Better late than never (Lowpe (J) vs tiemanj (A))

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj
CENTPAC
Still no sign of the KB - I'm guessing they are upgrading.

Of course as soon as I say this, I see this:




Is it what it says, or something more. Hmmmm?

[tiemanjw]

April 26, 1943

Not much of an update, as there is not too much happening (and I'm typing this on my phone).

The CV sighting in the Marshalls turns into nothing. All action over the past few days is in Burma.

Yesterday, he got a good jab in on me, and I got one back on him. His success. He went nearly all out on Chittagong. My merger CAP buckled under the strain, and he got about 27 transports (and damaged many more). Plus flattened the airfield. This hurts, as the 32nd just arrived and is awaiting air transport south. He also sunk or damaged (too much use in the near future) 4 xAKs mustering to move the divisions 105s and motorized support south. So now I'll strip a few training wings of their transports for a week while I move troops south. Canadian fighters will be arriving soon to protect them.

As for my jab, several xAKs came full of supplies, so I sent them to Akyab. Here I protected them with good CAP. I got 2 dozen DBs (Lilys?) and a dozen Nicks for 2 Wildcats. They have been pestering my supply convoys of late. Good riddance.

So what now? He has 2 options I think.
1) he can double down and strike again, or
2) he can flee to prevent me from bringing down the hammer

I think he does (2). I'll move any useful targets away to guard against (1). Nashville is repairing at Calcutta... I can't do anything about that. I also.have ships unloading at Akyab. I'll move more CAP there (including USMC F4s). But the main event is an air strike. Not against central Burma... I think he flees there. I'm hoping he goes to moulmein. Several bombers were damaged at Chittagong, so they can't fly out. Hopefully he goes to moulmein at the end of the rail.head. I'd give it 1 chance in 3 (total SWAG), but if he does, his AF will be hurting for sometime.

[tiemanjw]

4/30/1943


Burma

Chittagong is back in business. The remainder of the 43rd ID is being flown to Bassein - followed by the 32nd ID and the 5th Indian Div (currently leaving Karachi). 2 Armor Bns are on the coast road heading south. 20 xAKs have assembled in Chittagong (naval elements are enroute for escort) to carry the division's heavy equipment to Rangoon.

In the air - the Moulmein raid didn't fly... not 1 A/C. This was good news though, as he ran to central Thailand. So I still have this option as a surprise if / when he tries again.


Northern Oz

It seems his willingness to defend this desolate desert is about as much as mine was. Daily Waters and Katherine both fell without a fight. The armor regiment that was at Daily Waters though is hounded by A/C and I hope to have it pinned down and destroyed soon. I am now in an operational pause to let the 7th Aussie Div catch up before pushing on Darwin. So far supplies are holding out, but it is very slow moving supplies up through the desert.


Marshall Islands

A small pickup in activity. A few days ago a bombardment TF heading to Nauru runs into a pair of PBs escorting a pair of XAKLs with predictable results. Laffey and Bagley frustratingly avoid an xAK escorted by an E boat for 2 days. Finally this turn, the DDs catch them at Wotje. He flew in fighters to both bases - I'm assuming to discourage air attack. Sweeps by wildcats went 15 to 10 in the air (with another 4 wildcats lost to ops. The remainder of his fighters scattered off somewhere.

[tiemanjw]

An [over]analysis of the sub war to date

Turns were a bit slow this weekend, so I spent waaaaaaay toooooo much time going over a history of the sub war and
pilot training. I'll detail my thoughts on fighter pilot training at a later date (short answer, USA is on track -
everyone else, especially USN, is hopelessly behind).



Sub War
I have cataloged every [allied] sub attack in the war to date - 1570 in total. Plowing through combat reports, one
can get ship, attack profile (surfaced or submerged), target, target classification, torpedoes fired (with submerged
profiles), hits, effect, success / failure of counterattack, and with a few databases; water depth and target tonnage.

If this isn't enough, starting in mid Sept '42 I started daily exports of the tracker leader, ship, and TF pages.
This allows for tracking each boats commander (and stats), experience, detection levels, and [indirectly] radar (using
ship class) prior to and after each attack. There are 564 attacks that have occurred with this data.

Of course with this much data, one can spend months going through it. I looked at a few things that amount to little
more than scratching the surface. I [think I] found a few things that are completely un-surprising, and a few that are
not so obvious - at least not to me.


The goal of this exercise is to find out what is working, and what is not working in the sub war. Lowpe is much
better at protecting his convoys compared to the AI. He seems to try to stay close to the shore, changes his convoy
routes, moves his ASW A/C to places that are troublesome, and NEVER seems to have unescorted TFs.
I am using my subs as strategic weapons mostly - targeting his supply lines as opposed to hunting combat ships or
blockading / scouting operational zones. I do have a few doing this work, but mostly I want to shut off his oil. To
counter his tactics I typically:
a) use radio intercepts and a general knowledge of where the oil must come from / go to figure out where his supply
lines might be.
b) send a small number of subs to "scout" these potential routes.
c) once a route is identified, flood the zone with a large number of subs. If no routes are identified, flood a
suspected zone (based on (a)) with subs



So, some of the numbers that are mildly interesting:
Number of Attacks: 1570
Number of surface attacks: 22 (I said he never goes anywhere without escorts)
Avg Tonnage / attack: 3364
Torps launched: 2248
Torps hit: 232 (two hundred and thirty-freakin'-two). That’s a lousy 10.3% hit rate. Those Mk14s suck!

Torps/ton*1000: 1.0715. This is trying to measure how many torpedoes are fired at a target, allowing for target size
(it is ok to spend 6 fish on a battleship, but not on a 99 ton sub chaser).
I subjectively looked at this number, and it seems that a "good" value is between .5 and 1.5. Lower values seem to
make me scratch my head and ask the captain why he just wants to damage his target. For example, Finback shot at a
6475 ton xAK (a big one) with 2 fish. He even got a hit - but there was not reported damage or fire to the ship. She
will undouble survive. So I subjectively looked again to see if it correlated with anything. It seems that more
aggressive commanders like to fire fewer fish. Frustrating.



But I'm trying to figure out how to better employ my subs (and commanders). So I looked a lot at 2 things. I want to
see how much detection level (DL) and water depth affect attacks and survival level. It is here that I found a few
somewhat surprising things.

