Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros]

[kfsgo]

Mar. 9-11

Ticking along. The last few days haven't really been eventful - a one-time night raid on Brisbane hit nothing, an Indian sloop got itself torpedoed off Colombo and...well, there's no 'and', that's about it. Things are spooling up a bit now, however:

- USS Hornet arrives, shoving off for Cape Town immediately. Should arrive just in time for refit; at least it's only a week.

- Indomitable and Hermes (the latter now stuffed full of Fulmars) depart Colombo undetected; will rendezvous with Enterprise, Yorktown, Prince of Wales and hangers-on at Diego Garcia in a few days. 45000t of fuel on AOs are also heading out deep into the Indian Ocean. Best arrival estimate is 10 days; that'll probably be too late to do much useful, but it's good practice given that I have no real experience of pushing carrier TFs around.

- IJA 14th Div is simultaneously reported to be planning to attack and to be heading to Darwin. No surprise - planning for the place was reported weeks ago, and as mentioned the locals have left due to starvation. Landing may be tomorrow or may be next week, but it's coming. Now, I can't fight this directly - the supply chain just won't allow it - so the plan is to assemble the Australian 'armoured division' outside Tennant Creek (most of it is there already, but some stragglers and a US Tank Bn from New Zealand are yet to arrive), and send them out away from the road but still in range of supply from Alice Springs. Where they'll wait. Nice thing about armoured units is that they go just as fast in the desert as they do on plains! If the Japanese try to push on down to Alice, they either come in enough force to blow through that (so at least two divisions, I guess) or they get surrounded and taken to pieces in the middle of nowhere. If they don't...well, then they don't, I guess. 5th Air Force heavy bombers are shifting over to Adelaide to be in the right place to interfere with anything they need to interfere with up here.

- IJA still dawdling in Burma; I've been doing a bit of a survey over the last few days and there are 22,000 Japanese at Rangoon and no more than 1000 anywhere else. If I had a couple more divisions I'd go and take the place back - more to the point, if not for the shady stuff with the Thais I'd probably still hold it! Still, allows lots of building at Shwebo, which should hit 1750t supplies/ITU in a couple more days - depending on exactly how long it takes them to get their act together we may even be able to hold Mandalay, which would be fantastic for the supply situation. Not counting on it, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. The RAF will theoretically raid Toungoo tonight; I don't think I've flown Blenheims in combat since about the 10th of December. Long story short, I used to play World War II Online - the Blenheim, uh, didn't leave a good impression, to the point that I don't even want imaginary people to have to suffer through flying the thing in combat. Still, they should be ok at night. I have 50 B-26s lounging around in Assam, but I'd rather not draw attention to them until necessary.

[kfsgo]

Mar. 12-13

Decided to send Hornet at CT at full speed rather than the 'cruise' setting I've been using for everything else. Apparently this way it takes nine days rather than the better part of three weeks. Wish I'd done that for the others, as I could probably have interfered with...

- Landings at Darwin; IJA 14th Div, fresh from Manchuria and still with the world's most forgetful man in charge of their signals encryption, rolls up on the 12th; I can only hope that they dive deep into the outback immediately. I can't really think of any place on the planet I'd less like to be a Japanese soldier than northern Australia, though I'm sure a portion of that is just the media stereotype of the place. Joke's on me, in the long term; being a geology student in the UK the odds of me spending a decade or so of my life either steaming up here or roasting in Western Australia are, uh...not long.

- Landings at Palembang; two IJA Divs and an IMB blast ashore over the course of an evening. Pointless naval bombardments by Japanese cruisers set fire to and destroy nearly 10% of the oil and refinery complexes while this is going on. No complaints from me. Palembang has not been refining oil since the day the war began, so supplies and fuel (versus oil) on hand are very limited. Decided long ago not to reinforce Palembang for the sake of a longer game, but that doesn't mean I have to make the shipping business any easier...

The IJAAF in Burma conducts its first raid on Shwebo, destroying a roadside curry stand and losing three Sallies to AAA. I'm pretending to be very concerned by this, and have sent a few dozen fighters into observed locations in Burma to test out the counter-reaction, as it were. Meanwhile, the unobserved 250 fighters at Imphal will be doing a bit of flying around the area. Best to get things heating up before an enormous wall of aircraft arrives from the DEI, I think, given that my own enormous wall is already here. Could go good, could go bad...Japanese recon aircraft have been zipping over 'important' places in Burma, Assam and Bengal for a couple of weeks now; unfortunately they haven't yet gotten around to looking at the 'unimportant' places, which is a shame as that's where all the important stuff is.

[kfsgo]

Mar. 14-15

The expected scrap in the air over Shwebo traded a dozen P-40s for half a dozen Oscars. A perfect storm of incompetence (or at least doziness) on my part - I sent the USAAF B-team into Katha, left them at their original 15,000ft altitude and somehow managed to move the one base force with radar up to Warazup to get started on an airfield there! Still, we only lost a couple of pilots, so no real harm done, and there are certainly advantages to getting Saros happy with the Ki-43, as he now is. More usefully, I now know he knows (dizzying, ain't it?) that there are large numbers of fighters over the border, meaning that air raids on Shwebo are more likely to be occasional things. Apparently he's under the impression that I was trying to be sneaky about sending aircraft into Burma rather than letting a few trickle in around the edges, which is also good.

Shwebo is, incidentally, coming along as a supply point - we have L4/L3 AF/forts here, which combined with L5/L3 at Katha and L2/L3 at Myitkyina mean that the supply situation is good for the time being. Will deteriorate once the monsoon hits, of course, but then I'm not sure Saros is very conscious of the weather. The Japanese army is still sitting at Rangoon, waiting for who knows what; there's only a thin screen of troops between Toungoo and Shwebo, with 75av at Mandalay, 19 at Taunggyi, 25 or so at Meiktila and nothing at all at Magwe. If he had any sense he'd get moving up here and get his own supply line sorted out...just don't tell him I said that. 144th Regiment is reported headed for Singapore, and from there undoubtedly to Burma; perhaps he's waiting until 55th Div congeals?

In any case, the ML-KNIL make up for that slight downer today, zapping half a dozen Sallies over Batavia for no loss. More impressive than the raw numbers suggest - only three of our aircraft involved, and one of the Hurricane jockeys got four of the things, which I think makes him the top Allied pilot for the time being. Air losses so far are something like 1075-1400 in our favour at the moment, most of the recent increases resulting from Dutch aircraft being hit on the ground for want of working dispersal sites.

