The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

8/9/43

Roller Coaster: Steroid KB (900+ aircraft) is NE of the Marshalls and west of Johnson Island, on a southeasterly heading. I'm surprised John has penetrated this deep.

Mini KB is SE of Tarawa, about 25 hexes from Steroid KB. I'm surprised John would have divided carrier forces this far forward.

But Death Star isn't quite ready to sail. Wasp and Lex need three more days to complete upgrades. Then Death Star sails, willing to accept battle anywhere between Pearl and the Marshalls. John might have slightly more aircraft, but any of his cripples would have to negotiate the Marshalls. When I think about it, I just can't imagine he'd accept battle here. I expect him to retire if he catches a glimpse of Death Star sortying.

SBDs out of Ailinglaplap sortied with F4F escorts. Both got chewed up against George CAP at Kwaj, but nevertheless managed a few squad-killing hits on xAKs there.

UP at San Fran, the damaged RN R-Class BB withdrew.

Circus: Quiet today. A sub missed a shot at an xAP NE of Japan. Perhaps these are troop carriers bound for Ulak. John is now conducting daily reconnaissance of this base, and I think he interest in genuine. I'm beginning to gather the makings of a real TF in NoPac - a handful of Fletchers, CL Honolulu, and BB Maryland. I'm not sure I want to expose anything except the Fletchers to frontline combat.

[1275psi]

John is feeding on his oats, as you are getting lots and lots of turns
He thinks a big win is in the offing, so lets rock

I can tell, as I am receiving my turns pretty infrequently, as my game is "boring" at the moment.

He does give away a lot in his e mails.........
I don't write much back, which I think annoys him, its a pretty brutal choice, write AAR,
or big e mails.

In any game, I wonder what happens if KB is suddenly gutted........

[CaptBeefheart]

Cheers,
CC

[Canoerebel]

8/10/43

Roller Coaster: Both sets of enemy carriers pull back a bit, Steroid KB in the north, Mini KB in the south. No action to speak of today, though Allied patrols, which include 4EB and Mitchells, report hits on shipping here and there.

The Allied carriers are lollygagging a bit at Pearl. Wasp is two days from ready; but Saratoga hung up a bit and is still showing three. Funny how close we are to a major engagement, yet logistics and other things controls the pace. The Allies engaged in back-to-back operations from late May through mid July. Now they've stood down for more than three weeks. If things go well, they'll resume offensive activities in a few days and that will continue into the autumn months.

Since I've been away from the game so long, and since John has an enhanced carrier OOB that he knows well and that I'm still fuzzy on, he may have a better feel for how a carrier battle plays out. But I'm willing to accept battle in the Marshalls or at any point east.

I'm not sure what John is thinking nor what he's up to. The courses and positions of the enemy carriers could suggest they are a blocking force. Perhaps John is preparing to invade in the Marshalls. It could e that he's withdrawing troops. Recon reports Roi-Namur garrison down.

I've spent a lot of time looking at Roi and Kwaj, imaging what subs and minelayers might do in the way of choking the narrow passages.

Circus: Still quiet up here, but probably not for much longer. John almost certainly is gathering to strike, and the Allies will soon have enough Fletchers forward to get more assertive with air strikes (the Fletchers can offer some protection again enemy bombardment runs). 2nd Marine Div. at Umnak is fully battle ready and 100% prepped. John will never come this far, but it's reassuring knowing there's a rock that would stand against any tide.

[Canoerebel]

I thought our game might slow down once Sabang fell, but it ended up holding out so long that the Pacific operations got underway. The pace in this game has been so intense that it's never let up; at least, not since spring of '42, which we were playing in early 2013.

Right now John has a big and powerful navy, so he's justifiably feeling "potent." But I think it's a bit misleading. I really do think he's short enough on capital ships (BBs and CAs) that a major setback would expose the weakened state of the Kaigun.

If he wins a lopsided carrier battle, then things will truly slow down. If he loses, the game enters a different and much different phase. It it's a bloodbath with both sides taking heavy losses, that should favor the Allies.

ORIGINAL: 1275psi

John is feeding on his oats, as you are getting lots and lots of turns
He thinks a big win is in the offing, so lets rock

I can tell, as I am receiving my turns pretty infrequently, as my game is "boring" at the moment.

He does give away a lot in his e mails.........
I don't write much back, which I think annoys him, its a pretty brutal choice, write AAR,
or big e mails.

In any game, I wonder what happens if KB is suddenly gutted........

[BBfanboy]

Against that steroid KB I would try to get the battle where his carriers will split their strikes between an Amphib TF with BBs and your carriers. The Amphib TF can be carrying supply only since you do need to deliver some to your new bases and want faster unloading.

From the placement of those two carrier TFs it looks like John is doing the same thing the IJN did in real life - splitting his forces with a complicated plan to try and trap your forces between them. If anything delays one of the jaws of his trap .... [:)]

[Mike McCreery]

Anyone want to figure out how much fuel it takes to get most of the KB that far out into Pacific waters?

You dont have to engage him, you just have to run him around until he runs out of gas....

It is August of 1943 and I dont think his carrier arm nor his battleship fleets have stopped moving/bombarding/attacking for a year straight?

[paullus99]

If he's game on running around so much, then strikes against his logistics make the most sense...see if you can identify and kill as many AOs as possible & then see how far he gets.

[Canoerebel]

Paullus: USN subs have taken out two AOs since the Pacific operations commenced in May. This follows on a surface engagement in the Indian Ocean back in January in which two or three AOs were sunk. I have alot of subs working the Marshalls and Truk (with alot more on the way, which is my best chance of taking out others.