First, a few definitions:
High DL - detection level prior to attack > 0
Low DL - detection level prior to attack = 0
success - attack that results in a torpedo detonating against the hull of a target vessel
failure - attack that scores no torpedo hits
attack - any action involving a SS. Note this includes ASW attacks as well.

Escort - escort ship, strictly DD, DE, TB, E, PG, PF, KV, PC, PB, SC, DM, DMS, AM, AVD, APD, ACM, YMS
Merchant - merchant ship, including tankers, cargo, tenders, and amphibs
Capital ship - carriers, battleships, and cruisers (including CS)
small craft - one of the many small craft classes such as PT, HDML (I don't feel like listing them all)

failed search - a combat report line of "XX fails to find sub" where XX is the name of an escort
ASW Attacks - a combat report line of "XX attacking submerged sub"
DC Hits - number of hits reported on the sub that can't be attributed to shells or torpedoes. Most if not all of these
are depth charge hits



Interesting, DL does not appear to affect the success or failure of an attack. It also doesn't make much difference
in the effectiveness of the counterattack (counterattacks were slightly more effective in low DL attacks). That said,
here were many more Low DL attacks than high DL attacks (371 vs 193). Moreover, low DL attacks tended to attack
bigger and better ships more often.

The High DL tons / attack = 3205, while low DL tons / attack = 4050.
High DL attacks went after an escort 72% of the time (22% merchant, 6% capital ships)
Low DL attacks, on the other hand, were 55% escort, 38% merchant, 7% capital ship)

High (low) DL fail search / attack: 4.5 (4.4)
High (low) DL ASW attack / attack: .41 (.48)
High (low) DL DC Hits / attack: .676 (.687)

High (low) DL success rate: 14.1% (16.5%)


So this doesn't change the fact you should try to minimize your SS DL when attacking - but rather the reason why. Your
attack won't be more successful, but you will get more attacks against juicier targets.



As for water depth: A player trying to avoid subs will often head for the shallows. The corollary to that is if you
want to attack these targets, you need to go into the shallows. But is it worth it? I say it is, if you choose the
right skipper. But what to look for in a skipper?

For deep / shallow water attacks, I looked at all 1570 attacks to date (1007 deep, 563 shallow).

For the most part, shallow and deep water make no difference, except in one important stat. See if you can pick it
out:
Deep (shallow) success rate: 13.1% (12.3%)
Deep (shallow) fail search / attack: 4.5 (4.3)
Deep (shallow) ASW attack / attack: .41 (.44)
Deep (shallow) DC Hits / attack: .23 (1.2)

Wow! On average, I'll eat 1 DC for every 5 deep water attacks. I'll take over 1 DC for every shallow attack.
(disclaimer: this includes all attacks up to the end of April '43. For a good portion of the time, the Japanese DCs
explode too shallow. They will soon correct this - thanks a lot May)

So how do you survive in shallow water? High nav?
Well:
shallow DC hits / attack(nav+70): 1.17 - nope not really good enough.
Low aggression?
shallow DC hits / attack(agg-70): 1.12 - still doesn't help us. Crappy skippers are just that. Crappy.
How about those few guys good at driving their boats, but don't over expose themselves:
shallow DC hits / attack(nav+70, agg-70): .34
There we go! That DC hit rate is just above the deep water rate. As a small bonus, there success rate goes up to
16.6%.

So, an effective shallow water boat driver should have high naval skill (over 70), and low aggression (under 70). Yes
low aggression. The high aggression skippers tend to get themselves into trouble, and they need depth to get out of
it. Fine for deep water attacks, but not so much if you want to creep up on the shallows. (note: I did not look at
skippers with crazy high nav / high aggression skills. Dick O'Kane hasn't arrived yet - Morton's record is short as
he is spending most of his time in the yards... from depth charges, go figure).


Data attached. Note that the file is a zip file. Change the extension to .zip in order to read it.

[Mike McCreery]

Thanks!

[tiemanjw]

5/2/1943

Burma
C47s are the business of the day. 43rd ID has one more day of transport, and all (except the 105s and motorized support) will be in Bassein by tomorrow evening. The 32nd ID is next on the list - some groups have started transporting them. 2 jungle gun Bns have also been transported to provide some arty support for the coming offensive.

Noticing radio intercepts at Pisanuloke last turn, I sent a 12 man blitz only to find out it was a 4'o clock game. Oh well - at least it gives him something to think about, and prevents him from using it as a staging base. I'll blast Magwe tomorrow to prevent him from using it for bombers, than go back to my regularly scheduled Prome drops.

Pilot Training, part 1
For a little while now, I've been proud of my USA pilot training program. Of course, I have no real idea how many I need - it just seemed like I had a lot (around 1300), with good experience - 46 80+, a few hundred 70+, about 3/4 60+). But is that enough for the coming years?

So I went through and counted the number of A/C I will get from here on out. Since army fighter A/C production changes over nearly entirely in the summer of '43 - I added up all the A/C I would get from these production runs. The total number is about 10,500. In addition, I wanted to know what my "casualty rate" has been. Casualty rate is the % change a pilot is KIA, WIA, or MIA once his A/C is lost. Losses include Air, Flak, and Ops losses (ground losses have been excluded). To date I have lost 1385 USA fighters, and 273 USA pilots. For a [seemingly low] causality rate of just under 20%. This seems a little low to me - perhaps it is due to the fact that my USA pilots, until now, have been flying mostly CAP missions close to friendly bases. I assume this rate will go up as I go on the offensive, so for figuring out the number of pilots I will need, I'll assume my rate goes up to 40% (in line with USN and USMC numbers).

So I will get 10,500 A/C over the next 3 years. For planning purposes, let’s assume that I will use all of these A/C (either they get lost or they replace losses and at the end of the war I have 0 A/C in my pools). To make the math simple, I will just apply the causality rate of 40% to that number, and assume I need 4200 pilots to fly these A/C.

Now, it appears to me (subjectively - more on this later) that it takes about 5 months to get pilots through my training syllabus (4 months to get to about 50 exp, 70 air, 60+ def and 1 month of rear area CAP missions to get exp to 60). Further, I can have about 125% pilots to A/C ratio in these squadrons. So my training rate is 4 A/C can train 5 pilots in 5 months. Or 1 A/C can train .25 pilots in 1 month. I estimate I have 36 months left until the summer of '46 (again to make the math easier). This comes out to needing 465 A/C to train 4200 pilots in 36 months. This is the good news - I have just a bit shy of 400 A/C doing training right now. If I add in the restricted A-36 squadrons I am just now getting (I'll change them to P40Ks as newer models start coming off the line in July) I'll be up to the target number.

