Empire of the Rising Lemon? SqzMyLemon (Japan) v Smeulders (Allies)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

What is the ONE simple, clear thing you want to accomplish over the next six to twelve months?

I want to transition the Allies from an offensive stance to that of a defensive one by means of an offensive thrust of my own that will yield the capture or neutralization of a strategically important Allied LOC allowing me to interdict Allied movements in the Pacific until mid/late 1943.

[SqzMyLemon]

Trying to simply blunt the advance of the enemy doesn't alter the course of the war, I'm simply reacting to what my opponent already has put in motion. I'm not so concerned about whether the Allied Fleet responds or not now. Chickenboy's comment implying that if my opponent is determined to avoid a naval clash on anything but his terms, that nothing I do can force that to change, really struck a cord. Perhaps I am looking at this from the wrong perspective, instead of trying to figure out what could hurt my opponent, I should be concentrating on what actually benefits me, regardless of how my opponent may react. I need to put him in a position that whatever choice he makes will cost him. If he doesn't fight, he loses something strategic. If he does, he has to put his military assets at risk of loss. Either option brings about direct benefits to me.

Any Aleutian, New Guinea, SoPAC, Australian or Indian operation merely offers a delay, it doesn't fundamentally change the dynamics of the game. I need to pick a target that can change the course of the war for the next year. Something that allows me numerous opportunities to interdict Allied movements and force a route of advance onto my opponent that I can than disrupt and oppose with greater effect, since I've helped shape the direction it has to go.

It seems everything comes back to the Hawaiian Islands offering me the greatest risk/reward for dictating events for the next 6-9 months. Hawaii may be an extremely tough nut to crack at this time, but if cracked it opens huge potential. If I plan accordingly and the Allies do not respond with an adequate defence, Hawaii can be first neutralized, and then possibly captured, the ideal end result. If I plan accordingly and the Allies do respond by commiting their fleet, I force them to fight on a battlefield of my choice. It may not hold many initial tactical advantages for me, operating under Allied LBA, operating with little to no supporting bases during the initial phase, operating at the extreme limits of my logistical support...but it does force the Allies to fight on my terms though, away from the vital areas of the Empire, thousands of miles from my fuel and oil sources allowing me time to further strengthen my overall defence.

I think the idea of a gradual drive towards Hawaii, upping the threat level at each stage that will require the enemy to respond or risk losing the use of an extremly important asset is the right way to go. Reacting to what my opponent already has prepared for plays right into his hands. I need to have him reorientate his focus from the offensive to that of needing to defend his own vital interests. The best case scenario would be a half hearted defence of Hawaii caused by the fear of losing his precious military assets in it's defence while continuing a meaningless but safe offensive into New Guinea and the Solomons at little risk of loss. A succesful lodgement of the Allies in New Guinea of the Solomon's at this time does not threaten my vital sources of fuel or oil in any way. If anything, I should be encouraging him to focus on this theatre, all the while making it as painful as possible on him, while my main focus is to pursue a strategic goal that improves my entire position in the game.

I think my McClellan comment should be put to the test. Lets see what his pain threshold is and just whether or not he's willing to indeed pay the Butcher's Bill to defend his own interests.

If I don't want to yield the initiative yet and resort to a purely defensive posture, then I think Hawaii should be the goal and I should plan accordingly. No other objective in my opinion yields me as much potential to disrupt my opponents game plan, while strengthening my own at the same time.

[crsutton]

Well, I agree with everyone here that you must maintain an offensive posture, so that he will not take the offensive so early himself. Pick realistic obectives that you can cover with LBA and your carriers. Your hope is that he will commit his carriers and you can defeat them. The optimum time to defeat the Allied carrier force is just about now, if you get into the mid 1943 that opportunity lessens. And if he won't commit his carriers then your operations should suceed. One thing, if the Allied player has not been hurt, then at this stage of the campaign an overly ambitious attempt-such as Pearl Harbor probably will end in disaster. What could have been done in mid 1942 is probably off the table now.

