The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[witpqs]

Tech note: to retreat a unit must be able to trace a retreat path to a friendly base. I'm not sure of the maximum length of a retreat path, but you cannot retreat into, nor trace a path through a hex containing enemy LCU. That includes the friendly base that is the ultimate (theoretical) destination of the retreat path.

So, with Sabang being the only friendly base on the island and there being enemy troops there, the Allied units to the west are stuck in place until they surrender or are destroyed.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies have one hex to themselves - a jungle hex in between Sabang and the other contested hex on the west road. As far as I know, the Sabang troops can retred into that uncontested hex and so can the troops in the contested hex on the west road.

I certainly think I've seen that kind of thing happen a zillion times, especially in China and Burma.

Or have I missed something?

Bottom line, though is that the tattered units holding the west road stopped two IJA divisions from joining the assault at Sabang for weeks, contributing longevity to the campaing. And since longevity kept the IJN BBs on station for those extra weeks, their efforts did mean something.

[Canoerebel]

7/7/43

Operation Roller Coaster: Very tough fighting at Tarawa. D-Day begins with an SSX putting a torp into CA Indianapolis, which takes 41 FLT damage (she'll retire with two DDs as escorts, and that TF will follow a small ASW TF in hopes it might clear a path to the east so that the ship can make it to Pearl).

The BB TF (including Indianapolis) hits Tarawa and finds no shore guns and does only slight mischief to the defenses. The assault troops come ashore in good shape - the entire Aussie Div. supported by 18th Combat Engineers land in one day. The Assies are prepped over 60% but suffer very high disablements (that's not ideal prep, but it's much higher than many of the other landings in this Op that took contested hexes on D-Day). And yet, it's very odd. The Aussie unit shows 0 disprution and moderate fatigue (and those high disablements). The unit has 157 AV (after the following attack) and shock attacks at a very low adjusted value, the attack coming off at 1:4 and not touching the four forts. There are two IJN naval guard units reinforced by some parachute assault squads airlifted in from Tabituea (I know this, because SigInt just reported the para unit at that base). The Japanese defenders suffer higher losses in the attack (except the Allies did lose a good number of combat engineer squads). All told it's a very odd combination of results.

With 157 AV and no disruption and medium fatigue, the Aussie's might be able to take the base tomorrow. But I don't want to take any chances, so I'm inclined to land 40th USA Div., which is prepping for Ponape and loaded aboard APA and AK. This will badly disrupt this unit, but I think the extra oomph would still add considerable firepower. This is something I'll chew over for a few hours.

Ponape is a highly unlikely target in the short term since John's had time now to reinforce there and at Kusaie and possibly at Roi Namur. I might still take on Roi Namur if John doesn't reinforce in the meantime since the American RCT has unloaded at Mili, is resting, and is ready to load aboard assault ships. Or following Tarawa I may retire to Pearl. That remains to be seen.

No enemy air attacks from Tabituea. In fact, John seems to have pulled out some of his aircraft.

Operation Circus: Netties from the western Aleuts target the unCapped port at Adak Island, sinking three or four barges at a cost of a dozen or more Netties. 5th Indian Div. arrives at Prince Rupert and is 35% prepped for Amchitka. By the time any loading would take place, prep would be at least in the 70s. Two American divisions are prepping for Attu - one at Prince Rupert and one at the dot hex inland (to not overstack PR). So the Allies should be in good position to proceed with Operation Carnival once Roller Coaster winds down, if that's the course of action that seems best under the circumstances that I'll measure in making the decision in a couple of weeks.

Battle of Sumatra: Seven IJN BBs bombard Sabang, divided between two TFs. A deliberate attack follows, coming off at 2:1 and dropping forts to 1. Two Allied units are destroyed. Both sides have a modest number of squads destroyed, but 400+ Japanese combat squads are disabled. Supply is down to 500 (THE END IS NIGH!), but the units are still fully supplied (including AA units), so John may not notice for a day or two that AA is no longer firing. In any event, the next attack will do it. He might need to wait two or three days (or he may be emboldened enough to try a shock attack tomorrow). It's three days to D Plus 8 Months. John's had uncontested control of the air and sea since February 18 - nearly five months to bombard and bomb without opposition. That's a long, long time for a besieged garrison to hold. I couldn't have asked more.

They could have asked more from me, of course. But I'm satisfied that the decision to not try to reinforce Sabang was the right one. I would've had to try several months ago or more (I certainly couldn't have planned on Sabang holding into summer against such overwhelming odds). Using Death Star as it was in April or May would have been a death sentence against Steroid KB and a half dozen big airfields surrounding Sabang. So losing Sabang is very hard. But benefiting from directly through Circus and Roller Coaster has helped salve the wounds. And if any readers doubt that I've benefitted directly, I can explain.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Allies have one hex to themselves - a jungle hex in between Sabang and the other contested hex on the west road. As far as I know, the Sabang troops can retred into that uncontested hex and so can the troops in the contested hex on the west road.

