Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

[Lowpe]

Given my doubtful ability to stop a huge invasion force, I am worried about deep invasions, especially in clear hexes without rail. Kanoya springs to mind, as does Moppo. But here in China is another good choice.

Invading Japan, especially at rail junctions seems very, very dangerous for the Allies.

However, on the other hand, stopping a forced 5 division invasion seems very difficult for Japan to do without a rail connection.

Lots more Engineers arrive back from the perimeter. They will be expanding forts in key locations shortly.

[JocMeister]

I think you will have to settle for containing any landing...as you say he can probably land 3-4 divisions on the fist day. You can´t defend every hex against that. But if you spot him early enough you may have time to move in enough to contain him at one base or a smaller area.

Perhaps keep a reserve in rail mode somewhere?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I think you will have to settle for containing any landing...as you say he can probably land 3-4 divisions on the fist day. You can´t defend every hex against that. But if you spot him early enough you may have time to move in enough to contain him at one base or a smaller area.

Perhaps keep a reserve in rail mode somewhere?

I am doing that. [:)] Plus tanks in bases where they can cover several likely invasions from 1 hex away.

The ability to move in, 2-3K AV, even in SR mode will greatly help the defense especially if the forts are high. One of the reasons I think an invasion in a rail hex is an Allied mistake. Can't react that fast to a non rail hex.

Really, I am looking at bases where if he invaded in strength would cut off huge amounts of land combat victory points. Losing Haiphong, would mean losing all the troops to the west for example. Pakhoi would be even worse. The Allies could put together a 1500 ship invasion force and really invade anywhere. [:(]

China, too, with our HR no strategic bombing there, is a huge supply generator for me and doesn't require any fighters to protect.

I have been thinking about railing the reserves to likely invasion beaches and letting them sit there a week. A huge increase in troops present might force the Allies to reset prep? I probably could only do that once or twice, and I would have to guess right.

Plus, given the Kurile moves, and Georgetown invasion, perhaps the Allies are going after base vp & land vp now and not planning to invade Honshu. They will seek to get their 40K strategic vp and hope that with other losses it gives them victory prior to 45.

My counter to that is force preservation, successful attacks on a spread out Allied offensive, and the 21K land combat VP Japan has already inflicted on the Allies. Those points aren't going anywhere, and make an Allied AV in 44 difficult barring a big move IF I can preserve my Army & prevent a Honshu invasion.

[Lowpe]

Allied air losses from yesterday.

I think that is 10% of his Jugs planes total available, and 30% of what he has so far.

He should have a total of 160 Spitfires by the end of the month, so losses there are heavy too.

No Corsair report there, but the losses are heavy at over 400++

Unfortunately, my front line fighter pools are exhausted.[X(] I am living on the 30-40 I make daily. Not enough. But perhaps I can slow him down till 45.[:)] Only 8 more months of destruction to go.[X(]

If I fall back to the Vinh line now, he will be knocking on that door in May, and perhaps readying a Chinese invasion in July of 44. That is if he doesn't invade Honshu/Korea prior. Seems hard to think I will not face a large invasion from Hokkaido before July.

[Lowpe]

I have come to such an epiphany about IJA Artillery...unfortunately there isn't a great deal on the horizon.[:(]

Three requirements to hold a ground position: Artillery, AA, good terrain (simplification, but you get the idea). Unfortunately, every position can be flanked. It is a war of maneuver, and I am surprised that the Allies don't do more of it. Without all three, you have to pray the Allies don't want it...well, it doesn't matter as it can't be held. Bluff and misdirection then are your only hopes.

He broke the Bangkok/Moulmein road by non stop bombing of units stuck in the jungle with no AA (well, the AA arrived to late).

An AA regiment there earlier might have saved the position. And it takes 15cm or better Artillery to stop Allied tanks.

The Rockets below will be like mortars, great against soft targets! I hope I can use them, and they actually see combat.

[JocMeister]

Sounds like you are on top of it. [:)]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I have been thinking about railing the reserves to likely invasion beaches and letting them sit there a week. A huge increase in troops present might force the Allies to reset prep? I probably could only do that once or twice, and I would have to guess right.

Might work. But he has to see them there in order to work. Does he recon a lot in certain places?

[Lowpe]

One of the little problems that aren't usually featured in AARs is how to hide victory points.

Here, in Central China, is almost 200 merchant ships. They are just riding at anchor, their home base is Fusan, but I can switch that to facilitate fuel flow should I need to.

If they were disbanded in port the Allies would eventually bomb there.

Now, it has been brought up that when the Honshu invasion comes they should charge to absorb air and naval ammunition, but I can't bring myself to do that.

So here they are, sitting in the river.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

One of the little problems that aren't usually featured in AARs is how to hide victory points.