I am giving you the bent from the Allied side as I have never played Japan, but I think your goal is to apply pressure to force him to resist. If he does not resist then take what he gives. When he starts to resisit you also will have an idea of how his mind set is going. But don't wait for him. I don't think the Japanese need go over to a full defensive until late 1943 if you are running your production right.

If I were playing the Japanese the following would be my goals for late 43
1. Chunking in China. I am currently being schooled on how to do this and now know how it can be done, I now realize it is almost impossible to resist a determined all out attack in China.
2. Burma. Once you take out China then you can sandbag a little in Burma and start to pull back. The risk is an Allied end run to cut your supply line further south. The risk is not great if you are diligent. The major handicap for the Allied player in CBI is assault landing ships. Make sure your glens and long range recon are checking Allied ports in India for this type of ships. If you start to see a lot of them, then you know what he is thinking.
3. Northern Oz. The supply sitution really inhibits an overland attack from the Allied side. You can hold Darwin until mid to late 43 with a staged withdrawal before Allied air gets too strong. I would not build up airbases past Katherine.
4. The Solomons as far south as Noumea and Suva. He is going to take it back but the longer you keep them the better.
5. The Aleutians out to at least Cold Harbor. Once again he will advance back but the further out the better.
6 And don't forget the Central Pacific. Snatch what he will let you have. Even a small garrison will require some effort to oust and will hold off the enventual march back to Tokyo.

I now think the real key is China. Take Chungking and all industrial cities up north. (Yes, it can be done) and you will free up a lot of troops for deployment in your extensive perimiter, as the Chinese will never get their footing back.

[SqzMyLemon]

Nov. 6/42 Update:

Australia:

Depending on the weather, Darwin is swept and bombed daily and generally against no opposition. Today was different. A6M2 Zero's (45) based at Dili swept at 18k and were interdicted by LRCAP consisting of P40-E Warhawk's (20) and Kittyhawk IA's (4). Enemy CAP was staggered at 15k, 17k, 18k and 20k. The combat report indicates one Kittyhawk and six P-40E's downed for the loss of two Zero's.

The bombing raid followed, and was also intercepted by LRCAP. Ki-43-Ic Oscar's (32) escorting Ki-21-Sally's (44) engaged P40-E Warhawk's (3) and one Kittyhawk IA. One Warhawk and the lone Kittyhawk were downed for no loss. Darwin received 2 AB, 2 ABS, 51 Runway and 2 Port hits.

A clear vicitory for Japanese airpower today. Tracker indicated total Allied losses for the day at 14 Warhawk's and 4 Kittyhawk's, Japan lost 6 Zero's.

China:

The 17 day battle for Changsha is over, the base falls to Imperial forces today! Banzai!

Overall disruption was low and the 1st Raiding Rgt. was in place at Hankow for the drop on Changsha, so I decided to launch a shock attack by the 1st Army. The raw AV comparison was 2288 vs 937 in Japan's favour. After modification the adjusted AV was 2592 vs 751 giving Japan 3:1 odds! The forts were reduced to zero and all nine Chinese units were forced to surrender. Japanese losses consisted of 6(381) infantry, 7(30) non-combat and 0(27) engineer squads totalling 6397 casualties. The Chinese suffered 1425(0) infantry, 2198 non-combat, 115(0) engineer squads and 527(0) guns lost totalling 29185 casualties.

After five deliberate and one shock attacks, the Butcher's Bill for Japan to capture Changsha was 146 infantry, 95 non-combat and 7 engineer squads destroyed with casualties of 22562. The Chinese defenders suffered 1586 infantry, 2299 non-combat and 122 engineer squads destroyed and a further 534 guns destroyed for 35766 casualties. These totals do not include losses suffered from ground or air bombardments. If it wasn't for one extremely poor combat result inflicting 156 Japanese squads destroyed in one day, the overall toll to take Changsha would have been even lower. My squads will recover, China's will respawn, but Changsha is mine and I can move forward once again.

Miscellaneous:

Prome expands fortifications to size 3
Munda expands airfield to size 2
Christmas Island IO expands fortifications to size 1

A great day for the Empire!