I certainly think I've seen that kind of thing happen a zillion times, especially in China and Burma.

Or have I missed something?

Bottom line, though is that the tattered units holding the west road stopped two IJA divisions from joining the assault at Sabang for weeks, contributing longevity to the campaing. And since longevity kept the IJN BBs on station for those extra weeks, their efforts did mean something.

Yes: the terminus of the retreat path which is traced must be a friendly base that does not have enemy LCU present.

[Canoerebel]

Are you saying that my troops in Sabang won't retreat to the adjacent Allied-only jungle hex?

On re-reading, I don't think that's what you're saying. I think you are saying that the American units in the third hex (jungle hex occupied by both sides) won't retreat now since there is no candidate Allied base to retreat towards. So they'll fight until they die in that hex.

But the Sabang men will retreat to the open hex to the west.

Right?

(If I'm still wrong, I need to have my head examined, 'cause my mind will be tortured trying to wrap around this thing.)

[Canoerebel]

Working through whether or not to commit 40th Division to Tarawa was an interesting exercise.

40th is prepping for Ponape, but I know that locale isn't on the table for weeks. So the division is available and, working in tandem with 6th Australian Div. already ashore, could overwhelm the defenses at Tarawa and bring the battle to a quick end.

I did just this successfully at Ailinglaplap a few days back, when 3rd Marines had bogged down. A RCT prepping for Kusaei came ashore and sealed the deal immediately.

But I've had the exact opposite result at Maleolap, where the reinforcing RCT (also prepping for Kusaie, had essentially no effect).

But in the interest of going at this hard and striving for a decisive outcome as soon as possible - before John can bring enough forces to bear to alter the dominance the Allies have had to date - I've ordered 40th Division to land. This unit is 100% aboard APA and AKA, so it might come ashore in decent shape.

Also, BBs Washington and North Carolina will bombard for the first time, bringing main gun ammo to bear at Tarawa for the first time. Tarawa is tough - an atoll of rough terrain with four forts.

But if this fails, it might mean some hair pulling trying to figure out another approach.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Are you saying that my troops in Sabang won't retreat to the adjacent Allied-only jungle hex?

On re-reading, I don't think that's what you're saying. I think you are saying that the American units in the third hex (jungle hex occupied by both sides) won't retreat now since there is no candidate Allied base to retreat towards. So they'll fight until they die in that hex.

But the Sabang men will retreat to the open hex to the west.

Right?

(If I'm still wrong, I need to have my head examined, 'cause my mind will be tortured trying to wrap around this thing.)

[:D]

Retreat is the same no matter if you are in a base or the countryside. The unit must be able to trace a retreat path to a friendly base. A retreat path can not be traced through hexes with enemy LCU present, including the destination base.

AFAIK Sabang is the only Allied base on Sumatra, right? There are enemy LCU present in Sabang, right? Then ain't no Allied unit on the whole island of Sumatra retreating nowhere no how on no account of nothin'.

Got it?

[Canoerebel]

witpqs, yer blowin' my mind.

And then I log into the Forums to see what's up...and see this screen. A JohnIII "Banzai!" is not what I had hoped to see.

[Canoerebel]

Email from John: "NOW we can play my ADO!" ["ADO" is shorthand for Allied Dastardly Opponent; I first called John a Dastardly Japanese Opponent a few weeks back].

I need to dig out a post I made a few weeks back that upon the fall of Sabang, the first thing John would say was, "Now I an get started" or words to that effect.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Termite2

You start with 2 AE 5400; Mauna Loa & Lassen, get the Shasta in 5/42.
Size 7 can rearm any allied ship, at least it says so in my manual
To rearm a 16"/50 at port 6; you need 188 Naval support Sq
port 5 - 204 naval support Sq
port 4 - 212 Naval support Sq

With the changes in the OOB the US gets a few base units that have just over 100 naval support. Important units. Especially later in the campaign when the Allies might not have a major port near the action.

[Canoerebel]

7/8/43

Battle of Sumatra: Sabang falls today on a 3:1 shock attack. 32 Allied units - American, British, Indian, Australian - surrender. Roughly 9,000 squads are destroyed along with 2,000 guns and 2,200 vehicles (the guns are mainly AA as I only had one or two arty units present). The Japanese losses are relatively heavy for a big victory - 180 squads destroyed and 500 disabled.

This brings to an end a campaign that began with a D-Day assault on November 10, 1942 (and that actually took place around July 2013). I began before that, with the Allies intending to invade the Aluetians in the summer of '42, diverting to Oz and Tasmania to invade New Guinea, and then diverting again to Sumatra in a move that caught John by surprise.

