Hell bent on Lebensraum III (no Kamil)

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

December has come and gone. No time to do the map last turn so I will post screenies and data at end T29, promise. So far so good, only 1 Reg has marched east as POW's. January is upon us, one can almost smell spring in the air. The pundits may note I have not wasted a single AP or soldier on those things called forts. They are for the defeatists.

That depends if you wanted to hold the lines in front of Moscow or not. I built a 40 mile deep line of them just to west of Moscow used the MT divisions as regiments and was able to hold hexes very close to Moscow for coming summer.

I do not use them in south any more also.

We see about defeatist thing if your not able to KO Kamil in 41.

Good luck on your snow offensive, great time to cross the rivers for coming summer O.

Panzer ball in 42 summer, don't make same errors as sapper and bomazz.

[Peltonx]

Also you DV and Flaviusx, were wrong as to SHC easly hitting 5 million by Blizzard- 5.3 million was OOB number.

I do know what I am talking about as I have fought 16 blizzards now.

Kamil will be close to 7 million by spring as I also predicted I believe.

Again good luck.

[Flaviusx]

Pelton, he's not going to have 7 million come May. 6 and change, just as I have been saying all along. The end of year reinforcements are come and gone, and now he can only grow by virtue of his manpower production, and that won't be very high going into the new year. Nothing has changed here, I made a generous allowance for this.

Do the numbers yourself: 100k/turn - attrition - losses. Simple math. If he averages a net 50k per turn from here to May he should about a million more men than now. Once clear weather hits he'll be lucky to grow at all, or even snow turns.

[Michael T]

End Axis T29 (1st Jan 1942) Blizzard

As above so far only 1 INF Reg has been lost as POW's. But still a long way to go. I have had to give up more ground than at first anticipated but resistance should start to stiffen from now on. Nothing has been sent to Germany and all units are available for the defence. Some high morale units are resting in the rear though, but close enough in case of an emergency.

Quite a number of successful CA’s this turn against lead Red Armour and Cav units around Liptesk. Anything to inflict losses on Ivan.

Kamil has emerged from the Crimea with a token gesture. If they stray too far I will send in the head kickers and bag a bunch of POW’s.

I intend to hold Voronezh and a line around midway between Vyazma and Moscow. My main territorial concern is the area between Kaluga and Liptesk. Most new troops will probably feed in to this region. But he will soon start to feel the effects of lengthening supply lines, This will be one of the penalties for running so far and allowing me to trash his rail net.

With January I am hopeful we may start to see some more hold results for the Reds. So far there have been very few. I hope Kamil will bleed his Army at a faster rate hitherto. His ARM and MP situation cannot be that healthy so I am not displeased when I see him losing 1000's even if I am losing 1000's as well. His OOB is still only around 5.6m and Germany’s dipped to 3.15m but rose last turn to 3.21m. So hopefully it is now on the up an up or at least stable.

I estimate his total gains from MP centres to be a little less than 85K per turn, plus returns from the disabled pool. So maybe 90K, no more.

My main concern for the summer is my morale losses. I expect most INF will be down to around 55-60 come the snow. Getting them back to 70 odd will be difficult. No 101 morale bonus in this game. I am a little concerned about Soviet morale in 1942. I have Rumanians with morale of 58 in the rear.


But things are not too bad and plans are afoot for a resumption of what will hopefully be the final campaign that will dismember the Soviet Union in 1942.

[Peltonx]

Part of your morale losses are from the units in poor supply during the mud they then get hit with a 2x per turn bad supply + Blizzard -1.

The key as always from to 10/42 - 6/45 is infantry morale not panzer morale.

This game you might be able to KO Kamil in 42, but if you do not you will get a draw. Its not that hard for SHC(even in Kamils poor shape) to brake GHC lines in mid 44 then get to the needed VP's for a draw. GHC army falls apart very quickly starting in mid 43, unless you got very good morale.

The issue for you in 42 is poor infantry morale which means they can't help crack lines and panzers have to do it all. GHC will not be rolling over SHC units in 42, panzers get ground down very quickly in 42.

That's why its so important to take the 12 best infantry units and put them under cover. They can blow through the first 2 lines of defenses NP then panzers smoke through the next 1 - 3 lines.

Your skills will be put to the test early. Moscow is close, but will require allot of loses to get to and still you be far from the needed VP's.

Good luck.

