A Japanese Debacle - Sqz (J) vs. fcharton (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

China Feb. 4/42.

I'll go into more detail about my planned operations around Changsha soon.

[SqzMyLemon]

Any questions, feel free to ask.

[SqzMyLemon]

Opps, forgot. Burma Feb. 4/42.

[Encircled]

Still reading don't worry![:)]

[BBfanboy]

I am impressed at how much you have been able to achieve in all those theaters, given the heavy commitment in Australia. Well done!

[Lecivius]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Any questions, feel free to ask.

I have one. At this point, and with the work you need to do in many places, why is Perth still on your to-do list?

[Lowpe]

I agree, I can't tell you how important taking Rangoon is...Burma and Perth seems a bridge too far.

But, a lot depends upon what the Allies do...from that picture it looks like a fight at Rangoon. He has to be shipping in supplies there, so I would look to try and hinder that with something, mines, Iboats, destroyers, planes from Rahaeng.

Get some sweeps going if you can. Then look to interdict the shipping somehow.

In my pickup game, I didn't finish Java until Nov,42 and the Allies ceded Burma except for Rangoon and I never got Port Blair. By the time I got troops there, and surrounded Rangoon I lacked the strength to take the city and the Allies punched thru. Rangoon was a big Allied airbase that gave the Allies a lot of regional muscle out to 20 or so hexes. It would have been so much easier to defend, and not worry about an invasion at Tavoy, if I had those two bases.

In your game, I suspect Magwe is even more important since you have waited on Palembang. However, if you are very frugal with the KB you can get that lost fuel production back so to speak.

Port Blair and Rangoon are must haves! Perth, not at all.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I agree, I can't tell you how important taking Rangoon is...Burma and Perth seems a bridge too far.

But, a lot depends upon what the Allies do...from that picture it looks like a fight at Rangoon. He has to be shipping in supplies there, so I would look to try and hinder that with something, mines, Iboats, destroyers, planes from Rahaeng.

Get some sweeps going if you can. Then look to interdict the shipping somehow.

In my pickup game, I didn't finish Java until Nov,42 and the Allies ceded Burma except for Rangoon and I never got Port Blair. By the time I got troops there, and surrounded Rangoon I lacked the strength to take the city and the Allies punched thru. Rangoon was a big Allied airbase that gave the Allies a lot of regional muscle out to 20 or so hexes. It would have been so much easier to defend, and not worry about an invasion at Tavoy, if I had those two bases.

In your game, I suspect Magwe is even more important since you have waited on Palembang. However, if you are very frugal with the KB you can get that lost fuel production back so to speak.

Port Blair and Rangoon are must haves! Perth, not at all.

On the other hand, it might be possible to suck his attention south to Perth (although maybe he isn't thinking about Australia at all anymore, given Sydney) while you harvest relatively easy VPs from Geraldton and the surrounding area. Even just taking Exmouth would allow you visibility of the west coast of Australia, making it more difficult for him to use the continent as a jumping off point.

[Lowpe]

Exmouth can usually be taken at this point by almost nothing, and I would urge that he does take it.

[SqzMyLemon]

At this stage, I believe Burma is my greatest concern. I've thought about a landing along the coast of India and driving to Ledo, but I shudder at the cost and risk. I've already committed to one fuel intensive tar baby in Australia, I don't think my economy can handle two. I've already provided a gem of an emergency package to the Allies, the last thing I want to allow is a theatre where restricted Indian forces can be used against me as well. There is also a lack of airbases to support such an operation. The main reason not to undergo such an operation is time, or the lack thereof.

The priority, in my opinion, is to close the Burma road and prevent a fortress Rangoon scenario. In all my games as Japan, Burma is always the elephant in the closet. I hate Burma.

Rangoon is well defended, both on the ground and in the air. I haven't encountered any yet, but I suspect this is where I will find the Spitfire Vb's and P-38's deployed. It will be a tall order for my first generation aircraft to gain local air superiority. I don't want a complicated plan for Burma. I mass everything and land at Pegu, isolate and destroy the Allied positions at Moulmein and Rangoon, then drive inland.

Once Palembang is captured, I think Burma now takes priority over Java. I have enough ground forces in the DEI to deal with Ambon, Kendari and Makassar. I should be able to use them to gain a foothold on Java and at least start putting pressure on the Dutch, while my main focus remains getting a handle on Burma. The big question is, can I do Burma without KB. I'd hate to see what Francois could do in the Pacific while KB is away.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

The big question is, can I do Burma without KB.

That depends upon how many A6M's you have to commit to Rangoon. And you will need a lot. The Spit V is basically just an A6M. So, yes it is a good allied fighter, but nothing to be overly concerned about except in the context that it is not a pushover for you.

The Oscar is just so lightly armed until you get the Oscar IV ... but again, you have to use what you have. So, you will also need to commit a lot of Oscar groups.

