Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[Mike Solli]

Thanks obvert. Still a long way to go through lots of subs with Hiryu. I think I'm too hopeful though. Just one hit of any kind, probably, and she's done.

[ny59giants]

Subs hits needed - An Allied sub is tougher to sink than a Japanese one. I have seen since old WITP days that it usually takes three direct hits to sink an Allied sub. You may get lucky and have one sunk with only two hits, but not very often.

I just hit Trusty in Mallaca Straits with two direct hits and I saw her last turn trying to limp away. I hope my ASW TF and/or my Helens can get the final hit to sink her.

I just got my first three 'super' Etorofu Class ships. [:)] Off to gain some experience in South Pacific.

[crsutton]

Yep, I posted this before but here is my rule of thumb. Small Japanese sub and one good DC hit with some near misses will sink it about 50% of the time. Large Japanese sub and 2 solid DC hits will sink it about 50% of the time (better if there are a lot of near misses). Sometimes a pig boat will eat it but rarely will you ever sink an American fleet boat or British sub with two DC hits. But three solid hits will do them in 90% of the time. Distance from friendly port is a factor-especially with Japanese subs. American fleet boat can limp home from about anywhere with little risk of loss.

Allied DCs get stronger and more accurate as the war progresses so it changes with time.

I had the Nautilus take a long lance right after Pearl Harbor and she survived. Still trying to figure that one out...[&o]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
How the hell do you pay for that with your HI?! I need more!

Yes, you do.

Hence our pointed suggestions about significant expansion of HI at Hong Kong, Canton, Singapore and-yes-Java. Some home island expansion is also meritorious.

If you turn down armaments, turn down merchant shipyards and selectively trim unnecessary aircraft production AND turn up HIs in these select location, you can still be expanding your HI pools into late 1943. I think keeping a comparatively trim trained pilot pool (not general reserve on screen) will keep month-end HI costs tolerably low, further assisting your pools.

I'll post a screenshot or two from my game when I get home this evening.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yep, I posted this before but here is my rule of thumb. Small Japanese sub and one good DC hit with some near misses will sink it about 50% of the time. Large Japanese sub and 2 solid DC hits will sink it about 50% of the time (better if there are a lot of near misses). Sometimes a pig boat will eat it but rarely will you ever sink an American fleet boat or British sub with two DC hits. But three solid hits will do them in 90% of the time. Distance from friendly port is a factor-especially with Japanese subs. American fleet boat can limp home from about anywhere with little risk of loss.

That's my approximate experience as well. I don't 'believe' that I've sunk the Allied sub without it surfacing and being riddled or the 'breaking up sounds heard on sonar' or other similar message after getting a couple or three DCs.

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
How the hell do you pay for that with your HI?! I need more!

Yes, you do.

Hence our pointed suggestions about significant expansion of HI at Hong Kong, Canton, Singapore and-yes-Java. Some home island expansion is also meritorious.

If you turn down armaments, turn down merchant shipyards and selectively trim unnecessary aircraft production AND turn up HIs in these select location, you can still be expanding your HI pools into late 1943. I think keeping a comparatively trim trained pilot pool (not general reserve on screen) will keep month-end HI costs tolerably low, further assisting your pools.

I'll post a screenshot or two from my game when I get home this evening.

Hi Andre', I was wondering do you expand HI on the Korean Peninsula and Peiping and Tientsin just off the Yellow Sea as well. They seem very protected from the Allied 4 engine horde for quite some time?

In my last games against the AI I never expanded HI in the home islands until I had conquered the better part of the SRA do you recommend a slight or more increase early? Keeping in mind all my increases to industry are 5-10 increments so I can keep a watchful eye on everything.

BTW I've found Michealm's work especially used in conjunction with tracker to be very painless in streamlining merchant and naval ship building.



Thanks and good luck nursing the CV home Mike.

[Mike Solli]

Thanks for the good thoughts and info, gentlemen. Turns out that the S sub that hit an Allied mine was hunkering down in the base south of Manila. I got it in a port attack. That's my first confirmed sub kill this game.

I'll plan for the serious expansion of Java's HI after I capture it. I'll probably build up the refinery to match the oil production there then match the HI to the amount of fuel and resources in the area. I seem to think 110 HI or so, but have to check.

