and deploy troops in both forested hexes north of Toungoo. I'll provide a holding action around Bhamo and Lashio to keep a direct supply path to China closed, while I withdraw four divisions for an offensive into China. Let the Allies have the clear terrain and the problems that entails. I've held back from bombing troops at Shwebo to avoid retaliation in spades by the Allies on my forces holding Mandalay. I'll force the Allies to defend the airspace over Shwebo or see their troops bombed daily while mine are much less exposed in rough terrain.

I'm going to take four divisions and march them through the rough terrain for a direct assault against Kunming, completely bypassing Paoshan. I'll land paratroops to seize the dot base S.W. of Kunming, air transport troops in, and begin to build it up as a base of operations for my troops that are humping it through the hills. Any additional strength I can withdraw will go to Sumatra. I may direct the 13th Army in China directly to Kunming rather than to Kweiyang. The loss of the supply production at Kunming will be yet another blow to the Chinese.

I've just got too many troops here accomplishing nothing and I've never liked my situation in Burma. It's an albatross around my neck. It's time to put these forces to better use and trying to knock out China is as worthy a goal as any other at this point. I'll provide a future screenshot to show my planned movements.

[SqzMyLemon]

Increased enemy activity is noted in SoPac. Two consecutive days of Allied 4E's bombing Lunga's airfield tells me something is up. I'm trying to decide how best to react.

Just what are the Allied intentions? It's time I try to discern what their operations might be telling me.

At this stage, the Solomons and New Guinea are weakly held with airbase construction far behind schedule. It appears the main Allied effort is being directed to subjugating this region with as little force committment as possible. My poor defensive preparedness and lack of resistance to date is encouraging this minimal approach.

I believe I'm going to have to start looking at ways of disrupting Allied efforts here. To that end, I've been rethinking my Hawaiian operation. Just how important is Hawaii to my opponent? As more of my submarines take up station around Oahu, I'm slowly beginning to gather more information. The LCU count is up to 14, but still no indication on the specific number of troops, aircraft or ships based here. The submarines are detected daily, but there is little Allied ASW so far.

In contrast, any submarines spotted around the Santa Cruz Islands, New Caledonia and Fiji are aggressively attacked. If the Allies are indeed routing much of their war material well to the south, perhaps Pearl Harbor holds little value to the Allies. The few sightings of major Allied warships have all occurred off the east coast of Australia. Airbases at Luganville, Koumac, Noumea and Suva have been expanded extensively, unlike the Hawaiian Island's where little to no expansion has occurred. Allied base expansions tell me the main route of advance will be New Guinea and the Solomons.

Western and Northern Australia have seen little expansion, leading me to believe Java and Timor are not high on the list of objectives at this point. Darwin is still completely neutralized and no attack will be based from there any time soon. Northeastern Australia has been extensively expanded however, further reinforcing the threat to New Guinea and the Solomons.

India has seen major expansion in the Calcutta region and Ceylon. This leads me to believe an amphibious operation against Burma, Malaya or Sumatra is a threat to be taken seriously.

Allied expansion in the Aleutians has been confined to Dutch Harbor and Umnack. I expect efforts by the Allies to strengthen the Aleutians come Spring, to that end I plan on strengthening the Kuriles. I think the Kuriles could be under direct threat come late 1943, until then I expect Allied efforts to consist of prepping the Aleutians as a base of operations.

There has been little to no enemy interest shown in the Gilbert or Marshall Island chains. Other than large numbers of enemy submarine patrols there is no indication of Allied intentions here.

So, every indication leads to New Guinea and the Solomons as the first priority for the Allies. I'm going to hold off major preparations for a Hawaiian operation in the short term, as I'm beginning the formulation of another possible counter. I'd like to determine the extent to which the Allies want to get established in New Guinea and the Solomons. I'm beginning to believe that it might be my best chance to disrupt Allied operations by backfilling in behind them at Fiji and New Caledonia when they move on New Guinea or the Solomons, rather than Pearl Harbor. Right now I invite small invasions with little Allied committment which further weakens an already porous defensive perimeter. I need to up the ante and force the Allies to commit more important assets before they get too strong.

KB is still located at Truk, as is the majority of the Combined Fleet. I'm going to wait until the next Allied move and then strike a counterblow to test the Allied response. If Guadalcanal is the next target, I may counter invade. If Port Moresby is the target, I may counter at Luganville, Ndeni or Fiji. I continue to shift LCU's around and gather a strong strategic reserve for a major counter operation, it's just not determined where yet. I still plan for Hawaii and the Johnston invasion is still on the table in order to gain effective intelligence on Pearl Harbor, but am not sold on whether that is the best move at this point. As I learn more I can better determine my course of action. At the very least, SoPac is going to heat up somewhat as I plan on countering Allied moves. My initial priority is get airbases established so I can get my LBA more effectively involved and won't have to rely solely on my carriers to provide all the support.