So, you are likely to be facing:
~75 P38's
AVG
~50 Spit V's

That means you have to be able to commit ~400 A6M/Oscars that are NOT on the KB. I know I don't have that many until Mar '42 ... you may have committed more factories than I do.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

The big question is, can I do Burma without KB.

That depends upon how many A6M's you have to commit to Rangoon. And you will need a lot. The Spit V is basically just an A6M. So, yes it is a good allied fighter, but nothing to be overly concerned about except in the context that it is not a pushover for you.

The Oscar is just so lightly armed until you get the Oscar IV ... but again, you have to use what you have. So, you will also need to commit a lot of Oscar groups.

So, you are likely to be facing:
~75 P38's
AVG
~50 Spit V's

That means you have to be able to commit ~400 A6M/Oscars that are NOT on the KB. I know I don't have that many until Mar '42 ... you may have committed more factories than I do.

I can do half that. [8D]

I'll start to nibble around the edges and see if I can catch some bleeding CAP. The last time I swept Rangoon it did not go well, but then again I swept at less than 20k and suffered the bounce. I'll start teasing and see how strongly Francois reacts, and more importantly, with what.

I have time, because Palembang is first. I also need to redeploy a lot of forces to make a move on Burma anyway.

[SqzMyLemon]

Next turn is away. I've ordered another deliberate attack against Brisbane, but this time all the hex sides are closed. There will be no retreat for the Australians. In hindsight, I'm glad Francois decided to defend Brisbane, because I need to completely eliminate Australian units to somewhat offset the emergency package.

In answer to the question of why I'm still interested in Perth, it's for the same reason. To cause as much destruction to the Australian Army as possible, and at this stage there's a good chance I may find additional Allied forces thrown into the mix. I want to try and draw Francois's attention to Perth. The more I can have him fighting me on his turf, rather than mine, but still at a disadvantage is a good thing. [8D]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

The big question is, can I do Burma without KB.

That depends upon how many A6M's you have to commit to Rangoon. And you will need a lot. The Spit V is basically just an A6M. So, yes it is a good allied fighter, but nothing to be overly concerned about except in the context that it is not a pushover for you.

The Oscar is just so lightly armed until you get the Oscar IV ... but again, you have to use what you have. So, you will also need to commit a lot of Oscar groups.

So, you are likely to be facing:
~75 P38's
AVG
~50 Spit V's

That means you have to be able to commit ~400 A6M/Oscars that are NOT on the KB. I know I don't have that many until Mar '42 ... you may have committed more factories than I do.

That is just so many planes. I think you could do it with 150 fighters in total. Keep in mind that your opponent will have no idea whether your spotted fighters are on CAP or just there at the base.

[Lowpe]

I think you can do Burma for less fighters too.

It is so early yet...

[PaxMondo]

He might. Here's my thoughts:

He hasn't seen any of those allied units I listed above. So, they likely aren't in OZ. His opponent is too good to have them sitting in NA. That means likely they are in India. I would definitely defend Rangoon as an allied player, it is an important point and given I know where a bunch of units are, I know the IJ OOB exactly, and so I know that whatever is coming won't be everything so that I have a reasonable chance to hold for a while, and even if I lose, I should be able to withdraw in an orderly fashion.

Next, the sum of those units are about 225 planes. I know that in sweeping with equal quality planes and pilots I need 2:1 numerical odds to keep my losses down. Sure, I can sweep at 1:1 numbers. Against those planes with 65 exp pilots (certainly the AVG has those and he can easily assemble the rest for those other groups if he chooses), my losses will be very heavy. And I will be losing pilots and he won't.

Can he do it with 150? Yep. I wouldn't though ... pilot losses too high. Meaning, I wouldn't sweep. I'd have to take a different tact in tackling Rangoon. Deception, finesse, something else ...

[SqzMyLemon]

Feb. 6/42:

A quiet turn.

Australia:

KB replenishes sorties at Sydney and is spotted. With most of the east coast of Australia secure now, it's time to see if I can make KB disappear.

The big news is at Brisbane. The second deliberate assault achieves 3:1 odds and is enough to capture the base. The good news is all ten Australian units are destroyed, the bad news is IJA 148th Infantry Rgt. is trashed doing so. However, I only lose four squads so it's a great exchange. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Brisbane (96,160)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 38570 troops, 362 guns, 256 vehicles, Assault Value = 1195

Defending force 14942 troops, 205 guns, 203 vehicles, Assault Value = 389

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 649

Allied adjusted defense: 212

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Brisbane !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1602 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 184 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Allied ground losses:
15298 casualties reported
Squads: 350 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 763 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 92 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 250 (250 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 300 (300 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 10

