The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

The two TFs to the left are merchants or transports bound for Ponape or points west. The TF to the east is unidentified, but believed to be one ship. I don't know if she's fleeing or trying to confuse me. Thus far she hasn't tangled with any of my TFs, for which I'm grateful.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: obvert

No one will know if he's got a good enough handle on the economy through all of this and can hold onto some semblance of the KB for long enough to push you back a few times until he proves it. All else is spin.

This is sort of the unknown and won't really be clear until later in the campaign. John has been grinding away and I think there is a cost to that. The cost of the Sumatra campaign can't be so much measured in men and material for John (certainly will be painful for Dan) but in the resources that he has expended. Now there is speculation about him going on the offensive. In the real world if Japan had to fight like this their economy would have been close to shot in mid 43. As it was they were critically short of fuel by then. My questions is how long can the Japanese side continue like this without killing themselves come 1/45? In my last campaign my opponent was much less engaged than John has been and was still out of everything when he surrendered on 8/1/45.

My two cents. When you consider the massive benefits that John is working with in RA. (All sorts of extra carriers and surface ships, upgraded fighters and such, in a normal game I would expect him to hold a much better position by now. Dan has punked him a bit and thrown him off. The risk was great but considering the position that a Japanese player should be holding at this point, I give Dan the nod for having outplayed John. Not to say that John has not done too badly and is perfectly capable of finding a way to humble the upstart Allies. But when you consider that India and Oz are untouched, Burma is contested, and that many Allied players have totally lost China by mid 1943 (I know, I just did.[;)]) Dan looks to be in pretty good shape to me. The unit losses in Sumatra while painful can be recouped. If Dan can contest what he now holds I personally think he is great shape come 1/44. The end of the year will see him have 100 more DDs, A few decent fast BBs, a dozen CAs and CLs and around 8 more carriers and 10 more CVEs. The next big battle will determine who hold the initiative for the rest of the year.

By the end of 1943 the game becomes a naval affair. It does not matter how many divisions Japan has or where they are located once the Allies seize control of the sea. If John finds a way to smash Dan's fleet, then he will be in good shape.

[crsutton]

[&:]

[Canoerebel]

7/3/43

Operation Roller Coaster: No major achievements today and a few niggling irritations. An IJN 3-DD TF harasses an empty Allied amphibious TF withdrawing from Ailinglaplap to Jaluit, sinking an APA. The embedded USN DD did a good job of blunting the attack. No enemy air attacks of note today. No sign of major enemy combat vessels. Its been years since I've invaded an enemy-held atoll, and it seems I forgot that if you stand down your attacking infantry, they'll still shock attack if any amphibs carrying troops (even if just support) continue to unload. So the two Allied units at Ailing and Maloelap that needed to rest so badly instead shock attack. Now they REALLY need some rest. The attack at Maloelap does lower forts from 3 to 2 (the base started at 5).

A lot of supply has come ashore now at Jaluit, Mili and Wotje. But unloading will continue until the enemy arrives in force. Once the Allies depart the Marshalls (which would be soon if KB arrives or may be weeks in the future if KB doesn't show), these bases may largely be on their own for awhile, depending on supply, strong garrisons and Allied LBA to ward off major threats.

The AKEs and AE disband at Jaluit. To my surprise, though, the base (level four with a USN base force that has Nav Support) will not reload main gun ammo on the BBs. I had no trouble reloading at Sabang (a level two port with AKE). The only difference is that Sabang had a tremendous amount of NavSupport. Too, none of my BBs, even if detached, can dock at this level four port. I'd feel better if the main guns were 100%. But at least AA, 8" guns and torpedoes are 100%. Surface action is less of a threat (since seven BBs are in Sumatra) than air attack.

Recon shows Eniwetok, Ponape, Roi Namur and Kusaie garrisoned but not to any uber extent. I'm ready to move on Roi Namur, but this particular amphibious force is loaded on xAP and xAK. I'm weighing whether to unload them and then reload them. If I do that, I could go ahead and move on Makin (undefended, I think) and Tarawa. But if I move south, John will have time to strengthen Ponape and perhaps other northern islands and KB might arrive in the meantime. I prefer moving north now and then, when those missions are finished, rolling down south. This will take some thought. I don't think there's a perfect solution.