[Mike Solli]

2 Jan 42

Sub War

Nothing new to report.

5 Fleet

Nothing new to report.

4 Fleet

I attacked Guam with 2 companies of a NG. No success or real damage on either side. The third company arrived at Saipan today. I'll send it over and try again.

SE Fleet

All those planes flying ASW must be keeping Ted's subs under water. No attacks occurred today. The Wakaba made port and will repair all the damage that she can in 5 days. Then she'll head for Truk and the Home Islands.

The Soryu is coming along well. Her damage is down to 27-36(36)-9(9)-0. 12 days until she can sail for Truk.

The Hiryu's damage hasn't changed. She's 3 hexes from port and swarmed with ASW TFs with her and along her route. I see 4 enemy subs but I know there are more out there.

Mindanao

Closing in on Davao.

Philippines

I finally cleared out Clark Field in a DA. Losses were 705(3) to 3772(610) enemy losses. I'm moving on Bataan to start it all over again.

I noticed a port icon at Batangas and sent a daitai of Nells there. They found the S-36 (the sub that hit a friendly mine) and an xAKL. Let's just say the port icon is gone. [:D]

China

I captured Kweiteh in a DA. Losses were 166(1) to 1566(68) Chinese. The resources there are 30(10) and LI is 15(5). Less supply for the enemy....

Malaya

Troops continue to flow to Johore Bharu for the assault on Singapore. The RAF has ceased to exist so my bombers continue to hit the airfield. Damage is showing so I am preventing any more forts from being built, the main objective.

The CL Tromp was still hanging around Kuantan (for reasons unknown) so I send 4 CA and 4 DD to get her, which they successfully did, taking no damage.

Burma

The invasion force should reach Pegu in the next day or two. The forces further behind continue to plod through the jungle trail....

[Miller]

I'm amazed Hiryu is still alive having had 81 fire rating. In my experience any Jap ship with over 20 fires is a goner...........I had Zuikaku take 3 torps and she ended up with 25 fires at the end of the turn, next turn they went up to 60ish and she went down the day after.[:(]

[Mike Solli]

Yeah, that's amazing. She's not out of the woods yet. Two sub infested hexes (and then Rabaul, which isn't sub infested)....

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SuluSea
Hi Andre', I was wondering do you expand HI on the Korean Peninsula and Peiping and Tientsin just off the Yellow Sea as well. They seem very protected from the Allied 4 engine horde for quite some time?

In my last games against the AI I never expanded HI in the home islands until I had conquered the better part of the SRA do you recommend a slight or more increase early? Keeping in mind all my increases to industry are 5-10 increments so I can keep a watchful eye on everything.

@ Mike, hope you don't mind the aside...this isn't MY AAR, so I hope you don't mind discussion of my production numbers in your space.

@ SuluSea: Here's my HI. I expanded Canton, Hong Kong and Singapore almost immediately after capture or (in the case of Canton) at the beginning of the game. Obviously, the Java bases awaited their turn and were expanded shortly after capture.

Singapore is a no-brainer. Same with HK and Canton for expansion. I'm an advocate of substantially expanding Java HI production as well-balancing that with oil / fuel production is a great way to save on shipment costs back to the HI.

IIRC, I did expand some of the inner Chinese bases before I knew that was a bad idea. It's hard to keep them supplied with fuel.

On occasion, I'll have problems with Tokyo or Osaka HI production because of the amount of ship traffic (and ship-related) fuel usage. I wish I had a more nuanced touch on HI production-since I don't use tracker though, I find that I use more "Kentucky windage" and intuitive feel than anything else. It seems to be working out OK.

[SqzMyLemon]

I've expanded Heavy Industry at Keijo, Port Arthur, Wenchow, Shanghai and a few other Chinese bases and have had no trouble keeping fuel stocked. Perhaps having the Luichow-Changsha rail line in my hands for some time helps, or the fact I captured Sian and Lanchow quite early in the game. I can't post specifics here for obvious reasons, but could post anything anyone would want to know in my AAR.

[jrcar]

IJA Fighters
170 month Tojo
112 a month Oscar IIa (escort and future Kamikaze)
several hundred Frank in research

Agree about expanding HI, and not expanding much else.