Palembang was occupied without too much drama on the part of the Japanese, no damage beyond what they themselves caused seeming to have been done. Unfortunate, but also fortunate, in a way - I'm not in this for the world's quickest victory, so it should keep things interesting...or make a nice target in about 18 months if everything goes to plan.

The last US ships, a heavy cruiser and half a dozen destroyers, will make Diego Garcia tomorrow, at which point the fleet will move off to the south. Aircraft from the Cocos will start up searches; I have a fairly short window before Merak and Oosthaven are likely to be occupied, with Batavia likely to be made unusable soon as well, which bases are really critical for knowing whether to risk approaching Java or not. Tension rises...

[topeverest]

Can u give me an overview of your strategy and status of key assets? Why are you sending Hornet to India, making a 3-5 month committment over Burma?

Let me suggest you be careful about forward defending Scwhebo. Burma is very vulnerable to empire attack and destruction of its garrison. Akyab / Cox bazaar are much more important to hold.

[kfsgo]

Ok, well the short answer is my 'strategy' isn't, really - at least not in the detail some people get down to. Rather, I want to try something - namely, making the big re-entry to Japan's backyard through Singapore. So, I have an approximate timeline of where I would like to be at what time, but the details are still fuzzy as we're so far out:

- I want to be in Rangoon no later than May 1943;

- I want to be in Singapore by about 6-7 months after that, so hypothetically December 1943;

> From there on out, Borneo, Vietnam, etc. I'm not trying to beat the clock here - if it takes until late 45 till we're in Japan I'm perfectly fine with that.

- At the same time, the Japanese need something to do with themselves outside of Burma, so I will attempt to keep things 'busy' in the South Pacific - two US Divs and hangers-on are already preparing for Noumea, with that operation maybe going ahead about a month before the monsoon breaks in Burma - with movement thereafter up to Port Moresby etc.

If that seems very vague - well, it is what it is. I only have so much free time!

Major assets...

Eastern Fleet (Brit + Australian naval forces) and Pacific Fleet carriers (Enterprise, Yorktown, lots of cruisers and destroyers) are currently at Diego Garcia. They may take a departing shot at the DEI or they may not; fundamentally the reason they're out here is that there's going to be a lot of shipping going into Perth over the next couple of months and I want it safe as houses. Lexington and Saratoga are in refit at Cape Town; Hornet is headed to Cape Town because it's a quick trip from the US, and it's where the rest of the carriers are - they'll depart theatre together, no matter what else happens. Allied carriers have not been seen for several weeks, last being spotted at San Francisco and Tahiti. There are also two US battleships at Cape Town; they arrived with a troop convoy (whoops?) and I'm not really sure yet what to do with them there, if anything.

The main US battleship force (8 ships + Warspite) is dispersed around the Bay Area finishing up repairs; exceptions are West Virginia and California, which are still at Pearl; WV just has a lot of system damage and should be functional in about six or seven weeks, while C isn't really movable yet - it's the only ship really properly heavily damaged in the PH attack. I haven't sent them out to take an active part in the war as the fuel situation isn't really 'there' yet - my tankers have been doing lots of loitering and moving backwards and forwards in response to what may or may not have been Japanese raids.

There is a strong US cruiser squadron (3CA + 5CL) at Tahiti; Saros does know they're here, so they're lurking around the edges of the war zone at the moment rather than doing anything insensible. Most of them do not have radar or much in the way of AA yet, so they'll be heading back to Hawaii in a few weeks.

#

Shwebo is a gamble, yes, but it's surrounded by rivers, has been left alone long enough that supplies are good, and is basically about as defensible as you can get in open terrain. The two Aus Divs will be there in a couple of weeks, as will 7th Indian and Americal in reasonably short order. The Arakan bases have received no attention from anyone so far; BFF Bde (currently retreating that way after being disabled at Moulmein) will end up at Cox's, as will two Indian Divs, once they're done with engineering works further east, and some 6" CD guns; Akyab will have to wait a little longer, unfortunately.

[kfsgo]

Mar. 16

I see Saros has updated his AAR, generating a flurry of responses. Something exciting planned? no, don't tell me

- Eastern Fleet departs DG; unfortunately the force is led by the R-class battleships, so it'll take a while to get anywhere. Intention is to meet AOs west of the Cocos Is and then see what we can see. I mean that literally - the greater difficulty in all this is liable to be spotting targets, with Batavia being bombed on and off.

e: oh yeah, also: I think CL Mauritius is haunted. Bloody thing ate a torpedo on day 1 of the war, went back to Cape Town at single-digit speeds for repairs, and arrived at DG the day before yesterday...where it promptly collided with CA Exeter. Can I have captains shot, somehow?

There's at least a division's worth of Japanese on the outskirts of that city, though it seems to be headed up to Bandung to clear that place out first; the defenders of Batavia have 1050av, L4 forts and have been preparing to defend the place since the day war broke out...so I'm not holding my breath. Depends on what arrives, I guess.

- Photo recon over Kalemyo at last - bit of a bugger, as it's the first time there's been any there and Aus Corps still hasn't set off - I decided to wait for their artillery and engineers to catch up, the latter only having arrived at Dimapur today. So much for stealth! Should probably have sent them over from Ledo, I suppose; it'd take longer, but who'd ever know?

- An oddity; Japanese submarines have been laying mines at Chittagong every day since the 12th, I think it was. The single minesweeping trawler there has pretty much kept the place clear, but...huh?

- Chinese 66th Army is emplaced at Lashio, putting us up to 800av there. I have no idea what's likely to come up here; in theory the Thais might, and there's certainly a fragment of 4th RTA Div sitting on the road up through the Shan States, but so far no more than that. 66th Army was originally meant for Shwebo as well, as a gap-filler, but I think I'll keep it here until I get some data on what the Thais are or aren't going to do.

Elsewhere in China...more nothing. Well, that's not really true - upwards of 200 bombers have been flattening Changsha every day for the past week, but there's nothing I can do about that without making a big aircraft commitment from Burma, which leaves me uninsured there. At least it turns out fixing airfields doesn't cost supply...

[topeverest]

Admiral,

I have not read your opponents forum, so my comments are virgin.

Let me offer a few points that I will not call advice...just thoughts to consider from an adjunct XO. My view isnt necessarily better or worse that yours - only different. there are many ways to skin this cat.

In my humble opinion, allied strategy in 42 is mostly about saving the best mix of bases and naval assets while raiding, inflicting attritional losses on your enemy, AND starting / continuing a favorable large battle of attrition while building up (everything). 42 is not the year many players strike deep into the empire. Those that do take severe risks that should not be taken lightly.

