Under the Red Banner: Q-Ball (R) v Baelfiin (Axis)

[Wuffer]

That must be quite a double shocking for him.
First the winterexperience of course, but than Stavka's awakening too: You are so much better in the attack! Like a hungry ice bear.

Looks like he has lost coherance, after giving up the initiative. At least it appears so. At first, I was thinking about some hidden masterplan, try to evelope total fronts of you sometime during the end of winter, maybe even attacking in blizzard?, but I'm not sure any longer. Did he really has a written plan? The surprise attack into the north before blizzard together with his desolate start in AGC was much under B's niveau - he could have act much butter.



Trying To make a point at least: I think you could probably turn the whole affaire into a longlasting strategic gain, rather than some tactical, soon forgotten victories.

I wouldn't say anything about his forces or positions of course, but it is obvious that panzers in the open are a big win for you.
It's quite easy and comfortable to defend Moscow for him now, because his spearheads are safe enough. It's not really all about numbers and oob's, it's about the so called morale of his sharpened and polished floret-spearheads - make them blunt. Imagine Pelton without his 18th army?!

The few digested Infantry Div's will only hurt him insofare, as they will happily consume all reenforcements for a while - his elite units became weaker. A perfect first step to say so.
B is at a point now where all reactions hurt. No matter what he is doing now, there are no good alternatives left, it's the search for the last bad move and that make players vulnerable for false assumptions... and feints.

Bring the stress on him. And give him a 'solution' he would happily accept... [:D]
He has only a very limited reserve.


Well done so far, now keep on.

[Seminole]

I am not sure what you are doing with the rifle brigades, but believe me, they are UTTERLY useless as diggers They will NOT build any fort level (a zero) come spring.

Latest version definitely nerfed them in this regard, but they still maintain fortification levels, yes?
Would assigning them to HQs with a heavy construction SU contingent noticeably improve this?
I have somewhere on the order of 100 inf brigades on the map at this point (first week of Dec.) and intended to use them to keep up the fortification levels I'd already built as the inf. div., cav corps, and tank brigades carry the winter offensive.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Seminole

I am not sure what you are doing with the rifle brigades, but believe me, they are UTTERLY useless as diggers They will NOT build any fort level (a zero) come spring.

Latest version definitely nerfed them in this regard, but they still maintain fortification levels, yes?
Would assigning them to HQs with a heavy construction SU contingent noticeably improve this?
I have somewhere on the order of 100 inf brigades on the map at this point (first week of Dec.) and intended to use them to keep up the fortification levels I'd already built as the inf. div., cav corps, and tank brigades carry the winter offensive.

Any unit with a visible CV of 1 or more will maintain forts. So, YES.

The Rifle Brigades are a potential problem for the Soviets. Some are set to REFIT when they enter as reinforcements, so they will fill-out and you can't change that. But you don't want the rest to fill-out with men; you really want them to stay DEPLETED for awhile. 100 Rifle Brigades that have 2,000 men each is just wasted Manpower.

The reason is you need to funnell replacements to front-line units, so they don't become UNREADY. You don't have enough replacements to fill out every unit, so you have to pick and choose. It's better to fill out Divisions, which have more Mobility, than Brigades, which are mobility challenged.

IMO, REFIT management is an often overlooked area for Soviet players in Blizzard. You must manage it well to keep your offensive from running out of gas.

[TulliusDetritus]

Anyway, no matter what you should end up with unready rifle divisions at the start of your turn. This is inevitable. During my blizzard offensive these divisions were not advancing & attacking that turn. They were refitting. On the next turn they were ready to go. I had always 1 or 2 rifle divisions (unready that is) per frontline/Stavka army refitting. And anyway, unready divisions can still make a hasty attack (along some ready chums) = easy wins = potential harvested guards.

[Q-Ball]

T28 and T29: 1/1/42:

Forgot to post last turn, so combining into 2.

This Blizzard is going OK. Baelfiin's strategy is all-in on Moscow, and basically abadonding everything else. As a result, I have hit a brick wall around the Moscow area, but I am gobbling up territory and some units elsewhere.

I have destroyed the equivalent of 5 Germans Infantry Divisions, and 2 Italian Ones (including the Cav that turns into a semi-useful Motorized Division in 1942; that one is bye-bye). I don't anticipate more captures than that.

Otherwise, I am moving West as fast as Cav and AFVs can clear the way, but for the most part Baelfiin is pulling back faster than I can keep up with even those guys.

