Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J), no spence, please

[fcharton]

January 20th, 1942

The war in New Guinea

Ambon fell today, after a month of resistance. I suppose the Allies would consider this a victory, but I am not that sure. The battle cost me a base force and several cargoes and transports. The enemy lost the Dutch garrison, the Australian units that were sent to reinforce (two companies), and a number of ships, including CA Pensacola and CL Danae. The battle delayed my advance in the DEI, but did not block it. As the enemy was focused on Ambon, the invasion of Kendari was unopposed.

Most importantly, it could have been much worse. At some point, in late December, it did look like the battle for Ambon might become a very difficult affair: the enemy was reinforcing faster than I could, and intercepted several of my resupply task forces. Why my opponent gave up this strategy in the first week of January is a mystery to me.

On the other side of New Guinea, the naval guard unit that captured Gasmata yesterday was embarking for Lae when the enemy bombed my ships. Fortunately, I did not have many troops aboard, but I hate those Banshees.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Gasmata at 103,127
Weather in hex: Overcast
Allied aircraft
A-24 Banshee x 9

Japanese Ships
xAP Kashima Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Kamikaze Maru
CM Okinoshima, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
102 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Outlaws of the marshes

In the marshes of the Huai, between Suchow and Pengpu (right where most of the action of Outlaws of the Marshes take place), the Lusu war area was finally destroyed. This was the last enemy unit left behing my lines.

West of Yenan, the PLA lost one hundred combat squads to a river crossing. I am attacking again tomorrow, the more squad we damage, the less they have when they reach Sian.

Here is a map of the situation in China



The bulk of my forces, 15 divisions, is converging on Sian. The main thrust is the southernmost column, moving on the major road from Nanyang. The three other columns (Yenan, Taiyuan, and Loyang) are moving over slower roads, and pushing Chinese units before them. If everything goes fine, I should reach Sian before them, and pocket a good number of Chinese.

In the north, one division in Kweisui and another one in Taiyuan, are acting as flank guards. They will eventually march west, towards Urumchi. In the south, two divisions are commited to chasing the KMT from the coast, and a third one is defending the Nanchang area, where three more divisions have been defeating the Chinese. Those three divisions are now marching on Ichang, where I intend to try and damage the KMT units besieging the city, and threaten Changsha from the north.

Once Sian is captured, I will probably keep half the troops I have there to march on Lanchow, and send the other half towards Hankow, either to reinforce Ichang, or to try to make a pincer attack on Changsha. As explained before, I want to reduce the Chinese forces before I march on Chungking. The drive on Sian will eliminate a third of the KMT troops, and the battles of Ichang and Changsha another third. Once those are won, China will be ripe for taking.

[fcharton]

January 21st, 1942

Radio Free Burma

South of Mergui, the last defenders of Victoria Point surrendered today. The city was captured yesterday, and its garrison surrendered as well. This means all the area from Rangoon to Johore is now free of enemies. North of Rangoon, the enemy stack were are chasing north was pushed back into Prome. The base does not seem garrisoned, and will probably fall on first try. So far, the conquest of Southern Burma has been a very easy one.

My plans for Burma are pretty simple. Until Singapore falls, one reinforced division is all I have to take the place. I will push North, reach Mandalay and Schwebo, and try to block the road to China. How far I can progress will depend on how many units my opponent left there. After the fall of Singapore, I will reinforce with a second division, and some armor. Their goal will be to seal the road from Paoshan. Finally, larger reinforcements will be sent after the DEI falls (before June, I hope). Their goal will be to prevent the reopening of the supply lines to China, and intercept any Chinese unit that might try to flee.

After China falls, Burma will be reinforced by troops from China. Its defender, already unrestricted, will be transferred to the DEI, to save political points.

The other road to Sian

The four columns converging on Sian do so at different speeds. The fastest one is the Nanyang stack. They just reached the first forest hex west of Nanyang. Counting three or four days per hex (time to move and fight), we should reach Sian at the end of the month.

The three others are moving over secondary roads (the Yenan column across country, right now). All are five hexes away, which mean they should arrive in Sian around the 15th of February. This delay suits me fine. By the time the three columns arrive in Sian, pushing enemy units before them, those enemy units will be easy to deal with.

Today, the Taiyuan column defeated two Chinese corps.