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Well, I agree with everyone here that you must maintain an offensive posture, so that he will not take the offensive so early himself. Pick realistic obectives that you can cover with LBA and your carriers. Your hope is that he will commit his carriers and you can defeat them. The optimum time to defeat the Allied carrier force is just about now, if you get into the mid 1943 that opportunity lessens. And if he won't commit his carriers then your operations should suceed. One thing, if the Allied player has not been hurt, then at this stage of the campaign an overly ambitious attempt-such as Pearl Harbor probably will end in disaster. What could have been done in mid 1942 is probably off the table now.

I am giving you the bent from the Allied side as I have never played Japan, but I think your goal is to apply pressure to force him to resist. If he does not resist then take what he gives. When he starts to resisit you also will have an idea of how his mind set is going. But don't wait for him. I don't think the Japanese need go over to a full defensive until late 1943 if you are running your production right.

If I were playing the Japanese the following would be my goals for late 43
1. Chunking in China. I am currently being schooled on how to do this and now know how it can be done, I now realize it is almost impossible to resist a determined all out attack in China.
2. Burma. Once you take out China then you can sandbag a little in Burma and start to pull back. The risk is an Allied end run to cut your supply line further south. The risk is not great if you are diligent. The major handicap for the Allied player in CBI is assault landing ships. Make sure your glens and long range recon are checking Allied ports in India for this type of ships. If you start to see a lot of them, then you know what he is thinking.
3. Northern Oz. The supply sitution really inhibits an overland attack from the Allied side. You can hold Darwin until mid to late 43 with a staged withdrawal before Allied air gets too strong. I would not build up airbases past Katherine.
4. The Solomons as far south as Noumea and Suva. He is going to take it back but the longer you keep them the better.
5. The Aleutians out to at least Cold Harbor. Once again he will advance back but the further out the better.
6 And don't forget the Central Pacific. Snatch what he will let you have. Even a small garrison will require some effort to oust and will hold off the enventual march back to Tokyo.

I now think the real key is China. Take Chungking and all industrial cities up north. (Yes, it can be done) and you will free up a lot of troops for deployment in your extensive perimiter, as the Chinese will never get their footing back.

Hi crsutton,

Thanks once again for posting. Definitely food for thought.

Hawaii is definitely going to be a daunting task. I think if I'm smart about it, even if repulsed, I can cause problems here with a minimal of assets. I think the process of getting to Hawaii may actually accomplish your suggestions of capturing outlying bases that will serve to slow any Allied advance in the central Pacific in the future, whether Hawaii is neutralized or not.

I tend to now agree with Chickenboy and Nemo that heading toward Santa Cruz, New Caledonia and Fiji simply plays into the Allied hand of tying down large numbers of my troops and naval assets over a long period of time, allowing further advances by the Allies against easier opposition elsewhere. Northern Australia I have absolutely no interest in holding, even to delay. If the Allies make an effort to occupy and expand the region to provide a base of operations, I'll deal with it then.

China is definitely a priority to try and eliminate from the equation to get that huge pool of Japanese LCU's into a more important theatre.

Burma, I want no part of. I'll delay as long as I can and fall back as slowly as possible, but the more Allied attention here the better. If China can be defeated, I'll have more than enough LCU's to bolster this front.

I completely agree that I need to do something in the Aleutians, and I'll be looking at ways to incorporate that into my future plans.

Ultimately, I think dissipating my strength over numerous theatres to accomplish limited goals still only spells a slow and painful death for the Empire. If not Hawaii, then another objective that can achieve the same reorientation of my opponents operations to the defensive. Create a wound that if not dealt with will simply hemorrhage over time. I truly need to launch one Blitzkrieg, mass my available forces at the point of attack, overwhelm him and paralyze him long enough in order to give me the time to address many of the issues you point out. I don't see that happening anywhere else on the map. It's not enough to simply push him back, he needs to be somewhat dissected and as Nemo mentioned...gutted.