Attack Counter:

TOTAL SO FAR: 148-56

The ratio isn't great, because I am launching alot of hasty attacks at the end of long marches to catch-up to retreating formations (also, my numbers are not including Surrenders). I also tend to err on the side of "too much", as I really want to get as many Guards as possible.

Moscow:

We have hit a brick wall; north of town, there is at least 2 Panzer Corps, with another Corps south of it, plus Mountain Troops.

If Baelfiin wants to commit his Panzers in the open, he will keep me away from Moscow, at least the "wedge" he has about 6 hexes to either side.

It looks like he is contesting this wedge, but allowing me on the flanks. As a result, I think we will end Blizzard with a Moscow "Bulge", with a cluster of Panzers inside. His March counterattack will likely consist of an attack out of this bulge. That could be to the south, where the terrain is easier to clear one side of the bulge, or to the north, to get a head-start on cutting off Leningrad.

Leningrad:

Speaking of which, this question will be paramount going forward: Will he go for Leningrad in 1942, or not?

I am advancing past Pskov and into Estonia, but these positions are ridiculously overextended, and I will be pulling back in Snow. But after that, what next?

I need to form 2-3 Reserve Armies in the spaces around V-V and Cherepovets, to prevent a big push from Moscow to the Svir. This is objective #1.

Not sure what he'll do; he will also need to attack in the SOUTH in order to clear space in the Ukraine, and push me back east of the Dnepr.

South:

South of Moscow, we are just marching while Fritz Runs westward as fast as possible.

We did some serious damage around Kharkov, and this area has been a disaster for Baelfiin

Not sure what our stop-line is in the South, but we are moving forward, probably into space we will end-up giving back

[Klydon]

It will be tough, but it looks like if you could launch a strong drive south from the west side of Moscow (just west of Kalinin) that he seems thinner there and it would start to make him sweat a bit in Moscow, especially if you could get some movement from the south of Moscow for a big pincers movement.

As long as he is in that area in strength, it is hard to set up a good line going through the Valdi Hills and up to Leningrad, although such a line would be on very favorable defensive terrain, it could also wind up being a huge pocket.

One other thing that may hurt him in the long run. His attrition from so much movement in blizzard has to be taking its toll. He will take even more attrition from moving in the mud in the spring most likely and he will have a ton of territory reoccupy, which will again add to his attrition from movement.

[Flaviusx]

It's a pity you haven't got any cavalry just south of the Valdai hills.

Drive for Smolensk imo. Just ignore Moscow, go deep behind him. On both flanks. This is a game where I can see you continuing the offensive into February.

BTW what kind of shape is your airborne and transports. I would seriously consider making some drops in his deep rear to cut all the rail links leading into Moscow.

[Peltonx]

The all Moscow thing is not going to work.

Leningrad and the south 1941, then Moscow 1942, nothing wrong with taking it if you can, but to hold it is to expensive.

He left allot of easy manpower pts in the south.

Not sure what he has under cover, but it would have to be atleast 12 and 12 inf and panzer.

Nice job, Q-ball.

Pelton

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

It's a pity you haven't got any cavalry [... ]
Smolensk [...]

[...] airborne and transports?????

Flavius, sorry to quote you in such a suspect way, but these were exactly my spontaneous thoughs.

You showed us his railsystem, Q-Ball, now slot his aorta. At least you force all his panzers in the open.

[BletchleyGeek]

The situation on your map and what you describe looks to me as Stalingrad in slow-motion or end up as a massive Demyansk-like thing, with a lot of German forces getting to Spring in a very tight position.

However, I'd be very wary of those forces he's obviously keeping in Germany come March.

Good job as always, Q-Ball You'll might get one of the very few massive Axis encirclements to see in AARs here.

[Q-Ball]

T-30: 1/15/42

Blizzard Offensive continues; still limited attacks, as the Germans keep falling back.

Paras: I saw a couple suggestions on dropping paras on the rail lines. I do have Paras available, but I personally think taking out the rail lines via paras is a little on the gamey side. Others may disagree, and it's not all black and white, but I just think it's a little extreme.

A para drop far enough behind would take several turns to clean-up; a unit has to "flip" the hex, and the FBDs probably can't get there because they are stranded forward. So, I can see it being very crippling, but I don't personally like it.