50+236+84+12Ground combat at 89,40 (near Taiyuan)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 37884 troops, 322 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 1287
Defending force 6050 troops, 84 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 103

Japanese ground losses:
206 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 24 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
3116 casualties reported
Squads: 120 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 107 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 35 (14 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Units retreated 3

Since the beginning of the war, 9890 chinese combat squads are reported destroyed (out of about 35 000).

[fcharton]

January 22nd, 1942

From Noumea, with love

After Port Moresby and Cooktown, KB is sailing past Noumea today. DMS Hopkins, AD Dixie and xAK Ruth Alexander were sunk. Three tankers were hit

TK H. M. Storey, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
TK Connecticut, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
TK Larry Doheny, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires

None of them has shown up in the sunk list, unfortunately, but Tracker reports an increase of almost 300 points of my VP total, which might correspond in part to unreported sinkings.

Next stop is Suva, and then back towards Nauru Island for replenishment.

I think I’d rather starve

In Sandakan (a small marsh base on the coast of North Borneo), the 108th RN base Force, which had retreated all the way from Kudat was once again attacked by the III/66th Naval Guard unit. And once again, the supply-less, morale-less, experienceless and leaderless Brits managed to survive, and only get one disabled squad.

… well, until the end of the turn, when I got the following message :
108th RN Base Force Wiped Out at Sandakan by attrition!!!

Another busy day in the Heavenly Empire

In China, since most of my units are now on the move, I only get battles once or twice a week. Today, they all seemed to happen at the same time, though.

West of Nanyang, a retreating stack of 17 units was attacked but held its ground. Losses were high, though.

Japanese ground losses:
323 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 29 (3 destroyed, 26 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3290 casualties reported
Squads: 124 destroyed, 54 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 72 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 42 (23 destroyed, 19 disabled)

West of Loyang, the KMT had managed to evacuate most of its units, so it was a rearguard action. Interestingly, more enemy squads were destroyed there

Japanese ground losses:
123 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
3681 casualties reported
Squads: 322 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 154 destroyed, 34 disabled
Engineers: 13 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 42 (20 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Units retreated 6

Near Yenan, another deliberate attack pushed the PLA towards Sian

Japanese ground losses:
145 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2641 casualties reported
Squads: 143 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 213 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 10 (6 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Units retreated 11

There were limited battles in Chuhsien and Nanning as well. We are moving slowly in China, but today, we eliminated 640 more combat squads.

[fcharton]

Sorry for the long delay. I have been working, for a change, and then my opponent went on holiday for a week, and I thought I would use the time to fix various things and catch up on the AAR, but I didn’t, and now he is back and the game is back as well .So here is a brief account of the war.

January 23rd to 28th, 1942

23rd : Ambon bombarded
Five light cruisers and six destroyers bombarded Ambon this morning. A small amphibious task force (2 PB and 4 xAK)that was about to load troops was mercilessly sunk and the airfields was trashed. But my guardian demon (or whatever it is Evil Empires use for angels) was watching:

DD Alden collides with CL De Ruyter at 76 , 109
DD Isis collides with CL De Ruyter at 76 , 109

In Tracker and the info screen, a nice report announced the loss of CL De Ruyter. It was FOW, and CL De Ruyter was spotted in Surabaya a few days later. But it felt nice at the time.


24th: Mr Butai does Fiji, and other naval stories

Our raid on Suva went fine, a tanker, two cargoes and two mine sweepers were sunk. Meanwhile, another large tanker (Emidio) was torpedoed near Pukapuka (I don’t know where it is, but I love the name, both tropical and slightly disgusting…)

Yet another tanker, William H. Berg, had been sunk near Christmas island on the twenty third. Over two days, three tankers, worth more than 20 000 tons, were dispatched. Why the Allies don’t throw the towel is beyond me!

25th Victory in Prome

The former defenders of Rangoon were defeated once more. I feel sorry for the poor guys, as the whole thing reminds me of a cat playing with a half dead lizard (with the Imperial Guard division as the cat). We are slowly advancing on Mandalay.

26th Tandjoengselor

Well, the base fell before you can say its name three times. This completes the capture or the southern coast of Borneo. The southern Celebes are our next target. Progress in the DEI is slow and methodical. Since I don’t intend to build a large perimeter here, I don’t see the point of rushing.