Wargmr: I think John's ships have been at sea more or less for a year now. His BBs were in constant motion during the Sabang operation, but whether those short distance runs ate alot of fuel, I don't know. I do know that John is spending the supply to repair Medan's oil production. I have also given thought to giving priority to Operation Carnival (Amchitka), sending Death Star north on the likelihood that where it goes, KB follows, using fuel all the while. This remains a possibility, though I'm still favoring the Marshalls campaign.

BBFanboy: The upcoming ops will involve alot of shipping - combat ships, carrier TFs, replenishment, support (AKE and AE bound for Jaluit), supply (alot of those) and a few amphibious TFs (carrying the troops for Roi and Kwaj). So John will face a target rich environment.

[Mike McCreery]

Being August it might be a good time to think really hard where you want your strategic bombing assets should be located when that bombing HR is up. It ends in about 3 1/2 months right?

Just enough time to prep something really special!!

If you dont have the troops for something really special then prep something that will cause John to move in a predictable way and cause the final carrier battle you desire on your terms.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Being August it might be a good time to think really hard where you want your strategic bombing assets should be located when that bombing HR is up. It ends in about 3 1/2 months right?

Just enough time to prep something really special!!

If you dont have the troops for something really special then prep something that will cause John to move in a predictable way and cause the final carrier battle you desire on your terms.

Great idea. I have always wanted to do a HB raid on Truk's port.

[Jellicoe]

9 AO's when I enquired awhile back. I don't know whether the Kaigun get more in this mod but from memory that is a pretty serious dent in the JFB inventory which woud mean more use of fixed bases and tankers. Not the end of the world when on the defensive but certainly hitting AO task forces will reduce the mobility/anchor the KB to where you want them?

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Being August it might be a good time to think really hard where you want your strategic bombing assets should be located when that bombing HR is up. It ends in about 3 1/2 months right?

Just enough time to prep something really special!!

If you dont have the troops for something really special then prep something that will cause John to move in a predictable way and cause the final carrier battle you desire on your terms.

Geography limits strategic bombing targets at this point in the game. The only practical targets are in Burma. All other targets are outside the range of Allied LBA. Strategic bombing of resource centers and light industry on the periphery of the Empire are inefficient use of Allied airpower. Zero VP gained for 1 or 2 VP lost for each aircraft lost, not to mention the loss of experienced pilots, is just not worth it.

So the allies are left with the few targets in Burma. Every experienced Japanese player knows this, and they can make strategic bombing quite costly. Despite that it is worth the effort for the Allies due to its effect on the Japanese economy, and it causes Japan to re-evaluate its desire to defend in northern Burma.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Being August it might be a good time to think really hard where you want your strategic bombing assets should be located when that bombing HR is up. It ends in about 3 1/2 months right?

Just enough time to prep something really special!!

If you dont have the troops for something really special then prep something that will cause John to move in a predictable way and cause the final carrier battle you desire on your terms.

Geography limits strategic bombing targets at this point in the game. The only practical targets are in Burma. All other targets are outside the range of Allied LBA. Strategic bombing of resource centers and light industry on the periphery of the Empire are inefficient use of Allied airpower. Zero VP gained for 1 or 2 VP lost for each aircraft lost, not to mention the loss of experienced pilots, is just not worth it.

So the allies are left with the few targets in Burma. Every experienced Japanese player knows this, and they can make strategic bombing quite costly. Despite that it is worth the effort for the Allies due to its effect on the Japanese economy, and it causes Japan to re-evaluate its desire to defend in northern Burma.

Maybe I was not very clear. CR has 3 1/2 months to prep an invasion that would position himself in favorable range of targets of opportunity.

[Canoerebel]

Everything I'm about to say is predicated on the Allies maintaining carrier parity or achieving superiority for the balance of the year. With that in mind, here's the general flow-chart:

1. Take Roi Namur and Kwajalein in August.
2. Move north to invade Amchitka. If this goes well, consider moving then on Attu and some (but not all) of remaining western Aluetians. All troops needed for these ops are already in theater.
3. Move back to CenPac to invade Eniwetok, Wake, Kusaie and Ponape - probably in October.
4. Before the end of the year, move on either Truk or Rabaul (or, if not the latter, a group of islands - like the Admiralties - that would do much the same in the way of cutting off John's LOC to SoPac).

In early 1944, I plan to continue west. Ultimately, the Allies will choose between the Philippines and Honshu for the big invasions of '44.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
4. Before the end of the year, move on either Truk or Rabaul

This will be a LOT of fun to watch, if it plays out. Off the top of my head I can't recall an AAR where either of these have been attacked, let alone taken.

[Canoerebel]

I've never invaded either place. I've taken a close look at Truk and it's shore guns. I think it's doable. Part of my reasoning is a preference for moving forward steadily, taking on and taking out as many enemy ground units as possible. I don't have the ground units to go deep anytime soon (so no chance that I'll leap forward to Java, Hokkaido, Philippines, etc.). I'm okay with this though. In fact, I like it.

[Lowpe]

Mr Kane took Truk, and so did Witpqs I believe.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
4. Before the end of the year, move on either Truk or Rabaul

This will be a LOT of fun to watch, if it plays out. Off the top of my head I can't recall an AAR where either of these have been attacked, let alone taken.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2966329

[Lecivius]

Oh sure, assign me homework [:D]