I know this isn't a thorough analysis - a true bean counter can pick this apart with ease. But it is a starting point to gauge pilot production.

Now, the USA appears to be ok. The USN is dreadfully behind. The USN will get 15,500 fighters over the next 3 years. Considering that both USN and USMC draw from the same pools, I will add their pilots together. With an expected (and currently observed) causality rate of 40%, I will need 6200 pilots - and 688 A/C training pilots. The USMC is doing their part - with about 200 A/C training pilots. The USN though only has about 100 producing pilots. I really need to boost this number by about 300 or so. I found about 150 (Seagulls) training patrol and recon pilots that I can afford to switch over to "sweep" training. That should be a good start, but I really need to find a few squadrons I can pull off the lines and start training pilots.



Now as to the question, how quickly can you train a pilot? I said I used 5 months, but that is just a SWAG. And can I do things to make this go quicker? I don't know. So I looked to San Francisco. I have 6 training groups there. I decided to set each up differently, and see who trains the quickest:

328/444th FS
My control squadron. This squadron is led by career officer COL McDaniel. COL McDaniel doesn't have much skill or experience either flying A/C or leading men. He got the job because there was no place else to put him (he was the default leader for this squadron). This leaders / groups ratings:
48 LDR
52 Insp
36 Air
49 Admin
56 Aggr

26 Avg Exp
26 Avg Air
26 Avg Defense

328/326th FS
Experiment 1. MAJ Cullen has been brought back from the front after his 11th kill. He has 81 Exp and 70 Air skill. He wants to just return to the front, but has been told the war effort needs him to train 100 MAJ Cullens before he can return. He rises to the challenge, and has put his full energies into the work. As it turns out he is an excellent instructor as well as motivator. He hopes to use this gig to catapult him into command of a combat squadron.
78 LDR
88 Insp
50 Air
64 Admin
45 Aggr

26 Avg Exp
27 Avg Air
26 Avg Def

328/327th FS
Experiment 2. 1LT Holt, a former wingman of MAJ Cullen, has also been brought back to train new pilots. The Army wants to know though, do 5 Aces make for quicker instruction than 1? 1LT Holt's leader ratings are very close to MAJ Cullen, but he has the luxury of having 4 additional instructors with experience over 80 helping him. This squadron's instructors have combined for 55 kills in 900 missions over Burma. Will this translate into faster recruit production? Time will tell. (Note this group has higher average values because these 5 instructors are affecting the averages)
78 LDR
88 Insp
50 Air
47 Admin
49 Aggr

33 Avg Exp
31 Avg Air
31 Avg Def

328/329th FS
Experiment 3. LTC Donohew has a solid rep as a leader. His skills are well balanced. However, he has little experience to date - fighting the war from Washington so far. He has lobbied to get a combat billet, but instead has been given a training squadron in the states. Like MAJ Cullen, he hopes to get a combat command someday. Unlike the rest of the instructors so far, LTC Donohew has no flying experience, and does not fly. He is an administrative leader only.
64 LDR
66 Insp
65 Air
58 Admin
61 Aggr

25 Avg Exp
25 Avg Air
25 Avg Def

329/330th
Experiment 4. All of the other squadrons have a full TO&E of 25 P39s. This group (and the next) have only 12 of 25 A/C - all aging P38Es. This group is led by the LTC Morrissey. He is a career officer, not unlike COL McDaniel. Despite his lack of airframes for training, he has been given access to classrooms and Link Trainers. Washington expects him to produce. I do not. Time will tell.
49 LDR
44 Insp
43 Air
42 Admin
49 Aggr

26 Avg Exp
26 Avg Air
24 Avg Def

329/332nd
Experiment 5. This squadron is the same as the 329/330th, except it has an experienced combat pilot as its leader. 1LT Degraffenreid has 7 kills in 307 missions over Burma before being sent back to the states as a flight instructor. He leads a group of trainees with only 12 airframes to train them with.
78 LDR
78 Insp
45 Air
68 Admin
37 Aggr

25 Avg Exp
25 Avg Air
24 Avg Def


I'll be checking in on these groups from time to time over the next few months and report back what happens.

[tiemanjw]

May 8, 1943

Not much time for an update, and not much going on. Just this:


It doesn't look like much, but when the cats saw it, I got the "enemy carriers" sound effect. Maybe...

I cleared the Gilberts for action - bombers and transports to Pago Pago and Canton Island. Fighters consolidated in Tarawa and Tabiteuea to protect my ships in port there. More fighters are sent to Abemama to provide LRCAP for CVs, which are sortieing to the highlighted hex - outfitted as described in post 54. DDs will fan out in front, including an attack on any TF in Nauru.
If it is just some puny resupply convoy, the DDs should get him. Even if they don't, the CVs will stop 7 hexs away - and the range for the bombers is set to 6 to prevent giving away the surprise. If it is a CVTF trying to hit one of my staging points in the Gilberts, we should be in for a bit of fun.


In other news:
The 32nd if finished lifting to Bassein. The 5th Indian division has started airlifting. Heavy equipment from the 32nd and 41st is loading on ships at Chittagong. Some DDs and a few small CLs are coming to meet the TF to escort them to Rangoon.
The bad news is, he has spotted my build up at Bassein. I don't know what he knows - maybe he suspects the worst, or maybe he just thinks its the engineers that have walked from Prome to Bassein to build up the base. I'm suspecting the former. The hexes on the road in the jungle used to have 1 to 2 units. They now have 5 to 6. So I will need to do some scouting to see if I can find a week point.

In the air, he executed a daring raid with 6 Emily's on Madras. They hit Ramillies and 2 cruisers. Little damage, but now he knows they are there.
I have leveled the Magwe and Pegu airfields. For the last 2 days I've tried hitting Moulmein, but the bombers just won't go. I'll try again tomorrow. I really want his bomber bases leveled, and his scouts as blind as I can make them before the ships sail south.

