Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[ny59giants]

AA Ranges

Allied:
90mm M1A1 AA........33,800
3in M1918 AA........29,800
80mm AA.............28,000
75mm AA.............28,000 (another model goes only to 20K)
3.7" Mk II AA.......24,000
40mm Bofor AA.......9,800
40mm M1 Bofor.......9,800
37mm M1 Colt AA.....8,600
2 pdr AA............8,000
20mm Mk 4 Oerlikon..6,200
0.5in M51 Quad AAMG.4,200
0.5in M2HB AAMG.....3,600
12.7mm AAMG.........3,600
Lewis AAMG..........2,100
Bren AAMG...........2,100
Vickers AAMG........2,100

Japan:
10.0cm T14 AA.......31,000
75mm T88 AA.........25,000
40mm T91 AA.........8,000
25mm T96 AA.........7,000
20mm T98 AA.........6,200
13.2mm T93 AAMG.....3,200
7.7mm T99 AAMG......2,100

[JohnDillworth]

18th Division: Parked at Palembang (except the Recce unit, which is at Benkolen but prepping for Palembang).

Not saying your wrong, but I am sure you are now in the love with the idea of Fortress Palembang and are convinced it will never fall.[:'(]

[Canoerebel]

Actually, I'm not certain of much right now. Here's what I know:

1) Fortress Palembang will hold a long time.
2) Once it falls, the Allies will lose a ton of points for units.

By no means do I think it can't be conquered. In fact, at this point it certainly can be if the enemy brings enough soon enough. But there's still some question as to what the enemy will do. If the enemy tarries long enough, the Allies may be able to do a few things that could help Palembang's prospects. A decisive carrier strike vs. capital ships or enemy carriers will help (because it will further slow Steve down). A big invasion of Malaya/Burma would also help, but that's at least two months away, maybe more.

[Nemo121]

Interesting explanation. It certainly explains the focus on Port Blair.

[paullus99]

Actually, you should only have to hold long enough to develop a "critical mass" somewhere else to divert his attention. Of course, we can't know at this point where his true strategic focus lies (his "hail mary" play), but if you can raise enough hell on the western side of the map, it'll put a big wrench in any of his works on the eastern side.

Keep him dancing to your tune & it'll pay huge dividends.

[Canoerebel]

2/24/42

Eastern DEI: A combat TF including two IJN BBs sighted at Salajar Island; Mini-KB sighted at Kendari; Japan has been reconning Dem Passar (east of Java) for a week or longer. All this paints a picture of possible IJN activity in this region soon - and this is exactly where I'd like to see a major IJN force (but not the KB!). Allied carriers are 15 hexes south of Tjilitjap and will move five hexes north tonight, awaiting developments and a chance to pounce.

Western DEI: An Allied CL/DD force is leaving Oosthaven tonight to take a stab at IJ shipping at Mersing. I don't see evidence that the enemy ships are protected, but they could be. Nevertheless, it's worth a shot. Big enemy air raid on Singapore dashed my hopes of rapid fort building.

China: I'm still waiting to see whether the IJN stack late at Changsha moves north to Chengte or the Sian front or, alternatively, circles around to strike Kweilin. As soon as the stack is another hex further away from Changsha, I'm going on the offensive in that area. Changsha has 5,000 AV. Japan has just 850 AV in the hex (13th Div. plus two mixed brigades). There are other weak IJ concentrations in the two hexes to the south.

[paullus99]

How's your supply situation in Singapore? Any chance of a supply run or air supply?

[Canoerebel]

I forgot to mention that Japan attacked again at Clark Field, once again at 1:2 odds.  This time the Japanese suffered disproportionately heavy casualties.  Steve is so anxious to take Luzon that he's skewering himself.  If he'd let his troops rest for five to seven days and shock attack, he'd have it.  But he's trying to get it immediately and it's not working for him.  I bet he's chewing nails.
 
Right now, Singers has about 29k supply.  I will begin air transfer pretty soon, I think.  By the way, Japan has about 2,600 AV present.  The Allies have 1,000 AV behind three forts.  Prep for my guys should be very high; I don't know about his guys.

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

princep, Steve hasn't voiced any concerns since very early in the game when a couple of unusual Allied strategies caught his eye (sending Luzon ships east towards Midway and a combat ship raid against his shipping at Babeldoab).  I believe he's a fan/student of the actual war and tends to enjoy a game that is a decent reflection of what happened in the Pacific.  I think he's just putting things together about Sumatra.  If he is indeed a traditionalist, he's not going to like the total non-traditional nature the game is taking.  That's my assessment, anyhow, and I could be wrong.  He may turn out to love the challenge, but I'm guessing he will be chagrined and enter into a period of re-evalutation to determine if this is the kind of game he enjoys.  But he's also a reliable player with a stellar record who will want to see things through unless some mutual agreement is reach at some point. 