Here, in Central China, is almost 200 merchant ships. They are just riding at anchor, their home base is Fusan, but I can switch that to facilitate fuel flow should I need to.

If they were disbanded in port the Allies would eventually bomb there.

Now, it has been brought up that when the Honshu invasion comes they should charge to absorb air and naval ammunition, but I can't bring myself to do that.

So here they are, sitting in the river.

I sense future riverboat casinos...

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Might work. But he has to see them there in order to work. Does he recon a lot in certain places?

We are playing a lot of recon games. Prior to the Hokkaido invasion, his recon was active Mindanao to Samar; when I spotted the invasion fleet, his recon switched to the Bonins, all the time Hokkaido was unobserved.

On Honshu he had active recon on Kanoya until I moved a Division plus there, now it is quiet. But his recon on Akita and Hachinohe have always been strong -- really it has been strong wherever I have plane or engine factories.

At Hachinohe he tried a coastal bombardment once, and the Wake CD unit and another really chewed up a few Cruisers and may have sunk two destroyers. He hasn't been back since.[:)]

I always thought he would land right next to Tokyo: on the four clear beach hexes of Iwaki, Sendai, Ustonomyia and Chiba.

But having given thought to it, it seems a more likely point of attack is off the railroads.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I sense future riverboat casinos...

I foresee future great fishing as all the wrecks...oh well, you are an optimist I think.[;)]

[Lowpe]

Bangkok, Ayuthia decision time.

I can't decide. [&:] On one hand, a forced river crossing with no prep could be very painful for the Allies.

Rather than force a decision, since I am off to other obligations for the rest of day, I will sleep on it. This is a week with a lot of family time required and may only be able to flip 2 more turns for the whole week.

Really tough decision. Right now there is about 650 AV in each with 2000 guns in each hex; but there are some really disabled divisions there that need R&R. Half the 1st Tank Division is in field repairs.[X(]

I could rail in three relatively fresh divisions from the rear.

It might all be moot, if the Allies strike east of Ayuthia (off road) to start to isolate Bangkok & Ayuthia, but that would make my decision for me and still buy my 8 days at the least more if he tries to go east down the road first and I can hold there.

I just dumped a bunch of supply at Cam Ranh Bay (20k), I will see if I can't dump a bunch at Saigon. 40K just unloaded at Shanghai perhaps the last of the supply I can afford to ship from Honshu. Other supply convoys are unloading at Okinawa, Daito, and enroute to the Bonins.

[Alfred]

Bangkok should never be abandoned even if it means the entire garrison is lost.

You should ponder the following points.

1.  Force preservation, which you have mentioned as being a counter to the Allies getting an auto victory before 1945, is not the correct approach.  IRL it would be.  IRL destroyed units are not rapidly replaced whereas they are in AE.  IRL chain of command is critical so you can't assemble a hodgepodge of drips and drabs and present an effective defence whereas this is possible in AE.  IRL no VPs are assigned to cities and accordingly, unless there is a good strategic reason for holding on to specific pieces of real estate, terrain is given up in favour of preserving the more valuable field army; which field army can subsequently recapture the abandoned real estate.  This is not so in AE.

2.  In AE (just as IRL) there are times when units must be sacrificed.  Particularly when the Allies gain 1 VP from destroying 6 Japanese devices and you gain 1 VP from destroying 3 Western Allied devices.  To get an auto victory in 1945 the Allies need a 2:1 VP lead.  It is quite some time since you provided details on VPs but my recollection was that the Allies had not yet achieved a 2:1 ratio.  Which all means that for every 12 Japanese devices destroyed by the Allies they must lose less than 3 western Allied devices.  Japan can lose huge amounts of troops and still come out on top.

3.  The heart of the Vinh line defences must be fresh troops not involved in the Burma and Thailand fighting.  It is a serious mistake to rely on extricating (=force preserving) units from Bangkok etc to man the Vinh line.

4.  Besides the Bangkok/Ayuthia line, there are 3 other stop lines before the Vinh line.

(a) Siem Reap/Battambang/Chanthaburi line with it's flank held by the Ubon/Pakse line
(b) Saigon/Bien Hoa/Kratie line
(c) Can Ranh Bay/Dalat line

All these lines are on good defensive terrain.  Line (b) has useful supply generation capacity and both (b) and (c) have good ports which allows for blockade running.  All three lines allow for air reinforcement and evacuation.  All three lines buy time for further strengthening the Vinh line.

Whilst both Ubon and Pakse are not on good defensive terrain, an Allied thrust down this axis is very vulnerable to a counter attack out of stop line (a) in particular.

5.  The 14th Division has been severely battered so it makes sense for it to be entrained and about to be sent out of Ayuthia.  Any other units left in Ayuthia or Bangkok similarly down to 20% of TOE could also be sent back to one of the stop lines to partially recover (don't forget to reset their Objective).  But units above this level can be left at Bangkok/Ayuthia as they will recover effectiveness more quickly than the enemy.  At Bangkok you don't need units to be at 80% of TOE and entrenched behind level 5 fortifications in order to make Bangkok a tough fight for the Allies.