[tiemanjw]

5/9/1943

It turns out to be a large SAG near the Gilberts. Leading DDs Bagley and Laffey take on Haruna and company. They score 3 pop gun hits on her and a torpedo (a dud, of course), then beat a very brave retreat. (Which is why I put Moosbrugger there, and not Burke). His TF turns around and starts heading toward Truk.
I'm not sure what happened here. I don't know if he was moving in for a bombardment, but got spooked by a pair of DDs, or if his SAG reacted into mine.
What next? He has a DL of 3 on my CVEs, and he sees the screening DD groups. He knows I came out to play, and he needs to be careful. I'll retreat south about 4 hexes and see what he does next.

In Burma, the mission to level Moulmein still does not fly. 3 days now. People will be getting fired soon if that base continues to exist.

[Mike McCreery]

Tiemanj

I am not sure if it would help or not but I heard Mr. Kane put the group leaders on reserve so they didnt get killed. I am not sure how many losses that training groups face but it wouldnt hurt to maybe test whether having the leader on reserve changes the training times at all and/or prevents losses of good leaders while training.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Tiemanj

I am not sure if it would help or not but I heard Mr. Kane put the group leaders on reserve so they didnt get killed. I am not sure how many losses that training groups face but it wouldnt hurt to maybe test whether having the leader on reserve changes the training times at all and/or prevents losses of good leaders while training.

I keep the experienced pilots in my training groups in group reserve... Mostly so that the airframes a used by the trainees. Not sure if it makes a difference. After this round of experiments, I'll try some others. I'm sure Cullens would love to get in the air more.

[tiemanjw]

maybe tomorrow...

One of my CV groups is the big boys (Yorktown, Hornet, Wasp, HMS Victorious), the other is 7 CVEs. He has a DL of 3/3 on the CVEs - nothing on the CVs.

[tiemanjw]

5/22/1943

Long time, no update. Sorry. After the above teaser picture, there was about 2 weeks of... nothing. His CVs disappeared - spotted a few days later at Kavieng - then gone. I have had no idea where they are. Than 2 days ago, a sigint hit about "a CV ... heading to Cam Rah Bay". I have no idea what this means. Is he going to shut down my rat line into Burma? If so, he will be too late. Is he going to reinforce his air units there? Time will tell.

After the 2 weeks of nothing, activity exploded in the last 2 days. First, what may have been the largest air battle in the war to date happens over Akyab. Second, Ailinglaplap was overran. I'll deal with these in separate posts. But now for something completely different.


Sub War
I want to hit him where it might hurt the most - Palembang. After looking at past sub results, I loaded up about 10 boats with skippers that fit the mold for shallow water survivors (70+ naval, 70- aggression), and surged them to the Palembang area. Results - mixed. I got 1 tanker and 2 large xAKs. I didn't lose a sub (except for Tautog that was transiting through the area on "direct" and swept 2 mines out of Singapore - Doh!), but did have 3 moderately damaged, and 1 lightly damaged. The subs just happened to run into several DDs that appear to have been transiting the area. I haven't looked at much data, but DDs are bad news. I don't know if they have better weapons, or if it is the result of them having higher crew experience and better skippers.

At any rate, the DDs decided to stay around, so I cleared out, sending the damaged ships for repairs, and the healthy ones to patrol around Saigon and Bangkok.

I'm not completely happy with these results. There were many, many duds and misses - at least 3 DDs were "hit - no explosion". The map below gives a rough idea - note that an open circle is a "failed attack", an "X" means that at least one attack was an "ASW" attack (instead of "sub attack"). A filled circle means at least one successful attack. The black number is the number of sub actions in that hex. Note off Singapore there were some successful attacks (5 - the xAKs were hit twice), out of 10, but the other 20 - nothing.

[tiemanjw]

5/22/1943

Burma

I have finished flying in 3 full divisions (5th Indian ID, 43rd US ID, 32 US ID) from Chittagong to Bassein. The heavy equipment for the 2 US divisions made it down to Rangoon in boats about a week ago. A second transport convoy is now carrying the heavy elements of the 5th ID. He still has significant air power in the region that he flies in from time to time to attack. I feel he will do this when he sees several heavy transports heading down along the coast. So 15 transports escorted by 8 DDs and the CL Java leave Chittagong traveling at full speed stopping in Akyab. Here is where things get interesting. Scouts locate the transport convoy and hundreds of bombers escorted by hundreds of fighters come to wipe it out. Except the reason we stop in Akyab is to provide maximum fighter protection for just this event. The result is a total bloodbath. Tracker reports:
49 Zeros
47 Bettys
36 Vals
34 Kates
27 Lily’s
32 Tojo’s (a and c models)
16 Dinah’s

have been donated by imperial forces to the Burma artificial reef program. The cost:

7 P39s
6 Hurricanes
9 P40s (mix of Es and Ks)
3 Wildcats
2 Kittyhawks
1 Corsair

A particular shout-out goes to the P39 pilots. They are the least experienced group - most pilots just out of my training program - and are flying the poorest A/C. They are also the lowest in my CAP stack, set below typical bombing altitudes. And these guys gave it everything they had. At the start of one raid, only 2 P39s go and engage about 75 fighters, shooting down a pair before reinforcements arrive. They would get shot up, go away, than come back (I'd have 18 to 20 early in the attack, several would get damaged or otherwise leave, so that only a few remain, than late in the fight the numbers would climb again). They ended the day with only 11 serviceable A/C...most of which had some amount of damage.

In the entire fight, only 6 bombers get through to the ships - for one bomb hit on one xAK (a dang sub caught this ship later in the day).

It will take 2 days to sail down to Rangoon. LRCAP will be provided for the transit, but hopefully now his bomber forces are shattered and will need some rebuilding time.


On the ground, I am beginning my assault without waiting for the 5th IDs heavy gear. I suspect that the hex south east of Prome is lightly defended. Recon shows 4 units there, but troop numbers are low with very few guns or AFVs. Plus there is a bridge over the Irrawaddy here, so I can move units there quickly.

For some time now I have been shuffling units back and forth between Prome and Bassein to desensitize him to traffic flowing here. At the same time I have been fainting a regiment from Bassein to Rangoon and timing a few unit breakups in Rangoon to give the appearance of units moving there for an attack. I have also ground bombed Rangoon to further the illusion. It appears to have had a small effect. Where I plan to attack had 5 units, now has 4. His force in Rangoon have been slowly growing as well.

