The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, BBFanboy. I think my mapmaking skills are better than my playing skills - at least when it comes to the little things, as you'll see shortly.

I am the publisher of a magazine. As such, I do have creative input into what goes into the magazine. But Cliff Johnson, a freelance designer in Atlanta (in case any of you need design work for your books, brochures, pamphlets, guides to the universe, exposes of Miller's illicit love tryst with Lady Gaga, etc.) does the actual design work.

[Canoerebel]

8/21/43

Thin Man: Boy, talk about failures in the details! I was the poster boy this turn. Fortunately, though, none of my little oversights and gaffes resulted in any problems. Thin Man is underway, the Allied TFs are in good proximity, and John is showing some respect for the Allied basses. So everything's good, unless I neglected details for the next turn too.

The day opens with five IJN DDs visiting Wotje and sinking four or five PT Boats.

Next I expect to see and hear the invasion of the enemy dot hex west of Jaluit...only there's no sign of anything. Suddenly I know exactly what happened. When I switched the TF destination to that hex, I forgot to click "Stop Unloading." So my APDs unloading at the dot hex to the north, which I own and which was the original target. Then the APDs vist the IJ dot hex for no beneficial reason, and then retire to Mili, which is good.

Then the movie begins to reveal the location of enemy and friendly TFs as NavSearch gets underway....Wait! What's this? Why aren't my carriers down below Makin? Why are enemy air patrols getting shot down by naval air CAP up there next to Mili? Did I somehow mess up the orders for those TFs too? Apparently so. At the last minute last night, just before sending John the turn, I decided to tweak the course of the carriers a bit closer to Makin. But I must've messed up something. Heck, I must've cancelled the movement orders and failed to give new ones (though I distinctly remember doing so). Anyhow, the carriers stayed right where they were (fortunately, that's a good location, especially given the locations of John's carriers, as I'll describe momentarily).

The final "Ugg" of the day came when Beauforts at Tarawa sortied against Mini KB. P-38Hs tasked with serving as escorts failed to escort, leaving the Beauforts naked, which resulted in 19 getting shot down. (The enemy CAP wasn't particuarly impressive at around 40 fighters, so more's the shame.) But this is one of those "it happens in war" moments, so just a part of the flavor of the game.

Mini KB took position two hexes south of Tabituea. Steroid KB, meanwhile, took a southerly course and ended up two hexes south of Eniwetok. So the two enemy carrier groupings are rougly 23 hexes apart (or it may be 28). The Allied carriers are a hex east of Mili, so that puts John in a little bit of a quandary. I don't think he'll send Mini KB north since he'll conclude my carriers may be moving south. To an extent, then, I think think Mini KB will freeze while Steroid KB steams south or southeast.

So the dance will begin. My carriers will move to a hex between Majoro and Mili. This serves two purposes - to allow the primary mission (unloading of supply and getting the merchants and support vessels where they need to be) while remaining in a good position for a possible carrier clash. I don't expect a clash tomorrow, but it's possible. John will probably take a day or two to figure out that I'm not bound hard anywhere in particular. Then what does he do? Press the issue? Dance on the west side while I dance on the east? And what is the ultimate outcome of such a dance? If I can get supply unloaded, then the dance does benefit Thin Man's first objective.

Some supply unloaded at Maloelap, but that TF will move to Majuro since it's now too far forward. A bunch of supply came ashore at Mili (now up to 36k). Many support vessels arrived at Mili with more to arrive tonight. Three Allied combat TFs (DD and CL/DD) are fully armed at Mili and replenished fuel from merchants. Mili also has roughly 160 LB fighters.

As I mentioned yesterday, Mili is The Alamo for this battle. Lots of Allied ships will disband in port there. Ultimately I can see John electing to send his his heavies (BBs) when he has all his ducks in a row. So I'll have to weigh options and decide whether to leave ships in port or to pull them into the carrier/combat TF hex for protection. I bet that's where this dance is headed.

It looks like Kwaj and Taby are John's two main LBA bases. Right now it doesn't seem that he's using Ocean Nauru, Kusaie or Roi-Namaur to major effect. But he may flood them soon.

Recon now shows that Kwaj and Roi have been heavily reinforced - both well over their limits. SigInt reports a big CD-gun unit at Ponape.

Circus: It remains quiet up here. Recon shows that Attu and Buldir are particularly heavily garrisoned. Amchitka has a stout garrison too. I think Shemya does too. I like this if, and only if, the Allies emerge from any looming carrier battle with carrier parity or superiority. IF (IF) that happens, I'd like nothing more than to have the ability to concentrate on a nest of heavily garrisoned enemy islands, using LBA, combat ships, carriers, mines and subs to (eventually) close off their LOCs and to then reduce the garrisons.

