OT: Corona virus

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Lowpe
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: obvert




Although studies may exist, I know of two cases among friends here in London where children did pass it on to adults, their parents. In one, our good friend, the one and a half year old toddler had a mild cough and a moderate temperature, much like a cold. She then caught it and because her brother is a doctor, got a test immediately, which was positive. She's in her late 30s and recovered after some scary days, but nothing that made her go to hospital.

I've be vey interesting to read the Swiss study of course, since I've got one and another on the way, and the 3 yr old will be heading back to nursery soon. There is no distancing of under fives.

I understand your concern, but how is it known the toddler caught the illness first or that they weren't infected by different sources.

This is from April 20th https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... -they-last :

It is not always possible to know when people were first infected, especially if they may have received several 'doses' of virus.
There seems to be significant variation in the length of time it takes people to develop symptoms.
Some countries only test (and confirm) coronavirus in people with severe infection, and it's not known if the incubation period for people with critical/severe/moderate/mild infection is different.
It's thought that many people do not develop symptoms (they are 'asymptomatic') so there are no symptoms to count back from.
However, one study has looked at confirmed cases from 50 provinces, regions and countries outside Wuhan, where it was possible to identify a single source of infection. They found that:

The median incubation period (half of all cases occur before this time and half after) was 5.1 days.
97.5% of people who develop symptoms will have got them within 11.5 days.

----

The idea of getting several doses of the virus from different sources seems to have merit.

I seriously question data and numbers provided by China (and Pennsylvania!) and perhaps these doctors do to, and the study is accurate.

Sure. It's always possible. In this case it really does point fairly certainly to the toddler as the source of the virus for the mother.

They are in our nursery but in the lower age room. We took our daughter out a week before the schools closed since my work had transitioned to home already. They stayed in another 3 days of the following week. They then packed up and travelled to the country house they'd been fixing up. Just the three, mum, dad and toddler.

About five days after arriving, the toddler became sick. He was sick for about 4-5 days, but very mildly. The mother became sick after his symptoms tapered off. Just a little cough, then a slight temperature and she was mild for about 5 days. Her brother the doctor got a test for her which was positive. It seemed to begin to get better, then after another two days got worse. Felt like it moved to her chest. The brother prescribed her antibiotics and after about three more days she began to feel better and the cough tapered off.

So unless she caught it from an independent source and her incubation was very long, it sure seems like it came from the toddler.

Good information! Was the baby tested or presumptive?

However, I would point out her incubation would only have to have been above the median...not nec long.
Sammy5IsAlive
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Sammy5IsAlive »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,


I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.


I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

Many teachers at my school in London would not go back in,


I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.


I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John Dillworth hasn't logged onto the forum in two weeks. I've sent him a PM, hoping that him and his family are fine. As most people here know, he leads an emergency NY City agency, so has been closely involved in that city's fight against the virus.
He is an IT Engineer, keeping city systems up and running, including the 911 call center. He has had to do that with much reduced staff and with glitches related to other services like electrical power being run by reduced staff. Internet connection would also be important for the Mayor and his staff to teleconference and get needed data. And with any operation that big, there would always be equipment failures ...

I think John was getting frustrated at the tone of discussions, including those who characterized the NY response as panic or overreaction. He was advocating that others follow their hard-learned lessons, not criticize them. Just my impression - I don't speak for John D.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: obvert

This one is more telling though in light of re-openings happening and being considered in various places. The counties here will show a more exact number on rollover for the doubling rate, some of the dark ones being more like 1.5-4.5 days rather than 7. I'm going many local mayors and county governments encourage continued distancing and slow, slow opening procedures in some places where the rates of increase are higher.

Alpina county MI for instance is shown to be on pace to double its cases 1.5 days. Walker County in Georgia in 2.5 days. Williams county Ohio is every 3 days. Grayson county KY is every 3.5 days. Finney county Kansas is every 3.5 days. Simpson county in MS is every 4.5 days.

So check the link and source more detail.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html



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That long orange streak in Eastern Arizona appears to coincide with the Hopi Reservation - bad joss if their living conditions are as crowded as most of our Reservations. I would have expected the Phoenix-Mesa area to have greater case density but heat and dryness may have played a role down there. When I last visited there the temperatures where in the high 90s Fº in March!
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Sammy5IsAlive »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
ORIGINAL: Lowpe





I really wonder how that feeling would change if it cost them their careers. Not maliciously, but as a simple consequence of the virus and Govt actions, their careers would have to be reset to beginning...i.e. having to go retrain, re-certify, re-whatever and start back at a starting wage or even have to start a brand new career because of the Gov't classify which careers are safe and which are shut down.