The biggest lesson I'm learning at this point, is you have to have a plan playing as the Japanese. Be it offensive, defensive or economic you must be on top of things. This isn't a game where you can change on the fly. As I scramble to get my defences in order, I realize just how much harder it will be at this stage. I've been extremely lucky in the lack of Allied interdiction of my movements to date, but also realize I wasted much of that time to prepare adequately. It only gets tougher now as the Allies begin to flex their collective muscle. Stay tuned, it may be a wild ride as I attempt to rectify my situation with daring, since I've squandered the ability to methodically set up an effectively static defence otherwise.

[SqzMyLemon]

As I continue to bounce ideas around, the war goes on. November continues where October left off with operations being confined to Burma and China. There is some increased air activity in the Solomons from the Allies though as they begin to probe my air defences at Lunga.

Nov. 1/42:

Burma:

The air war in Burma remains quiet with the exception of a night air attack against Shwebo by Japanese bombers. In moderate rain, Sally's (41) in two separate attacks account for only 1 AB and 2 Runway hits against the airbase.

China:

The 17th Chinese/B Corps suffers 5(1) infantry squad losses totalling 61 casualties from the Helen's today. This unit it being slowly wiped out. I wonder if destroying the unit will prevent the 17th Chinese Corps being able to reform again. Will the B portion respawn?

An artillery bombardment at Changsha inficts 1(1) infantry squad and 1(3) gun losses totalling 20 casualties to the defenders. I suffer 1(3) vehicle losses.

Another artillery bombardment at Sining doesn't inflict any losses on either side as I only used the 5th Med. FA Rgt. The current AV comparison is 969 to 777 in Japan's favour. Once reinforcements arrive, I'll being the ground assault in earnest once again.

Miscellaneous:

Aitape expands fortifications to size 1

Ki-43-Ic Oscar upgrading to Ki-43-IIa Oscar at Harbin (Oops, I want frontline units upgrading first)

E Ishigaki beginning refit in shipyard at Kobe

Nov. 2/42:

China:

Changsha's airbase takes impressive damage today from the Sonia's (54). Damage to the airbase was 8 AB, 4 ABS and 118 Runway hits. Sally's (35) are ordered to hit the ground troops. Chinese casualties are 0(5) infantry and 0(10) non-combat squad losses totalling 52 troops. A follow up ground bombardment inflicts another 1(2) infantry and 0(2) non-combat squad losses totalling 51 casualties. Japanese forces will launch another ground assault tomorrow.

17th Chinese/B Corps is bombed again by the Helen's and receive another 2(0) infantry and 4(0) non-combat squad losses totalling 55 casualties.

Miscellaneous:

Kushiro expands fortifications to size 1
Peleliu expands fortifications to size 2
Maloelap expands fortifications to size 4
Nabire expands fortifications to size 2
Sorong expands fortifications to size 1

CL Kuma beginning refit while under repair in shipyard at Singapore
CL Tama beginning refit in shipyard at Singapore
DD Matsukaze beginning refit in shipyard at Singapore

Nov. 3/42:

Sub Ops:

SS Pollack misses SC Ch 22 with four torpedoes near Oosthaven. There is no follow up DC attack.

China:

Daily bombing of the 17th Chinese/B Corps causes another 3(0) infantry and 2(0) non-combat squad losses totalling 21 casualties.

Changsha's airbase and ground troops were bombed once again today in preparation for the planned ground assault. Sally's (36) hit the ground troops for 0(15) infantry, 1(6) non-combat and 0(2) engineer squad losses totalling 121 casualties. The Sonia's (42) hit the airfield for 5 AB, 5 ABS and 65 Runway hits.

The ground assault consisted of yet another deliberate attack. The unadjusted AV comparison was 2330 to 974 in Japan's favour resulting in 1:1 odds and the fortifications reduced to level 1. Supply at Changsha is still plentiful as there was no (-) modifier against the defenders. Japanese losses were 9(308) infantry, 3(268) non-combat and 0(34) engineer squad losses totalling 3652 casualties. Chinese losses were 45(25) infantry, 50(47) non-combat and 0(34) engineer squad losses totalling 1295 casualties.

A note on the assault on Changsha. I decided to hold off on a shock attack since there was no threatening move from Chinese forces at Changteh. The 8th Recon Rgt. has been ordered to advance by combat move to Changsha daily, but everyday I reset the movement so it has to start afresh. I'm just not sure about risking the unit. However, I may have to, as clearly the defenders are getting enough supply. Crossing the river will reduce the Chinese to only one interior controlled hex side. I would think that should completely isolate Changsha to relying on what supply is stored and can be produced locally. A final push against Changsha will take place in less than a week.