Reinforcements: Alabama is heading to Pearl, where Washington, South Dakota and Indianapolis are finishing repairs. Oklahoma is nearby, waiting to see if there's an opportunity to join Thin Man. Maryland is up in NoPac with three CVEs. As mentioned yesteday, CV Belleau Wood (or am I getting that name wrong?) will arrive soon, along with another CVL and another CVE. So if the Allies can hold their own in the Marshalls, the navy will be augmented nicely when the time comes to move back north.

[Bullwinkle58]

In my game with Lokasenna I have several times faced the dilemma of using carriers to protect the main objective, usually unloading, or using them offensively. I have defaulted to gritting my teeth and honoring the main objective. A couple of times that backfired. It's hard. OTOH, time is your enemy and putting 2-3 CVs in the yards for 5-6 months is not a great bargain right now either.

The MKB, hanging out there alone, might be worth a shot once the unloading is over. It's his left jab unit and if you take it away he becomes much more one-dimensional in 1944. Taking on the main KB right now, when your carrier strength is going to surge in the next months, isn't a priority IMO.

[Canoerebel]

I'd go after Mini KB hard if I thought there was a decent chance of catching it. But John's expecting that and would dance out of the way. Meanwhile, I'd be leaving all those merchants (a vast, vast fleet) a the mercy of KB. So, just as you've said, I'm gritting my teeth and remaining on task.

I've said that supply is job one. The reason is that supply was going to become a problem soon. I want to be able to leave the Marshalls to stand alone for weeks or months. But to do that, I have to tend to critical housekeeping first. If I can unload supply and then load a few units (thus relieving the overstacking issues at Jaluit and one other island), then I am not compelled to remain in the Marshalls. I can return to take Roi and Kwaj another time. I won't take big risks for them right now.

But while all this is going on, the overarching issue is the prospect of a carrier battle. I will accept it (mostly on my terms) if it takes place before I complete the key missions. I think John will accept it (mostly on his terms). If that's the bottom line, I don't think a carrier battle happens. But if John is willing to cross the Marshalls, then it will happen. And if he combines his carriers, he could be willing to do that.

[HansBolter]

You're facing a similar dilemma as Spruance faced at Siapan and Halsey faced at the Philippine Sea.

I love the way this game does that.

I agree that you should stick to covering the main objective forces and look for an opportunity to destroy the mini-KB.

Far less chance for the carnage you might face taking on Steriod KB.

Knock out the Mini-KB with minor loss and with a few months worth of reinforcements you can go brashly looking for the carrier fight with the Steriod KB with assured dominance

[Canoerebel]

I agree, Hans. The way this game works is remarkable. The political-point system, prep, the need to plan and position ships and supply, logistics, stacking restrictions for ground troops and aircraft, the need to upgraded ships and distances traveled to find ports to handle repairs, are remarkable in slowing the pace of the game to something that approximates reality. It also negates the tendency game players have of sending everything to the middle of the map for a decisive battle/game over flow.

Above all, I love accumulating information to make deductions and then to make plans based upon those deductions.

[Canoerebel]

8/22/43

Thin Man: Today the carriers, following a big combat TF, went were they were supposed to go, encountered RO-60, and damaged it. But the big merchant/support/ASW TF that was to rendezvous with it didn't get the memo, for it sailed NE three or four hexes (I KNOW I had that TF set to "Remain," but apparently what I KNOW and what I DID are two different things.)

Steroid KB steamed south from Eniwetok just four hexes, encountered SS Bluefish enroute. She missed a shot at CV Taikaku, but then scored a hit on sister CV Raikaku. No "ammo storage" or other announcements of major damage, so this might be one of those 15 SYS 10 FLT type hits. But John has to either detach it and send it to the yards or it slows down KB. Either is a benefit.

Mini KB moves east, two hexes southeast of Taby. There are 20 hexes between Steroid KB and Mini KB, on a NW/SE axis. The Allied carriers aren't far from that axis, so it's going to be difficult for John to merge the two groups anytime soon. That's very good.

The most important thing is that John is being unusually tentative with his carriers. That's understandable, but it also tells me alot about his mindset.

The merchants did a poor job of unloading overnight. But ACMs are now present at Mili and Maloelap, both of which have mines.

And IJN cruiser/destroyer TF appears to be approaching the dot hex north of Wotje taken by the Allies two days ago. Possibily a FT counterinvasion.

No air strikes to speak of this turn. Well, SBDs from Ailinglaplap did sortie against a CL/DD TF to the west, scoring one hit vs. CL Nagara (bad aiming by the good guys). I think John has some combat TFs inbound, possibly to probe the waters around Jaluit or Mili. So I've disbanded 72 merchants and support ships at Mili. Three CL/DD or DD combat TFs are posted there. And the carriers and the wayward amphib TFs will (hopefully) rendezvous a hex east of Mili tonight.