Production and APs

With the flip to 1942, I am getting 100,000 Manpower a turn. I think this is pretty solid for the most part; keeping Leningrad and the Donbas helps. I am also beginning to run an armaments surplus, so I am turning Artillery TOEs back on.

Not sure how others feel, but I have to work to spend 50 APs a turn, to keep it at 450 or under. I have changed out all the leaders I want to, and I am not that worried overall about C in C. It's almost impossible to keep up, so I don't bother that much, since Soviet has alot of turnover. I am spending some APs on replacing VVS Biplanes.

I am spending the AP surplus on Rifle Brigades. At this point I don't need them, but I am planning ahead, and the way I am managing REFIT, they are just shells. I can always disband them later if I need to; I don't want to get behind if I lose alot of units in 1942.

Not sure what others do, or if you have a surplus. I'll hit April with 500 APs and be able to form lots of Tank Corps, so that will keep me busy with APs for awhile.

Attack Counter:

174-68

Again, lots of failures are hasty attacks on running units. Also, a couple bloody repulses around Moscow.

Not alot of Guards so far....


Moscow:

You can see the maps below, pretty good description

[Klydon]

At some point you will also want to beef up on support units again, so spending some of those points soon on that may not be a bad idea as it will take time for them to train up and be worth a lick.

Getting some brigades in the pipeline now is a good idea simply because you would like to wait about 4-6 weeks before doing anything with them and allow them to train up. That puts them around the first of March. Could go with the occasional cav division as well depending on your situation.

[Flaviusx]

It's easy to save up APs during the blizzard for lack of really good spending opportunities. Armament points are too short to really go nuts on SUs, corps aren't available for building, other units are much too expensive to build, and manpower is tight anyways. (You probably won't even be able to fill out all those rifle brigade shells, let alone new units.) You can modernize the Red Air Force. But mostly, this is a time to bank APs.

So you should setting them aside and building up as big of a pool as possible, because APs will become very scarce after spring of 42 in relation to the many demands on them. You'll be AP starved for at least the next two years after this.

Considerable para drops did in fact occur in the first winter. In most games it doesn't make sense to drop them, but this one is somewhat exceptional. I don't see it being gamey at all to drop them to help pocket and cut supplies, as that is how they were in fact used in real life. Remember that the Sovs came very close to crippling AGC.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Considerable para drops did in fact occur in the first winter. In most games it doesn't make sense to drop them, but this one is somewhat exceptional. I don't see it being gamey at all to drop them to help pocket and cut supplies, as that is how they were in fact used in real life. Remember that the Sovs came very close to crippling AGC.

Didn't the Soviets Para units -- I mean to recall they used several divisions and brigade sized formations in spring and early summer 42 -- get so badly trashed and almost entirely captured behind the German lines that they didn't play any role anymore for the rest of the conflict? I believe they were poorly conducted assaults, that failed to coordinate and the jumpers were also not well trained, whereas the Germans were quick to react and crush the assaults before that had time to coordinate.

Would be an interesting question how much use a player could make of a large para formation in the later war instead of risking to sacrifice them early?

[Seminole]

I do have Paras available, but I personally think taking out the rail lines via paras is a little on the gamey side. Others may disagree, and it's not all black and white, but I just think it's a little extreme.

I always thought Monty was a gamey bastard! [;)]
Trying to circumvent the river barrier rules by dropping Amis, Brits and <gasp> Poles, willy-nilly!

Here's something I just found on Soviet use of the paras in the winter offensive:

During the Soviet counter-offensive for the Defence of Moscow at Vyazma, 27th January 1942, the Soviet 4th Airborne Corps began a series of night drops of paratroopers in the German rear. Forty civilian and twenty-two military aircraft, escorted by limited numbers of fighters and ground attack aviation, supported the landings. From the beginning, the operation did not go well. &nbsp; After, six nights, only 2,100 men from the 10,000-man airborne corps had been dropped in. Because of bad weather and the pilots' inexperience with night navigation, most of these troops landed twenty kilometers south of the intended drop zone. Plans for five to six sorties each night did not take into account adverse weather conditions, aircraft failures, or combat losses. Also, the failure to conceal the buildup of troops at the airborne fields led to the closing of one of them by German bombers. The remaining two fields provided only two to three sorties per night. &nbsp; The paratroops that landed, however, did succeed in interdicting lines of communication in the German rear area for almost three weeks, in part because of their linkup with the 1st Guards Cavalry Corps on 6 February. &nbsp; A second series of night landings occurred near Yukhnov between 17 and 23 February. The paratroops were again spread out over a large area because of inaccurate drops, and many supplies were lost. Some of the paratroops eventually joined partisan groups in the area, while the main body restricted itself to night operations because of its lack of artillery and air support. A planned two- to three-day operation extended to almost five months, but despite incredible problems, the remnant of the 4th Airborne Corps managed to break through two encirclements (with the help of a battalion of reinforcements dropped into the area on 15-16 April) and to reach friendly lines by late May. Although it had created considerable havoc in the German rear, the corps was decimated. It had not accomplished its mission of preventing a German withdrawal to the west, because German counterblows had halted the main Russian advance.