The Solomons:

Something new today! Unescorted Allied B-17E's (24) hit the airbase at Lunga. CAP consists of A6M2 Zero's (35) and they fair poorly. Of the 35 fighters, only 6 are airborne, 6 on standby, and a further 23 scrambilng. Watching the replay I'd say no more than 10 fighters engaged the bombers before the combat ends. No B-17's are damaged. A Zero is lost outright in A2A and a further two as Ops losses. The Zero's just couldn't penetrate the bomber formation. A KI-46-II Dinah and an A6M2 Zero were further destroyed on the ground. The airfield damage was heavy at 8 AB, 2 ABS and 37 Runway hits.

Miscellaneous:

Adak Island expands airfield to size 1 (Here we go, looks like the Aleutians will be built up for an Allied Spring offensive.)

Fukuoka expands airfield to size 3
Tienshui expands fortifications to size 5

59th JNAF AF Unit arrives at Tokyo

Nov. 4/42:

Sub Ops:

SS S-23 fires 4 torpedoes against the E Kari near Lunga. One fails to detonate.

SS Grunion launches 6 torpedoes against the SS I-27 near Eniwetok! [X(] I can't remember if any dud or if they all miss, but the I-27 is undamaged. So far in the game, none of my submarines have ever reacted to, nor launched an attack, against an Allied submarine that I recall. This is the 2nd or 3rd time the Allies have had a crack at mine. [:-]

China:

The 17th Chinese/B Corps suffers another 1(0) infantry and 3(0) non-combat squad losses totalling 22 casualties. This unit is like a timex.

In rough terrain N.W. of Sian, Japanese forces engage the 3rd Chinese Cavalry Corps at 82,40. The shock attack by the 40th Bde. and 78th Inf. Rgt. inflict 20(44) infantry, 13(40) non-combat squad losses on the Chinese totalling 448 casualties. Japanese forces suffer 0(6) infantry and 0(8) non-combat squad losses totalling 129 casualties. The Chinese retreat and join the large Chinese army blocking the road into Central China.

Japanese bombers are grounded due to weather over Changsha. The defenders are still treated to an artillery bombardment though. The casualties are 0(4) infantry, 1(1) non-combat and 2(2) guns lost totalling 42 troops.

The Solomons

Anticipating the Allies to follow up success with another raid against Lunga, I prepared a little surprise. I withdrew the Zero's and replaced them with the 5th Sentai equipped with Ki-45 KIAa Nick's (23). As predicted the B-17E's (17) appear once again unescorted. However, this time the CAP is much more effective getting airborne and interdicting the bombers despite being rather inexperienced. In pre and post bombing phases three enemy bombers are recorded being downed in A2A for no loss with eight Nick's damaged. Damage to the airfield is lighter than the previous days attack with 2 AB, 1 ABS and 14 Runway hits inflicted, no aircraft are lost on the ground. I expect the base to be swept tomorrow by P-38's, or no attack at all. The Allies hate taking losses. [:D]

Miscellaneous:

Nagoya expands airfield to size 4
Saigon expands airfield to size 7
Wau expands fortifications to size 1
Cocos Islands expands fortifications to size 1

SC Ch 21 taken out of commission to begin refit at Batavia
SC Ch 22 taken out of commission to begin refit at Batavia

Nov. 5/42:

Sub Ops:

SS I-1 spots the PC Viglant near Pearl Harbor and elects to not attack, however the Allied ASW does. No DC hits are recorded.

The Solomons:

No enemy air activity. Did I mention the enemy hates to take losses?

China:

Tuyun's airbase is bombed by Sonia's (33) today. It's time to try and get some supply hits here. The airbase is hit for 7 AB, 4 ABS and 21 Runway hits.

Helen's(22) hit the 17th Chinese/B Corps for 4(0) infantry, 1(0) non-combat and 1(1) engineer squad losses totalling 48 casualties.

The bombers fly over Changsha today and the Sally's (45) hit the ground troops for 0(3) infantry, 0(7) non-combat squad losses totalling 78 casualties. The Sonia's (54) follow up against the airbase inflicting 11 AB, 3 ABS and 46 Runway hits.

I goofed today in my orders [8|]. I forgot to restart the 8th Recon Rgt's orders to march on Changsha and it shock attacked across the N.W. hex side into the base, completely surprising me during the replay. Well, I learned whether the unit would survive or not [:D]. Despite 1:153 odds the unit survived, although it is severly disrupted. Japanese losses were 0(30) infantry, 2(88) non-combat squad and 3(109) vehicle losses totalling 433 casualties. The Chinese suffered 0(2) infantry and 1(6) non-combat squad losses totalling 56 casualties.

I'm obviously happy the 8th survived and will recover, but more importantly the N.W. hex side is now completely under my control. The Chinese at Changsha are completely cut off from outside supply and only one retreat route is left open to them and it is currently occupied by over 2000 AV of Japanese troops. Providing there is no movement of Chinese forces from Changteh I can press on with the complete destruction of nine enemy corps. I will continue to bombard by ground/air for a few days and recover disruption and, if not forced to act sooner, I will then launch a shock attack supported by paratroop drop to try and finally take the base.