Allied landings will commenced at Baker Island tomorrow. A small infantry battalion will land to test defenses. I'm expecting a decent infantry unit garrison but no CD guns. If things go well, a US Army RCT will begin landing the day after tomorrow.

CV Victorious (previously misidentified by me as Formidable) and CVL Independence will unit with the main USN carrier TFs tonight or tomorrow, boosting fighter protection by roughly 70 and adding some Avengers. I've also reconfigured the LBA fighters a bit, moving a P-38G and a P-38H squadron forward to Wotje, as I'm leaning on moving north towards Roi Namur. One F4F-4 unit will remain at Mili to provide modest protection on that side.

Recon shows a decent number of enemy aircraft at Roi Namur but none or few at Ponape and Kusaie. I'll recon Tarawa tomorrow.

Operation Circus: A quiet day up north. IJN subs dropped mines at Ulak, which claimed one barge. Allied sweeps overcome a few Japanese fighters over Amchitka. Dutch Harbor garrison down to 52k (this is a mundane detail, but its one of those important housekeeping details that helps demonstrate the immense complexity of this game).

Battle of Sumatra: Five enemy BBs bombard Sabang to little effect (they didn't rearm after yesterday's effort, so the effects are dampened considerably). Enemy shock attack on the west road against achieves a 1:1 and fails with the Japanese suffering modest losses that are much higher than that suffered by the Allies. At Sabang, supply is at 4.5k, and an enemy ground bombardment messes up Japanese artillery for the third consecutive day. Lots of bombers focus mainly on Sabang, with a few targeting the west road troops. Will John attack tomorrow? Will Sabang fall on July 4th as John has hinted in his emails? Could be. But with 4.5 supply remaining, there's a chance (a chance only) that Sabang might hold one more time.

[Yaab]

Uhm, a Haskell-class APA had a crew of 56 officers, 480 enlisted. Imagine the outrage in RL had she sunk just like that due to RADM Canoerebel's sloppines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haskell-c ... _transport

EDIT. I guess the VP haul for sinking such ships should be greater.

[Canoerebel]

I've engaged in nine contested amphibious operations in enemy territory with big airfields in the past five weeks and have lost one APA. I regret losing a good ship, but I don't think that's a record indicating sloppiness.

Writing an AAR is fun, but it draws a certain percentage of readers who enjoying criticizing. It isn't malicious, but come on guys, this is a game. We're playing chess and having a good time doing it.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Yaab

Uhm, a Haskell-class APA had a crew of 56 officers, 480 enlisted. Imagine the outrage in RL had she sunk just like that due to RADM Canoerebel's sloppines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haskell-c ... _transport

EDIT. I guess the VP haul for sinking such ships should be greater.

Sillyness. [:-][8|]

This is a game and as Dan says, he's been incredibly efficient and SAFE in these last operations. They were handled well and surprised the opponent to the point there was NO strong reaction until after the landings. That is about as good as it gets in this game.

It is hard to write one's losses, however small, in an AAR, and open to this kind of reaction. I hope readers can at least see a big picture and also realize there are different philosophies of playing the game. It all washes in the VPs anyway (these ships are plenty expensive already), and there is no press or public to express "outrage."

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: obvert

No one will know if he's got a good enough handle on the economy through all of this and can hold onto some semblance of the KB for long enough to push you back a few times until he proves it. All else is spin.

This is sort of the unknown and won't really be clear until later in the campaign. John has been grinding away and I think there is a cost to that. The cost of the Sumatra campaign can't be so much measured in men and material for John (certainly will be painful for Dan) but in the resources that he has expended. Now there is speculation about him going on the offensive. In the real world if Japan had to fight like this their economy would have been close to shot in mid 43. As it was they were critically short of fuel by then. My questions is how long can the Japanese side continue like this without killing themselves come 1/45? In my last campaign my opponent was much less engaged than John has been and was still out of everything when he surrendered on 8/1/45.