6.  You can send in single ship blockade runners to the ports on the various stop lines (including Bangkok) with supplies.  Not only does this improve your combat power directly but it will decoy enemy air power away from  hitting your defenders.  A few lost VPs from sunk merchantmen will be worthwhile.  You have plenty of unemployed merchantmen hiding on the Yangste.


At the absolute minimum you should sit and see if Ayuthia is the enemy focus (which as said before, it should be).  You would then be in a good position to see how well Bangkok would stand up and still have time to evacuate most of the garrison.  Although specifics of the defence have not been provided I would be surprised if Bangkok and the three stop lines did not buy, as a minimum another month to improve the Vinh line.

Alfred

Edit:

PS. I forgot to address your point about railing in 3 fresh divisions. Do not do that unless the divisions are prepped for Bangkok. If not prepped they are better deployed to where they are prepped. Although you could consider changing their Objective and redeploy them to the stop lines mentioned above

[Lowpe]

Wow, that was a magnum opus Alfred![&o]

Only time for a very short reply -- the victory point ratio stands at 1.3 something to 1 in favor of the Allies.

My thinking is that the land combat points provide me an offsetting cushion to absorb the strategic victory points from Allied bombing of Honshu. I certainly see the value of grabbing, if possible, 5000 victory points in 42 from the strategic bombing of Australia like Mr. Kane recently.

One other point, the loss of huge amounts of troops may very well come off in a favorable victory point light, but their rebuilding comes off at a huge supply cost.[X(] Even if you only rebuild the most essential troops it can be staggering (I think).

The 14th ID will be gone & I am thinking about sending them all the way back to Haiphong...still haven't had time to work on the turn.[&:] Somewhere, I read that maximum morale improvement comes from being more than 10 hexes away from the enemy. Of course, their morale should improve as they take on fresh troops too.

Forts are 2 at Bangkok and will be 3 at Ayuthia in a day. I think he will attempt to force the jungle road a little north and east of Ayuthia, failing that then cut south and attempt to encircle Bangkok before trying for a river crossing assault on Ayuthia/Bangkok.

Lots to think about.[:)]

[Lowpe]

Turn is done and away, trying some cute Japanese ambushes this turn. I try for them almost every turn, but usually fail for one reason or another, but I have a good feeling today.[:)]

Bangkok and Ayuthia we will see what the Allies are up to. I have given Alfred's sage advice a lot of pondering, and re-reading.

I have too many troops in the open this day, and as always not enough AA.

At Bangkok I have 2 divisions prepped at 100% and one HQ with a horrible commanders. 200 points to replace him, plus the unit disbands in a couple of months (static RTA HQ). If he attempts to make a forced river crossing into Bangkok, I will bite the bullet and swap him with somebody good. Heck, I might do it anyway although I need the pp to finish buying out an excellent division in Hong Kong which is headed for Saigon/Battambang, if they can make it in time.

The 1st Tank Divison is at Bangkok, but preparing for Ayuthia. I will simply reinforce Ayuthia if a forced river crossing looks evident. There are some other support troops that will do the same. The 4th Tank Regiment, the troops that rescued the 4th ID on the Bangkok/Moumlein road is back at Udon Thanai repairing/reinforcing but is fully prepped for Bangkok too. It is comprised fully of light tanks, but could do so good I think.

1 more day until the Fuso gets released from the Singers port....I am hoping I can get her away. Speaking of Singers, I reinforced it with a Brigade today.

After having taken a breather for the last couple of days, the Japanese transport planes are flying again in large numbers. A large convoy of support troops is on the way to Singers, fuel and oil still shipping (can't help myself), and some of the junks are heading to possible supply Bangkok.

[Lokasenna]

Cute Japanese ambushes? Do you mean cats? Perhaps in boxes?

[Alfred]

Lowpe,
 
Oi, choices, always with the choices.  That is the fundamental problem, making the best decisions from a list of unfavourable choices.  Just a few quick responses to your penultimate post.
 
1.  Yes rebuilding divisions will cost a lot of supply.  But in many instances it is the lesser evil to experience.  The point is that you don't need to fully rebuild each division, let alone rebuild all destroyed units.
 
2.  Whoever told you a distance of 10 hexes from the enemy is needed to maximise LCU morale recovery has badly misled you.  No such requirement exists.
 
3.  The 14th div is hors d'combat so it makes sense to send it back to a well supplied rear area base for R & R.  However it should be given now as it's objective the base it will ultimately be sent to defend.  The same applies to any LCU unit withdrawn from the frontline, their ultimate defensive position must be identified as their objective when they vacate the frontline.
 