I've never played scenario two, but I think scenario one limits the Japanese to concentrate on only one or two areas of attack. There are just not enough LCU's available to fully cover even a small perimeter such as mine. let alone an enlarged one as you are suggesting. I need to limit the number of approaches my opponent can take in order to better defend those specific ones adequately. I need to limit his options.

The more discussion the better, I still have time to think of an easier objective that will accomplish the same goal, but I just don't see it yet.

[SqzMyLemon]

I think in the short term, it's safe to undertake two operations, the recapture of Baker Island and an amphibious invasion of Johnston Island. My Glen equipped submarines are not providing me with the intelligence I need to fully assess the strength of the Hawaiin Islands. I need information and in turn limit the ability of the enemy to gather their own. Baker Island will be taken to remove the threat of early discovery of the Johnston invasion and to provide me with early warning of any Allied naval movement from Luganville, Savu, or Pago Pago. I may attempt to recapture Ndeni for the same purpose, and also to create the illusion of wanting to contest Allied moves in the Solomons. These three operations may also draw out Allied naval assets, or one could hope.

I don't believe any of these moves will indicate a possible strike against the Hawaiian Islands, but merely an attempt on my part to better search for the wereabouts of the enemy fleet and blunt the recent Allied advances. I also need practice attacking Atolls. [;)]

I may prepare an invasion of Midway. That in itself could allow me to more effectively interdict Allied movements in the Aleutians come the Spring and that of Hawaii as well. Not until I see the reaction to the Johnston invasion though.

[SqzMyLemon]

If Hawaii is indeed too tough of a target at this stage of the war, can I achieve the same interdiction of an Allied LOC by a full invasion of the Aleutians? Another idea is to hit Western and Northeastern Australia? Capture North Australia to eliminate a threat to the SRA (not one I'd like to do)?

The Aleutians would simply be to capture the lot of them and end any Allied threat to Northern Japan.

The capture of Perth could allow me to interdict Allied transport TF's operating from CT to Australia. Northeastern Australia would be a spoiling attack, capture the heavily expanded airfields and push back any planned invasion of New Guinea until mid 43. This would be a complementary operation to the seizing of islands in the Central Pacifc, like Johnston, Midway, Baker, if indeed I think PH cannot be touched.

Is there any merit to these ideas, over an isolate PH one?

Just for a little insight into my way of thinking. It hasn't applied in this game, but in my next one it could. I mentioned I'm willing to take a risk and meet the enemy head-on, even if I don't hold the advantage. In the board game "Risk" one of my usual tactics was to strike an opponent where he was strong, not weak. My reasoning was if I can take out a large force, then the remainder of his holdings would be far too weak to counter, or hold out for long with the majority of his offensive power having been destroyed. I'd like to try and apply that here somehow.

I think that's why I'm trying to focus on hitting at the Allies strength, not some weak backwater that if lost doesn't make much difference. It's not enough to simply try and commit more strength to block and slow down his advances, I want to force a complete change of focus on my opponent.

Another option is throw everything at China, knock it out by early/mid 43 and flood the Pacific with the LCU's freed up. I like this one, but it doesn't do much in terms of dealing with the Pacific in the next 5-7 months.

[PaxMondo]

Remember, it takes two to have a fight.

You're trying to create a lure. Whether it works or not is up to your opponent. He has to show up. The probabilities of that can only be determined by you.

As Nemo has stated: what is your goal? My suggstion is to be sure that your lure, whatever it is, furthers this goal independent of whether or not it brings the allied fleet out. If it does not, then you have to really question why you spent that time and effort.

[Nemo121]

The ideal strategy is to craft a situation which is win/win for you and lose/lose for your opponent. Just because you win doesn't mean your opponent, necessarily loses.

So, is there anywhere you can attack which if the Allies respond you can craft a win and where, if they don't respond taking the terrain is still a win or sets the ground for a greater win down the road? Also, ideally, is either option a losing proposition for the Allies ( to at least some extent ).

