The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[ny59giants]

Sweet tea/iced tea vs hot tea - I've lived in NE Georgia, So Carolina, and now Tenn. On trips up I-81 to Vermont to visit family, you can tell what is still 'southern culture' IMO, by whether you get asked if you want your tea served hot or iced. The dividing line in my experience has been the classic Mason Dixon line. Down here, most people like their still hot Krispy Kreme glazed donuts. They do nothing for me. However, I will inhale a 1/2 dozen creme and/or jelly filled Dunkin' Donuts in no time flat.

[zuluhour]

I think your confusing the real south with the "deep south". [;)]

[AcePylut]

As a northern transplant to South Carolina, I was in a discussion about what I needed to purchase a shotgun. He kept saying there's no license necessary to buy a "home" gun. But what he was actually saying was, "There's no license necessary to buy a long gun". Long... Home.... sounds about the same. Seems legit

I say you guys, they say y'all. They ask a question I don't hear, and I say "what", and they say "excuse me".

[Canoerebel]

The strategic map shows the two areas of proximity and friction - the Marshalls and the Aleutians.

The current Allied plan is to engage in amphibious operations in the Marshalls in 15-20 days. If successful (meaning, if the Allies don't lose a lopsided carrier battle), I'll then flip my navy to the Aleutians for the invasion of Amchitka followed shortly thereafter by the move on Attu and adjacent islands.

Essentially all troops needed for these operations are available and prepping. One restricted division (for Attu, the furthest off) needs to be purchased, but the PP are building nicely.

This sequence has been the general Allied plan since early in '43. That doesn't mean I have to follow it, though I'm likely too. But as part of the due diligence protocol, I've looked at other options:

1. Do Nothing. The Allied navy will grow mighty strong in coming months. I could sit back, let John attack here or there (if he's so inclined), and await augmentation of the Death Star before moving. This is a viable option.

2. Flip the order of operations, hitting Amchitka first. I can do this, but I prefer moving in the Marshalls first because, given its circular arrangement, the Allied airfields offer more of a network of safety and power. I'd rather offer the first carrier battle here than in the more exposed and linear Aleutians.

3. Drop both plans and move deeper - the Solomons, Wake and Marcus, whatever. I prefer to have the first carrier battle closer to Allied bases. If and when the Allies have clear carrier superiority, these options become much more attractive.

4. Switch up and move someplace unexpected like NW Oz, New Guinea, Java, wherever. Available troops, prep time and PP make this a less attractive option.

At this point, the Allies want to seek battle close to friendly ports. The presence of sizeable concentrations of enemy troops that are "trapped" on islands is a drawing point. Hitting Kwaj, Roi-Namur, Amchitka and the like offer the best risk versus reward benefits.

The Moose one time offered an opinion that I really liked. He acknowledged the need for (or advantages of)surprise and deception early in the game. But he felt like there comes a time when using time and assets to create deception may actually be counterproductive. That it might better serve a strong Allied military to concentrate fully on the mission at hand and then simply overwhelm the enemy. I could see the wisdom in what he was saying.

To make clear - both sides are strong, especially at sea and in the air. The Allies have not suddenly grow much stronger than Japan. So I can lose the upcoming battles. But the Allies are strong enough to offer battle now. I just want to do so on my terms, to the extent possible, and on ground that is most conducive to victory.

[Mike Dubost]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Brooklyn born, raised in Queens with zero New York accent. My wife, born in Manhattan, raised in Queens has a heavy Queens accent. He have know each other since we are 16. My kids can't figure out why their father has no accent and their mother does. I can't figure it either. I suppose some people retain accents and some don't

Yeah, accents are funny things. I am California born and raised, and until 2001, I'd never even visited New England. A couple of years before that, one of my co-workers told me he knew which neighborhood in Boston I was from. I had to explain to him why I burst out laughing.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



The Moose one time offered an opinion that I really liked. He acknowledged the need for (or advantages of)surprise and deception early in the game. But he felt like there comes a time when using time and assets to create deception may actually be counterproductive. That it might better serve a strong Allied military to concentrate fully on the mission at hand and then simply overwhelm the enemy. I could see the wisdom in what he was saying.

Yes, I think Mooseman has a valid point here. But not really until after 1/44. Then you can apply power to force him to fight on any grounds. No sense pitty patting around when you have the strength.

[JeffroK]

I think deception, surprise, and overwhelming strength are vital. (Especially in a game where japanese forces are not normal)

Deception to either lure away defenders or to make JIII delay in deciding what to react to.
(IMVHO, India & Australia should give you scope to nibble at the edges and keep his interest)

Surprise, within the bounds of your attacking a viable target, hitting somewhere that is not expected, or at a time unexpected. Dont do to many "Left-Right combos"

JIII may think he is used to your strategy & tactics, dont get into a rut of repeating too often.

Then kick him hard.

[CaptBeefheart]

This extensive dialect discussion probably has JIII panicking that a major op is in the works.

Cheers,
CC

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

This extensive dialect discussion probably has JIII panicking that a major op is in the works.

