The Hive - Cruft PBEM (Japan, Scen 2 Beta + Stacking Limits)

[Captain Cruft]

Actually it's not quite true that there no airfields in range. Below is what 27 Oscars with pilots un-trained in LowG or Staf can do flying at long-range with silly little bombs.

Rather a pleasing result IMO.

Also note the Chinese stack to the W of Loyang, who have decided not to advance any more after receiving some ordnance.


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Morning Air attack on Sian , at 83,41

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 27

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
SB-III: 1 damaged
SB-III: 1 destroyed on ground

Airbase hits 9
Airbase supply hits 7
Runway hits 34

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 30 kg GP Bomb
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[Captain Cruft]

Notes ...

Today we had a lot of re-naming and re-sizing of LBA airgroups. This has led to the following:-

Two more airgroups for the IJAAF Swarm. The qualification for being part of this is that a) the group is not scheduled to withdraw and b) the group will eventually resize to 49 planes. So now there are a total of 16 airgroups involved (15 x F and 1 x FB), which will amount to nearly 800 planes in mid 1944. I am going to put them all under the command of the 1st Air Army, which is heading to Tsinan. I should have said before that the real enemy of the Swarm is destined to be the Soviets, so that positioning seem quite appropriate.

For the IJNAF a F and DB pair stationed at Hakodate has enlarged considerably. This additional protection has prompted me to plan to move 5th Fleet HQ from Ominato, along with the motley collection of warships that I enumerated earlier as being allocated for defence of the Kuriles. Hakodate is 2 hexes nearer the potential combat zone than Ominato, and is on the cusp of becoming a size 7 port. AKEs are already present.

Finally, some bombers are now reported at Rabaul, which has built up to a size 6 airfield already. I am expecting the first 4E raid on Truk any day now.

[Schlemiel]

I'm very curious to see how this strategy will play out.  It seems very theoretically solid, as it is not easy to break a stiff defense of the hive given game mechanics, but in practice I'm curious how the relative ease of operational 4e bombing so early may affect it.  I presume the swarm will have a massive trained pilot reserve by 1944 if all goes as planned?

[Captain Cruft]

There should certainly be a large Reserve of LowG pilots due to the abundance of bomber airgroups. Air training is a bit more difficult, currently I only have 3 fighter training units, but you only ever get more airgroups.

I'm curious how the relative ease of operational 4e bombing so early may affect it

Not sure what you mean by that? Right now the only places he can address me with 4Es are in Burma (where they regularly bomb the division at Mandalay), Truk (not happened yet and doesn't matter anyway since the fleet has moved to Ulithi/Guam) and Timor/Ambon (no signs of action).

Look at it from the Allied side. He has to start his Pacific amphibious campaign by going up against well-prepared hard targets, rather than something soft in the Gilberts or Solomons. No practise runs and no Japanese attrition ... I am lucky though that he doesn't seem to want to use the Darwin axis.

[Schlemiel]

I mean he can do the traditional Allied build up a base and start blowing up airfields for the next phase thing a bit earlier (since he doesn't really have to do it for, say, the Solomons before he can invade like some Allied players would be forced to).  It works in the outer zone fairly well, but I'm not sure it can be effective against the hive with the way you are focusing your defenses (and the difficulty of fighter sweeps anywhere near the Hive until, I imagine, the P47-D25 and later P-38s at least).

I agree that denying him the ability to gain experience for his ground units while, I imagine, being able to turn down your own replacements for a while to build a a further HI reserve and avoid attrition seems like a great idea to me.

I know when I play Allied, I end up designating a fair number of rear echelon fighter groups for pseudo training or just set them fully to train, have you done anything similar?  A fighter group with a week's notice can convert back fully to experienced pilots from the pool, but it might as well be training up fighter recruits until it is needed for something else.  At least as the Allies, you can even have, say 10 excellent pilots for a CAP while having (in a group of 25) another 23 pilots that can be training up their skills with something like a 30 CAP/70 training split.  I presume you are, but definitely take advantage of groups that aren't expecting immediate combat (or are not emergency reserves waiting to ship to an emergent combat zone) to help train up a few more pilots if you are low on training squadrons.  As you know, you don't have to limit yourself to just designated training squadrons to train up pilots.  Seems like the hive strategy gives you extra room for that as well, as it will take him some time to threaten the hive where many groups won't be expected to be in combat.