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

If Hawaii is indeed too tough of a target at this stage of the war, can I achieve the same interdiction of an Allied LOC by a full invasion of the Aleutians? Another idea is to hit Western and Northeastern Australia? Capture North Australia to eliminate a threat to the SRA (not one I'd like to do)?

The Aleutians would simply be to capture the lot of them and end any Allied threat to Northern Japan.

The capture of Perth could allow me to interdict Allied transport TF's operating from CT to Australia. Northeastern Australia would be a spoiling attack, capture the heavily expanded airfields and push back any planned invasion of New Guinea until mid 43. This would be a complementary operation to the seizing of islands in the Central Pacifc, like Johnston, Midway, Baker, if indeed I think PH cannot be touched.

Is there any merit to these ideas, over an isolate PH one?

Just for a little insight into my way of thinking. It hasn't applied in this game, but in my next one it could. I mentioned I'm willing to take a risk and meet the enemy head-on, even if I don't hold the advantage. In the board game "Risk" one of my usual tactics was to strike an opponent where he was strong, not weak. My reasoning was if I can take out a large force, then the remainder of his holdings would be far too weak to counter, or hold out for long with the majority of his offensive power having been destroyed. I'd like to try and apply that here somehow.

I think that's why I'm trying to focus on hitting at the Allies strength, not some weak backwater that if lost doesn't make much difference. It's not enough to simply try and commit more strength to block and slow down his advances, I want to force a complete change of focus on my opponent.

Another option is throw everything at China, knock it out by early/mid 43 and flood the Pacific with the LCU's freed up. I like this one, but it doesn't do much in terms of dealing with the Pacific in the next 5-7 months.

Well, China is a land campaign requiring no fleet and little in the way of your air force. (couple of hundred bombers and fighters) The troops are already there and pulled form Manchuria, but it does depend on your sucesses elsewhere. If you take out China by 1/44 and the Allied player had knocked out your fleet and is sitting in Luzon, then there is little benefit. However, if you have established a strong perimeter and then take out China all of sudden you will have some serious surpluses of LCUs to distribute around your far won Empire.

And, yes the Aleutian chain is worth taking for the very reason you stated. The further away from Japan the Allied player starts his counter attack, the better.

If you keep to your time table Northern Oz is easily taken. I don't think I would advance any further. Perth and Townsville look so appealing but not unless you plan on takin all of Oz and that is a big bite to take. As the Allied player, I am looking for a good place to fight the Japanese where I don't have to risk my fleet too much. There is no better place than Oz. Plenty of rail lines and major roads, great open terrain for superior Allied mobile forces and a vast amount of territory where I can withdraw if things don't go my way. As the Allied player I am adverse to risking my carriers in 1942. However Perth is the perfect place for a carrier fight because the Japanese fleet is about as far from home as they can get. Heavily damaged Japanese ships tend to sink. A chance to hit them that far from port can't be missed.

[Nemo121]

How does taking the Aleutians impact on an Allied thrust from Hawaii via Midway and Marcus? Or even better yet, via Baker, Canton into the Marshalls? I, personally, don't see that it does. I may, of course, be missing something.

[SqzMyLemon]

Thanks for posting Pax and Nemo.

I'll decide my plans for the conduct of the war over the next 6-9 months during the weekend. I think it being my first game and realistically looking over my position, I will have to resort to a more traditional course of defending the Empire. Unless, I get an epiphany over the weekend.

As much as I really, really want to hit the Hawaiian Islands, it's not realistic at this stage of the game for me and I feel I'm almost forcing myself to attempt it, despite serious misgivings. I definitely think the idea is worthwhile, but I don't have the skill/experience yet of better players to pull it off. On top of that, logistically I'm completely unprepared for a deep thrust like this. The Marshall's and Gilbert's are not built up enough to provide an adequate base of operations.

I plan on seizing back the initiative through offensive means though. I won't rely on a defensive stance anymore, which to this point has severly limited my options. The idea of seeking a fleet engagement was the wrong perspective I believe. My opponent is not concerned with seeking battle on anything but his own terms, and I've wasted so much time in finally realizing the consequences of that. I will pursue a strategy that strengthens my own position whether the Allies respond or not.