I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

I still don't get you? If their job had gone then they wouldn't need to worry about it being safe or not.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive



I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

I still don't get you? If their job had gone then they wouldn't need to worry about it being safe or not.
I think inherent in Lowpe's hypothetical situation is a point at which the School Board (whomever runs it) says, it's time to come back to work or be laid off with no future consideration of seniority on re-hire.
He is suggesting that if the authorities made the choice that stark, the protests would cease. That sort of use of power may be accepted in some US states, but I don't think it would fly in the US or Canada because the Unions have legal recourse regarding being told to work in unsafe conditions.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

I still don't get you? If their job had gone then they wouldn't need to worry about it being safe or not.
I think inherent in Lowpe's hypothetical situation is a point at which the School Board (whomever runs it) says, it's time to come back to work or be laid off with no future consideration of seniority on re-hire.
He is suggesting that if the authorities made the choice that stark, the protests would cease. That sort of use of power may be accepted in some US states, but I don't think it would fly in the US or Canada because the Unions have legal recourse regarding being told to work in unsafe conditions.

They could also be offered a test for the antibodies to the corona virus. If positive, then they should not have to worry. If negative, they could be offered prophylactic plasma therapy for protection. That dosage would be about 1/20 of the dose for treatment of those seriously ill.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

BBfanboy, I've wondered the same thing - if John D. didn't choose to depart due to the various disagreements here.

I do not recall any meaningful criticism here of actions taken in NYC, however. The tone here has been one of understanding and support for NYC, and any pointed criticism would've been brief and out of character. Ditto for other hot spots, including those in Europe. I don't recall a single instance of an American criticizing actions taken in Italy or Spain or France or UK. Interest and questions, yes. Criticism, no.

Most of the criticism here has been of the US (mainly the president) and the various states that didn't impose statewide mandates. Pointed and prolonged, at times. That's the way it struck me.

That made the situation in the southern states all the more interesting to me. As we've discussed, the US media really hammered on the South about three and four weeks back. A handful here - European and American - picked up on it and pushed it hard. About 2.5 weeks ago, I mentioned that the South didn't, in fact, seem to be suffering disproportionately. One critic suggested we give it another week. Fair enough. That week then passed, and then another 1.5. But we never again heard from him on the topic.

The media too has fallen silent. After portraying the South uniformly negatively for weeks, painting a picture that others picked up on (understandably - especially other countries), the media didn't bother to correct the record: "Hey, it looks like what we predicted didn't come true. Let's take a look and figure out how we got it wrong and misrepresented a region to the rest of the country and world."

The last negative report, of the South as a whole, that a quick Google search showed was about two weeks ago. There will never be any proportionate reporting to correct the record. [:)]
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

For the sake of clarity, there's no feeling on my part, now or ever, that the South somehow did something better. We didn't. We simply got lucky or escaped due to population density/demographic differences. I would guess that some of the best health care in the US is in NYC and the northeast. Arguably the best. It wasn't because of incompetence that the NE has taken the brunt, thus far. But I think it can be posited that there's a decent chance that the South didn't suffer by leaving it to local jurisdictions to decide. In some ways, the locals acted more quickly than the big boys, and that might've made a difference.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive



I assume it would be industrial action through the unions and so whilst they would not be paid (at least up to the summer holidays in mid July) their jobs would be safe.

I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

I still don't get you? If their job had gone then they wouldn't need to worry about it being safe or not.

Sorry, I am never as clear as I would like to be.

Don't think about the teaching, but rather any Career. You work hard thru your life, train, undergo specific training, and climb the ladder or improve the standard of your life for you and your family. It is hard work and takes many years of course. Of course you view it as essential, or why else would you be paid.

Now along comes a disease, Covid, and your Government. By decree your career is labelled unessential and is shutdown. At some point during the extended shutdown, your career evaporates, never to come back.

You are left with the unappealing choices of either starting all over fresh, including starting wage, and or you have to switch careers with the new training etc that involves.

Your standard of living, that of your family, is substantially hurt for the future perhaps forever.

However, at some point, if you acted during the shutdown, perhaps you had been given a chance to save your career or decide to shelter in home and forgo your career.




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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Chickenboy »

How are you defining "The South", Dan?

My base take is that MS, AL, NC, SC, FL have done better than average. Oops, forgot about Arkansas. They're done better than average.

If "The South" includes Texas, then put Texas in a 'much better than average' category.