That you dont have a strategy is perhaps painful but not fatal. I sense zealous desire to counterattack, like noumea area. I strongly caution you to do so only having carefully weighing the severe risks of doing so. As far as I can tell, your plan is a recipie with utter disaster as a distinct potential outcome. The KB will take down the allied carriers handily before mid summer 42. even then, the odds are not terribly even until late 42 in a massed KB defense / attack. You should not engage until mid summer unless you can confirm you are not up against the bulk of the KB. Furthermore, Allied naval attack aircraft are very scarce in 42. You need to train naval and torpedo attack hundreds of airframes for 4 months to get many at 70 naval or torpedo attack skill (to use in your amphibious defenses or attacks). The indian ocean is a very limited area to operate the bulk of the allied strike fleets. By doing this, you expose the bulk of the pacific to sweeping empire occupation should the empire not react, or only move in LBA. This is the risk in your current deployment of forces, and it is a large one.

You want a fight that will drag for months and will leverage your building air superiority. Typical places are New Guinea, Australia, and Burma - the last one a guarantee for the allies since it is on Asia mainland.

To your point of going for Singapore, let me offer a few thoughts. First, take my word for this if you dont know already - you cannot stop a naval invasion with airpower. You need major naval assets committed in the defense of amphibious attacks assunming your ground attackers arent underforced. Many allied campaign victories in 42 are of the gotcha category. The empire comes a sailing in unaware that you are setting an ambush because you have little coverage / visible force at a target base. You previously place your fleet and major LBA assets nearby ready to pulse in at the moment he commits. Then you tango and generally win big. Its the midway phenomonon. With your fleets away from where the empire is likely to attack, you cannot do the classic 42 allied strategy. Nor can you protect your island holdings in centpac.

The Empire runs on the booty trail (resourses, oil, fuel, and supply) That is the key to her demise from 43 on. If you can knock out the major ROF centers you will prevent the empire from bringing in most of their major late war naval assets like their carriers. This is fatal to an extended empire effort. With this in mind, your B29's start coming in in April 44, prior to that you have your liberator class of bombers. Up to 44 you have a range to bomb these out of about 24 hexes, growing to 40 hexes with the 29. From Rangoon and Timor, you can use your 29's to destroy the entire LRA / DEI. You dont have to invade that entire theater. Very very important to understand this. You always need to take those two islands or some other proxy. Later in the war 43/44 it is advisable to naval air raid in there if you are behind in destroying the DEI via HB's. Now, the other part of the war is getting close to Japan. there are three paths North (Aleuts to Sakhalin area), CENTPAC (Marshalls / Carolines to Marianas to bonins) and Coastal CHina (New guinea or eastern DEI to Philippines to Luzon to or near Formosa to or near Okinawa.) remember the 40 hex range of the b29. Once you get either Luzon or Marianas or near Kamkatcha penisula in Russia, you dont need to advance any further unless you want to.

Considering this, most empire players will burn their fleets in before giving up any of these "inner ring" assets. From a strategic perspective, only the American navy can open the path to japan, and it is typically not possible to win on VP's without bombing japan, though there are some cases where it can happen.

-------------

So with these things in mind, let me suggest you consider the following strategy.
1. move your american carrier and BB fleet in whole to an ambush location that is a place of interest for Empire in centpac. You need to be 10-20 hexes behind the target bases (1 turn full speed strike distance).
2. build up in Hawaii and to a lesser degree alaska.
3. Begin prepping units for an island chain such as Marshalls etc.
4. Be prepared to executre a major counterattack to Burma from India by late summer. build up the border bases and mass your air forces for the campaign.
5. You may want to plan for an amphibious invasion of rangoon area if feasible in late 42 to coincide with your offensive. Think about it carefully, as it will be risky.
6. raid with surface ships
7. destroy every ROF center (and HI) you can reach (not to break any house rules of course)
7. be patient until 43 when your force mix really begins to weigh the empire down. Then think about which path or paths you will take to Japan.

Remember it is your war to fight, so do what you want to do.

[kfsgo]

Have been thinking about the stuff above - maybe a little too much, heh. I have only vague, mostly Scen. 2 based ideas of what Japan can commit to stuff from here on out, and I still don't have a good read on what's on Java. So...a clockwise think around theatre:

Central and northern Pacific have been quiet as graveyards since the opening stages of the war; a lot of the stuff theoretically headed for NorPac went to India, where it by and large hasn't arrived yet. Hawaii has its 800av garrison; Pearl Harbour has been a sigint target since day one (as has Colombo) but exclusively for units sitting on their arses in Manchuria; 12th Div is reported as prepping for it today, 3rd Manchukuo Cav Bde the day before yesterday, Korea Army HQ the day before that...Colombo similar. Lots of white noise. If I start getting prep reports for Lihue and Lahaina, or Koggalla and Jaffna, I'll worry, but for the moment...nothing. At least Russia won't be getting invaded, I guess? Well...I'd love that.

The line of communication between Pearl Harbor and Tahiti basically have garrisons enough that they can stand against the sort of three-men-in-a-boat stuff that Saros has been doing in the Pacific. The air ferry route for fighters between Xmas and Tahiti should be open in a couple of weeks or so, once the Penrhyn Island airfield opens. From there on the missing links are Eiao off Tonga and Raoul Island off NZ; after that I can fly just about anything in to theatre. Tahiti is the main hub and is hosting a lot of Marines; it should stand against just about anything (having been about the only place in the Pacific to receive reinforcements until not long ago) though the garrison skews very heavily towards support troops. Lots of fuel and supply, though not so much of the former that I feel able to let the USN run about off leash.

I wouldn't do Noumea without carriers local; the monsoon breaking in Burma isn't until the autumn! It may be more sensible to bypass the place and go for Port Moresby and then overland, anyway; the first 'proper' USAAF recon squadron will be arriving in theatre in a few days, so I will be able to define things down here better after they've had a couple of weeks to ferret around. All depends on fighters along the coast, really; the RAAF is still picking itself up to a certain extent. Don't know what the IJA have down here; 2nd Div of course was on Fiji, shedloads of naval base guard units, the couple of solid Rgts involved in Norfolk Island...there's probably about 1200av or so split between New Cal and Fiji, though I'm not sure how. Probably completing the air route across the Pacific will be the first serious op down here, but again until the recon aircraft have had a poke I can't say what that'll take.