I have five things I'll concentrate on immediately:

1. I'm going to try and knock China out of the war by mid/late 43.

2. I'm going to invade the Aleutians in the Spring to eliminate this axis of advance, securing my northern flank for all of 1943.

3. Decide how best to disrupt the Allied advance towards New Guinea and the Solomons at as little cost to myself.

4. Seize a few bases in the CenPAC to establish air search for warning of Allied moves in this theatre.

5. Create a strong reserve for a counter invasion of my choosing against one single major Allied operation.

So, it won't be a Blitzkrieg or decisive strike at Pearl Harbor. It will be something within my means to achieve. I appreciate all the comments and suggestions from everyone and I'm going to apply facets of them in everything I will attempt from here on out.

Nemo, I especially want to thank you for the time you've taken for going over my AAR and all you have suggested. I'm not taking a one-down position here, but I intend on applying aspects of your philosophy to the game from here on out and seek to improve my own strategic vision. I look at things the same way you do at times and want to think outside the box, I just think it's a little late for me to apply it to this particular match in a game shattering way, unless an opportunity presents itself at a later stage. I'm not giving up on what you have suggested, I'm just not there yet in my development. Your Nemesis AAR has shown me that as late as 1944 a bold Japanese strike can pay huge dividends. Your Okinawa operation shows me there will always be an opportunity to strike back despite what appears to be overwhelming odds against it. I'm going to be looking for a way to "gut" my opponent for the remainder of this game...I just have to be able to seize the moment when presented the opportunity.

No matter how the rest of this match will go, I'll be looking at WitP AE from a completely different perspective from now on thanks to all the comments I've received.

It's time to get back to cranking out turns and moving the war forward. I've almost talked myself into inaction. I need to start applying some pressure on the Allies and see if some cracks will form that I can exploit.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
How does taking the Aleutians impact on an Allied thrust from Hawaii via Midway and Marcus? Or even better yet, via Baker, Canton into the Marshalls? I, personally, don't see that it does. I may, of course, be missing something.

Nemo, I missed this before I posted. Do you think then that an Allied thrust from the Aleutians is less of a threat then the Marcus or Marshall route?

I agree with you about how weak I am in the Central Pacifc. I'm looking back when I posted about a gradual threatening of Hawaii via taking bases such as Canton, Johnston and Midway. Do you think those particular bases still have merit if I decided to not threaten Hawaii directly? In taking them, I at least force the Allies to commit naval assets in their recapture and push their start line back to Hawaii. It also has the benefit of being able to interdict/disrupt a direct LOC from Hawaii to the Gilbert's or Marshall's.

I want to stress again, I'm not giving up on an aggressive approach to better my position. I feel as you do that an Allied approach from the Central Pacific is worrisome. Can I still blunt it while avoiding assaulting Hawaii directly? I think there is still merit in looking at capturing more Central Pacific islands, beyond strictly for naval search purposes.

Would you recommend then a series of offensives to capture Baker, Canton, Johnston and Midway while strengthening the Marshall's over an Aleutian operation? You mentioned you thought that route would have potential and made sense after I suggested it. I definitely feel more comfortable with that route if indeed I didn't have to commit to a Hawaiian operation. Not to say if things changed that couldn't be a future objective. If the Allied Fleet did appear as I grab Central Pacific islands and it was defeated that opens up a lot of potential. I just can't factor it in because that relies solely on my opponent. Is it sufficient in your opinion to strictly strengthen the Kuriles against an Allied assault? I could better establish my position on Attu at the very least.

[Chickenboy]

SqzMyLemon,

I appreciate your inner monologue that you're sharing with us readers. I can't help but feel as though you may be strategically adrift still. Less than two weeks ago, you were bracing all your available forces for a knockout blow against the Allied fleet when they sortied to defend Pearl Harbor. Now your post #572 contains five major strategic objectives-none of which are related to your foremost strategic goal of two weeks ago.