My two cents. When you consider the massive benefits that John is working with in RA. (All sorts of extra carriers and surface ships, upgraded fighters and such, in a normal game I would expect him to hold a much better position by now. Dan has punked him a bit and thrown him off. The risk was great but considering the position that a Japanese player should be holding at this point, I give Dan the nod for having outplayed John. Not to say that John has not done too badly and is perfectly capable of finding a way to humble the upstart Allies. But when you consider that India and Oz are untouched, Burma is contested, and that many Allied players have totally lost China by mid 1943 (I know, I just did.[;)]) Dan looks to be in pretty good shape to me. The unit losses in Sumatra while painful can be recouped. If Dan can contest what he now holds I personally think he is great shape come 1/44. The end of the year will see him have 100 more DDs, A few decent fast BBs, a dozen CAs and CLs and around 8 more carriers and 10 more CVEs. The next big battle will determine who hold the initiative for the rest of the year.

By the end of 1943 the game becomes a naval affair. It does not matter how many divisions Japan has or where they are located once the Allies seize control of the sea. If John finds a way to smash Dan's fleet, then he will be in good shape.

Offensive play is overrated in this game on the Japanese side after the initial necessary conquests. It's fun, and it creates great dramatic moments for us to watch, but it's not as successful as good defensive strategy and counterpunching. A great Japanese player could have the historical perimeter and hold of the Allies until 46 if played well, precisely because of the economic factors you list, but also because there is a strategic advantage in having inside lines, not being overextended, and being able to react quickly.

There is a lot of talk of initiative. That is irrelevant. The Allies should always hold the initiative in 43! If they don't they're clearly not doing well.

Dan has played well, but as any decent chess player knows, the opening sets the stage, and it's the middle and endgame that decide the outcome.

[Canoerebel]

After a lot of thought, I've decided to unload the Roi Namur TF. Two xAPs and two xAKs hold the entirety of the main assault infantry unit (a US RCT). It will take days to unload, and Roi Namur won't be a pushover. So that TF will move two hexes to Jaluit and unload. Then the unit will re-load on APAs and AK/AKAs in a few days.

In the meantime, the Allies will move on Makin and Tarawa. The Tarawa invasion should be a major battle. But the Allies have a US Army division and combat engineers loaded on APA and AKA. Once the base is taken, lots of support is available too. I think Makin is vacant - some paratroops, a CB unit, and a base force unit are slated for it.

There were drawbacks either way I went - north to Roi or south to Tarawa. But after I finally made the decision, I felt settled that Tarawa was the better choice after balancing all pluses and minuses. Half KB South may be about to arrive or it may be in dry dock at Tokyo. It's current position will determine just how much time the Allies have to move about freely. But if John's carriers aren't enroute, I'll keep working this theater for the next couple of weeks.

The two Essex class carriers are 11 days out of Balboa, and another CVL will arrive at San Fran soon. Most likely these ships will go to Pearl or San Fran. I think the Allies will be moving north again before they could reach the Marshalls or Gilberts.

[Canoerebel]

Correction - the main Tarawa assault unit is 6th Australian Division. This is Peanut 1, the very first unit designated for Operation Circus. At the time, it and 7th Aus. Div. were embroiled in combat in Burma in January '43. That's when I came up with the idea of shifting everything I had to the Pacific (originally targeting Hokkaido, but morphing as circumstances evolved).

[Canoerebel]

Once the decision was made to move south to the Gilberts, a few other pieces of the puzzle fit together.

7th USA Div. is prepping for Ponape and is loaded aboard three TFs - one good, two xAP/xAK types. Since Ponape isn't an option until the carriers return from the Gilberts missions, 7th Div. is available for duty in the Marshalls. 7th/A aboard good transports will move two hexes to Ailinglaplap and try to provide the oomph to complete this invasion (and BB Nevada will lead another bombardment TF in). 7th Div/B aboard xAP/xAK will move one hex and try to help seal the deal at Maloelap (it's ripe for the plucking and is nearly certain to fall). And 7th Div./C, also aboard xAP/xAK will move two hexes to hit Majuro, which is lightly held per the preliminary landing by a 'chutes battalion about four days back.