The dance continues, as you can see. Tomorrow will reveal alot - will John be aggressive with his combat TFs? Will he take steps to unite Steroid and Mini KBs? Will I get any further word on Raikaku? Will Joh get some yips over all the subs in these waters (there are alot, with more on the way; I'm also deploying one north of the Carolines and another near Tokyo in hopes that any damaged ships ultimately retiring to that port might get targeted). I'll know alot more tomorrow and may be able to deduce whether John is committed to being wary and tentative. If so, I can get a bit more proactive with supply and related logistics missions.

[BBfanboy]

I wonder if that big TF you wanted to rendezvous with reacted away because of all the enemy aircraft and ships in the area? Did you set direct/absolute in the routing? It is easy to overlook doing that.

I would not worry about a counterinvasion of that dot hex because John no longer has the invasion bonus and would not have any troops ready to go there. He would suffer losses if he did, for very little actual gain. He does love trying to catch ships unloading troops so I think that is their mission. It also makes me wonder if he wants to use up your sorties by sending scads of small, hard-to-hit ships your way before the big battle?

[Canoerebel]

The dot hex is held by only seven AV, so John can take it even with unprepared troops. The base has good utility, but moreso for me than for him. So he benefits a bit by denying me the use of it. If the sum total of all the elements of Operation Thin Man equals 100, then what becomes of that dot hex is about 0.001 in terms of importance.

Thus far the Allied carrier planes haven't flown a single sortie - except the few SBDs assigned to 10% search (and I'm not sure those missions count as sorties). John usually shows a marked reluctance to trade combat ships for sorties, but let's see what he does.

[BBfanboy]

As I understand it both CAP and search use sorties at a much reduced rate - something like one sortie for every 30 missions. If your search aircraft carry out an attack on a contact, they may use a sortie to cover the bomb dropped.

[Canoerebel]

The north side of Thin Man. South to follow by separate post.

[Canoerebel]

The southern end of the operations.

[Canoerebel]

Many weeks ago, a savvy, veteran player noted that the Marshalls and Gilberts offered no great value from a strategic standpoint. I understood his point, but disagreed since they can be strategically important for a variety of reasons that I listed. But another reason is that any place on the map becomes vital if both sides are willing to fight there. This developing engagement elevates these islands to a significance far greater than their own value.

[Bullwinkle58]

What's the speed differential between MKB and KB? They don't mix well.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Many weeks ago, a savvy, veteran player noted that the Marshalls and Gilberts offered no great value from a strategic standpoint. I understood his point, but disagreed since they can be strategically important for a variety of reasons that I listed. But another reason is that any place on the map becomes vital if both sides are willing to fight there. This developing engagement elevates these islands to a significance far greater than their own value.

They are important enough to keep many readers, and commentators, coming back regularly to follow the struggle for them. Can't get any more important than that.

Seriously, the value of any base is a matter of what someone is willing to commit to have possession. Since you and John are willing to commit so much of your available forces to possessing/denying the Marshalls the value is pretty high by definition.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

What's the speed differential between MKB and KB? They don't mix well.

6 knots usually, it depends on however where he has put the Kaga.

[JohnDillworth]

Many weeks ago, a savvy, veteran player noted that the Marshalls and Gilberts offered no great value from a strategic standpoint. I understood his point, but disagreed since they can be strategically important for a variety of reasons that I listed. But another reason is that any place on the map becomes vital if both sides are willing to fight there. This developing engagement elevates these islands to a significance far greater than their own value.

Battle of Gettysburg was over a small town with a good road network or it was over two guys spoiling for a fight? Same with Guadalcanal.. not so much the locations as "I'm here....what are you going to do about it?"

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Many weeks ago, a savvy, veteran player noted that the Marshalls and Gilberts offered no great value from a strategic standpoint. I understood his point, but disagreed since they can be strategically important for a variety of reasons that I listed. But another reason is that any place on the map becomes vital if both sides are willing to fight there. This developing engagement elevates these islands to a significance far greater than their own value.

Only thing is that I would have waited sixty more days before bringing on a general engagement. "I don't like to go into battle with one boot off." James Longstreet

[Canoerebel]

Yes, Gettysburg and Guadalcanal are great examples.

crustton, I hear you. I could've waited another month for another CV and several CVEs. But I thought this was a good time and place to draw John into an environment that might not be friendly to him.

