Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
For the moment I'd say that a herd immunity approach certainly wouldn't have resulted in less deaths and at this point the numbers would suggest (in hindsight) that the way to go was what they have done in Germany/S.Korea.
ORIGINAL: obvert
This is a new one. For me anyway. Anyone heard of viruses traveling on polution particles?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... SApp_Other
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
For the moment I'd say that a herd immunity approach certainly wouldn't have resulted in less deaths and at this point the numbers would suggest (in hindsight) that the way to go was what they have done in Germany/S.Korea.
Some pretty decent biomedical statisticians disagree.
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples.
One of my college roommates also served as groomsman at my wedding. Good friend still. He worked for a very well known wafer fabrication design software company in silicon valley. 51 years old. Been with this company for 25 years. He and his entire team let go en masse last week. Since nobody is buying anything (including the largest companies in the world), they had no use for sales and service teams. They got a small severance package.
Ageism is rampant in silicon valley. An 'old timer' like him may be eventually replaced. But it won't be by a 51 year old. It'll be by a twenty-something from India most likely. The mature leavening he provided his teams won't be reproduced. He will look for something, but odds that he can get back to where he was are nil. So his career is effectively over in this industry. It's a hard pill to swallow, but it is what it is.
Mr. Trump said that his order would initially be in effect for 60 days, but that he might extend it “based on economic conditions at the time.”
“We can do that at a little bit different time if we want,” he said of a second executive order that could further restrict immigration.
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“By pausing immigration, we will help put unemployed Americans first in line for jobs as America reopens. So important,” the president said. “It would be wrong and unjust for Americans laid off by the virus to be replaced with new immigrant labor flown in from abroad. We must first take care of the American worker.”
; Julia Child
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Ok that makes much more sense. I'm still not sure which careers have gone permanently so that people can't go back to them once the lockdown has lifted. In terms of the commitment in terms of training etc that would have put in to get going in their career I guess the big one would be airline pilots. Maybe chefs also? Finding it hard to think of other specific examples.
One of my college roommates also served as groomsman at my wedding. Good friend still. He worked for a very well known wafer fabrication design software company in silicon valley. 51 years old. Been with this company for 25 years. He and his entire team let go en masse last week. Since nobody is buying anything (including the largest companies in the world), they had no use for sales and service teams. They got a small severance package.
Ageism is rampant in silicon valley. An 'old timer' like him may be eventually replaced. But it won't be by a 51 year old. It'll be by a twenty-something from India most likely. The mature leavening he provided his teams won't be reproduced. He will look for something, but odds that he can get back to where he was are nil. So his career is effectively over in this industry. It's a hard pill to swallow, but it is what it is.
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
This is an article from a Stanford Biomedical Statistician all the way back in March 30. I think many on the board will find it interesting.
https://www.stress.org/stanford-profess ... oronavirus
; Julia ChildCorrothers said what bothers her most is that her mother was not treated well at the hospital where she worked for 31 years. She hopes that people do not get discouraged from seeking help the way her mother did after being turned away multiple times.
"If people feel symptoms, go to the doctor. You're the only person who knows how you feel," Corrothers said. "If you can't get treated at one hospital, go to another."
When she thinks of her mother, Corrothers said there is one thought that lingers: "This did not have to happen this way."
; Julia Child
; Julia ChildORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I don't think we are quite at that point yet - at least in the UK. Maybe the US economy is taking more of a pasting and needs to take that 'jump into the unknown' sooner rather than later.
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
This is an article from a Stanford Biomedical Statistician all the way back in March 30. I think many on the board will find it interesting.
https://www.stress.org/stanford-profess ... oronavirus
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
For the moment I'd say that a herd immunity approach certainly wouldn't have resulted in less deaths and at this point the numbers would suggest (in hindsight) that the way to go was what they have done in Germany/S.Korea.
Some pretty decent biomedical statisticians disagree.
They might be right over the long term.
Based on what we have now in terms of numbers the UK could either (in a best/worst case scenario where the lockdown has had no effect) be at where we are now on 299 deaths/M, likely to get up to where Spain and Italy are on about 450 deaths/M or we could be where Germany (70), Portugal (86 - with far less economic resources than we have in the UK) are at.
For the time being I know which position I'd rather we be in.
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
This is an article from a Stanford Biomedical Statistician all the way back in March 30. I think many on the board will find it interesting.
https://www.stress.org/stanford-profess ... oronavirus
The full article is here https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/.
I think it is worth pointing out that the date the article was written was 17th March - more than a month ago. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.
The original article is much more nuanced than the stress.org headline (and to a lesser extent the content of their article) suggests.
You can see the jump just by comparing the respective headlines:
Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus
vs
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
Emphasis my own
I think the original article is very interesting and definitely gives food for thought. For me the overarching message is that we don't have the data to know where we are at but if it turns out that they are closer to the Diamond Princess we will have massively over-reacted. The problem is that we don't have the benefit of hindsight to know how representative those results are compared to 'normal' populations and healthcare systems.
From my perspective if there is not enough data to know what to do either way long term - the best thing to do is to be cautious and reduce deaths in the short term till you have more data. Until of course economies start approaching a state of collapse and it is clear that there is no other option than to open things up and take whatever happens in terms of deaths on the chin. I don't think we are quite at that point yet - at least in the UK. Maybe the US economy is taking more of a pasting and needs to take that 'jump into the unknown' sooner rather than later.
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: obvert
This is a new one. For me anyway. Anyone heard of viruses traveling on polution particles?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... SApp_Other
Especially in cooler climes...makes sense to me. Can you actually breath enough in to get it...or does it extend the cough radius so to speak.
ORIGINAL: Lowpe
A New York Times Opinion piece about the virus, lockdown, and New York.
America Shouldn’t Have to Play by New York Rules
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opin ... kdown.html