To Sian and beyond

Over 950 squads were destroyed in China this week, for a grand total of 11 473 since the beginning of the war. In the south, Nanning fell. The 104th and the 38th ID will now march to Lang Son, where they will be railed to Singapore (which should be invaded tomorrow). A few units from Vietnam are moving into China. Southern China will be reinforced once Wenchow falls, but right now, I am very thin on the ground.

In the north, we are now one hex away from Sian, and have cut off the defenders of Loyang, that retreated along the minor road. The enemy obviously has very little to fight back. It seems more and more obvious that Sian will be ours by the beginning of February.

[fcharton]

January 29th, 1942

Bloody causeway

We are in Singapore! 2500 AV, around three divisions, shock attacked across the straits and invested the city. It was bloody, as always.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 75948 troops, 736 guns, 353 vehicles, Assault Value = 2540
Defending force 36720 troops, 423 guns, 208 vehicles, Assault Value = 905
Japanese adjusted assault: 1354
Allied adjusted defense: 1817
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
9006 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 786 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 75 destroyed, 104 disabled
Guns lost 63 (5 destroyed, 58 disabled)
Vehicles lost 24 (8 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3045 casualties reported
Squads: 141 destroyed, 219 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 140 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 95 (15 destroyed, 80 disabled)
Vehicles lost 18 (5 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Disruption and disablements are very high. The 113th infantry regiment dropped from 120 AV to 2… But the enemy lost 140 combat squads, has only 900 AV, behind level three forts.

Three divisions are on their way to reinforce the city. The Fourth is now embarking in Iba, and should sail tomorrow. The 38th and 104th are in Hanoi, packing, and will move by train to Saigon, then march on Phnom Penh, and be sent in by train.

The Sian pocket

In northern China, prospects are very good. As you might remember, four columns are converging on Sian: one from Yenan, one from Taiyuan, over the railway line, one from Loyang over the secondary road, one from Nanyang over the major road.

Yesterday, the Nanyang column reached the last forest hex before Sian, and today, they cleared the hex. This means two things. Sian is now defended by a large number of troops, but many of them are remnants from defeated units. In all likeliness, the city should be ours by the beginning of February. Also, the units retreated from Loyang are now stranded in the woods between Sian and the plain, with IJA troops before and behind them. The fall of Sian will complicate their supply situation.

Overall, a large number of Chinese units are far away from their bases, between Yenan, Taiyuan, Sian and Loyang. This is not quite a “pocket”. Most of those troops can, and will escape, but their supply situation will be complicated, and this provides me with a good opportunity to further reduce their numbers.

I believe the forward defense of Nanyang was a mistake. My opponent allowed me to bombard his troops, and reduce their numbers in open terrain. As a result, he lacked a second line to prevent rapid advance over the major road. As the KMT, you really need to garrison this road.

What now? My Nanyang columns will be split. Half of it will march on Sian, and try to take the city, while the rest will remain in place, to prevent the units on the small road to join the defense of Sian.

After Sian, I don’t intend to push forward, but rather clear the area between Sian, Ankang, and Tienshui, and defeat enemy units left east of the base.

[fcharton]

January 30th, 1942

A pair of ships a day

Since the beginning of the war, I have sunk 166 enemy ships, and lost 64. I do understand that enemy losses tend to be inflated, and the actual ratio is probably around 2:1. On average, I have been sinking three ships a day, but the current rate is lower, slightly under two a day (1.75 if moving averages are to be trusted). I am losing less than a ship every day (about 0.8).

And so, our two enemy sinkings for today were:
DMS Elliot, torpedoed by SS I-19 while on an ASW mission near Pearl Harbor.
AVP Pollux, torpedoed near Ruteng (Timor) by Kates from mini-KB

This will certainly not be enough to turn the tide of Allied naval production, but it feels good nonetheless.

Last stand on Mindanao

Mindanao is all ours, except Cagayan, where all enemy units have assembled. The 144th Infantry regiment arrived yesterday, reinforcing the 146th, the 5th amphibious brigade and an SNLF battalion. A first deliberate attack reduced the forts, but failed to achieve 1:1 odds. It is probably the matter of a couple of weeks.

