Islands of Destiny: RA 5.0 Japanese Side

[John 3rd]

He has never cared about losses.

I plan to ask if he intends to invade. If he does then we fight on waiting to see what happens. If not, then we'll wrap up sometime in Feb-Mar 1945.

I am still producing near 1,000 Fighters a month. There are significant stockpiles of all the 1st line fighters presently. Think I've got about 7-800 Franks and Sams with lesser numbers of Tony and George.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

He has never cared about losses.

I plan to ask if he intends to invade. If he does then we fight on waiting to see what happens. If not, then we'll wrap up sometime in Feb-Mar 1945.

You would ask him that and expect an answer?

[JohnDillworth]

Leyte Gulf was not a bad idea;

No, it was not. Japan was staging tons of aircraft for the Philippines on Formosa. Had not the Big Blue Fleet made that thunder run and destroyed those aircraft AND the IJN had not turned away from those vicious escort carriers that fight may have gone on a whole lot longer. The Leyte plan worked....the final execution failed

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

He has never cared about losses.

I plan to ask if he intends to invade. If he does then we fight on waiting to see what happens. If not, then we'll wrap up sometime in Feb-Mar 1945.

You would ask him that and expect an answer?

Yes. He knows that I plan to start another game immediately after we conclude.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

And CR could fight the carriers and still have surface ships left for an anti-supply campaign.

I think john has done more to prosecute the war using the KB to escort fuel and oil back to the home islands. I can't figure out if CR is just not aware, just doesn't care or just doesn't play the late game often but for the life of me I can not understand why thee tankers are running back and forth like the Carnival Cruise Lines. John has pulled back about a million gallons of fuel and oil in the last 6 months in not more and has maybe lost one or two tankers.

The Carnival Cruise line is helping the Allies to win the war more quickly.

1. It is sub optimum play to focus on moving oil and fuel to Japan whilst allowing the front line to be destroyed.

2. It is Nero fiddling whilst Rome burns to allow Japanese industry to fall within range of an Allied strategic air campaign.

3. It is irrelevant to have heavy industry capable of working at full capacity when it is impossible to build airframes because the aircraft and engine factories have been destroyed. Without air cover all the other industrial facilities which are not directly dependent on fuel/oil will, when damaged/destroyed, both yield plentiful VPs and adversely impact the fighting.

Alfred

4. Fuel and oil reserves are of zero value in VP terms.

I think what is being overlooked here is the difference between "sunk costs" (no pun intended) and "opportunity costs".

The opportunity cost for John bringing home fuel and oil from the DEI has been minimal. Is it a bad thing to have a steady supply of fuel and oil returning to the home islands in 1945? Not at all. If it can be done on the cheap and is not resisted by the Allies, then he should continue as long as he can. While there are no VPs for fuel and / or oil reserves at game's end, I don't think that John will have much of a reserve of either if the war goes into mid-1945. In the meantime, if he's given this material gratis, he should endeavor to bring it home. Yes, the methodology for converting fuel / oil into HI and supply is inefficient, but it's there. John's largely intact LI will continue to make supply with the surfeit of resources he has too.

The sunk costs of what John shoulda / woulda / coulda done in the PI and DEI / SE Asia / East Asia some time ago are well known. I agree that the time for optimal engagement of the Allied fleet with KB has come and gone. Same with the conduct of the ground war in China, Formosa, SE Asia, etc. Squandered opportunities? Perhaps. But that's a different issue altogether.

It is irrelevant to have HI maximal capacity to build airframes when the aircraft and engine factories have been burnt down. But that hasn't happened yet. Until it does, and John exhausts his supply of HI, then I see no harm in continuing to bring in oil and fuel.

It's up to Canoerebel to make this fuel / oil import proposition expensive for John. Until he does (and he hasn't yet), there's no problem with doing it. Has Dan squandered an opportunity to cut off the lifeblood of Japan? Is Dan fighting a very one-dimensional war? Perhaps.

[Bullwinkle58]

Yeah, opportunity cost and sunk cost differences were covered in my MBA program.

The opportunity cost of shepherding oil and fuel is pretty clear and was explained--IJN naval assets could have been attacking and sinking, or mission killing, Allied naval assets now engaged in disassembly of the Japanese economy. Any ratio above 1:2 would have been a net gain for Japan in simple terms, and there would have been disruption and morale effects on CR that are not quantifiable at this point.

If Japan needs HI to manufacture now that's economic malpractice. If Japan needs HI-generated supply at this point that's pretty common. So the question becomes, is the supply from the fuel worth the lost opportunity to damage the momentum and VP store of the Allies?