I've already conducted Sabang's funeral many times, most recently a week or two back. So I won't go into length details about what happened, what it means for the Allies, and what I think it means for John.

I'll say this: When John and I terminated the game in September 2013, I was convinced that the Allies couldn't prevail in Sumatra due to the imbalance in the fighter pools and production. When we resumed in December 2015 (January 3, 1943 in game time), John told me that fighter production and pools had been increased (he believed it, not realizing the changes couldn't be made retroactive to this game, which I didn't discover for awhile). So, when we resumed, I had hopes that I might figure out a way to make Sumatra last. By late January '43, however, I understood the reality and had to make the decision between fighting for Sumatra at all costs (and probably extreme cost) or shifting focus elsewhere. All of you know the decision I made. I'm satisfied it was the right one, but it's painful to suffer a landmark defeat of epic proportions. Watching unit after unit disappear was akin to the surrender of Bataan, only much more agonizing since it's '43 and the Allies are no longer at the mercy of Japan.

The total value of the units lost was somewhere between 2,500 and 3,000, I think. I don't know the value of what Japan lost, but at least two divisions were reporting 0 AV at the time of the attack (of course, that's just due to disablements, but I think there's enough of that to require some recovery time).

Where does John go from here? That's one of the fun parts. He's reconning India, Oz and China. Those are possibilities. How strong a tug does he feel to head to CenPac? I'll find out as soon as those seven BBs report for duty to new fronts.

I told you I wouldn't begrudge John his "Banzai!" for this effort. He put a lot of energy and thought in to "unraveling the onion" (as he called it back in February). He made me pay dearly for my unnaturally early invasion of Sumatra. And he paid a stiff price too - in terms of time and assets dedicated tot he campaign. A tip of the cap to him, though I won't tell him that as he doesn't need encouragement. He's on fire. That probably means he's feeling very bold and ambitious.

Operation Roller Coaster: It was a bloody and eventful day here. I think committing 40th Div. to Tarawa was the right call. The unit came ashore with minimal disablements after North Carolina and Washington bombarded the island to good effect. IJN subs are very active in the area. One put a torp into BB South Dakota (30 SYS damage) and another sank an already-damaged xAK. The Allies sank one sub, I think. The Allied attack at Tarawa came off at high odds and took the base. Two big TFs will immediately reload 40th Div. That might take one day or two. Then the Allies weight anchor and move out. The question is whether they remain in force in the Marshalls to move on Roi Namur or instead retire to Pearl in prep for the next op. Roi Namur has been reinforced and is overstacked. I only have one RCT prepped for this base, so it's probably better to retire to Pearl, evaluate what's where and where the opportunities are, and go from there.

It may be unseemly to take pleasure in the successes of Roller Coaster on the day that Sabang falls, but this op really has been remarkable to date. The Allies have taken undefended Makin and defended Baker Island, Tarawa, Mili, Jaluit, Ailinglaplap, Wotje. Malaoelap and Majuro are still under siege but will probably fall in a week or less. This op was made possible only because seven IJN BBs were known to be in Sumatra and Half KB North was stationary in the Aleutians. I couldn't have chanced it otherwise.

Operation Circus: IJN CB/CA bombardment of Adak Island today does a lot of damage to the airfield and port. I'm giving free reign to John up here right now due to the focus on the Marshalls. But behind Adak a lot is going on. Dutch Harbor is down to 48k troops. Transports continue to shift units around as desired to maximize placement for future operations and to prevent overstacking.

[traskott]

Remember: Show must go on [;)]

[JohnDillworth]

I must say Dan you are bleeding capital ships and your opponents never seem to leave port. If your strategy is to start bleeding John of his capital ships the results are disappointing so far. Not a critique, just an observation. I've enjoyed watching you play for years and you seem off your footing in this game.

[ny59giants]

While Dan has a health respect for KB, it's those damn subs nipping at his heels that are truly frustrating. In my last game as Japan, I was convinced to stop building subs. I think that was a mistake just because they cause some much disruption to the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

John Dillworth's post is kind of puzzling. John III's ships have been at sea nearly the entire game. He's ridden them so hard that I think he had to put Half KB into port for upgrades, allowing Roller Coaster to proceed largely unmolested.

In the past six weeks of game time, the Allies have completed (or nearly so) two large invasions. They've taken (or are on the brink of) eleven defended enemy islands and about that many more undefended ones. These two operations have been on the main line of John's defenses (witness how hard he's reacted in the Aleuts; and we're seeing the same kind of reaction in CenPac now. The Allies have establishes massive bases in both areas, have created multiple vectors of attack, have outflanked John SoPac and SWPac defenses, and are in position to move on more vital sectors.