Elsewhere in the Philippines, Tawi Tawi was taken, a SNLF unit in Cebu was attacked by a Philippine division, for little effect. Most of the small islands and dot bases are now under Japanese control. Only Leyte, Panay and Cebu are held by the enemy.

In Bataan, daily bombardments seem to achieve very little. I am losing a few squads every day, and the enemy is not. I am destroying their supplies, that is for sure, but it seems clear this will take a while.

Daily damage in China

With Sian soon under control, and most units in the north badly damaged (I am trying to attack with just armor, tomorrow, see if it can work against superior numbers in clear terrain), I want to launch a new offensive in Central China. The objective is always the same : reduce Chinese numbers.

Ichang has nine units, in clear terrain, that have been sitting there since the beginning of the game. A preliminary bombardment, today, revealed 2100 AV. I will have about the same number tomorrow, I am behind forts, they are not, it is worth a try. If resistance proved too strong, I could probably reinforce Ichang in a couple of weeks, with troops from Sian.

Reinforcements have arrived in Wenchow. I believe I have enough to take the city. Once this is done, I will probably move troops north, to clear the plains around Nanchang.

The general idea is to be able to threaten Changsha with a pincer attack by the end of February, once troops from Sian can be sent to Central China. I am not sure I will actually attack the Hunan basin. In fact I might as well march west and go for Lanchow and Sining, or turn south towards Sichuan. But I want to present my opponent with complex decisions in China.

Once Ichang is cleared, defending Changsha puts its garrison at risk, but abandoning it looks like a very bad idea, supplywise.


Production news – Feeding the Home Island

Imperial factories consume 300 000 tons or resources every day. Since most of them are in Japan, the home islands account for more than 80% of total resource usage, 242 000 tons per day. As local production only amounts to 163 800 tons / day, the Home Islands run at a deficit of 78.2k tons. In Scenario 2, Japan begins the game with 6.7 million tons stocked. Over the whole game (say 1600 turns) this would represent the equivalent of a daily output of 4.2k, and reduces the daily deficit to 74k tons.

Hokkaido and Sakhalin produce 50 400 tons per day, and use up 6 000. 44 400 tons can be sent to Japan. They also begin the game with a little more than a million ton of stocks, which represent an additional production of 600 tons per day, for a grand total of 45 000 tons, or 60% of Japan’s need.

The rest, of 29k tons per day, must come from Korea, and use excess production in Manchukuo, China, Indochina and Malaysia, and Formosa (which I convoy to China).

To keep my economy running, I need to convoy every day:
- 10k tons from Sakhalin to Hokkaido
- 45k tons from Hokkaido to the Home Islands
- 30k tons from Korea to the Home Islands

I am not there yet. Over the recent weeks, Japan was running at a deficit of about 20 000 tons per day. This means I am importing a little less than 60k tons a day.

Sakhalin resource stocks are increasing by a little less than 3000 tons per day, which suggests my convoys are short by the same amount. Hokkaido stocks are down 6 000 tons per day. This means I am probably importing about 50k tons per day from Hokkaido, and my Korean convoys are much too small, importing around 10k tons of resource per day.

I suspect the major reason is that I have started exporting supplies to Korea, over the same convoy line. This increases load and unload delays, and makes the route slower, which in turn reduces the flow.

Anyway, current convoys will eventually deplete Hokkaido, but are not sufficient to feed Japan. At this rate, stocks will last 230 days, which is much better than the 2 months Japan begins the game with, but still not enough.

The key, I believe is Fusan. It is now a level five port, on its way to level six.

[obvert]

Just pop a few Manchurian divisions into Fusan plus a bunch of engineers and build it up fast. Then use a LOT of fast loading AKLs there and it will draw quickly as they load and depart. You should also be able to get a lot more than 10k a day out of Sakhalin. I drained it completely at one point to load the HI with resources quickly. For Hokkaido use all ports up to level 3 to remove resources and you'll get quite a lot coming over.

There is plenty of shipping.

Also, if you have Nauru and Ocean, sending that to Truk will give the supply and troop ships something to take back to Tokyo.

The Mike Solli thread in the beginning outlines his CS TFs which is great to see. Also the new Chikenboy mid-war AAR has a lot of good production/economy stuff if you haven't checked it out.

[fcharton]

January 31st 1942

ASW Woes

No enemy ships were sunk today. Off Balikpapan, HEIMS Keiko Maru, a patrol boat on antisubmarine duty, was sunk by the ship she was chasing.