[Michael T]

It's easy to save high morale units if you just run and don't fight. But I am putting up resistance for two reason. Firstly, its just instinct to fight and more fun than running. But secondly, and most importantly in the context of this game is that we are playing under Sudden Death condtions. If I run I will lose. So I must make a stand.

I play the game for fun and to challenge my ability to concoct winning strategies. If I go down because I made a stand in the blizzard so be it. I would rather lose becasue I tried to win than play out a boring 212 turns trying to get a draw from T1. Thats not why I play.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

It's easy to save high morale units if you just run and don't fight. But I am putting up resistance for two reason. Firstly, its just instinct to fight and more fun than running. But secondly, and most importantly in the context of this game is that we are playing under Sudden Death condtions. If I run I will lose. So I must make a stand.

I play the game for fun and to challenge my ability to concoct winning strategies. If I go down because I made a stand in the blizzard so be it. I would rather lose becasue I tried to win than play out a boring 212 turns trying to get a draw from T1. Thats not why I play.

One mans junk is another mans treasure.

One mans boredom is another mans fun.

Is the glass 1/2 full or 1/2 empty?

I might think the glass is 1/2 full and you might say it is 1/2 empty.


Its all how we look at things.

[Michael T]

End Axis T31 (15th Jan 1942) Blizzard

The fighting has intensified in front of Moscow, Voronezh and Stalino. Everywhere else nothing can stand. I hoped to hold Kaluga and Voronezh but it is becoming unlikely. The hoped for extra hold results in January have not materialised. I just want it to end. Roll on February.

[Flaviusx]

Pity about Voronezh, but I think you're doing very well here. Only two more weeks until February. Then you can think about standing your ground for real. He's made no real progress near Moscow, imo. You're still east of Rzhev and Vyazma. Down south he's almost certainly going to come up short of Stalino.

If you can take Voronezh back in March...

You really want a bridgehead over the Don. With such a starting position going into clear weather it's going to be hell for the Soviet. I don't care how badly the blizzard knocked up your morale, defending in the middle of the map in open steppe is no joke for the Soviet. He's not going to get a chance to dig in much, either, is my guess. He isn't terribly strong in the area, even, most of his stuff is near Moscow and Rostov near as I can tell. You can crack that front wide open and then what does the Soviet do with the Red Army divided in two and with communications between the parts compromised?

Look at his rails...I bet the stuff you trashed is still mostly trashed and his rail lines are struggling to get caught up in the center especially. That advance is going to be hurting once blizzard turns to snow and you ought to get a splendid opportunity to counterattack.

[Michael T]

When I step back and look from the outside I agree things are not too bad. But when you are in the thick of it and see 75 wins v 1 hold over two turns its a bloody tough road to walk and it takes a real effort to overcome the panic and flee reflex. Demoralising to say the least. The run away strategy is certainly the easier path. To make a fight of it requires the total commitment of the Axis forces available. Anything less is foolish. To be sure we are both bleeding, certainly me more than him. But he must be hurting too losses wise. Just finished T32 and his OOB is 5.74m

[Michael T]

End Axis T33 (29th Jan 1942) Blizzard

Thank goodness February is upon us. The Reds are still pushing hard. We had a hold result this turn so reason for celebration in Berlin. Fighting is intense between Rhzev and Kaluga. Also around Voronezh. A horde of Soviet Tank X threaten to sweep around the rear of our lines to the south of Voronezh but the Panzer reserves make short work of them. Every unit I can spare is being railed in to this area. Will the battle of Voronezh be a glorious defensive victory or an early Stalingrad?

Curiously the Soviet OOB went down last turn. Could his losses in ARM be finally being felt?

[Flaviusx]

His attrition might be picking up now as more of his army is in constant contact with your own. You can cause 25-30k losses a turn on the Red Army from 42 by attrition alone. Hug him. His replacement situation cannot be good, and between attrition and combat losses you can keep him from growing much.

I'm really happy you chose to do something different here and fight it out during the first winter, btw. The blizzard obviously needs a redesign, but it is refreshing to see this sort of thing. Too much damned running in this game.

[Michael T]

There are a lot of things I would do different to some of the more prolific players around here. I hate all the running as well. Its unneccesary if you have a little tactical skill and are prepared to dance with the devil rather than count hexes to Berlin.

[Michael T]

I have completed T34 (5th Feb 1942).

A swarm of Soviet Tank brigades were trying to hook around the southern approaches to Voronezh. The Pz/Mot reserves were once again thrown at the hordes and routed around 10 brigades and restored the position. A slugfest has developed on the northern approaches to Voronezh and the timely arrival of a Mtn XX is holding sway ATM, but who knows for how long.