All this at a cost (thus far) of one CA, one APA, one TK and some other ships (not counting damaged ships).

I think anybody that's played PBEM knows how hard it is to engage in the big opening offensives of the war - the '43 invasions when the Allies are finally strong enough to move forward - and to do so successfully and at low cost. I couldn't be more pleased with how Circus and Roller Coaster have gone.

Taking Adak, Umnak, Dutch Harbor, Tarawa, Mili, Ailinglaplap, Jaluit and Wotje for basically pennies? It doesn't get much better than that. So how can I seem off my game? Heavens, the Allies have performed well all game; Johns been on his heels, the whole game, and most importantly of all, the Japanese navy has been well attritioned. I'm very pleased with where things stand in July 1943.

John's going to counter and go on the offensive. Things will be bloody for awhile. But at the moment I type this (and subject to change with the luck of war), the Death Star is entire (I've lost one CVE in the game). And I'm not looking at a long slog to recapture Oz or to claw my way through the New Hebrides or back from the edge of the map. I'm ready to move on the western Aleuts or Marcus or Kusaie and Ponape or Rabaul. What's there not to like?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

While Dan has a health respect for KB, it's those damn subs nipping at his heels that are truly frustrating. In my last game as Japan, I was convinced to stop building subs. I think that was a mistake just because they cause some much disruption to the Allies.

+1.

[crsutton]

Two requests, would you post as best as you know your major ship losses to date vs John's? Warships down to DDs. (as I think Japanese DD losses are the key to sinking big ships later)

And of all the units lost in Sumatra, do you have a plan installed for rebuilding the lost units. Which units take priority and which will probably not get rebuilt soon or at all?

[Bearcat2]

Good Grief, am impressed with your effort in this game, especially since this scenario gives the Japanese so much more. India, Australia, Pearl; none have been taken by the Japanese, based on who you are playing, am surprised.

[catwhoorg]

You have done better in the Marshall's in one fell swoop than I normally manage versus the AI.

I creep rather than blitz, and that maybe the difference.

[Canoerebel]

7/9/43

I'll do the research in reply to crsutton's question sometime today. I've given much of the information about the Japanese navy remaining OOB in recent weeks, but I'll do the info for both sides.

Operation Roller Coaster: Japanese subs are doing nasty work in the Marshalls. Today one put a fish it BB Resolution (20 FLT damage). Others sank a couple of empty xAKs.

The Allied transport TFs did a great job of loading all of 41st Div. in a single day. The ships weighed anchor and ended up one hex from the carriers, which were SE of Tarawa a hex or two. Despite the proximity, bleed-over CAP wasn't sufficient to ward off an incoming enemy strike from Tabituea. Judys sank an LSI(L) and damaged a few others ships (including two APA). John lost 30 Zeroes and Judys. 41st Div. transports will move NE and probably head for Pearl Harbor.

Allied carrier will move NNE to a point near Makin Island. I'm weighing between remaining in or near theater or retiring. The Allies have the two remaining amphibious ops to close the deal on (Majuro and Maloelap). I'll keep sufficient combat ships in theater to provide protection. John has loaded up Kwaj and Roi Namur with aircraft. I think Allied CAP at Mili is sufficient to protect the shipping there. The only other ships in the region are a few xAK and xAP unloading a base force at Ailinglaplap. There are two fighter squadrons there - not enough to ward off massed enemy attacks, but I want to get as much ashore as quickly as possible.

I have some ideas about what's coming next and how to handle John's air presence in his remaining Marshalls holdings.

Most of the bases taken now have engineers and base forces. Some bases need some building or expansion of fields before taking on LBA (bombers), but that's coming. John had Jaluit airfield - a 0(0) base - at 84% to level one. It's now at 97%. That's pretty quick work on a field that isn't supposed to be a field.

Many Allied amphibs are back at Pearl or nearing that port. But I still have a lot at Mili to handle the remaining ops and to then pull out what isn't staying.

Operation Roller Coaster: Lots of enemy activity as John reinforces his remaining bases. Dutch Harbor garrison down to 47k (from a high of 81k).

John is actively reconning bases in China (including Sian, Toyun, and the base closes to Burma). He's also reconning the Perth/Geraldton region. And he's taking hard looks at the Marshalls and the Aleutians. I don't know if he has offensive ideas in these areas (or others), but it wouldn't be a bad thing to see him use lots of resources in a counterattack if the region isn't vital or if he suffers disproportionate losses.

As mentioned before, the Allies do not plan any deep moves in the near future. With the arrival of the two new Essex class (in 5 and 7 days) and another CVL imminent, I prefer now to organize a massive invasion fleet intended for bases close to home airfields. Amchitka, Roi Namur and Kwajalein are each good possibilities.