OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

Yes, this does reflect what many of us are thinking.

There are interesting nuggets too - mortality rate at 0.1% to 0.2%? That's what you were talking about on February 26, Chickenboy, when WHO and others were at 3% to 4%.

Isn't 0.1% to 0.2% the seasonal flu mortality rate? Six or eight weeks ago, all the mainstream sources were scoffing at that. It was reflected here, too, though this group had sufficient numbers to offset the inaccuracies with more valid analysis and conclusions.

[:)]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Another Stanford physician's conclusions: Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Don't make the ccure worse than the disease.

Too late for that. It is only natural that the pendulum is going to swing very hard in one direction for a long time.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: obvert

Another avenue for finding new hotspots and more reliably measuring the number of people with Cornavirus. Sewage.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nati ... 019927001/

Last week, county officials sent a sample of raw sewage from the Wilmington Wastewater Treatment plant on 12th Street to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology startup. There, they compared the prevalence of genetic fragments from the virus in fecal matter against local population data and sewage flow rates – all in an effort to estimate how many people may have the virus.

The company's analysis estimated that 15,200 people – three percent of the population north of the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal – had the virus as of April 14. That number is approximately 15 times the laboratory confirmed cases in the county as of the sample date.

That kind of analysis is so rife with speculation and assumptions on what values to assign variables that it likely isn't any more accurate than measuring cosmological distances using the red shifting of light.

Was a speculated margin of error stated?

A creative exercise in how to find ways to spend tax dollar science funding.

Hans, do some research. Until you find it doesn't work, why negate it? It's being used in a number of tests around the world. Researchers in the Netherlands for instance found it in the waste before there was a known case in one town. So it is useful in several ways.

Have a read instead of finding the negative without looking into it.

Here is an article about the jail population stating that the vast majority in jail are infected:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN2270RX

So despite lockdowns, letting criminals go, it is still going to spread. Really, we can't keep illegal drugs out of jail, who are we think we can keep a virus out.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

My main problem with the WHO diagnosis codes is they have 26,000 possible codes plus probably millions of modifiers so you literally have to look everything up. Then there are hundreds of idiosyncratic rules like an "O" code only applies to a pregnant woman not to the baby even though the baby has a problem related to the gestational diabetes. With the ICD-9 codes I had many hundreds of codes committed to memory but they threw those out and now they give the time consuming task to the busiest people in the system or cause the hiring of trained new coders. Cleverly, the WHO charged a royalty fee on the millions of 6 lb coding books published.

With "Attack by Emperor Penguin, second encounter" there is a modifier "with cognitive impairment" or "without cognitive impairment"

Patient? Penguin? Provider?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




I agree, people are simply petrified here in my neck of Pennsylvania. I got a survey from my gym (Planet Fitness) and one of the questions is would sanitizing locker rooms every 15 minutes important to me. In addition to a whole slew of questions regarding the sanitizing everything and density of equipment and limiting people, and greater spacing, etc.

My sister, who needs to go to the gym to fight osteopenia/osteoporosis, complains about how many people don't wipe off machines when they are done with them. I'm talking about before COVID-19, just leaving pools of sweat on benches, handles dripping wet, and so on. Suddenly gyms are going to disinfect locker rooms every 15 minutes? And the air is a huge issue, so they would have to have large air handlers with UV or something to disinfect that. Sounds like a difficult business going forward.

A lot of gyms are notoriously bad on their membership agreements and canceling your membership.

I particularly joined this gym because of it's very lenient membership agreements and have not been disappointed.

Most of the membership is older, at least during the times I go, and I would say about 90 percent wipe down their equipment after use. I have only seen pools of sweat a few times. The staff is there to train, but I always seem them cleaning equipment and areas. To me it never looked unsanitary and the air circulation was strong. So I was happy, and can't wait to return. I miss it in my daily routine and it would be a shame if this is fatal to them.

Here is my 24-hour gym:

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, this does reflect what many of us are thinking.