Australia is...I dunno. The NE coast is takeable, in theory; I made a big show of garrisoning Townsville and Cairns heavily from the beginning, and except the occasional Mavis over TV there's been no obvious interest in the place. I still own Horn Island, though the garrison was essentially wiped out by aircraft flying from Rabaul. What I don't have here is shipping - there are several dozen AKLs dispersed along the south coast, but no escorts for them and there are dozens of Japanese submarines in the area, so they're just running supplies from Adelaide to southern NZ at the moment. That's a situation that can change depending on where the carriers go from their DEI visit, but it's the current one. Not too concerned about Port Hedland, Exmouth etc as they can be retaken overland if absolutely necessary.

DEI; 1050av at Batavia, 100 in the Cocos Islands and that's really about it at this point. Tjilatjap will likely fall in a few days, Bandung in a few after that, and then there's just Bv and Merak. Troops on Sumatra are beyond resistance at this point; I'll try to get any of them that reach the coast out to the Cocos, but that may not amount to much.

India; Trinco, Koggala and Colombo are held reasonably strongly, with about 600av in total; most of the Dutch troops from nothern Sumatra were lifted out here so they make up a fair proportion of the defenders, notably with some decent CD guns for Koggala. Jaffna is not held heavily and is the risk point for any invasion; no suggestions the Japanese are aware of that, and it's getting a little close to April for them to be doing stuff on a whim, but still...Ceylon is only really useful insofar as I have naval parity in the Indian Ocean; it's a bit exposed otherwise and in that situation I'd rather keep the fleet at Bombay, Aden or Mombasa. Mainland India hosts about 2750-3750av depending on whether you count Aus Corps, currently at Kalemyo on the Burmese border; Americal div will hit Bombay in a couple of days, bringing that up somewhat. Of course, the catch here is that they're not all mobile - lots of tied-down garrisons and base forces. Will be much better in a month, with three Brit Bdes and another fullish-strength Indian Div. There is an American Div and full spectrum of support units at Cape Town but I don't have the politicks to release them, so they're not going anywhere for a while.

Burma holds 1700av on the western axis and 800 on the Chinese border. Think I've covered this bit enough!

China is a trainwreck, which is natural enough. The big offensive towards Xi'an petered out for whatever reason, so the risk is likely in the south; I still haven't seen any of the troops removed from theatre for Luzon back here, but if and when they do I'm sure they'll make an engaging impression on the locals. I feel as though I'm now overconcentrated in the north; about half the Japanese forces up here seem to have departed, and of course they can be wherever they're going in a few days rather than the months it takes me to get anyone out of the place. I'm reasonably sure Changsha is the ultimate target, but the details are still resolving themselves.

#######

The next few weeks and maybe even months are going to be pretty slow; I have 5-6 weeks of field mapping to do out in the middle of nowhere and may be doing further work up in the area, so I'll be away from home a lot. That said...

Mar. 17

RO-33 sinks the trawler at Chittagong. I should probably stop mentioning individual ships; they seem to get blown up whenever I do. Yet another day of submarine mining here, in any case.

Another good day for the ML-KNIL; five more Sallies go down to two Hurricanes over Batavia, while an offensive raid - still using 24 of the old Martins - on Palembang makes it through unbothered and plants 12 bombs on oil wells. I took a gamble on this one - the airfield here has been wrecked for months and I didn't think the Japanese would be able to get it functional by today; that seems to have been correct, as it's still showing 60 runway damage. I don't think Saros is aware of that particular restriction as he's apparently a little bitter about the laziness of the Oscar group based there. Damage inflicted wasn't all that heavy, but it's not nothing.

One fighter group in the Cocos has switched over to P-40s; there may be a non-Dutch unit that uses the airframes, which would probably be a better use of them, but I can't find it if there is.

There are now 10 reported units at Toungoo, up from 1 yesterday; troop count has exploded, while Rangoon's has also increased. Something's about to happen, in any case, and it seems a couple of weeks won't be enough; Aus Corps wouldn't be there for at least (if I'm doing my math right) 16 days, and the Japanese can probably have the place surrounded in 10; I know there are a few tank regiments committed, and Saros has already demonstrated being a big fan of using tanks to take a forward position and railing in everyone else a day later. Dither, dither...I think I will bollocks the Shwebo idea and move everyone up to Katha; this was always the engineering centre for Burma so I can probably support the stuff here with just it and Myitkyina, and it's not hugely harder to get to than Shwebo. Giving away a supply centre hurts, but the airfield construction does mean that I can keep the places closed for longer. Not much of an upside, but...

No air raids in China today, except that the IJAAF in Burma chose to attack troops at Lashio rather than anywhere defended (in the air, that is). They didn't make much of an impression, and three Oscars seem to have gone missing in the process.

There's more, but I'm kinda tired after writing all that. Too much to do...

[topeverest]

KFSGO,

I am beginning to get a bit more familiar with your current force placements. 1000+AV on Java certainly is a fortress DEI strategy variant. You need fighters...lots of fighters to maintain air superiority to keep the empire LBA out and to maintain a few friendly ports of entry / exit. (100+ second generation types and the Aviation Support to fly them) You also need to corral your surface and CV fleets and keep them ready to strike into the DEI - and do it whenever there is an opportunity.

Can you throw the enemy off Java? Can you use your surface fleet to destroy any and all attempts to resupply or reinforce Java by sea. can you provide enough fighter protection to ward off enemy LBA? If the enemy sorties KB, a good amount of their LBA, and half their surface fleet, you will be very, very hard pressed to hold on. IMHO, it would not be possible. At this time in the war, the empire aircraft are vastly superior as are the skill of their pilots - as is their fleet in surface combat.

If on the other hand, you force your enemy to blink, and he pulls back, the first major strategic victory will be in the allied hands.

Fyi, the way I have seen this work is to launch a diversionary attack very early in the game, like the Kurils, Marianas, or Marshalls and bait the empire fleet out of DEI while you dump all the Oz and India forces you can into Java and or Sumatra and mass your fleets. By the time the enemy returns, the battle is one the allies can win. Tactically adept empire players will see through the ruse and typically crush the fortress DEI, generally making you pay a very high cost for something you didnt hold.

But like I said, it can work. BUT - If you cant control the seas or the skies there, you will not previal in the gamble.

[kfsgo]

ORIGINAL: topeverest

KFSGO,

I am beginning to get a bit more familiar with your current force placements. 1000+AV on Java certainly is a fortress DEI strategy variant. You need fighters...lots of fighters to maintain air superiority to keep the empire LBA out and to maintain a few friendly ports of entry / exit. (100+ second generation types and the Aviation Support to fly them) You also need to corral your surface and CV fleets and keep them ready to strike into the DEI - and do it whenever there is an opportunity.