You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

[John 3rd]

We got in two fairly quiet turns yesterday. Rather nice in all reality.

Yamaguchi is on his way to raise some HE**. The Fleet Carriers are moving to Singapore. Orders to follow...

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

And yet they keep coming up again and again. Belaboring what John probably *should* have done 5-6 months ago in the game and what he should have prioritized then is an example.

Canoerebel has built a lodgement in China that will not be reversed. His Death Star is probably unassailable at this point of the game. Even with a combined LBA/Kami/KB effort and some good die rolls this is probably a moot issue. Even if John wanted an apocalyptic end-of-times confrontation with the Allied 1.0x10^6, I don't think he'd do more than scratch some paint at this point. Is it worth a try? Maybe. But probably not.

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

The operative question is whether the future value of supply for the home islands was worth the past / lost opportunity to stall out the Allied naval juggernaut. I don't know. I think the costs likely incurred in attempting to attack Allied shipping with KB in the DEI some months ago would have been severe with short-lasting benefits.

Morale effects on CR? Not hardly. He's hardly a shrinking violet in the face of crippling digital losses. He would have found a way to spin it as a victory, whether Pyrrhic or otherwise in reality.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

+1

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

And yet they keep coming up again and again. Belaboring what John probably *should* have done 5-6 months ago in the game and what he should have prioritized then is an example.

AARs are, among other things, archives of gameplay. This one, and his, are widely read. I read both; I don't think you do. His is chock full of woulda coulda shoulda as well. When I talk about what could have been I'm not pinging on John.

Canoerebel has built a lodgement in China that will not be reversed. His Death Star is probably unassailable at this point of the game. Even with a combined LBA/Kami/KB effort and some good die rolls this is probably a moot issue.

I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have. If Japan massed them, fueled for a Full dash in, AND prepared a 500-1000 plane kami strike, Japan could wreck a lot of USN plans. 2:1 VPs. It might tangentially affect the China effort in terms of supply. It might divert USN support for US Army strat bombing of the HI. Slow down the VP train fro a month or two. Give a little breathing room for Japan to mass more fighters east of the strat-bombing "front line", getting ready for B-24s to be in range. A whole host of dominoes. It's a better plan than cruising the DEI plinking LSTs.

Japan is going to lose this game. But how they lose can still be interesting.

Even if John wanted an apocalyptic end-of-times confrontation with the Allied 1.0x10^6, I don't think he'd do more than scratch some paint at this point. Is it worth a try? Maybe. But probably not.

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

We agree on this. The August 31, 1945 line for Allied decisive victory is really important, and something for Japan to strive for. In the rearview this was a reasonable objective back pre-PI.

The operative question is whether the future value of supply for the home islands was worth the past / lost opportunity to stall out the Allied naval juggernaut. I don't know. I think the costs likely incurred in attempting to attack Allied shipping with KB in the DEI some months ago would have been severe with short-lasting benefits.

I don't think he should have attacked Allied shipping in the DEI with the KB either. I think he should have made a stand in the PI, supported by myriad good LBA fields. Held off the front edge of B-29 basing. Delayed or prevented the Formosa operation.

Additionally, bringing some fuel home might have made some sense in some scenarios. But bringing home mass quantities less sense, given he probably won't have the months he needs to shove it through dwindling HI factories under firebombing attack.

Morale effects on CR? Not hardly. He's hardly a shrinking violet in the face of crippling digital losses. He would have found a way to spin it as a victory, whether Pyrrhic or otherwise in reality.

It's interesting reading both sides and seeing the differing emphasis in each. Things one side thinks are determinative aren't mentioned in the other. CR is a planner, yes. He is methodical. He likes massive elephant-like campaigns. (And he constantly compares an amphibious naval campaign in mid-20th C. to Civil War battles, which I never understand.) When you play the Allies in the late game some of that is inevitable given the OOB you're given and the timetable you must keep. But you can't speed up prep, and you must have prep to land. You must have your true amphibs; xAPs don't suffice. And you must have air cover in the kami era. We can disagree how much CR would have been shaken by a 15-carrier loss battle (sunk or mission killed.) But he would have been affected.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have.

I haven't looked into it at all... John posted this, and I am parroting him.

To fight the deathstar, you need to prepare first. I don't think John was ever prepared at any point to fight the deathstar, even obliquely, even now.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

And yet they keep coming up again and again. Belaboring what John probably *should* have done 5-6 months ago in the game and what he should have prioritized then is an example.

