OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

The most recent Univ. of Washington projection for Georgia (issued over the weekend). As the state eases countermeasures, this will serve as a base line for evaluating future projections and results.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Stunning news here:

Kentucky sees highest spike in coronavirus cases after protests against lockdown

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... ssion=true

I wonder if the Coronavirus is indifferent or if it actually has a sense of humor.

The Governor just announced he would follow the CDC guidelines and not reopen. The Hill is just trying to mock fly-over country. Stupid headline. The same thing is happening in California but you don't hear about it because it doesn't help the narrative. In California it is surfers and beachgoers. [:)] A guy on a paddleboard got chased by the harbor patrol boat and handcuffed and his board confiscated. They have to chase people off the beach. It's going to be 90 F this weekend and great weather. They will need to bring the Marines up from Pendleton to keep people off the beach.[:)]

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, the headline is misleading. It implies that the protestors spread the virus among themselves by mingling. If they did it would be too soon to tell.

[Cap Mandrake]

"high speed pursuit" [:D] Malibu

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/04 ... xit-water/

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

... while they thought nobody was looking, they arrested a bunch of pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong last weekend...

You overlooked something else done last weekend. China has just created 2 new administrative districts in the Paracel and Spratly islands.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/ ... a/12165646

This action has far longer term ramifications than the Hong Kong arrests for it represents outright de facto annexation. It moves the South China Sea conflict from one over internationally disputed islands to one over established sovereign Chinese land. At least that is the legal narrative China will present to any legal challenge made under the Law of the Sea rules.

Alfred

It has already lost concerning the Spratley Islands:

International Court Issues Unanimous Award in Philippines v. China Case on South China Sea
The Court’s award is in the Philippines’ favor on most questions.

https://thediplomat.com/2016/07/interna ... china-sea/

I am aware of that 2016 judgement. Whilst it is a solid legal victory to the Philippines it is silent on where sovereignty lies. Which is what the weekend's development is all about, establishing under customary international law, actual Chinese sovereignty.

Alfred

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"high speed pursuit" [:D] Malibu

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/04 ... xit-water/

"Kim Prather, a leading atmospheric chemist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said the beaches are so dangerous right now that she wouldn’t even go in the water for $1 million.

“The ocean churns up all kinds of particulate and microscopic pathogens, and every time the ocean sneezes with a big wave or two, it sprays these particles into the air,” Prather said in a statement."

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

... while they thought nobody was looking, they arrested a bunch of pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong last weekend...

You overlooked something else done last weekend. China has just created 2 new administrative districts in the Paracel and Spratly islands.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/ ... a/12165646

This action has far longer term ramifications than the Hong Kong arrests for it represents outright de facto annexation. It moves the South China Sea conflict from one over internationally disputed islands to one over established sovereign Chinese land. At least that is the legal narrative China will present to any legal challenge made under the Law of the Sea rules.

Alfred

That's why the USN does drive bys.

Kim just had heart surgery. Putin is a tin pot dictator. Xi is the real menace.

Actually, the "drive bys" or to give it is more correct title, Freedom of Navigation exercises, are only a half hearted exercise with limited legal value. That is because , whilst they approach, they do not cross the 12 nm territorial water boundary. IOW they operate purely in international waters. One doesn't need permission to traverse international waters. Just because China claims that permission from it is required to sail through these waters does not mean it is so in law. Nor would the legal situation be different were they to be operating in Chinese economic zone waters, which by the way UNCLOS specifically excludes a zone arising from low tide rocks, notwithstanding why China says.

If one really wants to make the point, one would sail within the 12 nm limit. That is a clear statement that Chinese sovereignty is not recognised. Of course that would result in a physical confrontation.

Alfred

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus: Nine in 10 dying have existing illness
16 April 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52308783


"More than nine in 10 people dying with coronavirus have an underlying health condition, figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

The ONS looked at nearly 4,000 deaths during March in England and Wales where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.

In 91% of cases the individuals had other health problems.

The most common was heart disease, followed by dementia and respiratory illness.

On average, people dying also had roughly three other health conditions."

[MakeeLearn]

The Medical Argument Against ‘Stay-At-Home’ Orders
April 14, 2020


https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/04/14/the ... me-orders/

"Knut M. Wittkowski, He is an epidemiologist. The chief executive officer of Asdera LLC – a company which researches treatments for complex diseases – Wittkowski spent 20 years leading the department of biostatistics, epidemiology and research design at The Rockefeller University in New York City.

