Rematch 4 player game (Orm, Peskpesk, jjdenver and Mayhemizer)

[Mayhemizer_slith]

USSR north.

I need to stop here until JJ tells which unit take the loss and how he advances.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Final result of northern attack

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Attack in the south goes really well! Desert Fox has been defeated.

[peskpesk]

Another great avreage: 17,12,12,17. Axis demands new diceroller for the Allies for next game.

[Orm]

Changed die roller would not help. It is the 2d10 option that is the main issue in my humble opinion. The 2d10 does not take the results towards the average, it makes the results more extreme.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

For a moment I forgot all the bad rolls I have been complaining a lot

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Rebase
FF FTR2 few hexes west in Southern France
US 2x FTR from Algeria to east Algeria and Tunisia
USSR FTR2 from Smolensk to southern front


Air reorg
CW ATR3 fly to reorg ART in France.

Will Axis intercept? Allies have plenty of planes to intercept.

[peskpesk]

No thx.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

For those who don't want to read all: my conclusion is that we got lucky.

I wanted to see how lucky we got in this impulse land combats. I think it's important to check what were odds to stay organized, not to lose unit and take hex. Rolling 20 in attack that is 99% sure is not lucky, unlike attacking in low odds. I calculated everything manually (to make things easier for me I rounded odds to closest even number), anyone is free to correct me.

Normandy +13B
Odds to take hex 99%
Odds not to lose unit 94%
Odds not to flip units 79%
Kill 2 units from enemy 64%
Result no flipped units, enemy lost 2 units. 64% change for that.

Africa +12B
Odds to take hex 97%
Odds not to lose unit 90%
Odds not to flip units 72%
Kill 2 units from enemy 55%
Result no flipped units, enemy lost 2 units. 55% change for that. In this attack result 21 would have been enough for me (no flipped units, no losses to enemy. I would have converted attack to retreat and made them retreat south where they would have been OOS forever hopefully without possibility to build again, 72% chance for that)

USSR north +7B
Odds to take hex 72%
Odds not to lose unit 63%
Odds not to flip units 28%
Kill 2 units from enemy 15%
Result half flipped, no killed enemies, one own unit lost

USSR south +9B
Odds to take hex 85%
Odds not to lose unit 73%
Odds not to flip units 45%
Kill 2 units from enemy 28%
Result no flipped units, enemy lost 2 units. 28% change for that.

If we look what rolling 11 would have caused, in Normandy and Africa result would have been the same. In USSR north all units would have been flipped and enemy would have been only retreated and in USSR south no enemy units would have been killed and half of attacking units would have been disorganized.

I would say attacks in Normandy and Africa went as they they should go in average but most importantly we did not get unlucky there. Making 10 attacks like would cause some of them lose units and disorganize units. I would say we got little lucky in USSR north and we got lucky in USSR south (most importantly by killing HQA). And in total we got lucky by not rolling bad in any of the attacks and rolling good in one of the weak attacks killing very valuable unit and staying in position to being able to continue attacks in all fronts.

Luck is my super power. I have told at least twice to JJ that we will do this or that with little weak odds and count on luck

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Odds that both Normandy and Africa attack goes well (Normandy result 23, Africa 21) was 46%. So there was more than a good chance to flip or lose some units.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

After some intense planning USSR reorgs as many units in Ukraine as possible

Over to the Axis

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Western Europe and Africa at the start of J/A Axis impulse 6

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Eastern front and Greece

[Orm]

Jul/Aug '44
Impulse #6 (Axis)

Germany use one offensive to reorganize all their HQs.

Land: Germany, Italy
Combined: Japan
Naval:

No Port Strikes. No Naval Air.

Naval movement:
Japan:
CA + 8 CP (Fukuoka) -> China Sea 0-box - embark MAR Div (NW Port Arthur)

No strategic bombing.

Ground Strike:
Italy:
LND2 (Paris) -> OOS US MECH in Normandy
Germany:
LND2 (Vichy) -> OOS CW ARM in Normandy

CW has a ridiculous amount of fighters they can intercept with. Germany has two FTR2 available as counter-interceptors.

Will CW intercept any of the bombers?

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[Mayhemizer_slith]

CVP Fulmar intercept western hex
Spitfire IX from Normandy hex 54,26 intercept eastern hex

Both target bomber and abort after there is no bomber left.

Spitfire land to St-Malo 54,25 (west of starting hex)

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I noticed there is one Italian plane too but I stay with my plan.

[Orm]

I noticed there is one Italian plane too but I stay with my plan.

You are right. I was sure that the Italian flag stayed darkened when I checked for available Axis fighters within range. I am embarrassed by that, and I am truly sorry.

Although, I am sure, I would have noticed, and asked, when I did the actual interception. Now you saved us some time as well. Thank you.

[Orm]

Germany and Italy send up one fighter each so that Axis begin at +1 in both air combats.

Edit: We begin with the western air combat with the Italian bomber.

[Orm]

Jul/Aug '44
Impulse #6 (Axis)

The Axis bomber was cleared in the first air combat. The dream continues for at least a few more minutes.

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[Orm]

Jul/Aug '44
Impulse #6 (Axis)

Axis wins the second air combat as well.

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