As I finish typing this it seems appropriate that a "Mad World" from the Donnie Darko soundtrack is playing on my I-touch. Changsha is about to finally be crushed and the somber tone of the song seems quite appropriate.

Miscellaneous:

Keijo expands airfield to size 2
Hollandia expands fortifications to size 1
Pegu expands fortifications to size 1

E Hachijo beginning refit in shipyard at Manila
E Kunashiri beginning refit in shipyard at Manila
932 Ku T-2 on CVE Taiyo converting to size 27 from 24

[SqzMyLemon]

Recon of Pearl Harbor still indicates 14 LCU's, but now indicates a whopping 540 guns and just under 300 vehicles. My guess is a lot of AA and engineer units with forts maxed out. I believe a direct assault on Pearl Harbor can be ruled out. I still need to determine the air strength and what ships may be docked there. Recon of the other Hawaiian Islands has begun as well, but no specifics yet. A submarine based Glen was shot down on Nov. 5/42 and that effectively blinds one of my submarines. This reinforces the need to establish land based recon within range of Oahu for reliable information. I still plan an invasion of Johnston Island to accomplish this.

Looking at the map last night I definitely think the Allied route of advance will focus on the Solomons. Some posts in other AAR's are suggesting this is a conservative and easier route of advance against the Japanese in late 42 and early 43. Relying on LBA based at Luganville and New Caledonia to cover an invasion of Guadacanal. It appears the Allies are following this script closely and the conservative nature of these operations suits my opponents style. I wouldn't be surprised if an invasion against Port Moresby occurs in conjunction with, or shortly after, a Guadalcanal operation. I've decided this is where I'm going to counter my opponent. Preparations for a counterstroke in the Solomons will begin immediately.

Other than New Caledonia, the only bases built up by the Allies are Luganville, Savu, Pago Pago and Christmas Islands. The surrounding islands have all been neglected. This has to be a weak point and if I can succeed in capturing say Savu on Fiji, I effectively cut the Allied LOC to Australia and have access to the Southern map edge to interdict his transports TF's. I think this is where I can completely disrupt the Allies, and backfill in behind them once they commit to a PM or Guadalcanal operation. I'll delay his spearhead as best I can, while hitting his flank hard.

I've already been redeploying troops to both Saipan and Truk, as well as additional units bound for New Guinea and the Solomons. I am in the process of reinforcing both PM and Guadalcanal. The 14th Garrison unit is already being airlifted to PM from Lae and the 13th Garrison unit will redeploy from Rabaul to Tulagi. The 2nd, 16th and 54th Divisions will form my counterattack force. Additional smaller units will begin to occupy other important islands in the theatre. In another month or so I can have another 3-4 divisions available in this theatre, giving me a large enough hammer for a decisive blow.

The Combined Fleet is located at Truk. All my CVL's are currently based at Singapore to deal with any Commonwealth moves in the IO. So right now I continue to prepare and redeploy forces and await the next move by the Allies. I like the idea of a counter invasion of Luganville or Fiji if the Allies strike at Guadalcanal. I believe the Allied Fleet is located at Sydney or Auckland and will be committed to battle if I contest the next Allied move.

I haven't forgotten about Java or Sumatra. Reinforcing units are en route and I may divert the forces originally slated for a drive on Western China to this theatre instead. That would free up another two divisions for a countermove in the Solomons, while not compromising the defence of the all important SRA.

With Changsha about to fall, that opens up a new possibility for an offensive in Southern China. The 13th Army has been recalled from it's previously planned offensive. I think I've thought of a more effective way to split the Chinese forces in two in the south and drive on Chungking with a chance to encircle and cut off large numbers of Chinese units. First things first...finish off Changsha.

I don't know what's happened, but I think I'm seeing my course of action a little clearer. I'm notorious for changing plans midstride, but it feels like I finally have some direction, a focus. I know what I'd like to do now and how to go about putting it into effect. If things go well, I think I'll finally throw off my opponent and capitalize on his conservative tendencies and extreme aversion to taking losses of any kind. It's time to upset his apple cart and see how well he reacts.

As always, thoughts or suggestions are welcome.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Burma:

And now for something completely different...

Having looked over the Burma theater, I've decided to completely change my strategy. My recent post in answer to crsutton triggered the idea. I stated that having troops sitting around in China simply containing the enemy is a waste of offensive potential. If I apply that same reasoning to Burma, I'm guilty of doing just that. I have ten divisions and over 6000 AV just sitting here doing absolutely nothing more than babysitting Allied forces.

I'm going to slowly begin to draw off units from Mandalay into the rough terrain to the east, garrison Taung Gyi and deploy troops in both forested hexes north of Toungoo. I'll provide a holding action around Bhamo and Lashio to keep a direct supply path to China closed, while I withdraw four divisions for an offensive into China. Let the Allies have the clear terrain and the problems that entails. I've held back from bombing troops at Shwebo to avoid retaliation in spades by the Allies on my forces holding Mandalay. I'll force the Allies to defend the airspace over Shwebo or see their troops bombed daily while mine are much less exposed in rough terrain.