The straits between Borneo and the Celebes are infested with submarines. I have good naval search over the area, and am dispatching several ASW task forces.

Enemy raiders have not been seen lately. I am launching a port attack on Surabaya tomorrow, in case some of them are parked there.

Good times in China

An interesting battle took place today, in Sian, where 550 tanks fought fourteen chinese corps, and a handful of headquarters. I had less than 200 AV, against 2500 enemies, behind level three forts, and odds were at 1:6. Here were the results :

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 124 (7 destroyed, 117 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
459 casualties reported
Squads: 52 destroyed, 56 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 19 (2 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Seven tanks (disablements will be repaired) for 52 squads and two guns seems like a good trade. Two infantry divisions have been joining the fray, and my artillery is not far behind. It seems that the enemy is evacuating some of their troops.

On the road from Taiyuan, the three Chinese corps retreating towards Sian are in very bad shape. Today, their raw AV was 39 (from over 400 a week ago), and more than 80 combat squads and 36 guns were destroyed today.

In central China, a Chinese corps has been trying for several day to dislodge a RGC division, in Wuhu. My collaborationists have been doing surprisingly well. Today’s shock attack achieved nothing. A mixed brigade is two days away. That Chinese corps is doomed.

Finally, Wenchow fell today to a deliberate attack. This completes the capture of all bases in Fujian and Zhejiang. Several enemy stacks are now fleeing towards Changsha. I will try to intercept and damage them on the way.

January report

January was another good month for Japan. In Burma, Rangoon was captured and the flow of supplies to China cut off. In Malaya, all the peninsula was occupied, we are now besieging Singapore. In the East Indies, the southern coast of Borneo is ours, together with Ambon, and most of the Celebes. In the Philippines, Japan controls most of the archipel, most enemy troops are under siege in Bataan and Cagayan.

In China, all the north and the central plains are now cleared, we are fighting around Sian. Wenchow and the nearby bases are all ours, enemy losses are mounting.

In terms of victory points, the ratio went from 1:1.5 (6368 vs 9719 for the allies) to 1.3:1 (11242 vs 8539). 71 bases were captured, ground losses were 160 vs 2130. We sank 53 ships and lost 24. In the air, we lost 322 planes, the enemy 372. We are still doing better, but it is getting even.

My main worry, at present, is the slow progression in the Indies and South Pacific. We have not moved against Guadalcanal, or Timor, or Java, or Sumatra. The bright side is, of course, the situation in China.

[obvert]

On the attack in Sian, did you initiate that or did the Chinese go for your tanks? If he's got level 3 forts I would get at least a 2 to 1 AV ratio there before trying a DA. Although this is a good result, I have had some horrendous casualty numbers in China with even 3 to 1 odds if going against forts, or good terrain, or both. Here the terrain will help you, so 2 to 1 might be sufficient, but I would bet you'll have at least one very bloody 1:1 or even a 1:2 attack.

Also, bomb and arty bombard them and the airfield as much as possible before a DA.

Here is one example from my game early on in Sian. It took a while to recover 1421 infantry squads!

[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 130416 troops, 1140 guns, 422 vehicles, Assault Value = 4826

Defending force 88800 troops, 524 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2860

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 3

Japanese adjusted assault: 4143

Allied adjusted defense: 2249

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
13420 casualties reported
Squads: 223 destroyed, 1421 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 224 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 68 disabled
Guns lost 100 (27 destroyed, 73 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
7087 casualties reported
Squads: 49 destroyed, 523 disabled
Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 301 disabled
Engineers: 23 destroyed, 110 disabled
Guns lost 45 (2 destroyed, 43 disabled)


Assaulting units:
58th Infantry Regiment
4th Ind.Mixed Brigade
7th Ind.Mixed Brigade
13th Ind.Mixed Brigade
8th Ind.Mixed Brigade
32nd Division
6th Ind.Mixed Brigade
34th Division
11th RGC Temp. Division
37th Division
35th Division
36th Division
9th Ind.Mixed Brigade
41st Division
26th Recon Regiment
13th Division
13th Tank Regiment
13th RGC Temp. Division
1st Mortar Battalion
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
11th Army
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion

Defending units:
36th Chinese Corps
77th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
16th Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
47th Chinese Corps
3rd Chinese Corps
95th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
96th Chinese Corps
15th Chinese Base Force
5th War Area
Red Chinese Army
2nd Group Army
4th Group Army
34th Group Army
6th Chinese Base Force
55th Chinese Corps
22nd Group Army
4th Construction Regiment

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [/font]

[fcharton]

Hi Obvert,

I did go for his stack, I wanted to see what happens. This was a calculated risk, for three reasons.

