The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

8/24/43

You won't believe the craziness of this turn. There are great opportunities, mostly as a result of the carriers' failure to follow orders. But overshadowing the great opportunities is the fact that I don't know if my carrier TFs are going to follow orders. I think they will, but I'm not certain, and now big enemy TFs are all around the Marshalls. There's no room for "this TF will follow orders and go over here, these TFs won't follow orders and will end up over here." Very vexing. Very troubling. Yet very exciting.

Thin Man: The day opened with Gato launching six torps at Kaga and missing. That's three fleet CVs targeted in four turns, with only one hit to show for it (but it does give proof to the positioning of the Allied subs).

Steroid KB retired west to a point two hexes NW of Eniwetok. I think it is out of the action for tomorrow (unless John orders flank speed).

In a course that I would've bet my house against, Mini KB steams 9 hexes NE (!!!) and is 17 hexes east of Tarawa and 19 hexes southwest of Johnston Island. So John chose a course of action I had eliminated as a real possibility. But what in the world is Mini KB doing out by itself far, far into Indian Country and 37 hexes (!!!) from KB?

Now the weirdest thing of all. The Allied carriers remained a hex east of Mili...and show no detection levels at all. I do not recall any enemy search aircraft having an encounter with my CAP in that hex, but I'm going to re-watch the Movie to see. Now, John did catch wind of TF 402 (the big combat TF) near Tarawa and the host of shipping at Tarawa...and a few Judys sortied from Tabituea and were handled by flak. There's a decent chance John thinks my carriers are down there near Tarawa, although the lack of detection probably worries him a bit.

Which way does John send Mini KB now? Does he continue in this pattern, steaming north as though he had a cloaking device and were exempt from attack? I think he does move north, but I have a history of not guessing correctly. If I guess "north" and he moves south, then suddenly my carriers are way separated from my merchant fleet which is hung up out there in dangerous country....

...for the Kongos are inbound, nine hexes west of Tarawa.

I have a host of vulnerable shipping at Tarawa that now has to vacate that island (I won't take a chance on a nuclear bombardment. I think it's best to send them scurrying N or NNE in the general vicinity of Mili, but there are permutations under which they remain separated from my carriers and get isolated by an enemy force.

Immense destruction is possible....though it works both ways. John can savage a big part of an Allied merchant fleet while the Allies are seeking to savage Mini KB.

To non-top it all off, no supply unloaded at Tarawa. Makin did get a bit.

I think I'm sending my carriers E or NE to try to intercept Mini KB. I hate like the dickens to risk a vast merchant fleet. Things are kind of unraveling as I juggle different missions. But with KB over at Eniwetok, I think I must accept this opportunity.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Poodle. I once knew that, but lost it in the clutter of all the numbers I'm juggling.

By the way, two days in a row Mini KB has moved 9 hexes. How's it doing that? It must not consist of CVEs, but rather CVLs?

[Lowpe]

What is TF402's destination hex?

[Canoerebel]

Thin Man south.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What is TF402's destination hex?

TF 402 was set to follow TF 425 (three USN DDs in an ASW TF). 425 has the same setting and was supposed to carry on four more hexes to the SW, ending up a hex NW of the "G" in Gilbert Islands.

There were no reactions or altercations to slow the TFs or to confuse the orders. Things went smoothly other than the carriers declining to move.

[JohnDillworth]

..for the Kongos are inbound, nine hexes west of Tarawa.

can they bombard a night and get about without your air assets getting a shot? Those guys are pretty quick

[Canoerebel]

Thin Man north.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

..for the Kongos are inbound, nine hexes west of Tarawa.

can they bombard a night and get about without your air assets getting a shot? Those guys are pretty quick

I think they can. So aircraft will mostly leave Tarawa for Mili, and ships will mostly leave Tarawa for open Indian Country since my carriers are moving east.

[Bullwinkle58]

I think you have 1-2 days max to deal or not deal with MKB. His fuel situation, etc.

[Canoerebel]

I just re-watched the movie. I don't think John got detection on my carriers. He probably thinks there close to the combat TF east of Makin, but I'm sure not knowing has ratcheted up his own stress level.

So what does he do? Does he retire Mini KB due south in hopes that the Solomons offer the closest refuge from Allied assets? Or does he steam north in blissful ignorance?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

..for the Kongos are inbound, nine hexes west of Tarawa.

can they bombard a night and get about without your air assets getting a shot? Those guys are pretty quick

I think they can. So aircraft will mostly leave Tarawa for Mili, and ships will mostly leave Tarawa for open Indian Country since my carriers are moving east.