There are interesting nuggets too - mortality rate at 0.1% to 0.2%? That's what you were talking about on February 26, Chickenboy, when WHO and others were at 3% to 4%.

Isn't 0.1% to 0.2% the seasonal flu mortality rate? Six or eight weeks ago, all the mainstream sources were scoffing at that. It was reflected here, too, though this group had sufficient numbers to offset the inaccuracies with more valid analysis and conclusions.

[:)]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Another Stanford physician's conclusions: Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

I was pointing out yesterday (#5874) that the 3-4% predicted CFR was actually close to the mark for many states. But that's not what most pundits really mean. They're conflating the 'IFR' ('If I get this virus, will I die?') with CFR (RT-PCR positive, clinical signs, +/- additional medical care needed).

The IFR is (unknown / unknowable) and probably 10-20 times less.

I'm pleased that this will only be a 'really bad flu year' in terms of mortality. Could have been worse. I really believe that. What we've done has been necessary. We've gained a much more complete picture of what to expect from this virus.

Now what we have to do (reopen the economy) is necessary.

Some of the things I'm pondering:

1. How will people start responding to sit-down restaurants with staggered seating and servers wearing masks? (@Captbeefheart-how has this been accepted in Korea?)
2. What will become of the cruise ship industry? While none of the majors are domestically flagged, they employ something like 500,000 Americans. How about airlines? They employ about 4 times as many.
3. What happens with nursing homes-by far our most sensitive population?
4. What happens with gymnasiums?
5. What happens with outdoor spectator sports? What happens with indoor spectator sports? Here, I'm talking MLB and NBA for the short term, NFL in the Fall.
6. What happens with religious services?
7. Will people's willingness to take minor public safeguards (e.g., mask wearing, good hand hygiene) 'stick' for 12 months?
8. What does our GDP look like at year's end and how long will it take to undo this terrible bout of unemployment?

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, this does reflect what many of us are thinking.

There are interesting nuggets too - mortality rate at 0.1% to 0.2%? That's what you were talking about on February 26, Chickenboy, when WHO and others were at 3% to 4%.

Isn't 0.1% to 0.2% the seasonal flu mortality rate? Six or eight weeks ago, all the mainstream sources were scoffing at that. It was reflected here, too, though this group had sufficient numbers to offset the inaccuracies with more valid analysis and conclusions.

[:)]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Another Stanford physician's conclusions: Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

As far as I can tell that mortality statistic for the flu comes from the CDC figures. It is calculated by dividing the recorded mortality by estimated symptomatic illnesses.

A comparison between a Covid 19 mortality rate based off that article and the Influenza mortality rate based on the CDC figures is making the assumption that whilst 50% of Covid infections may be asymptomatic there aren't any asymptomatic flu infections.

To make a more meaningful comparison between the two you need data for how many flu infections typically remain asymptomatic. You could then estimate the total numbers of flu infections and get a mortality rate figure that is more comparable to what is being talked about with Covid 19.

All of the evidence 'on the ground' in terms of numbers of deaths suggests that the mortality rate for Covid 19 is significantly worse than that of Influenza - and that is a picture that might potentially become more stark as care home figures start to be included.

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, do you have further thoughts on whether this will have a recurring existence, like Spanish Flu 1919, or whether there is a possibility it might go "poof" like SARS (or was it MERS) some 17 years ago? You discussed this early on in this thread but now you have two months of additional info/time for processing.

(I'm operating on the assumption it will be a recurring battle, but your thoughts would be interesting).

As for sporting events, they'll have to be careful. I'd think, for Major League Baseball, that they might shoot for re-opening by late May, having perhaps a 90-game season with expanded rosters for pitching, and then try to condense the playoffs into September, while it's still warm. They'll have to figure out something with crowds too. Quite a challenge for them.