Preparing for such diametrically opposing goals as a predominant mainland China thrust versus a Pearl Harbor / Hawaiian islands offensive will have you clutching at offensive straws. You do not have enough forces at your disposal to do all of these things and do them well at this point in the game.

Perhaps the easiest way to demonstrate this is to ask you to identify the units that you have in mind for each of these disparate offensives. You're going to knock China out of the game within the next 6 months? 180 days to victory, eh? Tall order-what are you going to use (Division numbers, where you get them from, do you have the PP needed, etc.) to accomplish this blitzkrieg. Clearly, if you haven't beaten the Chinese in China in the last 180 days, you're going to need a major influx into the theatre to accomplish this, right? I have a simple question-where are you going to get them from? Please be as specific as you can to be honest to yourself. Will this influx of troops be sufficient to crack through Chinese lines in increasingly poor terrain?

You're going to need significant defensive LCUs to accomplish your other SoPac defensive objectives. Where exactly were these going to come from? For your own sake, I'd recommend being as specific as possible (e.g., 14th Division will begin preparations for San Clemente island and moved there by amphibious TF within 30 days).

I believe that, unlike those playing under scenario 2 or with PDU on, you will find your options limited when you start looking at the details. You don't have very many unrestricted divisions to go around. How will you divide them and what are your priorities? Then things will shake out for you.

This may also help you to deliberate on your long-term strategic plans-by figuring which tactical actions you make may permit realization of your strategic developments. Your short term thinking will impact your long term thinking and vice-versa.

[SqzMyLemon]

I suck. [:D]

I admit, I'm completely adrift and am having one hell of a time trying to figure out the best course of action to take here. I'm guilty of overthinking myself into inaction, or as people are starting to suggest, poorly conceived master strokes. Something tells me I'm not far off from Hitler moving his non-existent armies around on his map taking any number of unrealistic objectives in his head.

I'm obviously not ready/unable to determine my immediate course of action, and perhaps am doing myself a disservice attempting to at this time. I'm also worried I'll create reader fatigue. I'm truly appreciative of all the comments, but feel I'm letting people down by obviously not getting it. I'm not taking a one-down position here, but just don't want to lose the goodwill of the community who offer suggestions that don't seem to lead to direct action on my part. Sigh, I believe I even said something to this effect 6 months ago. So maybe I need to wipe the slate clean and start fresh. I'll look at things this weekend, go over all the posts and see if I can set myself ONE immediate goal to pursue, be it only the capture of a single island.

I'm delaying turns in order to not lose time preparing for an operation I can't decide on [&:]. I think I need to concentrate on playing some turns, seeing how things develop and re-evaluate this in a few weeks, maybe give myself till the end of November in game time and try again then.

I'm getting frustrated at my inability to do something that on the surface should be rather straightforward.

[ny59giants]

Just played catch up with your AAR. Like Nemo said a long time ago, AE and WITP are always about logistics and economics. What can you do to solidify your access to oil, fuel, and resources into '44 (or further)?? What can you do to make his transport of excessive fuel and supply from the USA??

He will have to send them from the west coast or through Cape Town. Taking Hawaii may be nice, but you mentioned that you haven't built up the Central Pacific enough. If he is currently operating in the Solomons area, it is logical to conclude that he is sending logistical assets from USA to Tahati, Pago Pago, and/or Suva. Even if you don't invade any of the Hawaiian Islands, the capture of Midway (useful as Allies for forward basing subs and decrease turnaround time), Johnson Island, the Line Islands, Canton Island, and Penhran Islands would cause him to take huge detours with his shipping and allow you to raid his SLOC.

I'm not saying you have to take all those bases, but they are not close enough to other bases to have him use LBA to tip the balance in a CV vs CV battle. It should cause him to divert some assets to secure his SLOC. if not, you can base some Nells with an Air HQ to range into his shipping lanes. Some bases are not that important to you, but more important in denying the use of them to your opponent.

[Nemo121]

Clarity is needed. What is your ONE overarching goal?

If it is killing his fleet then you need to draw it out - which I would suggest can best be done at Hawaii. If it is something else then you need a different plan. I don't think you have a simple answer to the question, what's your primary objective?