I'll feel a lot better if Ailing and Maloe don't drag out. When they fall, 7th Div. can board good transports for the Ponape invasion, if that should ever take place.

[Encircled]

Sillyness.

This is a game and as Dan says, he's been incredibly efficient and SAFE in these last operations. They were handled well and surprised the opponent to the point there was NO strong reaction until after the landings. That is about as good as it gets in this game.

It is hard to write one's losses, however small, in an AAR, and open to this kind of reaction. I hope readers can at least see a big picture and also realize there are different philosophies of playing the game. It all washes in the VPs anyway (these ships are plenty expensive already), and there is no press or public to express "outrage."

+ 1 - we've all lost ships remember!

[traskott]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Sillyness.

This is a game and as Dan says, he's been incredibly efficient and SAFE in these last operations. They were handled well and surprised the opponent to the point there was NO strong reaction until after the landings. That is about as good as it gets in this game.

It is hard to write one's losses, however small, in an AAR, and open to this kind of reaction. I hope readers can at least see a big picture and also realize there are different philosophies of playing the game. It all washes in the VPs anyway (these ships are plenty expensive already), and there is no press or public to express "outrage."

+ 1 - we've all lost a lot of ships pointlessly remember!

Fixed [:D]

[BBfanboy]

Canoerebel: The AKEs and AE disband at Jaluit. To my surprise, though, the base (level four with a USN base force that has Nav Support) will not reload main gun ammo on the BBs. I had no trouble reloading at Sabang (a level two port with AKE). The only difference is that Sabang had a tremendous amount of NavSupport. Too, none of my BBs, even if detached, can dock at this level four port. I'd feel better if the main guns were 100%.

Nav Support helps a base, but it does not help an AE/AKE with loading operations. If those AE/AKE were large enough to load BB gun ammo before, the issue is that they simply ran out of ops points to load the big ammo. BB gun ammo is the LAST demand filled in the queue, and they require the most ops points. If there are just slightly fewer ops points than needed to load a point of BB ammo, it doesn't get loaded until next cycle. If you look at the AE/AKE ops points they should be in the high 900s or at 1000 if they were still filling orders for small ammo.

If those are NOT the same size AEs/AKEs that you had at Sabang, the issue could be the size of the ship. IIRC the 14" US guns need an AE capacity of 4200 or more, and the 16"/50s of the Iowa class need the 5400 capacity AEs. The 16"/45s of the Marylands and N.C./SoDak classes need something in between - around 4800 I think.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, BB, that's very helpful information. I recall reading this and having casual familiarity with it long, long ago. But it had fled my memory by the time we restarted the game. It never even occurred to me when I planned this op and Operation Circus.

How big does a port have to be to rearm main BB guns? Here I'm thinking mainly of upcoming operations in the Aleutians, where Kodiak is a level six port and Dutch Harbor will be built to that level.

Here's a map showing the deployment of Allied pickets between Midway and not very far off the coast of Japan proper. They've been there for weeks without detection.

[HansBolter]

I'm pretty sure 7 w/o nav support is the minimum for 8" guns so much bigger ports w/o nav support are needed for BBs.

Basically I try not to rely on ports for rearming the big boys as so few on the board can fill that bill.

I always try to get AE/AKEs of appropriate size into the locales where I need to rearm the beasties.

I also try to have at least one tender per BB being rearmed if not more.

[Canoerebel]

Good ideas.

I checked my roster of ships on map and don't have any5,400-ton AKEs, or anything close. I have a bunch of AKEs, but they're mostly 4,200 tons (and a few less than that). I lost a few AKEs at Sabang, so I may have skewered myself (unknowingly and in blissful ignorance, though they did get alot of important use there).

If BBs can't re-arm their main guns in the Marshalls and Gilberts, as seems to be the case, it'll affect how the operation proceeds from this point.