I'm going to take four divisions and march them through the rough terrain for a direct assault against Kunming, completely bypassing Paoshan. I'll land paratroops to seize the dot base S.W. of Kunming, air transport troops in, and begin to build it up as a base of operations for my troops that are humping it through the hills. Any additional strength I can withdraw will go to Sumatra. I may direct the 13th Army in China directly to Kunming rather than to Kweiyang. The loss of the supply production at Kunming will be yet another blow to the Chinese.

I've just got too many troops here accomplishing nothing and I've never liked my situation in Burma. It's an albatross around my neck. It's time to put these forces to better use and trying to knock out China is as worthy a goal as any other at this point. I'll provide a future screenshot to show my planned movements.

Well, it makes sense. Once the oil facility at Magawe is bombed out there is really not much use for Burma for either side. If you have pretty much taken China out, then it really makes no difference if the Allies hold Rangoon. I think most historians agree that the Allied effort in Burma was a wasted effort.

[crsutton]

As for lack of enemy air activity. I can relate. As the Allied player in late 1942 there were simply times when I was "out" of airplanes and had to stand down for a few days. The Allied bomber and fighter pool are pitiful and a respectable Japanese player should be able to hold air superiority in most all theaters until the hellcat comes into production in mid 1943.

My game is scen #2 but it should not matter if it is 1 or 2.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

As for lack of enemy air activity. I can relate. As the Allied player in late 1942 there were simply times when I was "out" of airplanes and had to stand down for a few days. The Allied bomber and fighter pool are pitiful and a respectable Japanese player should be able to hold air superiority in most all theaters until the hellcat comes into production in mid 1943.

My game is scen #2 but it should not matter if it is 1 or 2.

Hi crsutton,

We've had very little air combat to speak of for most of the war. The Allied plane and pilot pools are probably in very good shape. I'll post air losses so you can see that I've actually lost quite a few more planes over the course of the game so far. The majority of mine are Ops losses though.

He's definitely conserved his air units to date and only commits them to specific operations. Once completed there's no reason for him to fly again until his next operation is planned. He does not keep air units at forward bases unless absolutely necessary, so they are very hard to engage in most cases.

My opponent is quite adverse to taking any kind of losses. If an air operation is successful he will continue flying the same missions until his goal is accomplished, or until losses are incurred. Once he takes a turn of negative results, he tends to completely stop his flights and pull back.

I almost feel I'm playing General McClellan at times. He loves to get his troops in order and upgraded to the latest TOE, but is more often than not loath to see them then committed in case they suffer any loss. This is one trait of my opponent that I hope to exploit. I don't think he'll be quite as methodical and careful once his forces are engaged on a regular basis and they begin to take heavy losses. I think mistakes will be made and there will be resistance to commit additional assets into harms way at a crucial time. I hope to take advantage of any openings he gives me and severely test his resolve. That's why I've been wracking my brains how best to get at him. If I allow him to continue his present preparations he'll simply bury me over time, but if I strike at him unexpectedly and disrupt his carefully laid plans, I think I'll have some success in the short term while he's disorganized. At least I hope so, as that's the current plan.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
My opponent is quite adverse to taking any kind of losses. If an air operation is successful he will continue flying the same missions until his goal is accomplished, or until losses are incurred. Once he takes a turn of negative results, he tends to completely stops his flights and pull back.

I almost feel I'm playing General McClellan at times. He loves to get his troops in order and upgraded to the latest TOE, but is more often than not loath to see them then committed in case they suffer any loss. This is one trait of my opponent that I hope to exploit. I don't think he'll be quite as methodical and careful once his forces are engaged on a regular basis and they begin to take heavy losses. I think mistakes will be made and there will be resistance to commit additional assets into harms way at a crucial time.

Now you're talking. General McClellan in the Pacific will not fly-pardon the expression.

The Allies must take risks, extend themselves and get their noses bloodied in order to retake the Pacific in a reasonable time frame. Every month that goes by with no activity is a blessing for your soldiers and engineers-they can dig a little deeper. Every dogfight that goes unchallenged lets you control the air for that much longer and build your reserves that much deeper. Don't forget that YOUR ships need to upgrade too-whatever your opponent does to allow you to fly the best planes, sail the best ships and defend with the stoutest garrisons is a good thing.

Are you taking maximum advantage of this Pacific sitzkrieg?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I'm going to slowly begin to draw off units from Mandalay into the rough terrain to the east, garrison Taung Gyi and deploy troops in both forested hexes north of Toungoo. I'll provide a holding action around Bhamo and Lashio to keep a direct supply path to China closed, while I withdraw four divisions for an offensive into China. Let the Allies have the clear terrain and the problems that entails.