Yesterday, with all forces assembled next to the target hex, the troops turned toward the river and are marching on the objective. Now the true preparation begins. Bombers will hit troops in Prome, and on the road south of the target. This is in order to prevent him from switching to movement mode and beating me to the objective. Bombers will also hit the target hex in force to a) find out what is really there, and b) cause as much disruption as possible.
Depending on the results of the bombers, I have 3 options from here:
1) If the bombers show light opposition in the target hex, the tanks will be released from the infantry to make the assault across the river. I have roughly 380 AV in 4 armor / Recce units. This will be ideal, as it gets to the target hex before he can react and it doesn't reveal the true size of the assault force pushing through the line.
2) If the bombers show a medium level of defending troops, the assault will continue as planned.
3) If the strength here is stronger than expected or he manages to reinforce before I can get there, I'll call off the attack and adjust from there.

If the attack is successful, and a hole is punched through the line, the troops will march down on Pegu to cut off his troops from the rail line in the west. A later assault on Chiang Mai, either with airborne troops or a thrust through the jungle, followed by a push to the south will completely cut off his troops in Burma.

[tiemanjw]

5/22/1943

Marshall Islands

After months of shuffling troops and supplies around, ever watchful of his CVs and LBA trying to crash the party, D-Day has finally arrived. The target? Ailinglaplap. I chose Ailinglaplap because it is located 3 hexes from the bulk of the Marshall Islands, and as such provides a base from which I can project airpower over this entire area. It is also only 9 hexes from Kusaie (in extended range of F4s, normal range for P38s), 11 hexes from Eniwetok (normal range for P38G, extended for the F model), and 16 hexes from Ponape (in range for B24s). It can also hold 30k troops - the rest of the Marshall Islands can only hold 6k (except Mili, which I already have). Most important, it is lightly defended. Sigint indicates only an SNLF (Yokosuka 5th), and 2 named support units (an AA Bn and part of an air flotilla) are present. A 4th, unidentified, unit is also there, but air recon doesn't suggest it is anything to worry about (it turns out it was the 51st Construction Bn). Few troops, fewer guns, and no AFVs consistently show up with high DLs.


The Plan
Most posts I've seen advocate a lengthy bombardment (air and naval) on target atolls. Though the value of this has been discussed often, I haven't seen the cost discussed nearly at all. If I bombard a place for a week, I announce that I am coming. This would give him time to stage his CVs and LBA in such a way as to make a mess of things if he so chooses. The alternative to a drawn out bombardment is, of course, a bolt from the blue. For better or worse, I decided on fast and dirty, rather than slow and steady.

Prepare the battlefield - initial steps
For the past several months, I have been setting up this assault. The first steps were to:
a) quietly position assault and support forces as close to the target as possible without setting off undue alarm
b) degrade his ability to project airpower over the target region
c) shoot down, disrupt, drive away, or make faces at as many of his scouting assets as I could

(b) was nothing unusual - simply bombing his bases and shooting down his A/C whenever the opportunity presented itself. B24s have been attacking his airfields and fighter sweeps have kept his fighters away. (c) involved much of the same, except that LRCAP was done over his bases where scout A/C have been sighted at. I think these efforts have been rather successful. He has no known DL on any of my bases, and many (at times most) of my TFs as well. (a) has been done by moving the bulk of units by air, rather than large ship convoys. Heavy equipment must be moved by sea, of course, but this can be done in smaller TFs that can avoid alerting him. His scouting troubles also helped here. Several convoys managed to get in and out of Mili without ever having been spotted.

Prepare the battlefield - final steps
In the end, it will take over 100 ships for this invasion - I can't hide them forever. So I tried to at least hide the actual target by increasing activity at another logical target. Nauru Island is an excellent target (in fact, I plan to hit there next). It is almost as close to Kusaie, protects my left flank, and can project power toward the Solomon's. To make him think this is the invasion point (and position his CVs to race in and ambush me there if that is what he is thinking), I send a conga line of mine sweepers there to clean out the mine field he dropped there. I also start ground bombing his units there. In addition, unused amphibious capacity (more than was used in the Ailinglaplap invasion) is sent to Tarawa. Fast support ships (such as my CVs) are assembled west of Tarawa. Given his lack of scouting, I'm not sure he notices some of these steps, but it didn't hurt.

Forces and Logistics
The main assault is to be made by 2 USMC regiments (3rd and 22nd), supported by 2 tank Bns and a combat engineer Bn. The USMC regiments and engineer Bn have been flown to Mili (with heavy equipment smuggled in over time). The tank Bns are coming from the southern Gilberts. In addition, and very importantly, 250 naval support squads are flown to Mili. This will enable the transports to be loaded in a single turn. The OOB looks like this:

main assault - 9 APAs loaded at Mili, a dozen LSTs are loaded in the Gilberts. These are timed to meet up at Mili just as the Marines are finished loading. A plethora of CAs, CLs, and DDs support this TF.
follow on - 8 AKs and a handful of LSTs loaded with supply. Economy of force dictates that this TF is lightly defended with just a few escorts
Bombardment - or sort of anyway. This TF is actually an amphibious TF with 2 old BBs some DDs and a handful of APDs carrying supply. The reason why will be explained later.

Support TFs:
Fast CV TF - 4 CVs(Yorktown, Hornet, Wasp, Victorious) 4 BBs, 25 ships total. Extra USMC fighter squadron on Hornet. 315 A/C (287 operational)
Slow CV TF - 7 CVEs, 1 old BB, 23 ships total. This TF stays with the fast CVs. I have 6 bad guy CVs somewhere, I need to add mass to my defense and strike packages. This TF adds 229 A/C (206 operational), meaning I have nearly 500 CV A/C waiting if the KB shows up.
Escort CV TF - 2 CVEs. These are fully loaded with fighters, and will provide CAP over the invasion beach.
SAG - A group of 3 CLs to blunt any surface action he seeks
5 ASW TFs - scattered around to attack any monsters lurking in the deep
Replenishment, mine sweeping, PT boats complete the OOB


Timeline
D-2 - APAs arrive at Mili to load USMC. Other invasion elements arrive at Tarawa to hide. CV TFs are assembled at Tabiteuea
D-1 - LSTs arrive at Mili and form up with APAs. CVs move up west of Tarawa, bombardment and follow on TFs move up to NW of Makin (as 1 TF) and split off. Bombing of Nauru reaches its peak, as does minesweeping activities. Two old AMs are lost to coastal guns while sweeping mines from Nauru. One last recon flight over Ailinglaplap is flown.