Canoerebel has built a lodgement in China that will not be reversed. His Death Star is probably unassailable at this point of the game. Even with a combined LBA/Kami/KB effort and some good die rolls this is probably a moot issue. Even if John wanted an apocalyptic end-of-times confrontation with the Allied 1.0x10^6, I don't think he'd do more than scratch some paint at this point. Is it worth a try? Maybe. But probably not.

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

The operative question is whether the future value of supply for the home islands was worth the past / lost opportunity to stall out the Allied naval juggernaut. I don't know. I think the costs likely incurred in attempting to attack Allied shipping with KB in the DEI some months ago would have been severe with short-lasting benefits.

Morale effects on CR? Not hardly. He's hardly a shrinking violet in the face of crippling digital losses. He would have found a way to spin it as a victory, whether Pyrrhic or otherwise in reality.

Totally concur with this set of thoughts and observations.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have.

I haven't looked into it at all... John posted this, and I am parroting him.

To fight the deathstar, you need to prepare first. I don't think John was ever prepared at any point to fight the deathstar, even obliquely, even now.

When I get home from work I'll go thru what--exactly--is left of the Fleet.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have.

I haven't looked into it at all... John posted this, and I am parroting him.

To fight the deathstar, you need to prepare first. I don't think John was ever prepared at any point to fight the deathstar, even obliquely, even now.

Sorry. I was going off your post. Still, nineteen is a huge number on the verge of 1945.

I agree on the second point. Even calling the DS that is a psych-out. It's big, but it bleeds.

[John 3rd]

I did a one end-to-the-other end check of the map and here is what remains of the Kaigun:

KB-1
Akagi, Amagi (instead of Kaga), Hiryu, Soryu, Aso, and Amagi
2 CA, 4 CL, and 6 DD 306 Planes

KB-2
Shokaku, Renkaku, Taikaku, Ryukaku, Unryu, Katsuragi, Kasigi, and Ikoma
4 CA and 6 DD 510 Planes

KB-1/2 will join tomorrow and we'll balance out the CVs some.

KB-3
Junyo and CVLs Shoho, Ryuho, Rhujo, Ibuki, Kurama
2 CA and 6 DD 242 Planes

CTF Total: 1,058 Planes

STF-1
Musashi, BC Ikoma, and 6 DD

STF-2
Ise, Nagato, and 7 DD

STF-3
Kirishima and Haruna (both damaged in Home Islands), 1 CA, and 5 DD


There are 31 I-Boats and 2 Ro-Class left

Total Combatants Left:
15 CV
4 CVL
3 BB
3 BC
9 CA
4 CL
35 DD


NOTES ON CVs:
This version of RA, as stated many times, is not at all what the Mods are presently. In BTS, BTSL, and RA there are now ZERO Unryu-Class CVs. It settles into 6 Shokaku-KAI Class and 3 CVL for the building program as well as allowing two CAV to convert over to a variant of the Hiryu-Class.

Pre-War CV Present in December 1944: Shokaku, Akagi, Amagi, Hiryu, Soryu, Ryujo, Ryuho, and Shoho
Shokaku-KAI: Taikaku, Ryukaku, and Renkaku
Unryu-Class: Aso, Amagi, Unryu, Katsuragi, Kasigi, and Ikoma
Ibuki-Class CVL: Ibuki and Kurama

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

And yet they keep coming up again and again. Belaboring what John probably *should* have done 5-6 months ago in the game and what he should have prioritized then is an example.

Canoerebel has built a lodgement in China that will not be reversed. His Death Star is probably unassailable at this point of the game. Even with a combined LBA/Kami/KB effort and some good die rolls this is probably a moot issue. Even if John wanted an apocalyptic end-of-times confrontation with the Allied 1.0x10^6, I don't think he'd do more than scratch some paint at this point. Is it worth a try? Maybe. But probably not.

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

The operative question is whether the future value of supply for the home islands was worth the past / lost opportunity to stall out the Allied naval juggernaut. I don't know. I think the costs likely incurred in attempting to attack Allied shipping with KB in the DEI some months ago would have been severe with short-lasting benefits.

Morale effects on CR? Not hardly. He's hardly a shrinking violet in the face of crippling digital losses. He would have found a way to spin it as a victory, whether Pyrrhic or otherwise in reality.