Can you throw the enemy off Java? Can you use your surface fleet to destroy any and all attempts to resupply or reinforce Java by sea. can you provide enough fighter protection to ward off enemy LBA? If the enemy sorties KB, a good amount of their LBA, and half their surface fleet, you will be very, very hard pressed to hold on. IMHO, it would not be possible. At this time in the war, the empire aircraft are vastly superior as are the skill of their pilots - as is their fleet in surface combat.

If on the other hand, you force your enemy to blink, and he pulls back, the first major strategic victory will be in the allied hands.

Fyi, the way I have seen this work is to launch a diversionary attack very early in the game, like the Kurils, Marianas, or Marshalls and bait the empire fleet out of DEI while you dump all the Oz and India forces you can into Java and or Sumatra and mass your fleets. By the time the enemy returns, the battle is one the allies can win. Tactically adept empire players will see through the ruse and typically crush the fortress DEI, generally making you pay a very high cost for something you didnt hold.

But like I said, it can work. BUT - If you cant control the seas or the skies there, you will not previal in the gamble.

Nah, it's not much of a fortress - they're all Dutch apart from a couple of base forces. A 'political' decision I took early on - realistically the KNIL was pretty tied to Java from a logistical point of view, and of course the colonial govt were mostly 'locals' - it would never have been abandoned by the Dutch, even if everyone else buggered off. I'm already playing fast and loose with that idea by removing the navy and the NS forces, so the rest of them will just have to hold as long as they can hold. Probably not very long, but that's life...

[kfsgo]

Mar. 18-20

The Japanese are on the move in China; no prizes for guessing that the target's Changsha and the route is a little torturous. A 15av fragment of a Chinese corps, sent ahead for scouting, was run over by 625av of fascists south of Pingsiang; only the mortars made it back to friendly lines, but there wasn't much there to begin with. Notable constituents of this probe are 60th Div and two tank regiments; this is the first time Japanese armour in China has been used for anything beyond running down the guys up on the plains, I think, so it must be serious! The scouting has bought time for 800av of Chinese to get into position at Pingsiang; ought to be enough, given the terrain, but more are on the way just in case.

Meanwhile, what I think is another Div is moving across country from Kanhsien, aiming to cut the railway line between Kukong and Hengyang; they have some very rough country to cross, which gives me time to decide what to do down here - either evacuate Kukong (which is pretty exposed) and move the guys there to Hengyang, or try to surround the Japanese as they advance. I am leaning towards the former option at the moment (there being just over 1300av in the Kukong area) but I'm not finalising this turn until tomorrow or even Saturday, probably - too much to do at the moment! - so I may change my mind yet.

Mr. Signals says the 1st Ching An Tui Bde (this being in our reality the 'Mongolian Pacification Force', apparently) is garrisoning Shanghai. Not much point having them up in the mountains of Mongolia, I suppose, but it does suggest the extent to which actual Japanese troops have been removed from garrison duty and put on full-time combat duty in China. So much for sensible...

#

A Japanese armoured unit - no idea what, exactly, but it's been playing possum in the open for a couple of weeks now trying unsuccessfully to get itself bombed - has at last moved into Meiktila. The garrison here is a handful of Burmese militia; if they're very lucky they might have a machine-gun mounted on an elephant. Not much of a contest, obviously. The Mandalay garrison has moved out to Lashio, intention being to provide Chinese forces there with some AA and artillery, if in somewhat limited numbers; the Shwebo garrison will move up to Katha when the fascists enter Mandalay.

Presumed Japanese intention is to rail in forces direct from Rangoon to Meiktila or Mandalay; reported troop numbers at Rangoon have continued to bulge, now approaching 40,000 in addition to the 10,000 at Toungoo. I read in one of these threads a couple of days ago - I forget which - that reported troop numbers are usually off by half; that'd put Japanese strength here at...I dunno, maybe 6-8 Divs? I should really take a gander at the Japanese setup at some point because I *still* don't know exactly what they have to throw around.

Photo recon over Chittagong continues. I sent another minesweeping trawler there from Calcutta; it's sweeping some mines as I type. Whether these are new or 'old' I have no idea. 20th? Indian Div will be here tomorrow, having moved down from construction duty.

#

Batavia is being bombed daily by about 150 aircraft; AA is more or less plucking one out of each separate raid, which adds up to 3-4 kills per day. There are 80,000t of supplies here; not enough, but there's life for you. The Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra - mined heavily early in the war and a bit of a graveyard for Japanese submarines - was finally probed by minesweepers and destroyers today, sinking a Dutch AMc more violently than was probably necessary. Lots of shipping seems to be heading this way; no idea where it's all heading, but if I were trying to make the most out of the (at this point perhaps slightly silly) amphibious landing bonus I'd be rushing Cocos Island now rather than later. There are reportedly four Japanese submarines in said hex; probably they've all moved here from Perth, where the dozen or so at the beginning of the month seem to have given way to one. Saros is a big fan of flooding base hexes with submarines - Tahiti was absolutely lousy with them a while back, with I think five or six of them in the hex at one point. He doesn't seem to be very fond of keeping them around after ASW air starts up though, which is at least something.

21st Japanese Div is reported on ships headed Kalidjati, in addition to whatever's here already. Based on the way these signals seem to go that probably means it'll make landfall tomorrow. Gotta try and figure out what's where at some point; might do that Saturday.

ML-KNIL raids on Palembang have done more of a number on the oilfields there than the ground troops did; current status is reportedly 697/792 for oil/refineries, or about 200 and a bit damage for either. We don't have any strategic bombing rules outside of China but I've been trying not to be silly with bombing, so the oil infrastructure elsewhere is essentially intact. The airfield at Palembang is now functional, unfortunately, so the last couple of raids - flown at night - haven't acheived very much.

Enterprise, Yorktown, Indom, Hermes are a considerable distance west of the Cocos and will meet US fast oilers tomorrow or, at the outside, the day after. The opportunity for them to do much good here has passed, I think - with the Straits and Palembang both now open the risks of pushing them in too close are high, especially since it's been a while since I've seen a carrier. How long does it take to go from New Zealand to Java by way of Truk or Rabaul?

#

Australia and the Pacific are, for the most part, spooky quiet. Sub O-16 tagged a freighter on the Darwin-Timor run (no troops - must have been returning). Lots of auxiliary ships reported at Noumea and Suva but naval combat power seems quite limited. An independent sailing with 5000t of supply looks like it'll make it in to Pago Pago tomorrow - none of the ships making this run have been bothered, allowing me to put in an entire infantry regiment through half a dozen single-ship merchant runs. Buggered if I know why - it'd be dead easy to stop as the Japanese control Wallis and Niuoatoputapo, both of which are easily airfieldable and close. Otherwise...nowt.