We are saving about 3000 HI points a day (not sure if that is enough).Armamments are basically turned off, and engines throttled to needs.

Cheers

Rob

[Mike Solli]

Rob, if I remember correctly, you had ~150k armaments, right? My goal had always been to get it up to ~100k or so then shut it down except for maintenance. I see more planning in the near future. [:D]

Chickenboy, you know you're always welcome with your data. It only helps us all. I never considered Canton. It's on the way with the merchant convoys, so why not. And even better, in my game there is no infrastructure bombing of China by either side. It's perfectly safe. [;)]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: jrcar

We are saving about 3000 HI points a day (not sure if that is enough).Armamments are basically turned off, and engines throttled to needs.

Cheers

Rob

To echo Rob's thoughts. I'm at 90k armaments with only 160 still producing. I'm currently saving about 6200 HI a turn with almost full air and engine production on barring a couple things turned off. As of Jan. 13/43, I have a HI point stockpile of just over 700k in the pool.

[jrcar]

We are in Apr 1943 and have 620k HI in the pool. Armaments at 143k. Naval and Merchants are at 0, we have not expanded either.

[Mike Solli]

Thanks for the info guys. Now back to the war....

3 Jan 42

Sub War

If any of you are following Ted's AAR, you know what happened. For those of you who didn't, two hexes south of Rabaul, the Dutch KXVIII found the Hiryu and put two more torpedoes into her. She went down like a stone. [:(] Ah well, at least I saved the pilots. 54 planes went down with her but that's not really a problem. At some point I will probably buy out the air units but they cost 90 PPs each. At this point I don't really need them.

The I-162 found a large xAK off Cold Bay and put a torpedo into her, heavily damaging her.

5 Fleet

Nothing new to report.

4 Fleet

Nothing new to report.

SE Fleet

With the Soryu and Wakaba safely in the port of Rabaul and the Hiryu succumbing to more sub torpedoes, that chapter is complete. Both the Soryu and Wakaba have repaired all of the flot and engine damage they can and are repairing the sys damage. When that is complete (10 and 3 days respectively), I will move them to Truk and then the Home Islands for complete repairs. My ASW TFs are still scouring the are area south of Rabaul as well as north of Rabaul. Nothing to the north is found. We'll see. KB is still disbanded in port at Rabaul. Soon I need to get them out and away.

Not sure what I'm going to do about PM. I'm thinking a large attack from the SRA with a couple of divisions. I don't think he'll expect that. In the mean time, I continue to bombard PM's airfield. There are just a handful of auxiliary aircraft, no fighters or bombers. I'm going to take Lae soon to have an airfield closer to PM. Eventually, I'll station some IJA bombers to work over PM. I don't want to use Bettys if I can help it.

Mindanao

Nothing new to report.

Philippines

Moving toward Bataan. I'm curious to see what the state of the Allied troops is. We'll see in a few days when my troops arrive there and bombard the place.

China

I'm planning an attack to surround Chengchow and Loyang. Each base has 10 units in it. If I can surround them, I can destroy them. In addition, there are 13 units in the clear to the south. I'm going to attempt to cut them off as well. This will take a bit of time but should be easy to accomplish due to them being in clear territory.

Tobali

The remaining 3 Vildebeests went after a convoy in Tobali and were promptly shot down.

Now I'm working on an airfield there to start working on the Dutch air force with a vengeance. More engineers are enroute to expedite it.

Malaya

Nothing new to report.

Burma

Pegu was taken in a DA destroying the 4 Burma Rifles Bn and taking no losses. The force is now maneuvering to surround Rangoon.

[Cribtop]

Thanks to that darn Papuan Peninsula, PM and Buna can cause all sorts of problems for both sides. See here the RL attempt by Japan.

Unfortunate to lose Hiryu, but honestly between her, Soryu and the DD all being torped the smart money was on only 1 of 3 making Rabaul. Getting 2 of 3 is probably pretty good sledding, sucky as it is.

[PaxMondo]

Ach, sorry to here about the Hiryu ... you got so close ... subs ... hate'm.  (unless they're mine of course [;)])
 
 

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
At some point I will probably buy out the air units but they cost 90 PPs each. At this point I don't really need them.

Remember the sizeable (1 year?) delay involved after you buy these out. You don't want to wait too long if you're going to have them back in the game.