[fcooke]

I feel for all those who have lost during this thing. That said, I am firmly in the camp that we had an interesting mix of 'official' incompetence and then an over-reaction that will likely cause even more damage. As mentioned by others, other serious health problems have been de-prioritized (and I mean no disrespect to our medical and first responder communities here - they have worked their tails off).

You can already see too much political positioning here in the US. And some of the 'officials' will be falling over themselves to institute new rules telling us how to live/engage/run business. It will likely lead to much higher economic cost overhead with the knock on negative impacts that will incur - across the board. Small biz, charities, individual tax rates, etc. We have already seen the seeds of this.

On data. Data is great when used properly. But we have already, before this event, seen people twist the data to fit their story. At the end of the day, data gets turned into statistics. People can pretty much make stats tell whatever story they want. Many years ago a friend's stepfather wrote a book on the subject. I believe the title was 'Selling Icecubes to Eskimos' I think that says it all.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Some of the things I'm pondering:

1. How will people start responding to sit-down restaurants with staggered seating and servers wearing masks? (@Captbeefheart-how has this been accepted in Korea?)
2. What will become of the cruise ship industry? While none of the majors are domestically flagged, they employ something like 500,000 Americans. How about airlines? They employ about 4 times as many.
3. What happens with nursing homes-by far our most sensitive population?
4. What happens with gymnasiums?
5. What happens with outdoor spectator sports? What happens with indoor spectator sports? Here, I'm talking MLB and NBA for the short term, NFL in the Fall.
6. What happens with religious services?
7. Will people's willingness to take minor public safeguards (e.g., mask wearing, good hand hygiene) 'stick' for 12 months?
8. What does our GDP look like at year's end and how long will it take to undo this terrible bout of unemployment?

Some of the things I'm pondering:

1. A society where those questions are concerning?
2. A society where those are the least of problems?

[MakeeLearn]

Had a CoVid19 confrontation at work with a former employee who came by wanting to visit with patients.

They managed to make it into part of the building before I found out.

After some public conversation and some private "F-bomb" conversation with this person they left.

Now Iam the "Meany" in the eyes of many of the patients. Who cannot comprehend what is really going on.

Even though I agreed with much of what this trespasser had to say, my personal beliefs played no part in my duty to protect others.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00423.html

"Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy"

-------------


Since Cv19 kills men more than women, I now identify as "Anastasia" a Ukrainian peasant woman.
Sorry my hair looks so disheveled. Iam having a bad hair day.

Anastasia your lips and pectorals are horribly swollen!

It's not easy being a peasant.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, this does reflect what many of us are thinking.

There are interesting nuggets too - mortality rate at 0.1% to 0.2%? That's what you were talking about on February 26, Chickenboy, when WHO and others were at 3% to 4%.

Isn't 0.1% to 0.2% the seasonal flu mortality rate? Six or eight weeks ago, all the mainstream sources were scoffing at that. It was reflected here, too, though this group had sufficient numbers to offset the inaccuracies with more valid analysis and conclusions.

[:)]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Well said. It's what we're all thinking, but succinctly summarized.

I was pointing out yesterday (#5874) that the 3-4% predicted CFR was actually close to the mark for many states. But that's not what most pundits really mean. They're conflating the 'IFR' ('If I get this virus, will I die?') with CFR (RT-PCR positive, clinical signs, +/- additional medical care needed).

The IFR is (unknown / unknowable) and probably 10-20 times less.

I'm pleased that this will only be a 'really bad flu year' in terms of mortality. Could have been worse. I really believe that. What we've done has been necessary. We've gained a much more complete picture of what to expect from this virus.

Now what we have to do (reopen the economy) is necessary.

Some of the things I'm pondering:

1. How will people start responding to sit-down restaurants with staggered seating and servers wearing masks? (@Captbeefheart-how has this been accepted in Korea?)
2. What will become of the cruise ship industry? While none of the majors are domestically flagged, they employ something like 500,000 Americans. How about airlines? They employ about 4 times as many.
3. What happens with nursing homes-by far our most sensitive population?
4. What happens with gymnasiums?
5. What happens with outdoor spectator sports? What happens with indoor spectator sports? Here, I'm talking MLB and NBA for the short term, NFL in the Fall.
6. What happens with religious services?
7. Will people's willingness to take minor public safeguards (e.g., mask wearing, good hand hygiene) 'stick' for 12 months?
8. What does our GDP look like at year's end and how long will it take to undo this terrible bout of unemployment?