SqzMyLemon,
The last thing you need is to rush through another few weeks of turns without deciding on anything. Stop play for a week and decide and once you've decided stick to it. Right now you are a man who can't decide how to save himself from drowning but has decided to continue flailing around doing the same things which haven't worked so far before he tries to figure out what would work. That doesn't make a whole heap of sense to me.

If you still can't decide then maybe you would be best to just decide to set up a strong defence and plan a defensive war. At least that way you won't have to use the initiative but can concentrate on reacting - which is easier although still a tough gig.

[SqzMyLemon]

Thanks everyone. I will do as suggested, take a break for a few days and figure things out. I have been meaning to do an update of my defensive preparations to date. That will give me a chance to address Chickenboy's suggestion for an inventory of troops available for offensive moves and help possibly determine my course of action. I'll go over all the comments and do some homework.

Have a great weekend everyone. I'm helping a friend move tonight, so maybe the beer and pizza will provide clarity! Who knows, maybe time to have a few too many and gain the wisdom of the inebriated.

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
It seems everything comes back to the Hawaiian Islands offering me the greatest risk/reward for dictating events for the next 6-9 months. Hawaii may be an extremely tough nut to crack at this time,

Invasion of Hawaii at any time past December of 1941 boils down to praying for the increasingly unlikely combination of Allied SigInt failure and your opponent making some serious mistakes, while enduring enormous logictical strain. Very big and systematic mistakes in this case. Even if both of these conditions come true, you are vastly unlikely to take Pearl. I know of only one actual game where a Japanese player, IIRC, managed to storm Hawaii successfully (it is on a German AE forum). He did it by a very early attack.

And frankly, even total capture of Hawaii isn't going to cut Allied communication with SWPac. The fuel cost of maintaining any sort of systematic raiding from Hawaii is enormous, and so convoys simply will be slipping south of your airsearch coverage. By late 1942 Allies have plenty of long-legged transports. And Australia can be supplied from Indian Ocean side.

[SqzMyLemon]

Still working on getting things figured out, but ran a turn. The Allies appear to be making a move towards Mandalay and led things off with a large air attack against the airbase. Until the extent of the threat in Burma can be determined there will be no troop withdrawals. On to the days events.

Nov. 7/42:

Sub Ops:

SS KXVI patrolling near Balabac is sighted by DD escorts from a resource TF and is attacked. The submarine takes one direct DC hit. The TF suffers no loss.

SS O20 attacks the E Kari with a 4 torpedo spread which fails to detonate. E Kari responds with one direct DC hit on the submarine.

Australia:

A night attack against Fenton is ineffective. Ki-21-IIa Sally's (24) fail to damage the airbase and suffer one bomber shot down.

Burma:

Allied planes appear in the skies over Mandalay in droves today. Small raids occurred in the morning phase causing slight damage to the airfield and it seems the Allied bombers proceeded the early sweeps in many cases. All sweeps consisted of P-40E's or P-40K's. There was no Japanese CAP assigned over Mandalay. The afternoon phase saw the largest bomber strike of Wellington Ic's (32), LB-30 Liberator's (7) and B-25C Mitchell's (31). The Allies got clear skies and the numerous raids caused extensive damage to the airbase. The airbase currently sits at 10 Runway and 51 Service damage. The airbase is only level two and not being utilized, however that will stop any future fort building.

China:

Just air attacks against a few airbases at Tuyun and Changteh. As always I'm looking to score supply hits. The 17th Chinese/B Corps was finally wiped out from air bombardment near Sining. The bombers will now focus on Sining itself.

Miscellaneous:

Fusan expands airfield to size 4
Hankow expands fortifications to size 6
Changsha expands fortifications to size 1
Merak expands fortifications to size 3
Makassar expands airfield to size 5
Sorong expands fortifications to size 2

251 Ku S-1 arrives at Kagoshima
8th Area Army arrives at Tokyo
18th Army arrives at Tokyo

A few screenshots follow to bring the most active theatres up to date and my thoughts on future operations there.