D-Day - The bombardment group races in. In game terms, this is an amphibious group sent to unload the APDs. The reason is that BBs in an amphibious group shot at troops - especially those defending the beaches. BBs in a bombardment group tend to waste a lot of ammo shooting up the airfield I hope to own shortly. The results are devastating; 2 BBs fire in 3 phases (6 total BB attacks). 4 of which were against the SNLF defenders (and none against the airfield).

While this is occurring, the main assault force speeds to the beaches arriving after the day naval movement phase. Allied amphibious shipping unloads fast (3000 load points / phase), and all of the assault elements are put on the beach in 1 phase (some support squads don't make it off on D-Day). The cruiser bombardment is even more effective than the battleships, and his ability to resist is severely degraded. This large and effective bombardment makes the shock attack a pushover. No Tarawa here:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Ailinglaplap (133,117)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 11455 troops, 193 guns, 380 vehicles, Assault Value = 461

Defending force 2089 troops, 29 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 23

Allied adjusted assault: 344

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 344 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Ailinglaplap !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender:
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2444 casualties reported
Squads: 52 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 227 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 48 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 22 (22 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 4

Allied ground losses:
138 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled

Assaulting units:
3rd Marine Regiment
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
22nd Marine Regiment
193rd Tank Battalion
2nd USMC Tank Battalion

Defending units:
Yokosuka 5th SNLF
51st Construction Battalion
39th Field AA Battalion
23rd Air Flotilla /7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


D+1 - empty transports leave. Follow-on TF arrives and unloads supplies. Escorts are shuffled around to provide protection for both ships staying and those leaving. CVs remain for one more day to cover the unloading, but nothing happens. Engineers, aviation, and naval support are flown in as well as fighters to takeover the CAP. The book is now closed on this operation.


So what are the lessons here? Can the allies swarm any atoll so long as there is an effective bombardment and enough troops? Of course not.
The number one lesson here is simply attack where he isn't. There are many possible airfields. He can't protect them all.
Once you do pick your target, and decide if you want to go hard and fast or slow and steady, you can craft your strike package for the mission.
As to naval bombardments, I'm thinking bombardment TFs is not the way to go (for an invasion at least). Attach your BBs to your amphibious TFs in order to engage the defenders.

[tiemanjw]

5/24/1943

Burma - Disaster!
Things have not gone well the last 2 days in Burma. It is not as bad as I first though, but there are no smile faces here.

First, the transport convey bringing in the 5th's heavy equipment got surprised while unloading at Rangoon. 2 CAs show up and cut up a dozen transports and 2 DDs (one of them a Fletcher). 2 DDs split off to protect a transport after the combat, and they get jumped and lost as well.
The [not so bad] good news:
all of the 5th's equipment valuable equipment was unloaded already - 72 guns, 16 Daimlers, 3 Eng Vehicles and 178 Motorized support are safely in Rangoon. 31 more Motorized support squads escape on 4 transports that get away. So a little over 100 motorized support squads go down.

I also got a little payback on his DDs. 1 was torpedoed in the initial attack. The follow on attack (where 2DDs were escorting a beat up xAK) caused heavy fires on 2 DDs and lesser fires on a 3rd. A 4th undamaged one gets 2 bombs from the Vengeances. So 1 sunk with 3 more possible.

But that isn't the worst news.
He retreated from Prome right into the hex I was marching toward. Dang. Even with 4 divisions, I can't expect to take on that much massed force (3 Infantry Div, 1 Armor Div, 4 Armor Reg, 1 mixed Bde, obscene amounts of arty). Especially not with a forced shock attack into 2x terrain. So the war for Burma won't be a quick affair. So now a new plan is needed. I'm considering 2 options:
1) Take the 43rd ID, 3 Armor Bdes, 2 US Armor Bns and a Motorized Infantry Bde north. I think he has 3 divisions up there. One is marching south, the other 2 are on the coast road. If I attack into the central basin here (Magwe, Mandalay, etc.), I may force them into the open. This will deny him this area, trap a few divisions and allow me to push supplies into China.
2) Attack east out of Prome. I suspect the 112th Inf Regiment here. A strong attack should be able to push to Toungoo. From here I can cut push south and cut off his forces in the central basin.

Either way, I'm sending the 5th Indian Div down to Bassein to protect it, or if necessary Rangoon. I also have the 11th Indian Division refitting in Chittagong that can be flown down in an emergency - they need about another 3 weeks to have a full TO&E, but they are combat capable if I need them.




Arabian Sea
A lone CA is spotted near Karachi. I'm not sure what he is doing here. I hope I can trap him. I sortied 2 cruisers and 3 DDs to try to chase him down. The 44th ID is 4 days off map heading to Bombay, so I hope to flush him out before they show up.


Marshall Islands
He has a lot of TFs around Wake Island. All of them 1-4 ships. I don't like this. I send Laffey and Bagley to investigate. I should have sent a pack of Fletchers. The run into a pair of IJN DDs. Both sides trade shots at long range and retire. Little damage to both sides. I'll keep an eyeball on the place and if nothing changes, I'll send Burke up next time.

All naval elements from the Ailinglaplap invasion are either back at Tarawa or will be tomorrow. CVs diverted a turn to chase a BB near Nauru, but he turns around before coming close. The CVs will be back tomorrow. Their airwings will scatter throughout the Gilberts / Marshalls to protect the embarkation of troops for Operation Post Master: The invasion of Nauru and Ocean Islands.

[tiemanjw]

So I now have enough SB2Cs and SBD5s to equip 1 squadron each. I have 1 VB with 70+ experience and a few with 60+. I want to give the best bomber to the best group. Which airframe should my top VB get?

[witpqs]

It's a judgement call, because one carries more bombs but the other has lower service rating!

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

It's a judgement call, because one carries more bombs but the other has lower service rating!

I know. I'm leaning toward more bombs, as I don't expect to attack day after day. If it were fighters it would be a different story.
I also see that the SB2C has a lot slower cruise speed... and a lot lower than the wildcat's as well (but close to the hellcat). The SBD5 and wildcat are very close in cruise speed, and the wildcat does all of my escorting right now.