"“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve,” Wittkowski said. “I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong … widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.”"

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The Medical Argument Against ‘Stay-At-Home’ Orders
April 14, 2020


https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/04/14/the ... me-orders/

"Knut M. Wittkowski, He is an epidemiologist. The chief executive officer of Asdera LLC – a company which researches treatments for complex diseases – Wittkowski spent 20 years leading the department of biostatistics, epidemiology and research design at The Rockefeller University in New York City.

"“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve,” Wittkowski said. “I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong … widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.”"

A good point. I think we need to keep in mind *why* we all Americans (young, old, sick, vulnerable, healthy, resistant) were under extreme and uniform quarantine orders-to 'flatten the curve'. Not indefinitely-nobody was proposing that-but to keep enough ICU beds available for the sickest people for the initial viral surge. I think we've done that pretty well.

Now we need to avoid 'mission creep'. Flatten the curve? Reduce a rush on ICUs and ventilators? It's been done. There are demonstrable arguments against keeping everything uniformly closed down until the virus decides to go to zero.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The Medical Argument Against ‘Stay-At-Home’ Orders
April 14, 2020

https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/04/14/the ... me-orders/

"Knut M. Wittkowski, He is an epidemiologist. The chief executive officer of Asdera LLC – a company which researches treatments for complex diseases – Wittkowski spent 20 years leading the department of biostatistics, epidemiology and research design at The Rockefeller University in New York City.

"“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve,” Wittkowski said. “I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong … widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.”"

A good point. I think we need to keep in mind *why* we all Americans (young, old, sick, vulnerable, healthy, resistant) were under extreme and uniform quarantine orders-to 'flatten the curve'. Not indefinitely-nobody was proposing that-but to keep enough ICU beds available for the sickest people for the initial viral surge. I think we've done that pretty well.

Now we need to avoid 'mission creep'. Flatten the curve? Reduce a rush on ICUs and ventilators? It's been done. There are demonstrable arguments against keeping everything uniformly closed down until the virus decides to go to zero.

Not only that, now some treatments are known and some things not to do are known.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The Medical Argument Against ‘Stay-At-Home’ Orders
April 14, 2020


https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/04/14/the ... me-orders/

"Knut M. Wittkowski, He is an epidemiologist. The chief executive officer of Asdera LLC – a company which researches treatments for complex diseases – Wittkowski spent 20 years leading the department of biostatistics, epidemiology and research design at The Rockefeller University in New York City.

"“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve,” Wittkowski said. “I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong … widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.”"

A good point. I think we need to keep in mind *why* we all Americans (young, old, sick, vulnerable, healthy, resistant) were under extreme and uniform quarantine orders-to 'flatten the curve'. Not indefinitely-nobody was proposing that-but to keep enough ICU beds available for the sickest people for the initial viral surge. I think we've done that pretty well.

Now we need to avoid 'mission creep'. Flatten the curve? Reduce a rush on ICUs and ventilators? It's been done. There are demonstrable arguments against keeping everything uniformly closed down until the virus decides to go to zero.

The "mission creep"argument is a good point. Are we really going to shut down the economy until a vaccine is available and we have 7 billion doses?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The Medical Argument Against ‘Stay-At-Home’ Orders
April 14, 2020


https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/04/14/the ... me-orders/

"Knut M. Wittkowski, He is an epidemiologist. The chief executive officer of Asdera LLC – a company which researches treatments for complex diseases – Wittkowski spent 20 years leading the department of biostatistics, epidemiology and research design at The Rockefeller University in New York City.

"“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve,” Wittkowski said. “I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong … widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.”"

A good point. I think we need to keep in mind *why* we all Americans (young, old, sick, vulnerable, healthy, resistant) were under extreme and uniform quarantine orders-to 'flatten the curve'. Not indefinitely-nobody was proposing that-but to keep enough ICU beds available for the sickest people for the initial viral surge. I think we've done that pretty well.

Now we need to avoid 'mission creep'. Flatten the curve? Reduce a rush on ICUs and ventilators? It's been done. There are demonstrable arguments against keeping everything uniformly closed down until the virus decides to go to zero.

The "mission creep"argument is a good point. Are we really going to shut down the economy until a vaccine is available and we have 7 billion doses?

If we do we will have to appeal to the Martians to buy the vaccine doses for us.