[Captain Cruft]

As mentioned earlier the IJN has only lost a single DD. So basically my entire combat fleet is still intact, and he mostly doesn't know where it is. Given that he only has 6 USN CVs at this point he probably thinks that he does not have the naval superiority necessary to force an assault anywhere. As I also said earlier, he is definitely risk-averse.

All this means that I don't really have to actually fight to stop him advancing. I believe he will wait until he has more stuff like Essex class CVs etc. Of course I could be wrong but so far it seems to be working that way. Then when he does come I will fight with LBA and light surface forces, and at the same time I will consider releasing the KB on a raid somewhere where his CVs aren't. Or alternatively if his CVs appear to have been exhausted by my LBA I may just pop out and try for a 8 hex range attack. When the tactical situation in an area is obviously lost, I will then aggressively evacuate all the LCUs I can manage using air and expendable sea transport.

This plan applies to the Marshalls, Carolines, Marianas and Philippines.

The whole point is to delay the real battle of attrition until we get to something like the Downfall situation, but with the core of my forces still intact and a very dense and very well-prepared defence, including kamikazes with good pilots. From playing the Downfall scen, it is clear to me that even with the vast preponderance that the Allies possess invading the Home Islands is a tricky job indeed.

[Captain Cruft]

I mean he can do the traditional Allied build up a base and start blowing up airfields for the next phase thing a bit earlier

Blow up what airfields and to what purpose? Netties on defence can always stand back out of 4E range. If an airfield or set of airfields become untenable I will simply move out and retreat.

[Captain Cruft]

Here's what I have defending the Marshalls.

The only places without CD guns are Eniwetok, Ebadon, Ailinglaplap and Kusaie Island.

[Captain Cruft]

Nov 3rd 1942

Swarm tactics vindicated?

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Afternoon Air attack on 46th Chinese Corps, at 74,54 , near Liuchow

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 28 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 259

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 16 damaged
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 3 destroyed by flak

Allied ground losses:
1139 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 56 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 59 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
32 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
35 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
31 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
30 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
34 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
37 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
32 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
24 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing from 100 feet
Ground Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 59th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 64th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 93rd Chinese Division ...
Also attacking 8th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 52nd Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 31st Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 46th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 59th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 64th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 93rd Chinese Division ...
Also attacking 8th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 52nd Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 31st Chinese Corps ...

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Ground combat at 74,54 (near Liuchow)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 34686 troops, 502 guns, 2086 vehicles, Assault Value = 1427

Defending force 40226 troops, 228 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1178

Japanese adjusted assault: 956

Allied adjusted defense: 165

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1573 casualties reported
Squads: 26 destroyed, 87 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Vehicles lost 50 (1 destroyed, 49 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
15000 casualties reported
Squads: 664 destroyed, 154 disabled
Non Combat: 232 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 20 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 32 (24 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Units retreated 5

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
2nd Tank Division
17th Division
1st Tank Division
7th Ind.Tank Brigade
Guards Tank Division

Defending units:
59th Chinese Corps
64th Chinese Corps
8th Chinese Corps
46th Chinese Corps
93rd Chinese Division
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I lost 10 Oscars in the attack, out of 259 which flew. That's 3.9%, much better than last time, albeit the Chinese stack was smaller.

One thing was really interesting watching the combat replay. The first several flights of Oscars suffered badly from the flak, but at some point the AA puffs of smoke completely disappeared and no further planes were damaged. I think this is because AA and other support devices are a favourite target of the ground attack routine and so at some point all the AA devices in the hex became disabled. Or in other words, the Swarm overwhelmed the defence ...

