Turn 9. Jan/Feb 1941. Allied #1.
1/23/21, 2:25 PM - [Allied]: <Media omitted>
1/23/21, 2:26 PM - [Allied]: Now for the weather roll.
1/23/21, 2:27 PM - [Allied]: d10=8+1=9.
1/23/21, 2:28 PM - [Allied]: <Media omitted>
1/23/21, 2:28 PM - [Allied]: That was close ... for the Nationalist that is ...
1/23/21, 2:29 PM - [Axis]: Yep
1/23/21, 2:29 PM - [Axis]: Gonna be afk a while, I don't think you need me in short term do you?
1/23/21, 2:31 PM - [Allied]: ok, talk to you later
1/23/21, 2:35 PM - [Allied]: I love MWiF for the ability to make probability calculations of certain things; for example, the probability at the end of your last impulse of getting the turn to end, axis winning the initiative and getting the weather you needed in order to flank the Nationalists and capture an empty Chungking.
1/23/21, 2:36 PM - [Axis]: should be back in about 45
1/23/21, 2:36 PM - [Allied]: see you then. have a good trip/etc.
1/23/21, 2:38 PM - [Allied]: Four things had to happen for the axis to make that a reality: (1) turn ends (80%), (2) allies lose the first roll (35%), (3) allies lose the second roll (45%) and (4) weather in north temperate for JF snow/fine (fine not possible with +1) (60%).
1/23/21, 2:40 PM - [Allied]: Before you rolled for end of turn, the probability of all four of these things occurring was 0.0756, or 7.56%. Even though I knew the turn was likely to end (80% chance), I was still VERY nervous about the initiative.
1/23/21, 2:40 PM - [Allied]: I do like solo play but what I like about multi-player play is the cat and mouse.
1/23/21, 2:41 PM - [Allied]: In solo both sides would have the same knowledge ... in our game I was hoping against hope you had possibly overlooked or forgot the situation in China.
1/23/21, 2:42 PM - [Allied]: I was hoping when I asked about the initiative you'd say if the axis win they'll move second.
1/23/21, 2:43 PM - [Allied]: By the way, I was fully aware of the situation since last turn but maintained OPSEC (i.e., was tight lip) not to tip you off if case you had overlooked the situation.
1/23/21, 2:44 PM - [Allied]: When you gave me the wait and see for the initiative roll I was 99.99% positive that you knew what score.
1/23/21, 2:45 PM - [Allied]: You did get 3 of the 4 things needed (i.e., turn ended, won the first roll and got snow in the north temperate); fortunately for Chaing and his nationalist the allies won the 2nd initiative roll.
1/23/21, 2:46 PM - [Allied]: Well I fear this is more of a postponement than a reprieve for the Nationalist. 😧
1/23/21, 3:06 PM - [Allied]: Turn 9. Jan/Feb 1941. CW - naval, France - naval, China - land, USA - combine, USSR - combine.