1. Poorly - I can see this industry being under severe strain for the foreseeable, and it's an industry where margins are always tight.

2. Cruiselines are going to suffer seriously in the short and medium term. Especially seeing as (IIRC) their largest client body is older adults.

3. Limited visitation for the short term, and after that stringent protective measures being the norm for the foreseeable, for both staff, residents and visitors.

4. Strictly enforced limits on capacity. Will be weird with large scale gyms with 10 to 15 people in it, but no other way I can see it working.

5. Behind closed doors for the medium term. I think less for the risk of spread at the event than the congregation and associated travel outwith it (thinking particularly with the UK context of football and the distances fans travel to games).

6. See #5.

7. I think reasonably well, but naturally there will be those who feel exempt. How those cases are handled with determine overall adherence, I would think.

8. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_8E_pmKKcU

[MakeeLearn]

Tyson Foods warns that 'the food supply chain is breaking' as plants close
9 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/ ... li=BBnb7Kz


"Tyson Foods is warning that "millions of pounds of meat" will disappear from the supply chain as the coronavirus pandemic pushes food processing plants to close, leading to product shortages in grocery stores across the country."

[fcooke]

Had some peasant bread the last few days - I think a new addition to our local supermarket. It was pretty darn good. I'm hoping our local farmer's market opens up soon....but we just had a local mayor of a pretty small town (Tuxedo NY I believe), basically close Harriman STATE park by closing road access to it. Seems like a bit of over-reach to me.

I'm going to have at least one of my dogs run in an upcoming election.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

Had some peasant bread the last few days - I think a new addition to our local supermarket. It was pretty darn good. I'm hoping our local farmer's market opens up soon....but we just had a local mayor of a pretty small town (Tuxedo NY I believe), basically close Harriman STATE park by closing road access to it. Seems like a bit of over-reach to me.

I'm going to have at least one of my dogs run in an upcoming election.

Could be a improvement.

My dog figured out how to open the gate to her pen this weekend. Or else a girlfriend is having a laugh by coming over and letting her out.

[geofflambert]

Keep hearing that even when they have enough tests, they're short on swabs to administer them. I was wondering why they can't check all the bars on the waterfront and impress as many as they need?

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Keep hearing that even when they have enough tests, they're short on swabs to administer them. I was wondering why they can't check all the bars on the waterfront and impress as many as they need?

Good idea, they would already be be Alcohol Sanitized.

[geofflambert]

Arrrrrrrrr!

[fcooke]

We have 4 of the little furry things - none bigger than 22 pounds, all rescues with various understanding of their respective histories. The oldest one, and most recent addition to the pack, now weighs in at 14 pounds (given up by a woman moving to a facility that did not allow pets). She is a master at opening the gate leading to the front of the house (inside - in place because she was never really house trained).

The one we have the most history on is about 4 now - she can move any gate with ease. And she is a whopping 13 pounds.

The one we have the least history on was found in Jersey City. A place where large fighting dogs are sadly fought and then abandoned. So this little critter weighs in at 14 pounds as well. She is very territorial. I have no idea how she made it on the streets of Jersey City, but she will eat any worm or insect she can find (wasn't big enough to take out a garbage can)

And then the pack leader, Bailey. Coming up on about ten now. Given up because he was not 'playful' enough. Turns out he had ear infections so bad that he scratched his cheeks into scabs. Once solved he became a really good pack member (he is lead).

I will put any one of them up for office.

If you are a critter lover - there have been many more adoptions during this thing - I just hope they stick and we don't have a bunch of surrenders a few months from now.