I have a game that I attacked China through Southeast Asia -- forget landing on the ports like CanoeRebel did in this game. . That game was over July 1944. From that experience I can say with confidence it does not matter if the Allies interdict supply. There is enough victory points in China right now given the Allies plus to the numerator and IJ minus from the denominator to assure victory. In fact, I would propose the Allies risking a CV exchange would be fool hardy because the Allies would never get 2:1 exchange to balance out the victory points. I suspect from my previous experience that China will collapse soon, and this game will be over. But I read the AAR's to learn something new everyday

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I did a one end-to-the-other end check of the map and here is what remains of the Kaigun:

KB-1
Akagi, Amagi (instead of Kaga), Hiryu, Soryu, Aso, and Amagi
2 CA, 4 CL, and 6 DD 306 Planes

KB-2
Shokaku, Renkaku, Taikaku, Ryukaku, Unryu, Katsuragi, Kasigi, and Ikoma
4 CA and 6 DD 510 Planes

KB-1/2 will join tomorrow and we'll balance out the CVs some.

KB-3
Junyo and CVLs Shoho, Ryuho, Rhujo, Ibuki, Kurama
2 CA and 6 DD 242 Planes

CTF Total: 1,058 Planes

STF-1
Musashi, BC Ikoma, and 6 DD

STF-2
Ise, Nagato, and 7 DD

STF-3
Kirishima and Haruna (both damaged in Home Islands), 1 CA, and 5 DD


There are 31 I-Boats and 2 Ro-Class left

Total Combatants Left:
15 CV
4 CVL
3 BB
3 BC
9 CA
4 CL
35 DD


NOTES ON CVs:
This version of RA, as stated many times, is not at all what the Mods are presently. In BTS, BTSL, and RA there are now ZERO Unryu-Class CVs. It settles into 6 Shokaku-KAI Class and 3 CVL for the building program as well as allowing two CAV to convert over to a variant of the Hiryu-Class.

Pre-War CV Present in December 1944: Shokaku, Akagi, Amagi, Hiryu, Soryu, Ryujo, Ryuho, and Shoho
Shokaku-KAI: Taikaku, Ryukaku, and Renkaku
Unryu-Class: Aso, Amagi, Unryu, Katsuragi, Kasigi, and Ikoma
Ibuki-Class CVL: Ibuki and Kurama

Thanks for the OOB update, John.

What is your kamikaze total-daitai suitable for kamikazes, airframes available and 'trained' pilots for the task? Could you, on relatively short notice, put together >1,000 in a given area?

I'm assuming you could put 1,000 IJAAF LBA together for naval LRCAP? I know, it's unreliable. But still it's something to consider. If you could get 1,000 LRCAP IJAAF fighters over a combined KB death star in one hex, have kamikazes in range of the enemy and KB's organic CAP/escort, that may make a palatable proposition very near the home islands.

As he has done very little against the home islands' airfields and aircraft production facilities, keeping KB nearby and providing an ad hoc LRCAP may make this a possibility. I'd at least consider the possibility under these circumstances.

What do you think the Allied OOB is in the 1.0x10^6 now?

Of course that would mean that you will likely be done with KB after the exchange. So are you a 'bandage off fast' or bandage off slow' sort of guy?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I have a game that I attacked China through Southeast Asia -- forget landing on the ports like CanoeRebel did in this game. . That game was over July 1944. From that experience I can say with confidence it does not matter if the Allies interdict supply. There is enough victory points in China right now given the Allies plus to the numerator and IJ minus from the denominator to assure victory. In fact, I would propose the Allies risking a CV exchange would be fool hardy because the Allies would never get 2:1 exchange to balance out the victory points. I suspect from my previous experience that China will collapse soon, and this game will be over. But I read the AAR's to learn something new everyday

In mid-December CR was about 102k to 69k. 33k lead or so. He has much of China already. Shanghai is a lot, but I don't think he can win just with China. Taking China is also expensive given the device 50% rule.

Strat VPs at that time were nearly 20k, and getting them is extremely cheap in VP terms. 2 VP per 4E.

I agree he'd be foolish to seek a carrier battle. I'm proposing the choice not be his. [:)]

[John 3rd]

Shanghai will fall within the week. He is still working around southern China and I am simply fighting to occupy his movement and TIME. Considering the firepower he has deployed (we're talking 15-20 Allied Divisions PLUS China it is amazing how slowly this is going.

If there was to be any fight like detailed above, I would prefer to fly off ALL KB's planes and send the empty carriers up to the Kuriles where they could simply sit and NOT become victory points.

[John 3rd]

He has been on the full offensive now for 10 weeks and here is the situation. The map is very busy. The BLUE arrows are thrusts and their direction. The RED circles are Japanese Fortress locations occupying HUGE numbers of Allied troops. The RED line shows the position moving up to Northern China.

A solid line is forming north to dig-in and try to hold the enemy out of Manchuria.

One other element to think about is that this Mod has high garrison costs for either side. Michael hates them! Dan will have to leave more and more units behind to hold these locations as he advances. They will, undoubtedly, be Chinese units but they will get draw away as he takes more-and-more.