[Canoerebel]

Sure enough, Univ. Washington revised its projections this evening. Here's the new chart for Georgia, with about 600 more mortalities. This revisions may or may not have taken into consideration the pending easing of countermeasures.

As a whole, USA nudged upward in mortalities but remains pretty stable. I think NY stayed about the same. Florida up a bit, but not much. California remains low.

UK dropped a bit, I believe.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Alfred




You overlooked something else done last weekend. China has just created 2 new administrative districts in the Paracel and Spratly islands.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/ ... a/12165646

This action has far longer term ramifications than the Hong Kong arrests for it represents outright de facto annexation. It moves the South China Sea conflict from one over internationally disputed islands to one over established sovereign Chinese land. At least that is the legal narrative China will present to any legal challenge made under the Law of the Sea rules.

Alfred

That's why the USN does drive bys.

Kim just had heart surgery. Putin is a tin pot dictator. Xi is the real menace.

Actually, the "drive bys" or to give it is more correct title, Freedom of Navigation exercises, are only a half hearted exercise with limited legal value. That is because , whilst they approach, they do not cross the 12 nm territorial water boundary. IOW they operate purely in international waters. One doesn't need permission to traverse international waters. Just because China claims that permission from it is required to sail through these waters does not mean it is so in law. Nor would the legal situation be different were they to be operating in Chinese economic zone waters, which by the way UNCLOS specifically excludes a zone arising from low tide rocks, notwithstanding why China says.

If one really wants to make the point, one would sail within the 12 nm limit. That is a clear statement that Chinese sovereignty is not recognised. Of course that would result in a physical confrontation.

Alfred

Here are two stories showing USN vessels sailing WITHIN 12 nautical miles of Spratly Islands occupied by China:

US Navy ship sails near disputed shoal claimed by China

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-navy-sails-past-disputed-artificial-islands-claimed/story?id=60993256

These kinds of missions should be stepped up.

Cheers,
CB

[CaptBeefheart]

By the way, the news cycle shifted a bit yesterday in Korea after CNN reported Li'l Kim was in "grave" condition. Every two-bit North Korea "expert" with a Twitter account saw fit to opine. To anyone who asked me about it, my response was: "It's CNN. Is that the most trustworthy name in news?"

Today I wake up and find crickets chirping on that CNN "scoop."

You gents are probably sick of my S. Korean updates. Anyway, the news is still very good here. I'll chime in if something goes awry.

Cheers,
CB

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

By the way, the news cycle shifted a bit yesterday in Korea after CNN reported Li'l Kim was in "grave" condition. Every two-bit North Korea "expert" with a Twitter account saw fit to opine. To anyone who asked me about it, my response was: "It's CNN. Is that the most trustworthy name in news?"

Today I wake up and find crickets chirping on that CNN "scoop."

You gents are probably sick of my S. Korean updates. Anyway, the news is still very good here. I'll chime in if something goes awry.

Cheers,
CB

No! I really really appreciate your updates from 'the front', CaptBeefheart. Please continue to contribute, I value your input. [8D]

[CaptBeefheart]

OK, Poultry Lad (if I may call you that). Here's today's Yonhap News story: S. Korea reports 11 more cases of new coronavirus, total now at 10,694

Not much new to report, really. There may be a slowdown in patients based on fear (not government regulations), but hospitals are operating as usual, meaning elective surgeries are being done and I haven't heard of anyone in the medical profession getting laid off like I see in the States. To me, medical layoffs is a clear sign of government overreaction. Just because something is "elective" doesn't mean it's not time sensitive or a quality of life issue. If certain talking head doctors and Hollywood celebrities had their way, the U.S. would be in a lockdown until a vaccine came out. Great way to create "Mad Max" in real life.

Cheers,
CB

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

By the way, the news cycle shifted a bit yesterday in Korea after CNN reported Li'l Kim was in "grave" condition. Every two-bit North Korea "expert" with a Twitter account saw fit to opine. To anyone who asked me about it, my response was: "It's CNN. Is that the most trustworthy name in news?"

Today I wake up and find crickets chirping on that CNN "scoop."

You gents are probably sick of my S. Korean updates. Anyway, the news is still very good here. I'll chime in if something goes awry.

Cheers,
CB

No! I really really appreciate your updates from 'the front', CaptBeefheart. Please continue to contribute, I value your input. [8D]

I agree, same here.

Joe

[Canoerebel]

+ 1 It's great to get firsthand reports from a country that's on the good side of the bell curve. Keep reporting from Korea, Captain Beefheart.