I think that you will see no complaints about a major stand at Palembang, because it is what could have been done with the UK 18th Division (probably should have been done) rather than send them to Singapore. Steve's approach (as is mine) is not that the game should follow the course of the war, but that the units should be used in a historically plausible manner. That's all.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a screen shot showing a developing situation in the DEI - the opportunity to pounce that the Allies have been hoping for may come true. It's not guaranteed - perhaps the enemy ships pull back; perhaps this is part of an ambush involving the KB; perhaps weather or luck intervene....but this is what the Allies were hoping to encounter when the decision was made to move the American carriers to the DEI.

[JohnDillworth]

because it is what could have been done with the UK 18th Division (probably should have been done) rather than send them to Singapore

Keep in mind there was a lot of racial stereotyping going on (Japanese pilots have bad eyesight or can't see at night). I'm sure the British high command thought the 18th division was just insurance, there was no way these near-sighted ants were going to overrun Singapore. I haven't read the definitive history but I don't the the British contemplated, even for a second, that Singapore could ever possibly fall and maybe troops should not be wasted on a lost cause. The Allies were stunned at the abilities of the Empire and her men, planes and ships and it took the better part of a year to figure out what they were up against. Once they reconciled that they knew they were in for a real fight. I belive there once once an expression "Golden Gate in 48".

[Canoerebel]

Note that the correct heading of that IJ carrier TF is southwest, not west. The force could be raiding towards southwest Oz, could be leading an invasion force, or could indeed be heading into the waters south of Java. My carriers will take a ESE course and hope for a clash whether the enemy moves west or southwest.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/42

Eastern DEI: The orders have been issued. The Allied carriers will seek battle, hoping that this is not a clever ambush. I've set CAP to 50%, reaction to zero, home port Tjilitjap. I've loaded up the airfields in eastern Java with patrol aircraft and Dutch bombers set to naval search. I don't know where the enemy force is heading - my best guess is a patrol south of Java or covering an invasion of one of the island off eastern Java. If either of those is correct, a battle should take place. If the IJN force retires or moves on a more southerly course, probably no go. I have roughly 350 carrier aircraft; I count roughly 100 for the enemy (though that could be wildly inaccurate). I have my carriers in four TFs. A number of other TFs (combat, ASW) are also present.

Western DEI: A Dutch CL/DD force will visit Mersing tonight, hoping to tangle with under-protected merchant shipping, but Japanese combat ships could be present. As noted previously, I have a heck of alot of transports making their final runs in to Benkolen and Oosthaven, so the next five or six days will be busy.

India: A Marine raider battalion on transports should reached map's edge from Capetown and will arrive at Bombay in less than a week. The first of many American infantry units destined for India.

China: The IJA stack late at Changsha is still a hex to the north, suggesting that it's taking the slower yellow road to the east rather than the quick "good road" to the north. This, in turn, makes me wonder if the force won't circle back to strike at Kweilin or some other base in southern China.

NoPac: Quiet here, though the IJ airfield at Amchitka went to level one about a week ago. I have a BB-flagged TF in the Bering Sea waiting for a chance to hit an IJ supply convoy heading to Amchitka, but no targets thus far.

SoPac: Japanese planes frequently sighted over Suva. I know part or all of the KB has been in this area in recent weeks, though no fresh sightings (I'd rather them be here than joining in the fray in the DEI). I think Steve will be moving this way at some point, unless he scrubs the plans due to the developing maelstrom around Java and Sumatra.

[paullus99]

The next couple of turns should be very interesting - very impressed with your moves here, could certainly pay dividends

[Cribtop]

I think this is a good move with well calculated risks likely to result in a devastating blow to the IJN. Remember - if he is about to invade eastern Java, you may be able to pursue and hammer the invasion fleet and covering forces after dispatching the CVLs. Good luck, but I doubt you'll need it as the conditions are favorable (favourable for the British ships).

[Canoerebel]

2/26/42

This was as good a day as I've ever experienced early in the war. Everything came together. It was marvelous....

Western DEI: The day got off to a great start when a Dutch CL/DD force tangled with two juicy IJ transport TFs at Mersing. By my count, the Japanese suffered heavy damage or sinking to 5 SC, 2 PB, 21 xAK, 5 xAKL, 1 AK, and 4 xAP. It was a brutal whipping. My estimate is that at least ten of these ships went under including xAK Brisbane Maru and AK Kaga Maru. The Japanese ships, though at the front lines, were unescorted.