I likee. Taung Gyi, Rahaeng, Moulmein and that other hex town between Pegu and Taung Gyi make great defensive bullwarks. A couple of IJA divisions in the forest outside of the base hexes oughta really require a maximum commitment from the Allies. Chang Mai can be built to be a fine airbase and Lashio is also on the rail (and road and hex) lines.

Take another look at Lashio as defensive terrain. It will be able to draw supplies by rail from Rangoon, so it's efficient. It's also 8-9 hexes distant from Cox's Bazaar or other Western aerodromes. For P38s on Escort, this distance isnt' a biggy, but it's too far for some of the shorter-legged Allied fighters to escort. He'll either have to coordinate from Ledo or the Imphal compex to affect coordinated air attacks on Lashio. Not impossible, but he'll either have to choose to have: A. Dual-purpose air coverage (land and sea coverage, Distance to Rangoon or B. Aerodromes equal to the task to threaten Lashio and Chang Mai and C. The air units equal to either task A or B.

Back to Lashio: You could leave units in Lashio in "Strat" mode and treat them as area reserve. They would be in position to Strat Move anywhere in the theater in defense or stand where they are as a defense against an Eastern or Northern attack.

I'm going to take four divisions and march them through the rough terrain for a direct assault against Kunming, completely bypassing Paoshan. I'll land paratroops to seize the dot base S.W. of Kunming, air transport troops in, and begin to build it up as a base of operations for my troops that are humping it through the hills. Any additional strength I can withdraw will go to Sumatra. I may direct the 13th Army in China directly to Kunming rather than to Kweiyang. The loss of the supply production at Kunming will be yet another blow to the Chinese.

I've just got too many troops here accomplishing nothing and I've never liked my situation in Burma. It's an albatross around my neck. It's time to put these forces to better use and trying to knock out China is as worthy a goal as any other at this point. I'll provide a future screenshot to show my planned movements.

This oughta be interesting. Thanks for posting your map and your thoughts, as always. We'll be watching for the Kunming Kapture. [:)]

By the way-it's a 'millstone around one's neck' or 'an albatross'. Wearing an albatross around one's neck is just plain nasty. [;)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
So, every indication leads to New Guinea and the Solomons as the first priority for the Allies.

First priority or first convenient theatre of combat used to fix you in place and try to draw you into a long-term struggle? Clearly, it would be most convenient for your opponent to use his built up uber-bases on NE Australia and use that as a springboard towards P/NG. It's your responsibility to turn that into a nasty and brutish slog at comparatively minimal cost to yourself.

Your insight into your opponent is useful here. Does he have what it takes to engage in the hamburger war of attrition in P/NG? You could make exploitation of this theatre most expensive for him and really slow things down. Will he see that as an opportunity to tie down your troops in a meaningless theatre or will he blanche at the butcher's bill and back down?

I'm going to hold off major preparations for a Hawaiian operation in the short term, as I'm beginning the formulation of another possible counter. I'd like to determine the extent to which the Allies want to get established in New Guinea and the Solomons. I'm beginning to believe that it might be my best chance to disrupt Allied operations by backfilling in behind them at Fiji and New Caledonia when they move on New Guinea or the Solomons, rather than Pearl Harbor.

To be true to yourself and your previous strategic thoughts-or at least those you've shared with us, you've got to look at your rationale for pulling off the Pearl operation. Your first and foremost goal was to bring the Allied fleet to battle-to force them to battle. Can you think of anything in the South Pacific that is remotely vulnerable that your opponent would fight tooth and nail for? I think Sydney and Brisbane are off the table, Noumea is likely unassailable / past value as is Fiji and / or New Zealand.

If he will only come to battle on terms of his own choosing (e.g., invading the Solomons with his preset invasion TFs), then you will be unable to bring him to battle on terms of your own choosing. In which case, if your strategic missives still hold true-you're changing your mind about what you want to do from a strategic POV.

The biggest lesson I'm learning at this point, is you have to have a plan playing as the Japanese.

As soon as you figure it out, will you let me know? [;)] I sometimes feel torn between offensive, defensive and economic pulling and pushing myself. I appreciate you sharing your thoughts with us like this-doubts and all. [&o]

On a 'plan ahead' motif: What are your defensive efforts in the mid and Northern DEI areas, Philippines and Marianas? No time like the present to think about digging in there too.

What's your PP situation like? Can you buy some engineer units from the home islands and Kwangtung? They're largely underutilized in these places. They're cheap and very useful further south.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

The Allies must take risks, extend themselves and get their noses bloodied in order to retake the Pacific in a reasonable time frame. Every month that goes by with no activity is a blessing for your soldiers and engineers-they can dig a little deeper. Every dogfight that goes unchallenged lets you control the air for that much longer and build your reserves that much deeper. Don't forget that YOUR ships need to upgrade too-whatever your opponent does to allow you to fly the best planes, sail the best ships and defend with the stoutest garrisons is a good thing.