Assaulting units:
148th Infantry Regiment
4th Division
56th Recon Regiment
21st Division
2nd Engineer Regiment
1st Infantry Regiment
1st Engineer Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
16th Army
2nd Field Artillery Regiment
56th Field Artillery Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Bn /3

Defending units:
29th Australian Brigade
5th LH Motor Regiment
18th LH MG Regiment
11th Australian Brigade
9th LH Motor Regiment
7th Australian Brigade
Brisbane Fortress
Brisbane RAN Base Force
12th LH Cav Regiment
1st RAAF Base Sqdn

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

He might. Here's my thoughts:

He hasn't seen any of those allied units I listed above. So, they likely aren't in OZ. His opponent is too good to have them sitting in NA. That means likely they are in India. I would definitely defend Rangoon as an allied player, it is an important point and given I know where a bunch of units are, I know the IJ OOB exactly, and so I know that whatever is coming won't be everything so that I have a reasonable chance to hold for a while, and even if I lose, I should be able to withdraw in an orderly fashion.

Next, the sum of those units are about 225 planes. I know that in sweeping with equal quality planes and pilots I need 2:1 numerical odds to keep my losses down. Sure, I can sweep at 1:1 numbers. Against those planes with 65 exp pilots (certainly the AVG has those and he can easily assemble the rest for those other groups if he chooses), my losses will be very heavy. And I will be losing pilots and he won't.

Can he do it with 150? Yep. I wouldn't though ... pilot losses too high. Meaning, I wouldn't sweep. I'd have to take a different tact in tackling Rangoon. Deception, finesse, something else ...

Rangoon is showing 70+ fighters as of recon this turn. Not insurmountable, but that still requires a large investment of Japanese fighters to deal with. I'm not at a stage where I want to go toe to toe trading air losses. Current production numbers of the Zero and Oscar are 100 and 150 respectively a month. Neither fighter has proven dominant and avoiding losses is a priority.

The Allied fighters at Rangoon are only a problem if I let them be. I think I can draw them out when my amphibious TF's approach Pegu. I believe my priority should be to CAP my amphibious TF's and once my troops are ashore, ignore the Allied fighters all together if possible. Francois loves to perform ground bombing missions with the Allied air force. To do that he needs sweeps and escorts and there will always be opportunities to set ambushes.

I've played a careful air war to date and the A2A ratio is well in my favour at 175:400. The difference in air loss points is only 110 points though, as FLAK and Ops losses are taking their toll and include mostly multi-engined aircraft.

As much as Rangoon will be a tough air fight, I won't throw away pilots and aircraft subduing the base. That's what the army is for. [:D]

[FeurerKrieg]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

He might. Here's my thoughts:

He hasn't seen any of those allied units I listed above. So, they likely aren't in OZ. His opponent is too good to have them sitting in NA. That means likely they are in India. I would definitely defend Rangoon as an allied player, it is an important point and given I know where a bunch of units are, I know the IJ OOB exactly, and so I know that whatever is coming won't be everything so that I have a reasonable chance to hold for a while, and even if I lose, I should be able to withdraw in an orderly fashion.

Next, the sum of those units are about 225 planes. I know that in sweeping with equal quality planes and pilots I need 2:1 numerical odds to keep my losses down. Sure, I can sweep at 1:1 numbers. Against those planes with 65 exp pilots (certainly the AVG has those and he can easily assemble the rest for those other groups if he chooses), my losses will be very heavy. And I will be losing pilots and he won't.

Can he do it with 150? Yep. I wouldn't though ... pilot losses too high. Meaning, I wouldn't sweep. I'd have to take a different tact in tackling Rangoon. Deception, finesse, something else ...

Rangoon is showing 70+ fighters as of recon this turn. Not insurmountable, but that still requires a large investment of Japanese fighters to deal with. I'm not at a stage where I want to go toe to toe trading air losses. Current production numbers of the Zero and Oscar are 100 and 150 respectively a month. Neither fighter has proven dominant and avoiding losses is a priority.

The Allied fighters at Rangoon are only a problem if I let them be. I think I can draw them out when my amphibious TF's approach Pegu. I believe my priority should be to CAP my amphibious TF's and once my troops are ashore, ignore the Allied fighters all together if possible. Francois loves to perform ground bombing missions with the Allied air force. To do that he needs sweeps and escorts and there will always be opportunities to set ambushes.

I've played a careful air war to date and the A2A ratio is well in my favour at 175:400. The difference in air loss points is only 110 points though, as FLAK and Ops losses are taking their toll and include mostly multi-engined aircraft.

As much as Rangoon will be a tough air fight, I won't throw away pilots and aircraft subduing the base. That's what the army is for. [:D]

As much as Rangoon will be a tough air fight, I won't throw away pilots and aircraft subduing the base. That's what the army is for.

Definitely agree with this. I do my best to avoid fighting in the air whenever possible.