- Part of the KMT troops before Sian had been pushed around since Nanyang (and sometimes Sinyang), and certainly were in very bad shape.
- In my previous game, I had noticed that whereas infantry gets punished for attacking at bad odds, tanks tend to survive better, especially in China (but I have seen the same on Java against Dutch infantry).
- I had two infantry divisions arriving that day, so a defeat would not compromise my position.

Here is the combat report

Ground combat at Sian (83,41)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 3582 troops, 0 guns, 542 vehicles, Assault Value = 1185
Defending force 63501 troops, 389 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1525

Japanese adjusted assault: 147
Allied adjusted defense: 945

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 6 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 124 (7 destroyed, 117 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
459 casualties reported
Squads: 52 destroyed, 56 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 19 (2 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Assaulting units:
10th Tank Regiment
32nd Division
5th Tank Regiment
15th Tank Regiment
3rd Tank Regiment
9th Division
11th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
16th Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
55th Chinese Corps
3rd Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
96th Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Cavalry Corps
Red Chinese Army
2nd Group Army
34th Group Army
15th Chinese Base Force

[obvert]

I completely agree that tanks can do wonders in China. I was thinking more to caution yo against a DA without a lot of preparation through bombing and arty, and without 2 to 1 odds. Even though the tanks are there, and you'll destroy a lot of infantry squads, possibly even breaking through, if you get a 1:2 or less the divisions could take big losses while the tanks simply take disablements.

I learned a lot of things the hard way about combat in China. Like the above, which cost about a month in regeneration and resting.

[fcharton]

February 1st, 1942

Sunk sub

Near Tawi Tawi (one of those forlorn places between Borneo and Mindanao), SS Saury was sunk today by destroyers escorting a convoy to Tarakan. Throughout the game, submarines on both sides managed a decent number of hits on enemy shipping, but ASW was quite unsuccessful. So far, only three Allied submarines are reported sunk, one of them, very doubtfully, by a 250kg bomb…

Surabaya, KB!

Mini-KB, together with land based aircrafts from Balikpapan and Singkawang, raided the port of Surabaya today. Morning attacks were unimpressive, with CL Durban, Sumatra and De Ruyter taking a bomb hit each. In the afternoon, Banshees and Warhawks met my CAP, ten Banshees are reported shot down.

Finally,

Afternoon Air attack on Soerabaja , at 56,104
Weather in hex: Heavy rain
Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 32 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A5M4 Claude x 4
A6M2 Zero x 29
B5N1 Kate x 11
B5N2 Kate x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
C.XI-W: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
SS Seadragon, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
CL De Ruyter, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

Repair Shipyard hits 1
Magazine explodes on CL De Ruyter

As you might remember, CL De Ruyter had collided with another ship during a bombardment mission on Ambon. I suspect she was in the yard when she was sunk. Tracker mentions it as CL Hobart (this is not the first time I see such FOW), and states sunk for unknown causes.

Meanwhile in China

@obvert :
Very much agree with you. Tempo is crucial, in China, and careless attacks can cost weeks to replace casualties or disablement. One thing I have noticed is that whereas slightly damaged divisions (AV over 300) repair in no time, heavy damages (AV below 200) takes forever to mend.

As a rule, it is best to rebuild as many divisions one can (early game replacements allow to rebuild many brigades into full strength divs), and to pull them out of action before they drop under half AV.

This, of course, cuts both ways. Once Chinese are defeated, it is usually useful to chase them and damage them a second (or third) time. This will destroy a lot of disabled squads, and prevent rapid recovery of surviving elements.

China really is an attrition campaign. Once the KMT has lost enough squads, the territory will be easy to conquer. On the contrary, capturing lots of estate, while letting the enemy build huge stacks of undefeated units, is a recipe for long term woes.