Cheers,
CC

Been thinking the same thing. He reacts to the activity he sees on the opposing AAR.

[Canoerebel]

8/02/43

You gents have been part of my elaborately planned Southern Dialects and Idioms Maskirovka. This was Operation Clampett. But you're right - the level of activity could have John a bit on edge.

Roller Coaster: No combat today but there's lots of activity with forces in close proximity. John has a wolf pack centered close to Mili. I have xAKs unloading there and Fletchers about to move from there to Jaluit, where they'll cover for a largely naked xAK/xAP TF that is tasked with loading two support units tonight. This is part of an important effort to draw down the units at Jaluit, which is badly overstacked and therefore chronically short on supply. So, once again, there's a very non-sexy but significant operation underway on John's back porch.

Wasp and Lex ten days from completing upgrades. Canadians 20 hexes from Pearl. Today checked all fighter squadrons, especially the newly arrived ones aboard Olustee and Kettle Creek, and rotated out low-experienced pilots for veterans.

Circus: Quieter up here. A large enemy combat TF is at Shemya.

KB: No sign of enemy carriers anywhere. A PBY-Recon unit assigned to recon Truk tomorrow. I haven't targeted it before.

[ny59giants]

A PBY-Recon unit assigned to recon Truk tomorrow

I would have these long range recon planes active from Gilberts over to western Australia just to keep John guessing. Find a base lightly defended and send in 48 B-24s to wake him up and shifting assets.

[Flicker]

CR - I enjoy reading your AAR, thank you.

Looking at the map you posted I notice that you don't seem to have much of a sub presence off the southern coasts of Japan to Okinawa and Taiwan. Is there a prohibitive ASW presence? Does John use those sea lanes?

I like Option #3 - clean up the Aleutians and Marshalls, then move on New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and the Solomons, with an eye on Port Moresby. Not sexy, but it builds on your strengths and current success. I also like fighting the land war in Asia (contra Vizzini since Allies are Asia and you've got a strong position in China), so taking Rangoon and opening the road to China might help keep Japan busy (if you've got the troops after Sabang).

[Canoerebel]

John is attending to the Solomons and points west. Kaiving airfield went to level one a few days back; SigInt has ships inbound to Aitape on the New Guinea coast. Lots of recent SigInt of divisions bound for Saipan. Etc.

I'm using recon to probe a bit, but to this point the main function has been to keep tabs on the big airfields at Tabituea, Kusaie, Ponape, Kwaj, Roi-Namur and Eniwetok. I've wanted to keep tabs on whether John is reinforcing or drawing down the forward bases and whether combat ships or carriers are inbound. I have enough information now so that I can divert a squadron from time to time to probe deeper for info or to get John thinking. Hence the mission to Truk.

John should have become accustomed by now to the idea that I have a history of striking deep in unexpected, non-reconned areas. Yet, I think he does respond sharply to recon missions.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Flicker

CR - I enjoy reading your AAR, thank you.

Looking at the map you posted I notice that you don't seem to have much of a sub presence off the southern coasts of Japan to Okinawa and Taiwan. Is there a prohibitive ASW presence? Does John use those sea lanes?

I like Option #3 - clean up the Aleutians and Marshalls, then move on New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and the Solomons, with an eye on Port Moresby. Not sexy, but it builds on your strengths and current success. I also like fighting the land war in Asia (contra Vizzini since Allies are Asia and you've got a strong position in China), so taking Rangoon and opening the road to China might help keep Japan busy (if you've got the troops after Sabang).

1. For most of the game, Allied subs were very active south of Japan and in the South China Sea. But I drew most of them off two months ago as Circus got underway. In part this was because John was giving a lot more attention to ASW in those regions, but mainly it was because I knew KB and Kaigun would be posted in narrowly defined regions - Aleutians and Marshalls. So most subs are now patrolling between the Aleuts and Japan, on the one hand, and in CenPac, on the other. The CenPac concentration will move between KB and Truk if and when there's a big carrier battle.

If the ops in the Marshalls and Aleutians are successful, the Allies will move west and north in CenPac. This fall, Wake, Marcus, Eniwetok and Ponape will be targeted. Then Truk.

A primary objective is going to be to take John's primary ports. So Rabaul and Babeldoab are on the list for late in the year or more likely early '44.

The Allies will not move south from the Marshalls to New Caledonia, et al. Rather, these areas will be rendered no longer viable by the main westward movement. Then, as John draws down his garrisons (this will be inevitable unless the Allies lose a carrier battle), "mop-up" amphib ops from Oz and New Zealand will move north. That's why the East African division is in Australia and prepping for Noumea.

In my WitP game versus John, he took nearly all Australia and held it in a hammerlock well into '43. But when I invaded Hokkaido in great strength it rendered Oz irrelevant. John had to withdraw his entire army from Oz post-haste. He did so too. That's what we're looking at here, though in a more gradual sense. John will be pleased to extract troops from exposed forward positions, feeling that he's succeeded in Dunkirk-type missions, preserving his army to fight another day. But that coin has two sides. I can't fight everywhere. So I want to use the threat of outflanking to persuade John to retire.