Are you taking maximum advantage of this Pacific sitzkrieg?

I thought I was Chickenboy, but then Nemo pointed out I was completely unprepared for the eventual Allied counteroffensive. In terms of garrisons, I'm unprepared, but addressing the problem. In terms of forts, I think I'm doing good here and my most important weapon at the moment is the shovel. Airbase expansion leaves something to be desired on the frontline, but again I'm addressing this issue. Ship upgrades, I'm generally on top of. I have a ton of DD's and such due a 1/43 upgrade and they will be rotated for a quick turn around time and will be deployed appropriately near ports to facilitate this. I'm increasing my pilot pools as quickly as I can, building up fighter and bomber reserves, as I had concentrated on expanding my aircraft production ability from day one. I'm stockpiling reserves of supply and fuel, accumulating a strategic reserve of LCU's, and as you see, preparing for a decisive counterstroke to buy me even more time if successful.

I definitely was lax preparing, but I attribute that to the Sitzkrieg. Nemo, made a good point. The lack of action should have then made me focus on preparing my defences, which I'm learning is an entirely different beast altogether. I'm trying to make up for lost time, and I hope my opponent continues to cooperate with a slow rate of advance. Although, I intend to bloody his nose from now on to hopefully cause even more delay.

I'm preparing to hit him with everything I have at the right time and hopefully send him reeling.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm going to hold off major preparations for a Hawaiian operation in the short term, as I'm beginning the formulation of another possible counter. I'd like to determine the extent to which the Allies want to get established in New Guinea and the Solomons. I'm beginning to believe that it might be my best chance to disrupt Allied operations by backfilling in behind them at Fiji and New Caledonia when they move on New Guinea or the Solomons, rather than Pearl Harbor.

To be true to yourself and your previous strategic thoughts-or at least those you've shared with us, you've got to look at your rationale for pulling off the Pearl operation. Your first and foremost goal was to bring the Allied fleet to battle-to force them to battle. Can you think of anything in the South Pacific that is remotely vulnerable that your opponent would fight tooth and nail for? I think Sydney and Brisbane are off the table, Noumea is likely unassailable / past value as is Fiji and / or New Zealand.

If he will only come to battle on terms of his own choosing (e.g., invading the Solomons with his preset invasion TFs), then you will be unable to bring him to battle on terms of your own choosing. In which case, if your strategic missives still hold true-you're changing your mind about what you want to do from a strategic POV.

I think this sums up my dilemma. I'm wracking my brain to try and come up with an operation that will force my opponent to commit on my terms, however, I don't think anything I can come up with will. Even the Hawaii operation doesn't guarantee an Allied response and the sheer amount of units I'd need to effectively isolate PH would leave me ripe for the picking everywhere else. If I simply isolate PH, I think my opponent would welcome that, he'd simply ignore it and move in the Aleutians and New Guinea/Solomons as he already is. He doesn't need to use Hawaii. If I somehow could take Hawaii, that forces him to move in the Solomons or Aleutians where I could then direct my entire strength in defence, but can I even take the darn place at this late stage?

If he will not commit on my terms, am I looking for the wrong fight? I may not understand exactly what you are implying. Ideally, I'd like to force a naval engagement to try and inflict losses to offset the reinforcements he'll be getting in 1943 and delay his counteroffensive giving me more time to dig in. If I mount the Hawaii operation and his fleet never commits, I won't accomplish the primary goal. I may end up isolating Pearl Harbor, denying it's use for a Central Pacific thrust, but meanwhile I may give up New Guinea and the Solomons without a fight...gaining nothing.

I just don't know what will make him commit. Am I looking for the wrong fight? Perhaps I shouldn't be focusing on bringing his fleet to battle with an offensive of my own, since I fear he doesn't have to commit, except as you point out on his own terms. Am I falling into Yamamoto's obsession with having to decisively defeat the enemy in a large naval battle, where the current odds of me suffering just as big a defeat are roughly even? If he'll most likely only commit his naval forces in support of his own operations, should I instead focus on stopping his next move cold, so that he'll have to use his fleet to ensure he moves forward providing they survive a battle?

I still have both options, and I can still prepare for either one as they both require many of the same preparations. I can still mount my Johnston Island invasion to provide the ability to learn the extent of the Hawaiian Island's defences. I'll continue to bounce ideas off the walls, but it is also time to test the Allies at the sharp pointy end...nothing for free anymore.

One question, why would the loss of Fiji or Noumea be past value at this stage?

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

On a 'plan ahead' motif: What are your defensive efforts in the mid and Northern DEI areas, Philippines and Marianas? No time like the present to think about digging in there too.

What's your PP situation like? Can you buy some engineer units from the home islands and Kwangtung? They're largely underutilized in these places. They're cheap and very useful further south.

I've currently just over 400 PP's. I'm planning on saving up for more ground combat troops, another two divisions worth before the end of the year. I've bought out most engineer units already and they are busy throughout the Empire. I'm redeploying the better ones to areas of the highest priority.