Thin Man is just getting underway, but on the ledger already:

Japanese Plusses: Downing perhaps as many as 100 aircraft (including many patrols downed); sinking one xAK, sinking about a half-dozen PT boats, and acting swiftly enough to prohibit the Allies from moving on Kwaj and Roi.
Allied Plusses: Sinking two subs, torpedoing CV Raikaku, damaging CL Nagara, downing perhaps 50 aircraft (mostly patrols), sinking three xAK and one SC, delivering some (a bare beginning) of much-needed supply to the Marshalls, mining tow ports, and seeing a situation unfold where, at least temporarily, Mini KB and Steroid KB are not in good positions to unite.

If this dance continues, who does it favor? Luck/fortune/fate could swing things either way - a sub hit on a carrier, etc. But time probably favors the Allies here. My ships are fresh, replenished, flush with fuel, and support ships are in place. Supply ships are in place to deliver supply when the danger lessens a bit. And I think the Allies are better positioned to place subs on likely vectors of egress - John's cripples almost have to retire to Truk. Mine have multiple vectors to clear the Marshalls.

The turn is off. The dance continues.

[Canoerebel]

8/23/43

Thin Man: The dance just became more complicated, with opportunities and perils abounding. John moved both of his carrier groups decisively eastward. He may be seeking a pincer movement, though I'm not sure how effective a pincer movement is when one side is Steroid and the other is Weak. Many times, I see through a glass darkly. There is a temptation to wonder if John has lost his mind. But from experience I know he knows what he's doing. So I'd better beware. But there are opportunities here. And perils.

For the first time in three or four turns, all Allied assets move where I think they're going to move. The main carrier TFs and amphib TFs all converge on the hex east of Mili, with and SC TF doing considerable damage to an IJN sub. Otherwise, this Allied armada isn't molested, but CAP knocks down 5 or 10 search aircraft.

Steroid KB moves 9 hexes NE (as you'll see on the map I'll post in a bit). I don't know if damaged Raikaku is present or not. Mini KB moves 9 hexes east (hey, what's with that? I thought Mini KB would be slower?) and ends up two hexes NW of Baker Island. This appears to be a pincer movement by John, as though he wants to move behind Death Star, between the Marshalls and Hawaii. But is forces are divided, and I just don't think he can create either a hammer and anvil situation or an embargo situation in which the Allied ships are rendered unable to return home (as they have enough fuel and replenishment ability to remain on station for quite some time to come. I'll discuss this more in the map.

OpsReport confirmed another AO sunk in the IO during that surface combat clash in January. John's lost a fair number of these ships, to the point I wonder if refueling presents any real problems for him. Since he's out there steaming around pretty far from home, I assume not. I can't make major decisions on guesswork like that, but I just wonder.

A patrolling 4EB reports hitting CL Nagara, which took a 1,000-pounder near Ailinglaplap yesterday.

No enemy combat TFs "inside" the Marshalls or in close proximity to the west. The TF nearing the dot hex to the north is now sitting atop it. But there was no FT invasion. I bet John's organizing for such.

Very little supply delivered today since most ships are disbanded in port until the coast is somewhat clear and the Allies can offer more sure protection. Some of the lagging TFs and others that departed Pearl belatedly have had to pull back close to Johnston with enemy carriers making such aggressive forward moves.

Troops at San Fran are nearly 100% prepped for Wake Island, but they are restricted, so I won't buy them unless it looks like Wake would take place before Carnival. A lot turns on the outcome of any pending carrier battle. If the Allies prevailed, suddenly lots of opportunities arise, so I want to be able to act on them. With troops prepping for many islands from the Marshalls to Truk, that's the case in CenPac. And an army is prepped to move against all the Japanese islands in the Aleutians. But if the Allies lose a carrier battle, then it's a much different ballgame. I believe the Aleutians are safe from meaningful counterattack, but not so the Marshalls. So, above all, I had better not lose a carrier battle. That's a higher priority at this point in the game than winning one.

Circus: Quiet on the front lines in the north, where there doesn't seem to be a major naval presence right now. John may be sending everything to CenPac seeking decisive battle. Again, fuel consumption is subtle issue. Lots of Allied activity further back as ships and troops are now mostly well-position for Operation Carnival. 5th Indian Division is 100% prepped for Amchitka.

Australia: Several recent SigInt reports that 2nd Tank Div. is inbound to Darwin. Almost certainly John is planning a campaign to retake Tennant Creek. That's a nice base to have, but the only real significance would be that any enemy troops that show up in a base hex are subject to 4EB attacks. Massed LBA against a tank division in the desert sounds good.

1st Marine Div.: The brave boys of Sumatra will reform at San Fran in less than a week. I'll split the unit into three parts and begin rebuilding immediately. It'll have low experience. But I think I'm going to prep it for Eniwetok. With a stacking limit of just 6k, an attack by 125 AV would probably be enough (assuming that the Allies control the sea and can bombard to their hearts desire - a formula that seems to doom any 6k island no matter how many forts and shore guns are present).