What really astonished me though was the sheer number of casualties caused to the Chinese by the subsequent ground combat [X(]

[Saros]

That isn't really a surprising result for the combat to be honest.  Clear terrain with tired and disrupted Chinese troops = a rout. The AA fire was probably reduced by lack of supplies as well.
That being said you are going to take some really heavy losses against proper ground units with AA support. Look at some of the allied heavy AA units and their huge number of Light Flak guns as well as the organic AAMG and 20/40mm cannons in the divisions. But if the aim is to bust up airfields you will be taking losses anyway as the Japanese so you might just be onto something with the swarm.

Admittedly I am not too sure how you can spare so many fighters from actual fighter duties. Does Scen 2 give you that many more units or have you completely stripped the 2nd Air army out of Manchuria?

[Captain Cruft]

I have no fighter groups in Manchuria. All units were bought out individually.

The reason I can spare so many fighters is because I am not letting the Western Allies fight me anywhere. Except Burma where I can't avoid it. There are about 120 fighters over there duking it out with the Brits and 10th USAAF. Everywhere else the Zero and Netty flotillas are acting as a deterrent. No IJAAF air is in the Pacific or DEI.

[Captain Cruft]

One thing about the Swarm is supposed to be its psychological effect. It takes a long time to watch all those Oscars strafe and bomb in flights of 4 at a time. The idea is to dispirit the enemy in much the same way as 4E bombers can dispirit the Japanese player. As in "WTF can I do about this?

In fact the whole reason I conceived this approach was in an attempt to come up with an answer to the 4E menace. Not by fighting them directly but by creating an equivalent "big stick".

[FDRLincoln]

I am learning a lot from reading this AAR, although my PBEM opponent is much more aggressive than yours. It's only December 24 and I've already lost 2 CL and 9 DD through various means...I am causing more damage than I've taken, yes, but his aggressive defense is bleeding some ships I will need later.

[Captain Cruft]

I am quite surprised to have only lost one DD so far. This was torpedoed by a Dutch sub at Kota Bharu very early on.

After the initial messy invasion phase (which I hate with a passion) all my CLs, CAs & BBs have mostly been tied up in port. He did try to cause some problems with his surface forces in the DEI but at the first sniff of a Netty he would retreat to safety. Therefore we never actually had any surface battles, PT boats excepted.

Throughout the game his subs have been very active though, particularly in the DEI and around Hokkaido. Even with the duff torpedos I have still lost a lot of xAKs, several PBs and a few tankers. I don't use DDs for escorting oil/fuel/resource/supply convoys, only for troops, and these will be supplanted by Es when more become available.

DDs are for fighting surface battles [8D]

[Saros]

A not insignificant proportion of old IJN DD's are really no good at fighting surface battles and should be relegated to escorting valuble things like oilers and troops. Many have only 2-3 12cm guns, are quite short ranged and sport only a couple of old torpedo tubes. As a good rule of thumb if it doesn't have Long lances its probably not worth bringing to a surface fight.

[Captain Cruft]

Whether the old DDs are of any use in a fight really depends on who their opponents are and what state they're in.

They are a fundamental part of Torpedo Avalanche, which I will attempt to illustrate in 1944 or so ... [;)]

[FDRLincoln]

In my game we have had several surface actions already. The Long Lances do good work against slow merchantmen, but against something fast and maneuverable, they have done very little.

The one exception was two Long Lance hits that sank Prince of Wales in a major surface battle. However, those torps only hit after the ship had already been smothered by 100+ shell hits of various calibers, so I doubt she was more than a flaming hulk when the torps hit.

Other than that, I don't think my Long Lances have hit a single Allied warship, although I'll have to check tomorrow for sure.

[FDRLincoln]

Betties and Nells have been similarly ineffective in their attacks for me so far.

[FDRLincoln]

Not hijacking your AAR Cruft, but more wondering how effective your smother them with torpedoes strategy will be, if they are as inaccurate as they have been so far in my game.

[Captain Cruft]

I am wondering that too. Numbers will be important, as well as the conditions.

It's all only a vague theory at this point, but in Downfall I have had midget subs put 3 fish into an Essex class CV. They have also had single hits on several lesser types of ship (e.g. APA, AM) under the worst of conditions, with no support from fleet subs or surface units and little from the air. This lends me hope ...