More tomorrow, I guess - gotta get some beauty sleep.

[kfsgo]

Pacific Accountants Ltd (this isn't an "update" per se - I'm just more likely to remember this stuff if I write it here)

I loaded all 105 turns so far run into the tracker program last night. I say last night - I started it at about 10:30 and it finally finished loading them at 9:30 this morning. Guess that's Java for you...

Anyway, point of it was to try and account the Japanese Inf Divs; so, a tally of what I know, or at least what I think I know:

[DivID]: Last Reported Location / {estimate}

[Imperial Gds]: Malaya, now Burma
[1]: Manchuria
[2]: Fragmented, then Fiji; not reported since. {South Pacific}
[3]: North China
[4]: Luzon, then Sumatra
[6]: North China
[7]: Unknown, but probably Japan
[8]: Manchuria
[9]: Manchuria
[10]: Manchuria
[11]: Manchuria
[12]: Manchuria
[13]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[14]: Manchuria, now Northern Australia
[15]: North China in mid-Feb, now 3 hexes east of Changsha ie Central China
[16]: Luzon; not reported since. {Reserve}
[17]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[18]: Malaya; not reported since. {Burma}
[19]: Korea
[20]: Unknown, but probably Korea
[21]: Luzon, then Sumatra, now Java
[22]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[23]: Manchuria
[24]: Manchuria
[25]: Manchuria
[26]: North China
[27]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[28]: Unknown, but probably Manchuria
[29]: Unknown, but probably Manchuria
[30]: Unknown, but probably Korea
[31]: Fragmented, mostly or entirely in China.
[32]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[33]: Luzon, now Java
[34]: Central China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[35]: North China
[36]: North China
[37]: North China
[38]: HKG, then Luzon; not reported since. {Reserve}
[39]: Central China in late Jan; not reported since. {still recovering from being shot}
[40]: North China
[41]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[42]: Unknown, but probably Japan
[43]: Unknown, but probably Japan
[44]: Unknown, but probably Japan
[46]: Unknown, but probably Japan
[47]: Unknown, but probably Japan
[48]: Luzon; not reported since. {Reserve}
[49]: Unknown, but probably Korea
[51]: Fragmented, in South China.
[52]: Japan, now Java
[53]: Luzon; not reported since. {Reserve}
[54]: Luzon; not reported since. {Reserve}
[55]: Fragmented as of a week ago but probably now complete in Burma
[56]: Unknown, but one regiment involved on Norfolk Island - so, New Caledonia? {South Pacific}
[57]: Manchuria
[58]: Fragmented, Central China
[59]: Fragmented, North China
[60]: Fragmented, Central China
[61]: Unknown, but probably Japan
[68]: Central China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[71]: Manchuria
[110]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}
[116]: North China in mid-Feb; not reported since. {Changsha Assault}

There are of course dozens more, but they're mostly fragmented and I only have so much time. So, if I tally these up and make things fuzzy:

- 7-10 Divs in Japan itself; any departures from here would probably be for China...with Manchuria being closer, why bother?

- 3-5 Divs in Korea; as above.

- 12-15 Divs in Manchuria; this is just the largest Japanese units, of course, not counting smaller ones or the locals. The only major change here from the beginning of the game seems to be 14th Div leaving for Australia.

- 8-12 Divs, having dropped off the map entirely for a month and a half, are probably taking the long road to Changsha; adding in the smaller units it'd probably be more like 12-16, but it's a biggie either way. Recon over the next week or two should clear this up one way or the other. No guarantees; they could also be opening the Shanghai-Singapore "railway" or just resting away from the front lines, but that doesn't seem to fit with Saros so far. If they ARE behind the lines up north I haven't been able to find them, at any rate.

This does mean I should probably start getting a little weaselly in North China; the Japanese here are a holding force, rather than an assault force. I guess I've known that for a couple of weeks, really, just haven't felt real great about it.

- 3 Divs on Java; I expect the second of the two that landed at Palembang will now move to Java as the first one has.

- Northern Australia could probably have been held by the forces at Darwin until further Japanese reinforcements - shame about the supply thing.

- 3 Divs "definitely" in Burma; given that I'm expecting about twice that the 'reserve' is probably short a couple.

- 3-5 Divs free to be thrown around, effectively all of them lately on Luzon. Ceylon? Chittagong? Port Hedland? Aleutians? Midway? *snrk*
A month is a long time; I would have thought I'd have seen some of them by now if they're not off on an adventure somewhere. Guess we'll see...

e: I bet Port Moresby would be a real hoot right now...

[kfsgo]

Mar. 21

I missed one important unit off the list above - 69th Div was at Wuchang in mid-Feb; the reason it's important? It's today reported as planning to attack...Hengyang. ie, Changsha through the back (or, rather, side) door. God, this backwards and forwards crap in China is irritating.

Elsewhere not much happened. One of the big Japanese destroyers managed to hit two (!) mines at Merak while accompanying minesweepers, but I think that's the only sinking for today. Heavy radio transmissions at Singapore; I've borrowed some Catalinas from Australia to do a few recon flights over the next couple of days.

[kfsgo]

Mar. 22-24

Busy few days, with lots to think about, Saros' claims that they're "slow" notwithstanding.

Bombing of Batavia continues. Japanese forces seem to be eternally advancing on the city, but took until today to enter it; we'll see what they've brought (beyond the known Divs) tomorrow.

Numerous Singapore overflights; over the three days, reports are somewhere in the region of 125-150 ships at anchor, maybe 40 more at sea, 19 fighters...58 LCUs. I don't know what's normal for this point in time, but I'm pretty sure that ain't; guess the Indian Ocean's going to be getting warm. "War in South East Asia". I get it. Shipping reports vary, but a couple of dozen destroyers, lots of AP, lots of submarines. 11th Tank Regiment - lately of Kwantung Army - is reported heading for Singapore; on past performance that probably means it'll make landfall there tomorrow.

I am evacuating shipping from Colombo as a precaution; nothing too valuable there, just some old cruisers and destroyers, but it's definitely feeling exposed right now. Merchants will probably head to Bombay; warships will remain at Calicut.

Heavy radio transmissions in a couple of places off Borneo. There haven't been any of these for a while - just the occasional buzz somewhere irrelevant. More naval bombardments for Batavia?