4.  Bangkok forts at level 2 provide a 1.25x multiplier to the unadjusted assault strength.  Light urban terrain gives a 2x multiplier.  Plus the HQ combat bonus if prepped properly which can amount up to 100%.  Thus with 650 unadjusted assault value currently at Bangkok, you are looking at
 [center](650)(1.25)(2) = 1625 adjusted assault value[/center][center] [/center][left]In reality that is a ball park figure as you will have disruption, fatigue and morale, perhaps even supply deflators.  But the enemy incurs an unavoidable disruption when crossing the river and their units have been fighting hard for a while now so they have their own difficulties to overcome.  And we are not factoring in any combat benefits for you from HQ + LCU prep.[/left][left] [/left][left]Is it likely that approximately 3200 Allied AV will cross over in the one movement.  I doubt it, at least not before some time elapses for the assembly of such a force (reminder about the value of keeping Uttradit).  Thus Bangkok should be able to hold against the initial shock attack.  If no Allied combat engineers are in the initial crossing, there is quite a reasonable chance that the forts will hold and a delay before the next Allied attack ensues.[/left][left] [/left][left]5.  The position at Ayuthia is not as good.  Level 3 forts there provide a 1.5x multiplier with no terrain assistance.  Thus there you are looking at only (650)(1.5) = 975 adjusted AV.  An Allied crossing of 2300 AV might suffice to overwhelm the defences.  Which is partly why I have said from the beginning that the proper Allied path into Bangkok is via Ayuthia.  Still this is not a hopeless scenario for Japan.[/left][left] [/left][left]Alfred [/left]

[witpqs]

I thought it was about .22 for each fortification level (max = x3, max level = 9, so (3-1)/9 = 0.222222...)?

So level 2 fortifications would be 1.44x (~1.5x not ~1.25x) and level 3 fortifications would be 1.66x (somewhat greater than ~1.5x).

Not meaning to throw off any main points.

[MrKane]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Turn is done and away, trying some cute Japanese ambushes this turn. I try for them almost every turn, but usually fail for one reason or another, but I have a good feeling today.[:)]

Bangkok and Ayuthia we will see what the Allies are up to. I have given Alfred's sage advice a lot of pondering, and re-reading.

I have too many troops in the open this day, and as always not enough AA.

At Bangkok I have 2 divisions prepped at 100% and one HQ with a horrible commanders. 200 points to replace him, plus the unit disbands in a couple of months (static RTA HQ). If he attempts to make a forced river crossing into Bangkok, I will bite the bullet and swap him with somebody good. Heck, I might do it anyway although I need the pp to finish buying out an excellent division in Hong Kong which is headed for Saigon/Battambang, if they can make it in time.

The 1st Tank Divison is at Bangkok, but preparing for Ayuthia. I will simply reinforce Ayuthia if a forced river crossing looks evident. There are some other support troops that will do the same. The 4th Tank Regiment, the troops that rescued the 4th ID on the Bangkok/Moumlein road is back at Udon Thanai repairing/reinforcing but is fully prepped for Bangkok too. It is comprised fully of light tanks, but could do so good I think.

1 more day until the Fuso gets released from the Singers port....I am hoping I can get her away. Speaking of Singers, I reinforced it with a Brigade today.

After having taken a breather for the last couple of days, the Japanese transport planes are flying again in large numbers. A large convoy of support troops is on the way to Singers, fuel and oil still shipping (can't help myself), and some of the junks are heading to possible supply Bangkok.

It will be difficult to hold Bangkok without any Anti-Tank Regiment and with just level 2 fort at this point of game. It would be very good to hold it, but with forces you have there I do not see any chance to do it. BTW: There is several nice cheap anti-tanks regiments facing Russians, I hope you got them all.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: MrKane

It will be difficult to hold Bangkok without any Anti-Tank Regiment and with just level 2 fort at this point of game. It would be very good to hold it, but with forces you have there I do not see any chance to do it. BTW: There is several nice cheap anti-tanks regiments facing Russians, I hope you got them all.

I am sorry, I did not post everything that is there merely some of the better prepared infantry divisions.

There are about 2,000 guns there, including 2 units of 30 cm howitzer artillery monsters. Ayuthia has as many guns (actually more I think), and 2 or 3 rapid fire 47 mm AT units. I am not as worried about the artillery (other than losing it), which is in excellent shape, but rather the infantry which for the most part got roughly handled in the retreat thru the clear hex of death bar a couple of divisions.

However they are recovering nicely.

Manchuko has been picked clean of AT units.[;)]

[Lowpe]

Here is the tale of the 4th Infantry Division and their retreat down the Bangkok/Moulmein road. The stuff of legends!

In looking back at the retreat, I think I didn't not need to leave the 14th ID out for that last day...they might have made Bangkok with the rest of the troops.