I've been digging in everywhere. I'll start posting screens to show the extent of defensive preparations and base expansions to date.

[Nemo121]

What strikes me here is that the Hawaiian operation used your initiative to disrupt the enemy... Operations along the PNG/New Zealand axis are merely designed to disrupt the enemy's initiative. Have you consciously decided to transition to the defensive and cede the initiative to your opponent? I ask because that's going to be the outcome of your PNG/NZ axis plan.

Personally I don't see that there is a requirement to transition to the defence right now and that makes me wonder whether you are doing so consciously or subconsciously. It seems to me that you are taking extreme counsel from your fears, uncertainty and anxiety and have already transitioned to worrying about what he can do unto you rather than what you can be doing unto him.

Personally my view is always that if I'm busy disembowelling someone they're going to be too focused on their bowels being ripped out in front of their eyes to worry about putting together a wonderful counter-thrust into my unguarded side. On the other hand if I am paralysed by fear of a thrust into my side such that I don't actually threaten my opponent won't I just be creating a situation in which he can grow into his certainty and take all the time he needs to make just the thrust he wants to make, just so?

A good book on knife fighting/sword fighting might be something you'd find interesting to read. There's a lot of psychology involved in sword fighting ( psychology in the broad sense and not in the "why amn't I happy with my vacuous life" sense. )...

[SqzMyLemon]

Ah, I see your point Nemo. I don't think it's a desire to yield the initiative, either consciously or subconciously, but rather the worry about mounting an operation that won't yield the desired results. I figure I have one good strike, I just want to make sure the effort pays off.

I definitely know that if I do nothing, as you imply I may not, the outcome is inevitable and my opponent will simply continue to move towards preparing for that single strike, just so.

I do worry about him taking advantage of weakness elsewhere to counter my move and that's throwing up a red flag. Then again, I've stated the exact opposite view in the China theatre, where I stated I'd gladly trade bases/territory for a chance to completely surround and destroy large enemy forces. What's the difference? If a Hawaiian operation gains me my objectives for the loss of territory in New Guinea or the Solomons, is that so bad? I'm not prepared to defend them adequately anyway and at one point I wasn't going to really contest them. And success in Hawaii does open up some real possibilities.

It's not a fear of taking a chance, that I'm certainly willing to do. If I don't take a chance and instead play the expected counter, I won't achieve anything more than the disruption to the enemies initiative, as you pointed out. There is always the chance that a strike at Hawaii might completely shatter my opponents sense of well being. If I'm willing to threaten Hawaii at this late stage, just what else might I be capable of. Maybe get him looking over his shoulder for imagined threats.

I know I tend to waffle and contradict myself at times. I'm also not afraid to admit when I'm wrong or voice my concerns or doubts. However, when I get something...really get it...I'm a force to be reckoned with. I admit I'm worried and somewhat uncertain of this operation and if it's the right thing to do. I do know what the future holds if I don't even try. I'm therefore not ready to yield the initiative yet.

Thanks for the pep talk and also completely leaving the decision up to me. The suggestions and advice certainly help in staying on course and providing me the tools to formulate my own path. I'm not bailing on the Hawaii operation yet, and there's still much to do. I certainly know I'll never be in a stronger position this game to achieve a strategic coup such as this.

[SqzMyLemon]

I'm off to the dog park with the pooch, so I'll have an hour and a half to mull things over while avoiding where I'm walking [:D]. I'll post more later.

[Nemo121]

I think the basic issue is that you are still unsure of your one clear goal... Because of that it is difficult for you to decide which COA best serves to meet that somewhat murky goal.

What is the ONE simple, clear thing you want to accomplish over the next six to twelve months?

As to leaving it up to you. Well my goal is to have you think through it yourself. You're not Greyjoy where learning to think it through is something for, perhaps, two years time. You've already done the basic learning he will engage in a few months from now.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
One question, why would the loss of Fiji or Noumea be past value at this stage?

Quick comment before I go on with this answer. I enjoyed Nemo's posts above and agree very much with his observations. Dunno about the knife fighting analogy, but his broader observations are sound IMO. Good questions for you to answer.

As for this question, quoted above: Your efforts at capturing Noumea or Fiji in 1943 are unlikely to rouse significant concern or fear on your opponent's part. More likely, he will identify it as an opportunity to begin attriting your forces where they stand-very close to his LOS and within striking distance of other supporting bases. You stand to gain little by sticking your neck out-and reinforcing it- in a spoiling attack in the SoPac theatre. There's nothing about Noumea that he can't counter with movement on Koumac. If he reinforces the Santa Cruz islands, he's got you cut off to the East, South and West-why should he fear your lodgement in such a predicament?

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

What is the ONE simple, clear thing you want to accomplish over the next six to twelve months?

Chuck Norris would know what to do. [:D]