[Canoerebel]

While hoping for victory in a carrier battle, I'm also allowing for the possibility of defeat.

In that case, Allied offensive operations will slow for awhile and the new bases in the Aluetians and Marshalls would have to stand against counterattacks.

The Aleutians are ready. All troops have been redistributed and forts, garrisons and supply are good. John could pick off a few of the weaker or more exposed bases - Ulak and Atka being the most likely - but he's not going anywhere meaningful here.

The Marshalls and Giblerts are another matter. These bases have good garrisons and good forts now, but several bases are overstacked and supply is an issue at more than half the bases. So a major part of the upcoming operation will be defensive in nature. While the invasion of Roi-Namur is underway with the attendant possibility of a carrier clash, I'll also be retrieving excess troops and bringing in alot more supply.

[Flicker]

Your list of targets could point to Luzon. Does John use Manila as a primary port? Or would Manila be even farther away than a bridge?

Can you comment on your thoughts regarding Burma / China? My impression is that you can't support large amphibious operations in the DEI for awhile and that you're kind of strapped for troops to push on Burma. Has John reinforced Burma enough to threaten your 'Imphal' line (for want of a better term).

Are you still thinking about Java or did Sumatra wreck that idea? Where are those Ozzie divisions

John's mod seems to beef up everything... Does he get a significant increase in LCUs?

[Canoerebel]

I don't think Reluctant Admiral beefs up LCUs. IE, I don't think John gets the four extra divisions that come with Scenario 2.

Luzon is something I'm looking at, though its probably a year down the road. Events and cirucmstances could well change the ultimate "big move" target.

I'm working hard in Burma, Assam and China to shore up defenses on the possibility that John might use his Sumatra Victory Dividend (all the troops freed up for use elsewhere). The Assam coast is strongly held. The Imphal line would be vulnerable to a major overland campaign, but I'd have plenty of notice and could shore up the defenses. If John showed signs of moving in strength overland against Imphal or vicinity, my first thought would be that he's trying to draw troops there in order to then invade NE India to cut them off.

There are risks for me in India right now, but I think I'd like to see John do something that has the potential to turn into a Tar Baby for him.

Right now I don't have the shipping or the troops to engage in amphibious operations (or any offensive operations) in SEAC or the DEI the short term. In the long term, of course, that will change.

[poodlebrain]

I'm working hard in Burma, Assam and China to shore up defenses on the possibility that John might use his Sumatra Victory Dividend (all the troops freed up for use elsewhere).

I would love to see you re-invade Sumatra, but farther south around Padang and the barrier islands off the west coast of Sumatra. John would have to commit the IJN to the Indian Ocean in order to prevent you from reinforcing and building bases from which you could establish air superiority over oil centers vital to the Japanese economy and war effort. Without a significant Japanese victory at sea, the 2nd Battle of Sumatra would require the Japanese to fight another land campaign in terrain that is worse for them than the 1st Battle of Sumatra.

Just think how much pleasure you would get from exploiting a weakness caused by his attempt to exploit the Sumatra Victory Dividend? It would provide years worth of trash talk material, and render bragging rights from the 1st Battle of Sumatra moot. It would be your "I shall return" moment.

[Canoerebel]

8/3/43

What? Where? John sent me this cryptic note with the turn: "See whatever you can make of this turn." This suggested that something a bit unusual (but not dramatic or decisive) had happened somewhere. I figured someting like a bunch of TFs bumping into each other and declining to give battle, or the like. So I watched the Replay carefully and didn't see anything out of the ordinary. So then I think, 'Hmmm, perhaps that recon of Truk caught KB in port." I open the file to check. Nothing. So then I scour the map for evidence that a Japanese TF or massive body of troops has suddenly appeared deep behind my lines or something. Nothing.

You want to drive a player crazy? Ask him a vague question when there's nothing to be found. I've scoured the map and I'll keep scouring. But I don't see anything.

Then I saw the title to his latest AAR post: "Knife Fight." So I think, "Perhaps a sync bug hit and I missed something." So I return to the map and look for evidence of a naval battle or a big dogfight somewhere. Nothing.

What in the WORLD is John talking about?

Circus: The only engagement of note on the entire map was a Netty bombing strike on Adak, which was a useless exercise. In return for four hits that were immediately repaired, John lost 10 Netties to flak. Okay, a small victory for the Allies. But that's the kind of little affair that happens a zilliion times during a game. Not something that leads to a "see what you can make of this" comment.

Roller Coaster: No clashes here today, which is exactly what I wanted. That xAK/xAP TF at Jaluit does a great job of loading two units, wieghs anchor, and makes Mili in a single turn. Of course, now it has to make it to Pearl, and that's a long journey. But the garrison at Jaluit is reduced from 20k to 15k, which is a big step in the right direction (the stacking limit is 6k). Another xAK TF unloaded some supply at Mili. But it will cease and move over to Jaluit.

Elsewhere: Nothing seems to be amiss anywhere. So what this about a "Knife Fight" and "see whatever you can make of this."?

[&:]

[witpqs]

Tell him you saw nothing and ask if it was a sync bug???