Recon overflights of Diamond Harbor and Calcutta by naval bombers the last two days in addition to Chittagong. At least the mines seem to have stopped coming. Enough of the SEAC air forces are local to take care of any raids, I think. Interestingly a Jake was reported over a couple of merchants in the river basin; in tandem, I-7 was identified off Calcutta. Are Japanese submarines now carrying these? Can't be sure - the submarine is within Glen range - so it's either a misidentification or there are surface ships out there, I guess.

Burma Army is vacating Shwebo for points north, the Japanese having railed up to Myitkyina as expected. I wonder where they got the trains from? IJAAF fighters have been sweeping Shwebo (at 26000ft - conveniently just 1000 over our 'limit') but no bombing raids so far. I expect there will be one tomorrow, now that the LCUs are moving.

Burma Frontier Force Bde has reached Akyab after a *very* long march overland from Rangoon; it's actually managed to get back up to nearly 50av from 0 in the process. I will probably disband it to fill Burma Div with Burmese squads, however, as I suspect that's a better use of them.

China Expeditionary Army is also reported planning for Hengyang; might be a coincidence, but I doubt it. The Pingsiang force engaged about 900av of Japanese, with three tank Rgts and two armoured car Cos; resistance collapsed after two days, though casualties were minimal - a tribute to the commanders. Unfortunately they retreated east; that leaves the way onto the plains open. Chinese reinforcements including an AT Rgt missed the battle by a day. Problem here was supply - I'd been trying to get some to Pingsiang for weeks, but no dice - the previous garrison had actually abandoned a few weeks ago as they were starving to death! There's not much anywhere else - unsure if this is a solvable problem.

Nothing in the pacific except submarines; Glens fly over Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Auckland, Tahiti, Pago, SF, Colombo etc daily more or less without exception. Apparently 15 of these have been shot down over the entire war so far; not a bad performance from them, considering the hundreds of missions flown, but irritating. Some relief for Tahiti should be forthcoming as DD Monssen worked over I-29 very enthusiastially, but the dozens of submarines around Colombo made six or seven attacks on destroyers hunting them yesterday. No damage to anyone, which isn't very encouraging.

Luzon is still the only island in the Phillipines to have any Japanese on it. How crazy is that? I'm considering sending a few freighters to Mindanao; it'd be a one-way trip, with a very high probability of being sunk around the Marianas if not earlier, but cripes...

Fragments of 1st Raiding Rgt seize Terapo and Rossel Island on consecutive days. I guess using para fragments is ok when there are no defenders?

Onward we go...

[topeverest]

KFSGO,

So have you developed a revised strategy, or do you march to the same drum?

What could 120 ships in Zingers mean other than columbo targeted? Why not sortie those ships at Columbo and move them either to eastern DEI / prepare ambush or Oz?

[kfsgo]

So, here's a question: does the Japanese amphibious bonus expire on the 1st of April, 7th of April, 1st of May? I can't find a very solid answer beyond "four months" anywhere.

The Colombo squadron are mostly Dutch - anything they ambush is more liable to sink them right back, I suspect! Most of the really combat-capable ships are with Eastern Fleet, which is currently off way west of Sumatra. I considered hitting Singapore with the carriers, but I don't know where their opposite numbers are - they could be those transmissions in the Java Sea for all I know, which collision (bearing in mind I effectively have about 2.6 large carriers at sea right now) wouldn't end well. I'm not entirely sure they could even stand up to the local Japanese bombers; I've seen Singapore, but not Johore, Malacca, Sabang, Malacca etc. Lexington and Saratoga will be out in four days; they'll take Hornet and Formidable wherever they go, at which point I can start to think about getting frisky.

Other than Colombo? I dunno - anywhere between Bombay and Perth with a port, I guess. If I had to put money on anywhere I'd say Chittagong (and did, to myself, quietly) - it's had lots of attention for a while now and it's the 'obvious' choice in that the approach is safe (Port Blair has received multiple construction units since its capture - no prizes for guessing what's there), there's an easy retreat into the Arakan and, hey, there's that big army in Burma to try and cut off, but I don't know. With that in mind the Shwebo force is actually headed back to India - hence 'points north' rather than 'points east'. Fortunately the trek from Shwebo is the least worst of the available choices.

"Strategy". Right. I figure I'll give whatever's going to happen out of Singapore another few weeks to happen; I don't have the PPs to do much in the interim anyway, so what will come of it will come of it. Then, we'll see - I want to get my air link between Hawaii and New Zealand back, which preparations are being made already; I could do with a carrier or two for that, though can probably get some of the outer islands without; after making that show of nibbling around the edges I like the idea of going at New Guinea direct, given what I suspect is a minimal garrison, but I'd prefer not to give away that I'm looking earlier than necessary. I have an unoccupied submarine coming out of the shipyard in Brisbane in a couple of days, so perhaps that can go up and have a look around New Guinea.

[topeverest]

The amphib bonus expires at end of March, but it not a material factor in early empire victories, other than to allow more troops to land on a given turn. The outcomes will very rarely change. I would not base any decision making on the existance or expiration of that.

Regarding Columbo squadron, remember that commanders make the ships. Go in and replace the commanders on the key ships for best available and always choose a solid surface combat TF commander. The key to raiding is speed and target. find a target blitz in at full speed and retire out the same...before the enemy can mass his force against you. Hide is small ports, move around a lot and stay 10-20 hexes off the MLR. Trust me, it works.

Regarding using your combined CV's at Zingers. Those kind of opportunities come by infrequently in the game. The risk of large enemy CV's in the area is small, unless you have already seen them there. You could sink 20 or even 40 enemy ships if you completely commit. The pluses, you can Full Speed in and strike with what I would expect to be sudden and severe enemy loss, assuming you strike from near Padang and mass your localized fighters for a combo sweep of zingers and protect the CV's. Then pulse out the next turn. You need to underrstand how many fighters the enemy has and make sure you have enough escorts. An combined maximumLBA strike at the same time would be optimal. It also would be good if you could bombard the base the night before to limit CAP. Unfortunately, you dont have american TBD's as they have a effective range of 4unless you hold Singkep or Bengalis. If you do, pulse in the planes the day before and launch a joint strike fighter escort per base. Be sure you use at least one. Then get out of dodge the next turn. The minus. Once you strike, you have notified the enemy where your CV's are. It would take 4 weeks to get back to Pearl, and in that time, he may decide to take real estate, assuming he doesnt commit his CV's. depends on your opponents point of view. He may push the KB down there to hold and secure Palembang.