Eastern DEI: It turns out that the Japanese force sighted southeast of Java yesterday was an invasion bound for Dem Pasar. There was a Mini KB to the north, a combat TF at Dem Pasar, and the previously sighted Mini KB to the south. The latter included BBs Fuso and Ise and CVLs Zuiho and Ryujo. The Allied carrier fleet ended up seven hexes to the southwest and got off large strikes in both the morning and evening phases. Both CVLs suffered "massive fuel explosions" with both showing "heavy fires, heavy damage." Ryujo wasn't listed in some of the PM strikes, so she might have gone under immediately. Since the Japanese carriers didn't launch any strikes, and since the aircraft loss table for the day showed 51 Kates destroyed on the ground, I have high hopes that both went under. Also damaged were both BBs (each took many 1,000 lb. bombs and were on fire, with Fuso reported heavy fires, though my guess would be light/moderate damage), CA Myoko (reporting "heavy fires/heavy damage" and surely crippled), CL Nagara (on fire after taking a 1k bomb), and DD Oyashio (took a 1k bomb and sank immediately).

Immediate Impact: This Mini KB is crippled and will limp away. I am assuming the enemy will recall all his forces - including the invasion transports and other Mini KB, though there is a chance he will stay and try to fight, hoping that his LBA might get in some licks. An Allied combat TF flagged by CAs Indianapolis and Canberra (and including the intrepid Boise) will raid Dempasar. The Allied carriers will move north to a point four hexes south of Soerabaja, where I've tried to arrange some supplementary land-based CAP. I'd like to strike at anything that remains in the area and then vacate the premises (though some combat ships are likely to pay a visit to Soerabaja to refuel).

Long-Range Impact: Thus far, this is a stunning victory for the Allies. Throughout the DEI, a strong blow has been delivered, some of which will have an impact throughout the war. If Zuiho, Ryujo, and Myoko go under, Japan will suffer for the rest of the war. Japan will have to reevaluate any offensive plans in the region until it will be able to negate the threat of the Allied carriers. In the short term, I think the Allies need to strike while Japan is reeling - primarily by using surface combat assets to hit any exposed shipping. The Allies may also increase use of bombardment TFs and bombing raids. Japan will probably have to counter by calling in the KB.

KB: Currently, two IJ TFs reported south of Fiji with another to the west. No carriers reported, but they have to be there. No way Steve would send big assets into Indian country unprotected. Steve may elect to continue with whatever invasion he's undertaking (probably Fiji), so the Battle of Dempasar may have been just a little late to save Fiji, but I bet the KB is called to the DEI immediately thereafter.

China: The IJA stack late of Changsha is marching across a forested hexside to reach the hexes to the south of Changsha. This is an inefficient maneuver, as it would have been much easier to leave them at Changsha, move a unit already to the south into Changsha to open the hexside, and then easily march south. But...okay...they went the long and hard way. He's going to position this stack to attack Henyang or Siangtan, but I can shift troops around to meet that threat. I have about 8,800 AV present in the three hexes now; I think the enemy has perhaps 7,000 AV. Henyang and Changsha have five forts; Siangtan has three but will increase quicily to four once I increase it's garrison (which is currently 1600 AV).

Luzon: The enemy shock attacks at Clark Field, achieving 1:2 odds but inflicting greater casualties on the Allies. Japan is getting close, but I don't think they'll take the hex if Steve tries another attack in two days. I think the next attack will come off at no better than 1:1 odds since his troops were pretty badly disrupted. He needs to wait until early March, but he's acting desperate.

[Canoerebel]

Giving this further thought, I'm definately going to try to use bombardment TFs. One of my first targets will be the Japanese army at Singapore....

[SqzMyLemon]

Nice victory Canoerebel. I had been following Chez's AAR exclusively, but awhile ago I decided I was probably missing out on too many game improving discussions/strategies here so I'm back to following both. I've learned personally that using Mini-KB to spearhead DEI invasions without first attaining good airbases for an LBA umbrella and ascertaining the location of Allied CV's is high on the folly list. It wasn't wise to be dangling the Japanese CVL's like that and kudos for recognizing the chance for a decisive strike. I can't help but think with your Palembang defence and this recent bludgeoning that the fat lady might just be called upon to start warming up. A lot of game left, but these early Allied counterblows are laying the seeds for a future Japanese nightmare.

[JohnDillworth]

Hmmm, things look they might be coming to a close here. Time to find another AAR or 2. Any suggestions folks?

[paullus99]

Congratulations - you're careful planning certainly made this possible. Time to maximize your window of opportunity here.