1/7/43 to 1/13/43
Bay of Bengal: As the situation at Singers draws to a close, I've been doing things to tickle Dave's perception that the Allies might be up to something in the Bay of Bengal. While I hadn't gotten confirmation that he had bought in, recent SigInt that CV Kaga was at Balikpapan was helpful. A day or two later, I had a SigInt "heavy signals" hit in the Java Sea, between Balik and Singers. Since KB was confirmed here not long ago (raiding up around Diego Garcia and south of Ceylon), I felt I had actionable reason to believe that KB was in this region. Then, a few days back, a carrier TF and a bunch of combat and troop transport TFs departed Ceylon, heading SE, skirmished with an enemy sub, and got picked up by enemy search aircraft NW of the Andamans. Time to pull the trigger.
Invasion of Tarawa: Only recently has this area begun heating up, as the Allies landed detachments at Abemama and Tabituea. Dave reacted by countervading Abemama, retaking it, and posting a combat TF at Tarawa. He knew my carriers were at Ceylon and that I had some forces, apparently not that strong, in this region. Based upon what I knew, I figure he at most had modest carriers and combat TFs in this region. Moreover, his airfield network is poor (Tarawa just went to level one).
Tarawa invasion force left Los Angelese several weeks back, stopping at Pearl to offload (to recover disruption) and then immediatley reloading. I had put together a force of about eight CVEs and CV Yorktown, which left San Diego for the first time in the war, more than a year after Pearl Harbor! The approach to Tarawa was uneventful, as best I could tell. There were sub interactions north of Pearl, but I didn't think enough to prompt a major reaction by Dave to beef up CenPac.
One CVE TF came in from the Panamal Canal, by way of Tahiti (to refuel). The other CVE TF and Yortown came from Pearl. Two days ago, the merged about 15 hexes SE of Tarawa, without detection.
About 9 hexes SE of Tarawa, the TFs were detected, but I don't think Dave got solid info on York. He knew I had a CVE or more, but that was probably it. Yesterday, his carriers launched a strike against my shipping, then three hexes SE of the island. Due to a mistake on my part, CAP was modest but fortunately so was his strike package at range 8. An xAK took heavy damage and CVE Long Island took light damage. And it still looked like he didn't have good detection on the York TF.
After recovering my sanity (how could I forget to have 70% of my fighters set?), I surmised that Dave was probably under the impression that my force was weak, protected only by a handful of CVEs. I also felt like I had enough information to deduce that his force wasn't much stronger - that most of his carriers were in the Singers theater. So I elected to proceed, adjusting all settings and setting my strike aircraft to range three (emphasizing defense on this opening round).
The results were good thought not spectacular. At a cost of three DDs and perhaps 10 aircraft, Dave lost a DD, probably CA Takao, and 100 naval aircraft.
A scouting landing at Tarawa also showed that the garrison is probably weak enough to take on. So D-Day will be tomorrow.
Bullwinkle often and properly noted that trying for elaborate surprise can be counterproductive. That's especially true later in the war, when the Allies don't need to fritter away time jinking here and there - just go in! But early in the war, when the enemy is stronger or can be at any point, surprise and misdirection can be key. It's not often that a complicated plan two oceans apart dovetail so well.
And here's the thing. I really don't know that Dave doesn't have a strong carrier TF inbound from Kwaj or Truk. I don't know that a sub won't strike York tomorrow. Or that the invasion won't bog down horribly. So the tables may turn spectacularly in the course of a turn. But today was fun.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
