ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.
Rasmus .
Sorry for stating the obvious, but mktours did not reach kiev on 26th .
on 26 june he starts at Novogorod Volnsky .
on 3th july he starts at Kiev.
In all fairness, you must admit that there is nothing spectacular about turn 2, becuse 13th panzer did cover the distance from Novogorod Volnsky to Kiev in less than 5 days.
turn 1 when he destroyed practicaly the best mechanised corps in the ukraine is the isuee here.
As said it depence on what dates u use. It isnt as simple as the 25th vs 3rd july tho. The inherit problem of IGO-UGO is that it might be the germans at Kiev at the end of the german 26th June-3rd july turn, sure. Problem is that doesnt count in the fact that the russian side has only had 1 move. The 22th-25th first turn. They have no other option to move or react by the time the germans are in Kiev on the end of their 2nd turn. They still only have had their first turn until the the 26th june to respond/react/move to so stop such a move. So for all intend and purposes its still the 26th june from their POV. So neither 26th or 3rd is a real answers but some quasi time in between.
A first turn where they btw are limited to the reponces tho certain supprise rules concerning the first turn.
Non the less if one is to apply that logic that one uses the end dates of turns as a mesasure stick. 19 days from the above post isnt correct. Its 26 days then. As apart from recce parties the 11th july we into turn 5 now as the 4th is turn starts on 10 july and as majority parts was still held up at the 10th july by the Korosten counterattack some 10'ish hexes from Kiev the germans wouldnt be able to be near Kiev in any sigificant force until end of turn 4/start of turn 5 aka 17th july. Some 26 days into the campaign.
So the math doenst change much.
Marquo clearly made some mistakes as i said as recently as a few days ago in another ARR, u always always always garrison ur cities/prodcution center. So lets say Mk wasnt able to get Kiev as he shouldnt be able too if not for that fault. Actually u then at a more comparible outcome as Kiev didnt fall on the 11th july. This isnt the first time an advance to Kiev in turn 2 is seen and with the frankly limted ability in turn 1 to react i'd say any one with some skills can get there or very close by turn 2, cuz what u can do to react as russian is limited in turn 1 coupled with the movement abilties of the german side. Not necesarrily saying its the best thing to do but there just isnt much to stop it with if the german choose to go that route.
So its a question of looking at the whole. Is what the german are able to advance and here turn 2 is a direct link of what happens in turn 1 within the first 2 turns with in what u can plausibily expect. Could the germans by end of turn 1 make it to the rumeanian border or to Kiev by turn 2. No, not even with extra forces. Again looking at the war diaries of the korps involved those first days are packed with information on how the korps wasnt even able to deploy its own forces. If 2 korps cant 4 certainly cant either as it would have taken even more room. Ppl make it to rumenia blind folded if the so wish in the first 4 days when They had barely moved more than a few hexes across the border.
Is turn 1 "worse" seen from a plasubility PoV than turn 2, sure. One creates the other tho. It toke longer to overcome the the initial russian forces and counter attacks historicly than turn 1. So they still there to be dealth with in turn 2 and u couldnt just "drive". In that sense the turn 2 is far from plausible. Clearly, had there not been any russian forces there then the advance in it self wasnt spectacular. Its just that it wasnt possible as they still batteling at the time of a larger part of turn 2. Not to mention its "free" as a result of the IGO-UGO in terms of russian possible responces.
Had this been a one in 10 chance no big deal. Problem is its automatic. I never seen, not that u couldnt if u wanted too, any AAR that replicate the historic or close too advances on those first turns in the AGS area. Its pretty much tho with varying degree going much better to extremly much better. The possibility of it actually going better for the russian side isnt even an option. Why do russians run after this. Do they have any other option?
Any how my main point is that the terrain excuse is had no leg to stand on. As explained in the my first post in this thread. It really couldnt have gone much better than it did in those first turns time as the germans them self explain in the war diaries of those pz korps involved. Less given some magic wand expelling the issues of friction within the germans them self not to mention the russian troops, the dept of their defence and 5000ish tanks, that couldnt just be bypassed as they activly moved in the way. Nor would extra forces from AGC has helped in those early days as they had no room to deploy in. It was alrdy an huge issues for the forces invovled.
It baffles me how going far beyond the historicly plaussible in the AGS raises no eyebrows or that many. If the same pace of advance had been multiplied in AGC/AGN it sure would have.
Again i have no problem with ppl doing better than historic or taken otehr avenues of approches. I appluad that. It just have to be within limits of the plausible and as said we cant even disucss it going better for the russians in this case. The doing better is only possible in this partilcular case for one of the sides.
Kind regards,
Rasmus