[tiemanjw]

6/1/1943

Operation Post Master
The invasion of Nauru and Ocean Islands

The die is cast; I sent the last turn back with the initial orders to begin. Ocean will be invaded today, Nauru tomorrow. So here is the plan:

Forces:
Naval Support Element:
Fast CV (Mitscher): Yorktown, Hornet, Wasp, Victorious (160 Fighters, 143 SBD / SB2C / TBF), BB North Carolina, 3 CA, 2 CL, 2 CLAA, 8 DD - protect beaches
CVE Support (Sherman): 7 CVE (166 Fighters, 36 TBF), BB Indiana, 2 CA, 2 CL, 5 DD + 3 DD enroute) - beef up fighter cover in case KB comes to visit
Fast SAG (Lee): BB Washington, BB South Dakota, 5 DD - protect CVs and beaches from naval attack

CVE Escort (Lawson - Doh! forgot to change this one): 2 CVE (57 fighters), 4 DD - provide CAP for invasion forces
SAG (Lange) - 1 CA, 1 CL, 2 DD - protect beaches from naval attack


Nauru Invasion Forces:
Nauru Force "A" (Brown): BB Colorado, 1 CA, 1 CL, 6 DD, 10 AK / AKA (48k supply)
Nauru Force "B": BB Nevada, BB New Mexico, BB Massachusetts, 3 CA, 3 CL, 10 DD, 6 DMS, 16 APA, 6 AK, 13 LST
2nd Marine Division, 102nd Combat Eng Reg, 1st USMC Tank Bn, 3rd USMC Tank Bn

Ocean Invasion Force:
Ocean Force (Hill): 1 CA, 2 CL, 4 DD, 2 DMS, 4 APD, 1 AP, 2 AK, 2 LST, 11 LCI
2nd Marine Raider Bn, 1st & 2nd USMC Para Bn (3rd USMC Para Bn set to airdrop)



There are also 3 DD picket groups (3 ships each), 5 mine sweeping groups (2 ships each), 8 ASW groups (3 ships each). 25 submarines form a picket line. A few extras are bunched up where I think his CVs will operate from if they show up. 70 4E bombers, 20 2Es, 90 land based naval attack, and 265 land based fighters are directly involved as well.


Expected Opposition:
Ocean Island: about 500 - 1000 troops including the 44th Naval Guard Unit and elements of the 28th JAAF AF Bn

Nauru Island: about 10k troops. I have identified:
1st Base Force
28th JAAF AF Bn
1st Air Def AA Reg
23rd Med Arty
3rd FF Const Unit
a 6th unknown unit is there, which concerns me... but I can't figure out who it is. High DLs show between 80-130 guns and 20 - 40 AFVs. I'm thinking this is a combat unit, perhaps elements of a recon or tank regiment.
Nauru also has a large mine field and some coastal (or DP) guns. A few weeks ago subs sunk 2 CMs leaving Nauru. A handful of AMs swept about 100 or so, but I lost 2 to the DP guns.

Naval:
Several subs have been spotted over the past few weeks operating directly between Tarawa and Nauru. 2 possible BBs have been spotted in recent weeks heading toward Nauru, but they always head back out. Searches show nothing currently in the area. Recent weeks have shown over a dozen ships at Ponape including CAs and CVEs (though I suspect tankers), and up to 30 ships at Truk, but today only 2 mine warfare ships remain at Ponape and 11 assorted transports and tenders at Truk. Kavieng is empty and Rabaul has 2 small transports. He is out there, but I don't know where. Finally, the KB still exists. I've sunk 2 big and 2 small decks, but the rest are out there somewhere. I spotted them at Kavieng a few weeks ago, but he has since disappeared. I have seen a lot of radio transmissions in the Palau’s, but nothing I can count on. I have to anticipate him showing up unannounced.

Air:
Ocean has 4 float planes - probably damaged from a float plane attack he attempted against some DDs a few days ago. Nauru has nothing, but it does have a size 2 AF.
Yesterday, he moved 50 fighters into Kusaie - perhaps hoping to hit my B24s that visited the previous 2 days. I show a size 4 AF at 27% damage - but probably isn't that bad. He has a lot of troops there, and he felt safe enough to fly fighters into it. Ponape has half a dozen each of fighters and bombers. Truk has about 40 fighters and 70 bombers. There are also about 150 fighters and 30 bombers in the Solomon’s - most at Lunga (there have been lots of transports there recently - I think he is moving the 56th Division from here to Truk). Finally, I count about 100 float planes or other auxiliaries in and around the area (most at Rabaul and Lunga). Of course the KB can show up bringing an estimated 150 fighters and 300 bombers.


Invasion Timeline:
D-Day is set for June 1 at Ocean Island. All times will be measured from this day.

D-Day: Bombers will hit Ocean Island in force. All 180 bombers in the area are tasked with "ground attack" orders on Ocean.
Minesweepers will converge on Ocean Island starting in the night phase. Sub hunters sortie in force to the areas north and east of Ocean Island. The Ocean Invasion force will hit the beaches after the day naval movement phase. This will only give them 1 unloading cycle, but all of the invasion troops are on landing craft or APDs (and should unload fully in 1 phase). The 3rd USMC Para Bn will drop on the island as well. This gives me a total of 127 AV hitting the estimated 30-60 AV (starting). Given the massive fire support allocated to the island on D Day, I'm hoping to overwhelm the small garrison and capture the island on D Day.
The CVE Escort force will provide fighter cover to the Ocean invasion beaches. Land based fighters from Tarawa, Maiana, and Abemama will supplement.
The Nauru Invasion forces ("A" sailing from Tabiteuea and "B" sailing from Tarawa) will rendezvous south of Ocean Island and merge into 1 force. The 3 naval support TFs are following Nauru "A" to the rendezvous. Picket DDs set up in an arch to the west and north of Ocean Island. With luck, he won't spot the Nauru invasion force and perhaps think that the Ocean invasion is the extent of the operation.


D+1: Assuming Ocean Island is secured, PBYs will fly in to extend the search range out a few hundred miles to the west. If not, they will continue to operate out of the Gilberts. Tenders will be sent to keep these planes operational until a small amount of aviation support can be shipped in.

4E and 2E bombers will hit Nauru with ground attack orders. (Single engine navy bombers don't have the range, and I don't have the deck space to allocate to ground bombing should the KB show up).