Georgia, by my reckoning has done just 'OK'. Louisiana was a hot mess, but it's quieted down. Much higher per capita mortality there though.

So, mixed record, but generally better than average.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

I live in Pennsylvania, but my family is from the midwest. Small/medium town midwest. I never ever met a person that grew up in that environment that didn't view a New Yorker without a fair bit of distrust.

There was something about crossing the Mississippi...still they treated them friendly, and probably had a secret hankering to live in the Big Apple more than once in their lives.[:)]
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Sammy5IsAlive »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




I am trying to make a hypothetical assertion...IF the virus and govt action effectively cost them their career (as it certainly has in many other job vocations) would they sing a different tune?

I still don't get you? If their job had gone then they wouldn't need to worry about it being safe or not.

Sorry, I am never as clear as I would like to be.

Don't think about the teaching, but rather any Career. You work hard thru your life, train, undergo specific training, and climb the ladder or improve the standard of your life for you and your family. It is hard work and takes many years of course. Of course you view it as essential, or why else would you be paid.

Now along comes a disease, Covid, and your Government. By decree your career is labelled unessential and is shutdown. At some point during the extended shutdown, your career evaporates, never to come back.

You are left with the unappealing choices of either starting all over fresh, including starting wage, and or you have to switch careers with the new training etc that involves.

Your standard of living, that of your family, is substantially hurt for the future perhaps forever.

However, at some point, if you acted during the shutdown, perhaps you had been given a chance to save your career or decide to shelter in home and forgo your career.





Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples. Along slightly different lines I guess you have some small business owners who haven't left themselves with enough contingency funds to get through the lockdown.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

The discussion several weeks ago included the traditional Southern states except Texas and including Kentucky. Not for any particular reason other than that's what I did. Today, Texans pretty much consider themselves Texans. :)

But if you include Texas, of course, the case is even stronger.

At the time of that discussion, we noted the various disparities, such as Louisiana doing poorly and Mississippi a bit below average. Georgia is above average and the others are mostly well above average. Arkansans lead the way! (I used that saying jokingly a few times).

The gist of the media stories back then was that the South had poor people, poor health care, etc. etc. etc. and was sure to suffer disproportionately. But that didn't happen.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

With respect to Georgia, it has the 8th largest population in the nation (that's hard to believe but it's true). It currently ranks 15th in mortality/million.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples.

One of my college roommates also served as groomsman at my wedding. Good friend still. He worked for a very well known wafer fabrication design software company in silicon valley. 51 years old. Been with this company for 25 years. He and his entire team let go en masse last week. Since nobody is buying anything (including the largest companies in the world), they had no use for sales and service teams. They got a small severance package.

Ageism is rampant in silicon valley. An 'old timer' like him may be eventually replaced. But it won't be by a 51 year old. It'll be by a twenty-something from India most likely. The mature leavening he provided his teams won't be reproduced. He will look for something, but odds that he can get back to where he was are nil. So his career is effectively over in this industry. It's a hard pill to swallow, but it is what it is.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples. Along slightly different lines I guess you have some small business owners who haven't left themselves with enough contingency funds to get through the lockdown.

I read today, that the govt in the US thinks unemployment will peak at 27 million workers, I believe we are officially at 26 million. They believe 40% of the Economy has been destroyed. https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/coronavir ... cials-say/

For those impacted, try almost every small business owner and their employees. Most small business owner's look forward to selling their business at some point (the equity is their retirements) And large companies aren't immune...Neiman Marcus (a very upscale department store) will file for bankruptcy protection any minute.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With respect to Georgia, it has the 8th largest population in the nation (that's hard to believe but it's true). It currently ranks 15th in mortality/million.

Texas is the number 2 population in the nation. Y'all better believe that ****. 30 million of us. We rank 40th in Deaths/M at 22/M (New York is 50x that rate). Even Minnesota, with the Mayo clinic and their solid grounding in infectious disease control has twice our rate. We've done really well, but I can't believe Arkansas is doing better than us (@16/M!?!).
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With respect to Georgia, it has the 8th largest population in the nation (that's hard to believe but it's true). It currently ranks 15th in mortality/million.

Texas is the number 2 population in the nation. Y'all better believe that ****. 30 million of us. We rank 40th in Deaths/M at 22/M (New York is 50x that rate). Even Minnesota, with the Mayo clinic and their solid grounding in infectious disease control has twice our rate. We've done really well, but I can't believe Arkansas is doing better than us (@16/M!?!).

I also believe Texas accounts for 37% of the US Economy, has a separate electrical infrastructure and their high schools teach Texas History to boot![:)]
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