We are on the move in Northern China. We are marching on Ningsia (two corps were defeated west of Paotow), chasing units along the Taiyuan Sian railroad, bottling the KMT on the secondary road east of Sian, and moving troops and artillery for the capture of the city (unless the enemy chooses to evacuate).

Meanwhile, Ichang was slowly reinforced, and we tried a first deliberate attack today. This succeeded beyond expectations.

Ground combat at Ichang (83,48)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 64983 troops, 651 guns, 228 vehicles, Assault Value = 2297
Defending force 41921 troops, 268 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1233

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1

Japanese ground losses:
1696 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 160 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled

Allied ground losses:
7084 casualties reported
Squads: 68 destroyed, 220 disabled
Non Combat: 105 destroyed, 100 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 25 disabled
Guns lost 47 (3 destroyed, 44 disabled)
Units retreated 4

Five enemy units remain in the hex. I am unsupplied, and a division will arrive tomorrow. I believe I can destroy a good number of the remaining squads. Then, I can either march north and defeat the four retreated units once more, or march east, and threaten Changsha from the rear.

[fcharton]

February 2nd, 1942

Another sunk sub

A Dutch submarine, by the name of O-20, is reported sunk off Balikpapan. Two ships in two days, life is good! Several more submarines were detected in the area. I am launching lots of ASW task forces, that react to subs, and will eventually sink some.

Another batch of enemy submarines was detected around Singkawang, I will try to hunt them as well. For some reason, the enemy has not tried to stalk my convoys around Japan.

Sian, act II

After a day of rest, we launched a deliberate attack in Sian. My tanks had been reinforced by two infantry divisions, and a large number of artillery units. The enemy had almost 1400 AV, behind level three forts. We only had 1150, yet we reduced one level of fortifications, and achieved 1:1 odds.

Japanese ground losses:
1196 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 96 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 68 (9 destroyed, 59 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2011 casualties reported
Squads: 75 destroyed, 111 disabled
Non Combat: 69 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 21 (2 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Not a great victory, but a victory still.

Disruption is high, I am bombarding tomorrow, and will attack again in a few days.

Production news – factories and stocks

Since my last report, I have increased armament and vehicle production a bit. Vehicle stocks are now stable (on average, I need as many vehicle points as I produce), and armaments are up, from 7500 ten days ago to about 10 000.

As a result, I am using a little more HI every day (7.6k) and saving a little less (7k). But HI stocks are increasing fast. I now have more than 400 000 HI points. This means about 360 000 HI saved in two months. At this rate, I might have 2.7 million HI stocked by the end of 1942. This is a year worth of industry usage. In other words, if I go on producing and spending like I do now, I will have enough HI to finish the game by the beginning of 1944. Let us assume two more years of production.

At 14550 HI/day, this consumes 14550 tons of fuel, or 16160 tons of oil. Over two years, this represents 10.6 million tons of fuel. My current stocks are 6 million tons of fuel (without bunkers) and 4.4 million tons of oil, which would eventually refine into 4 million tons of fuel.

I am producing 9 500 tons of oil per day, which will eventually refine into 8500 tons. Tracker estimates my ship fuel usage at 7 500 tons per day, which means I am saving 1000 tons for production every day. This means I will have enough fuel stocks to finish the war by early 1944, at the current rate of production (that is, without capturing northern Burma, Sumatra or Java).

This confirms previous findings : I don’t really need those oilfields. Or, rather, I can afford to fight over them, and let the enemy damage them during the reconquest, so long it helps delay his march on Japan.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

This confirms previous findings : I don’t really need those oilfields. Or, rather, I can afford to fight over them, and let the enemy damage them during the reconquest, so long it helps delay his march on Japan.

Don't overlook your navy fuel usage. You have to tease this out of tracker, but you can. It is quite huge if the KB in operating. At least 50% of your economy usage and if you have major operations ongoing, it can consume as much as the rest of your economy. Meaning, you need to about double your oil/fuel requirement estimates.

[fcharton]

Hi Pax,

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Don't overlook your navy fuel usage. You have to tease this out of tracker, but you can. It is quite huge if the KB in operating. At least 50% of your economy usage and if you have major operations ongoing, it can consume as much as the rest of your economy. Meaning, you need to about double your oil/fuel requirement estimates.