If your enemy is contemplating invading india, it is a very difficult thing to accomplish, be sure to rest / train all ground units with HQ's / adequate support and replace your major INF units. trust me that if you execute said CV raid above, the enemy is not going to be in a hurry to push naval forces in the bay of bengal. India is a tough gamble for the Empire. Train pilots every day, and train ground forces. Build up backup port / airfields if Columbo falls say Cochin and Madras. Keep Catalina active and be prepared to evacuate COlumbo of naval forces, but dont do it unless you verify a threat larger than you can reasonably handle.

If you are planning Port Moresby / New guinea, it is a common area to fight. Keep in mind that once you join forces, you need to have already commited the necessary combined force to make a go of it. This involves mulitple divisions, ENG units, hundreds of ships of all types, hundreds of aircraft, and hundreds of thousands or even millions of points of supply and fuel. The enemy isnt going to give it to you, and you wont take it handily. You also need to prioritize your hub and spoke bases. New Caledonia, Fiji, American Samoa, Chirstmas Island, etc. Choose islands that can have unlimited troops and unlimited supply stockpiles.

Regarding the broader strategy thoughts, even if you dont believe it, you are executing a fortress palembang strategy. As far as the other parts of the war, they are secondary at this point. trust me when I tell you Fiji is very very important. The air bridge is not as vital at building a couple hub and spoke bases that will be future launching points for offensives. Fiji is strategically very important if you can hold it. By that I mean several divisions across several islands and several level 9 airfields.

It is very early in the game. Dont try to win the war now, if you do try, it is likely to be your undoing. And DONT fight the KB if it is all 6 (or more CV's). Just run away, unless you have at least 100 experienced LBA fighters that can lend to your CAP. even that may not be enough.

[kfsgo]

Mar. 25

I dunno...I'm feeling pretty good about being a big man-sized baby right now:



(Singapore)

Cost a few Catalinas to get, but I guess that's what they're for. Two squadrons with PBY-5As have gone over to Mindanao; since the Glorious Empire is apparently not willing to actually invade the place, I might as well have a bit of fun with the local merchants.

Saros can't be too bothered by my seeing the carriers; this is the fourth consecutive day of Catalina overflights of the place. So, invasion - or just a raid? Wouldn't find much to sink, but he doesn't know that. Choices, choices...in the meantime a merchant convoy that was about to unload at Tahiti will continue to New Zealand; the fuel will be particularly handy, I'd bet.

More reinforcements signalled for Singapore; today it's a large engineer regiment, lately of Canton.

Carriers are headed back to Cape Town; they'll be there in four days, which is to say that they can be back in eight if needed.

I-162 failed to torpedo a 10kt freighter unloading cargo at the Cocos Islands. That takes some doing; never mind all this 'tagging a moving carrier doing 50' business.

51st Naval Garrison, last noted invading Port Moresby, is prepping for Rockhampton, apparently. Seems a little optimistic, between the cavalry brigade there and the three infantry divisions within a few days' march.

e: I do wonder whether it might be easier to invade Western Australia - bit isolated, but the garrison barely exists, and those carriers could cover a Cocos landing en-route. Batavia is only a ground threat - the airfield is closed and will probably remain so, so the Japanese can get out of the Sunda Straits easily enough. Would seem to square with any landing in Queensland - try to draw everything east, then roll up the west.

[topeverest]

I'd agree he almost ceretainly knows you are there and he is daring you to attack, which means he probably has zingers pretty covered. The good news is that he is probably responding to your moves. You are dictating his strategy. That is a good thing. If it were me, and I had any BB's nearby, I would kamikaze them in if you could get there overnight. You get way more BB's, but he doesnt...in anything.

Anyway...your tail is probably wagging his dog at this point. This is a good lesson about your opponent. He is reactive and easily distracted. Deception will be a great value against him. You already are turning the tide even if you dont know it. Put that in your pocket for later. You should plan a summer operation that includes distraction at a point elsewhere in the empire. Like fake PM attack, and do Marshalls or Marianas in massive strength.

Feel good, because you have made a huge leap forward in your knowedge on how your opponent will fight...

[kfsgo]

Mar. 26-27

I have way too much to do at the moment.

The 26th wasn't too interesting - Onderzeeboot 21 managed to torpedo a loaded tanker off Shanghai, which is always nice, and S-3something got a freighter off Batavia. Otherwise...well, stuff may have happened, but I can't remember it.

The 27th, ie today, was also boring. Except, not. I peer into the fog; two separate small-ish convoys are reported moving northwest up the Straits of Malacca by submarines; a third unit is reported buzzing the airwaves like an angry hornet halfway between Singapore and Medan. No attacks by the submarines, but the water's shallow enough that that may be for the best.

The Japanese carriers are reportedly not at Singapore any more. I'm sure that's a coincidence. Overflights of Chittagong resume. Those few ships still in the Bay of Bengal should round Ceylon over the next couple of days; time will tell whether they're too late to dodge what must at least be a raid on the way. If I had a time machine I'd send a scrubby little freighter and a base force to one of the Nicobars; Catalinas from Koggala can't quite see far enough to inspire much confidence. LCU count at Singapore today is 62, which is to say that reinforcements continue and any invasions haven't left yet. What passes for a 'proper' naval strike capability in the Indian Ocean - 13 A-20, 26 A-24, 21 Swordfish - is at Madras; from there they can go to Cochin, Colombo, Trincomalee, Bombay, Chittagong or nowhere as required to meet the raid. 55 B-17 and 13 B-25 - I left these guys training naval rather than ground attack for some reason, which accident now seems rather fortunate - are at Calcutta; I'll introduce them if I have to, but they can make it wherever in one hop, so I'd rather keep them in working order for now. Fighters plentiful enough, in theory. The thought occurs that I should really have dismounted the Pacific Fleet's carrier aircraft before they left for Cape Town...Lexington is out of shipyard tomorrow, Saratoga the day after. I could always send them on-map briefly and fly off. We'll see - not like it's a long trip.

The KNIL did good today. Three DMS lit up by coastal guns - for some reason I didn't get a live report of this, but the 'battle' showed up in the CR later - and an assault on Batavia was held off at about 360/90av in losses, forts remaining at 4. Since starting AVs were 1275 against 1050, that reduces the risk of the place falling to direct attack by these forces a little! At this point we've to see what Saros learned from his 'bulldozer' approach to Luzon; sensible thing to do would be to contain and move on...

Two tank regiments out in the open were bombed in Burma, having charged ahead of the main force leaving Shwebo; Saros was very smug in pointing this out, clearly very happy about all the tanks he blew up. Unfortunately, as they'd actually made their charge yesterday, they were in combat mode and not moving, which is to say that they're fine.

The Pacific is...pacific.