Minesweepers will race into Nauru to open up lanes through the massive minefield. The combined Nauru Invasion force under VADM Brown will hit the beaches, again, after the day movement phase. The LSTs and APAs should get their combat elements unloaded right away, but some support squads will not land until D+2. 4 BBs and 4 CAs are covering the invasion, and should provide ample gunfire support. Hopefully this will be a repeat of the Ailinglaplap and Mili invasions, where most resistance was wiped out with BB gunfire support. CVE Escort force will head to Nauru to provide CAP over the invasion beaches. Supplemental air cover will be provided by P38s from the Gilberts.

The naval support TFs (fast CV, CV support, fast SAG) will move 3 hexes west, north west of Nauru to provide cover for the invasion. This will also allow them to strike at any forces reacting to an anticipated Nauru invasion. If the KB comes in, hopefully this will mean that I can get a strike in on him as he tries to stand off from the island. In the past, I only stood off 1 hex from the invasion site so he may try to hit me at range. If so, I'll be closer than he expects. With luck, my extensive search of the area will locate him. His lack of search so far in this area may allow me to escape detection, or force him to have some of his bombers dedicated to search.

The Ocean invasion force returns to the Gilberts.


D+2: If Nauru is captured (or at least the airfield is) and is not too damaged, I'll fly in fighter cover and search assents to Nauru. Two TFs with support troops are already loaded at Tabiteuea to occupy the island. If more fighting is needed, the remaining troops will disembark from the transports to finish the fight. If not, the marines will re-embark on their transports and return to the Gilberts to prepare for the next fight. From here, I'm considering 2 options with the CVs. I can either withdraw east of Nauru or I can strike at his transports near Lunga. I'll hold off on any decision here until I can see what the tactical situation looks like after Nauru invasion begins. I may need to stay to cover the invasion if things don't go well at the start.


Follow up
Once Nauru is secured, it will provide a base that can threaten the Solomon’s. It appears he may be withdrawing his forces from there, so this may be a bit too late. It also denies him a base that can be a thorn in my side as I prepare to make other moves. The additional search coverage should give ample warning of anything attempted against my bases in the Gilberts. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, this is a dress rehearsal for the invasion of Ponape. The forces defending Ponape look to be of similar size to Nauru. I have a similar sized force 100% prepared. If this invasion is successful, operations against Ponape could be undertaken within about 2-3 weeks.


Unless something drastic happens, for the next few posts, I'm just going to report on Operation Post Master. Reports on Burma and the first month of my pilot training experiment will wait to avoid jumping back and forth too much.


Finally (if anyone actually reads this far), I'm looking for some AARs (or the portion of the AAR) where a large CV battle takes place. I just read Mr Kane's battle of Baker Island to try to extract what lessons I could. Are there any others where a good CV battle takes place that I can try to extract some lessons learned from?

[tiemanjw]

6/2/1943

Operation Post Master, D Day Sitrep

Results after the first day of Operation Post Master are so far so good, despite a few hiccups in the execution. The biggest hiccups were that none of the bombers flew, and on the beach confusion and sea sickness reigned. Further, a potential issue for D+1 - an enemy SAG is spotted 2 hexes west of Nauru. Right now it reports as 6 boats including a CL and a DD - and is retreating to the northwest. This could be a fast transit TF trying to evacuate (or reinforce) his exposed garrison. Or it could be a SAG intent of hitting some of the ASW TFs that started operating around Nauru.

Back to Ocean Island. As expected troops hit the beach after the day movement phase. Cruisers hit the defending 44th Naval Guard Unit hard causing massive causalities (and presumably disruption). Minneapolis and St Louis, in particular, emptied their main batteries, as well as a good portion of their port side secondary batteries, into the defenders positions. (Potentially interesting note to check for in future invasions: Cleveland, the 3rd cruiser, has the most aggressive skipper by far and hung back during the bombardment. She retains 2/3 of her ammo)

At first landings appeared to go well... the combat report says only 1 non combat squad was disabled. Then, during the shock attack, I noticed all 3 USMC Para Bns had a goose egg for AV during the combat animation. Fortunately, the defending garrison was small and inexperienced and overrun.

Using tracker, I tried to look into why the AV was low for these units after landing. I looked at disruption for each of the units, and it is in the 30s - mid 40s now (after the attack). Mid 40s may be a bit high, but mid 30s seems to be par for the course - the Ailinglaplap invasion forces had 30+ disruption after their landing. So I went to tracker to see what it was leading up to the assault. I now see that loading on LCI craft (as the para Bns were) appears to skyrocket the disruption. Each unit gained significant disruption each day for the 3 days they were loaded on the transports. The 2nd USMC Bn in particular - they started the landing with 30 disruption. The Marine Raider Bn, loaded on an AP and 4 APDs did not seem to have the same problem. I show no disruption for the element on the AP (the ones on the APDs are lost to history due to recombining during the assault). These guys finished the day with just 14 disruption (after combat). So what does this mean for the Nauru invasion? I checked my units enroute to Nauru... and I'm good. Those loaded on APAs (the bulk of the force) are in good shape with a max of 3 disruption. The elements on AKs though have gained about 1-2 disruption a day, and are approaching 10. The tanks, on LSTs, are gaining 2-3 disruption a day and are all at or a bit over 10. I guess those flat bottom boats are causing their share of sea sickness. This is something I'll have to pay attention to when planning future invasions. (oh, and as for the 3rd USMC para Bn that airdropped in... I forgot to change them from "rest" op mode. DOH!)


So now that Ocean is secured, I flew in about 50 float planes: 24 PBYs to push searches west (1 day group and 1 night group). In addition, about 2 dozen Kingfishers were added - a few to augment the close range search (hoping to spot subs), and most to ASW - hoping to bag one or 2. As for the Nauru invasion, I considered postponing due to the presence of the enemy SAG. However, given that his ships were heading in the wrong direction, and none of my TFs except a 3 SC and a 3 DD TF (and the Ocean invasion forces) have any DL. Postponing would only give him another chance to spot some of the large number of ships in the area. I decided to go forward as planned, with a few minor modifications. Burke will take his 3 Fletchers immediately west of Nauru with a react of 4. If that enemy SAG comes toward the island, hopefully Burke will make an intercept and drive him away. Lee will lead the invasion force, then peel off to the north just before reaching the island. All minesweeping and the invasion TF have been set to "direct" routing and "absolute" threat tolerance. Big day tomorrow.