I don't know if you have the last version of Tracker (1.9). It provides a decent estimate of navy fuel usage (industry module, on the bottom right of the economy chart tab)

Francois

[PaxMondo]

Correct, but your assessment above was not taking that into account.  I think you need every drop of oil and fuel you can scavenge as IJ until '44 when you can take an accurate look.  Only two AAR's have shown a good surplus of fuel in the late game: rader and PzB.  rader due to his conquest in India, PzB due to his ability to park most of his fleet most of the time.  Most other AAR's, the fuel situation is dicey ... they were constantly having to shift thier forces to react to allied moves and this ate up fuel.
 
Just my thoughts ... YMMV.  [;)]

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Correct, but your assessment above was not taking that into account.  I think you need every drop of oil and fuel you can scavenge as IJ until '44 when you can take an accurate look.  Only two AAR's have shown a good surplus of fuel in the late game: rader and PzB.  rader due to his conquest in India, PzB due to his ability to park most of his fleet most of the time.  Most other AAR's, the fuel situation is dicey ... they were constantly having to shift thier forces to react to allied moves and this ate up fuel.

Just my thoughts ... YMMV.  [;)]

In fact PaxMondo .... most AAR's support your position ... Run KB to Colombo raid, run KB to Sydney .. raid .. run KB to Perth raid ..then start running back and forth to counter moves .. mid 43 hits and ..."This game is sooo borked I have no fuel . the economy is crashing ..." [:D]

I gave the same advice to my opponent who was following the above formula [moving back and forth into the Gilberts rather than raiding Oz but same MO] .. he thought it was psyops ..now its Feb '43 .. the economy is crashing .. [;)] I am going to quote you in my AAR as a historical mark .. [8D]

[fcharton]

Hi Pax,

I think the above calculations take current fuel usage into account (7500 tons per day right now, which leaves the 1000 tons a day I need for the industry). If I don't move my ships more than now, the capture of Java and Sumatra will result in a surplus, which can fuel future operations (after I have lost the DEI). But all this revolves around a relatively low fuel usage.

On this, I agree with Crackaces: most JFB oversail their naval forces. It is particularly clear with KB. As a deterrent, KB is just as efficient in port as at sea. I think it was Nemo who once mentioned KB ought to spend about 10% of the war at sea, and the rest in port. I believe this is good advice.

The same applies to planes, by the way. I am getting high operation losses because I persist in having my bombers fly every day, it is a mistake.
But then, it is very difficult to resist using all of one's toys.

Francois

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

Hi Pax,

I think the above calculations take current fuel usage into account (7500 tons per day right now, which leaves the 1000 tons a day I need for the industry). If I don't move my ships more than now, the capture of Java and Sumatra will result in a surplus, which can fuel future operations (after I have lost the DEI). But all this revolves around a relatively low fuel usage.

On this, I agree with Crackaces: most JFB oversail their naval forces. It is particularly clear with KB. As a deterrent, KB is just as efficient in port as at sea. I think it was Nemo who once mentioned KB ought to spend about 10% of the war at sea, and the rest in port. I believe this is good advice.

The same applies to planes, by the way. I am getting high operation losses because I persist in having my bombers fly every day, it is a mistake.
But then, it is very difficult to resist using all of one's toys.

Francois

Francois,

Sorry, I missed the fact you had the naval operational fuel usage in your calcs.

Yes, Nemo said that once and it was really an observation of the historical fact: the IJN did spend most of the war in port to conserve fuel. At least the capital ships did.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

Welcome, gentlereader, to the first big blunder in the war (FBBitW, tm). As you might remember, at the beginning of this game, I had postponed the Wake and Tarawa invasions, just in case my opponent decided to cruise there… As KB is closing on Wake, and no ships were seen in the area, I decided to send them in, but forgot to tell them to “unload”.

In Wake, my task force arrived in the early morning, and waited there, as ordered, until enemy planes sank a merchant cruiser and damaged three light cruisers. With a fragment of an SNLF battalion left on board, the invasion will not happen. I am reembarking the regiment that just took Guam, for a second try, KB supported, this time. Meanwhile, I have split the task force into faster and slower ships, and will try and rush everybody to Kwajalein. With a little luck, I can save most of them.

Welcome to the cruel world of AE. Hopefully, you'll Allied opponent will make this mistake more often than you do. [:D] Don't worry, we all do this.