Several new crisis areas have developed. Kaluga has been squeezed and we have to give it up. It may also take an ID with it that can't escape. A Soviet lunge toward Bryansk threatens our vital north-south rail link. Also a huge gap has opened up between Belograd and the northern shoulder of the Stalino defence line. I had hoped to fill this gap but the units earmarked for that purpose have been swallowed up in the Voronezh battles. Kharkov is now under threat. In two turns another swarm of Tank brigades will arrive on its doorstep. Hopefully fresh ID arriving from Germany can form some kind of defence.

At this point the Reds show no sign of slowing up or backing of in February.

These Soviet Tank brigades are a damn nuisance.

[Flaviusx]

On the upside, these easy wins against his tank ants will help your morale get back up.

This is the most exciting blizzard I have seen in any game. It's on the knife's edge. If you pull it off you could really hurt Kamil here, but by the same token your decision to hang on to Voronezh is very risky. I think you can do it, but it's gonna be close.

Far more interesting than the usual blizzard and also far closer in spirit to the kind of battles that happened in real life in AGC. Although here the crisis has arisen further south. (AGC is basically stabilized.)

[Michael T]

Yes, very exciting and a lot of fun. But also severely nerve wracking

Still waiting on Kamil's first February turn. I imagine he is contemplating whether to keep pushing or wind it down.

I had to strip the South to hold him up in the Centre. The South is now paying the price. Germans won't be popular in Rumania. Rumanian casualties have been horrific.

[Michael T]

End Axis T35 (12th Feb 1942) Blizzard

The bloodbath continues. The Red assault shows no sign of abatement. However the Reds are shifting troops from the Moscow front to the Voronezh Front, or at least so it seems. Kamil is deploying a carpet of troops around Voronezh.

Apart from Voronezh, my concern now is for Stalino. The Reds are pushing hard on the flanks especially to the south of the tri cities, perhaps to link with the Crimea Army. The timely arrival of fresh troops from Germany is helping but March can't come soon enough.

So far still only 1.33 German XX lost plus a Cav X. Plus a couple of Rumanian ID. But I am taking a battering, and the morale of most ID is low 60's. Some as low as 54. Most Pz/Mot between 75 and 80. I am not sure what kind of Snow offensive can be thrown together, if at all. The Axis have been bloodied, battered and bruised, but so have the Reds to a degree. His OOB is still around 5.72m. He has a ton of Guards though. So he will have a nice core of high quality ID for Corp conversion.

My Slovakian mobile X has finally converted to a XX hip hip hooray....

[hugh04]

What a gap in the line south of voronezh to stalino. Looks like you really are not going to hold this area. I recently finished a blizzard, and, as axis, fought very hard. Axis infantry is likely in the 3 cv area. If you can bring them off the line and refit till toe gets in the 90 area, you can recover to 6-7 area cv. Blizzard ends, but without a fortified line the russian can still attack. While you can counterattack, axis still suffers a 50% cv penalty. Your lines are so open that counterattacking penetrations may be your only option. Even so, stability will be a challenge. Mud won't even help if lines are not continous as soviet will just infiltrate. This AAR is likely to remain very interesting.

Vandev

[Michael T]

I prefer a mobile fight to trench warfare any day [:)]

[mktours]

I use the Slovakian mobile X to garrison Kiev and it turn to XX in T9 in one game,[:)]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

End Axis T35 (12th Feb 1942) Blizzard

The bloodbath continues. The Red assault shows no sign of abatement. However the Reds are shifting troops from the Moscow front to the Voronezh Front, or at least so it seems. Kamil is deploying a carpet of troops around Voronezh.

Apart from Voronezh, my concern now is for Stalino. The Reds are pushing hard on the flanks especially to the south of the tri cities, perhaps to link with the Crimea Army. The timely arrival of fresh troops from Germany is helping but March can't come soon enough.

So far still only 1.33 German XX lost plus a Cav X. Plus a couple of Rumanian ID. But I am taking a battering, and the morale of most ID is low 60's. Some as low as 54. Most Pz/Mot between 75 and 80. I am not sure what kind of Snow offensive can be thrown together, if at all. The Axis have been bloodied, battered and bruised, but so have the Reds to a degree. His OOB is still around 5.72m. He has a ton of Guards though. So he will have a nice core of high quality ID for Corp conversion.

My Slovakian mobile X has finally converted to a XX hip hip hooray....