7 hexes with no ops points spent and plenty of fuel -- 8 hexes if they are very lucky. 9 hexes is way too iffy. A heavy bomber presence could make the Kongo's approach 3-4 hexes and dally...

Bombardments are such a crap shoot...if it were me there is no way I would send them in from so far. But I can think of other things to do with them.

[JohnDillworth]

After all of this sabre rattling it would be a shame to go home empty handed, but that is just from a guy reading AAR's. right now it looks like McClellan vs. McClellan

[IJV]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/24/43

You won't believe the craziness of this turn.

No argument there. Were I in your position I think I'd be getting greedy and trying to whack the Kongo group on one day and nerd-with-glasses KB (that made me laugh) on the next (or next couple - where are they going, Panama?). I do wonder, though - especially in light of how bombardments have been decisive so far, is taking out a battlecruiser squadron worth [more/as much/less] to you than beating up on the carriers? Seems you could probably interfere a couple of destroyer squadrons and hold them where you think they're going for them to be taken to pieces the next morning...

As far as detection - I think 'extreme overcast' is supposed to be the very worst weather for detection purposes, so your carrier fleet is essentially hidden by a fog bank ie no surprise that they weren't detected.

[Encircled]

I know he has a beefed up IJN in this, but just how powerful can the Mini KB be?

He's acting like someone whose just spotted every single one of your carriers in port at Karachi.

[Miller]

Weird behaviour by John. The only logic I could think of in his mini KB movement would be to draw your CVs away and leave the way clear for the main KB to steam in among your transports, but its position is pretty far away even to make that a possibility at full speed.

In this mod are the Allies still limited to a max strike range of 7 hexes for CV a/c?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Miller

Weird behaviour by John. The only logic I could think of in his mini KB movement would be to draw your CVs away and leave the way clear for the main KB to steam in among your transports, but its position is pretty far away even to make that a possibility at full speed.

In this mod are the Allies still limited to a max strike range of 7 hexes for CV a/c?

What's this? Is this a feature I'm not familiar with? My carriers are mostly carrying Hellcats, Helldivers, and SBD5s. I've set all of these to range 10 (with drop tanks). Is there some feature that restricts maximum range to 7 (or were you just thinking I still had SBD3s, etc.)?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

After all of this sabre rattling it would be a shame to go home empty handed, but that is just from a guy reading AAR's. right now it looks like McClellan vs. McClellan

And I'm posting so much that you guys have every right to skim, bow out, avoid, offer off-the-seat suggestions, etc. It's my job to know when suggestions are coming from informed readers and when they're coming from those skimming or just checking in for the first time. But it's hard to know, sometimes.

[Naskra]

I have no certain knowledge, but I suspect the source of the TF insubordination lies in the follow-the-follower order. 425 slows down to accommodate 402, which in turn slows down for 400 but also speeds up to catch 425. Then 402 remains on station, which is 425's destination, while 400 retires after reaching its destination which might be 425's, or 402's, depending on how it interprets the follow the leader of the leader order. Meanwhile, ASW, Surface Combat, and Air Combat missions, are tempted every which way in the presence of enemy threats.

[jwolf]

Thoughts on the mini KB: maybe he thinks you have transports or oilers behind the carriers (say, halfway to Pearl or something like that) and he hopes to wipe them out while your carriers are focused on the Big KB. If he's really gutsy [8D] he'll order the mini KB all the way around your forces a la JEB Stuart.

[Canoerebel]

My fellow Forumites. I have looked at the map as through a glass darkly. I confess to much uncertainty under unprecedented circumstances. I have made the best decisions possible, but I'm operating on guesswork (which is a level below hunchwork; usually I have really good hunches for John's play).

I have concluded that John is most likely to steam Mini KB south. I am separating my carriers, with the fleet CVs steaming SE to try to intercept. The CVEs will follow, making slower time, but allowing the two to recombine the following turn. The fleet carriers will follow a CL/DD force to provide some surface protection. The BBs will go with the CVEs.

The Separated Fleet at and near Tarawa to retire to Mili under beefed up CAP. TF 402 (Massachusetts and North Carolina) are heading that way too.

This is the weirdest dance ever. It looks awfully awkward. John can leave me looking clumsy and foolish. But I like the course of action and feel most comfortable with it.

Now I just hope my TFs follow orders.