1. I have one strong BB TF (North Carolina and Washington) escorting the carriers. I haven't used it in bombardments and probably won't (keeping it in reserve for possible surface combat).

2. I have two slow BBs embedded with carrier TFs that haven't been used yet. I'll pull these out to use in bombardment runs vs. Tarawa and replace them with slow BBs that have expended most of their big ammo but which are good on AA ammo.

I should be good for the Tarawa portion of the campaign. And if John's navy doesn't show up in the meantime, I can probably work it out to handle Roi Namur and possibly Kusaie. But my ships will need to retire to Pearl Harbor to replenish at some point.

[Canoerebel]

07/04/43

Operation Roller Coaster: The Allies take Ailinglaplap today but don't have the oomph to take Maloelap or Majuro. Troops at those two places will rest a few days before the next attack. It doesn't appear that John is bringing in reinforcements by air, probably because his hold on both places is so tenuous. So the Allies now have Jaluit, Ailinglaplap, Mili and Wotje.

The main Allied combat and amphibious TFs moved south to near Mili. Lots of enemy Jakes on patrol downed by CAP. Recon shows Makin Island empty (fast transports will bring in a Marine 'chutes battalion tonight). Weather prevents recon of Tarawa, a level 3 airfield. D-Day at Tarawa is probably three days away.

No sign of enemy carriers or combat ships. John's had plenty of time to send them here. Possibly he has them upgrading or has elected not to come to the defense of the Marshalls. I'm worried about a KB ambush, but the Allies have eight fleet carriers (counting Victorious), one CVL, and eight CVE. And LRCAP from Mili will be available for another turn.

Enemy TFs at Kusaie and Ponape.

Operation Circus: Half KB North moved east of Attu to contribute LRCAP to Amchitka. SigInt that a construction battalion is inbound here and an AA unit inbound to Attu. A CB/CA TF bombarded Adak Island to good effect, nearly shutting down the airfield and damaging a host of fighters. Subs claimed a few barges bringing in elements of a base force to Ulak and an engineer unit to Adak. Dutch is down to 50k (from 81k, shooting for 35k).

Battle of Sumatra: Enemy artillery bombardment at Sabang again chews up Japanese guns, but supply is down to 3.7k. No ship bombardments. Scattered bombing attacks are mostly ineffective (except, of course, in using up some supply). Either tomorrow or next turn, I'd expect John to unleash a big bombardment, all bombers, and either a shock attack (likely) or a deliberate attack, depending on how confident he is. The base will fall, I think. D Plus 8 Months is in six days. I doubt Sabang holds that long. The remnant Allied troops will then fight in the jungle a few more turns.

With regard to Japanese reinforcements in the Marshalls and Aleutians, this is an understandable move by John to shore up his defenses, though an argument might be made he's better off not reinforcing right under the nose of the Allies, who are growing much stronger now. It suits me to have reinforcements at these bases, because the Allies will focus here, close to their own bases, for the next several months. No deep penetrations are planned on the order of Circus and Roller Coaster. The plan is to find the enemy (ground, air, sea), engage, and destroy as much as possible. From that perspective, having enemy troops at Amchitka or Shemya or Kusaie puts enemy troops in the field of fire.

In the past five weeks, Japan has lost many undefended islands and the following defended outposts: Adak, Umnak, Cold Bay, Wotje, Ailinglaplap, Mili and Jaluit. Among the defenders were HQ units (NE Fleet at Cold Bay, if memory serves) a variety of mostly small ground units, and the CD guns. All told, Japan might have lost 20k to 30k units. And that's the mission for the rest of the summer.

[HansBolter]

I think only the pure AEs are 5400 ton capacity.

Relying on very foggy memory though.

[Canoerebel]

That's a good tip, Hans. Thanks. I do have an AE at Jaluit. When I get home, I'll check her out to see her size. And then I'll look for where there are other AEs. I think I lost one at Sabang. But there are others here and there, including one at Colombo and one or two on the West Coast and Aleutians.