[Tarhunnas]

Nice AAR. It is comforting to see someone else getting a dose of the Q-Ball winter offensive. [;)]

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Nice AAR. It is comforting to see someone else getting a dose of the Q-Ball winter offensive. [;)]

Thanks! I definitely like my Blizzards.

In fact, I personally think Blizzard was my best phase in my game vs. Bletchley Geek. My summer 1941 was OK, but nothing special (I didn't take Moscow), and so far my 1942 is also nothing great either. But I put a plan together and executed it in Blizzard in that game, and I came out of it about as well as could be expected, IMO. It's possible I'm now squandering that advantage, but I think I "won" Blizzard in that game, as much as it is possible for the Germans to "win" it.

I just broke my arm patting myself on the back...[:D]

T-32: 1/15/42

WOW! Moscow is liberated. The Fascists left town! I can't beleive it. I thought he could have held a little longer, though I also think Baelfiin is really gearing-up for a big March. And that's got me worried.

Blizzard Offensive:

We are seriously running out of gas.

First, we have advanced 20 hexes in some places, grossly outrunning our pitiful rail repair. I halted around Velikye Luki, not from German resistance, but because our units crossed into "YELLOW". Not good. I guess not having Cav there didn't hurt me after all, because supplies are not happening there.

My units are mostly still "READY", but a little depleted, and at any rate, strung-out from running westward every turn.

Finally, we are starting to run into serous German formations

Wehrmacht:

All Blizzard, I haven't seen more than about 50-ish divisions along the front. And I know the Wehrmacht has over 100 Infantry Divisions at this stage. I think he must have a big reserve somewhere, that definitely includes at least half his Panzers.

There are two Wehrmachts; the guys who have spent 1941 outside, getting kicked around; they are really in bad shape. And, there is a 1941 Wehrmacht still out there, ready to pounce.

Baelfiin clearly withdrew forces, and is surviving by trading space for time. I have taken huge amounts of ground, but he let me out-run my supplies, and now with January ending, I am at the end of the line. Not a terrible strategy, actually.

I captured some units this Blizzard, but other than that, my main accomplishment is taking space. Space that I will mostly give right back in March. The only good news is that I can easily afford to surrender 30-ish hexes in most places without a problem, at least in the Center.

[Peltonx]

Wow his OOB is at 3.3 million mid January. Most times I am at about 3 million mid January, but your OOB is strong also.

Nice Blizzard O.

Should be a very interesting 1942.

All things seem to be equal so far.

Pelton

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Wow his OOB is at 3.3 million mid January. Most times I am at about 3 million mid January, but your OOB is strong also.

Nice Blizzard O.

Should be a very interesting 1942.

All things seem to be equal so far.

Pelton

That's what I'm saying.....he is weak on the map, but I suspect he has been conserving strength elsewhere.

It's not a bad strategy, in the sense that his army will be in good shape. The tradeoff is that he surrendered ALOT of ground, so it's predicated on his ability to win it back in 1942. Which he probably can.

I still think the most critical spot in 1942 is going to be Leningrad, and whether I can hold it.

I expect to lose Moscow again, but hope to make him expend alot of effort in re-taking it

[Klydon]

Honestly, I think he will go for the knock out shot with a drive to the north to the EAST of the Valdi Hills through VV and points north. Should your dispositions remain as they are, he will bag an enormous amount of the Red army. This is the area of the map that you appear to be most vulnerable in to that sort of manuver. Even if he settles for lopping off a big chunk, it will hurt bad. He is also positioned to launch some sort of offensive in the south by heading east and then south to the Sea of Azov, but I don't think he will bag as much down there and he knows it.

It appears you can still make hay south of Moscow by driving NW. Perhaps you can get him to back up some more.