Pearl Harbour question for WitP designers (Matrix/2By3) and BETA testers...

[mogami]

Hi, For me the only logical reason for delaying war with the USA would be to speed up operations in the rest of SRA and have operations of stratigic impact in other areas outside US control.
Therefore I have Japanese units landing on north coast of NG/Rabaul/Gasmata on Dec 7th. 2 14th Army units provide the required force. (1 Div and 1 Bde) The CV move into South Pacific to insure no movement of Australian units to NG and occupy Noumea (Vichy French)
I beleive this operation can be completed by mid Feb 42 (10 weeks before actual opening of operations in South Pacific)

The units from 14th Army would be replaced by units from 16th & 25th Army.

Condition prior to invading PI (DOW on USA)
15th Army occuping Rangoon.
1 Div in Bangkok

25th Army captures Singapore. 1 Div garrison

SRA occupied garrison of 1 Div and 3 Bde for Java Sumatra and Borneo.

2 Area Army HQ 1 for Malaya/Burma 1 For remainder of SRA.
reinforments to arrive by 1943 doubling force (4 more div)

Area Army to conduct operation against PI using all divisions from 14th 16th 25th Army not assigned garrison duty and not employed in South Pacific. After capture of PI 2 divisions to become garrision (with 2 more by 43)
All other units divided between 2 area armys. 1 for CenPac 1 for South Pac

The PI operation would only wait for SRA to complete (DOW on USA once units ready to land on PI)
(currently envision 4 divisions landing on 4 differant beaches)

Japan could be ready for Major operation (beyond opening move in SP) By May 42 in Cen Pac or South Pac.

[LTCMTS]

I agree. Grab Malaysia and the NEI for the goods, use Thailand and Burma as a buffer against a British counteroffensive while shutting down the Burma Road, and grab as much of the SW Pacific as possible, first to cut the LOC to Australia from Hawaii, second to surround the Philippines and reduce the US LOC to the route from Hawaii by way of Guam and third, eleminate a possible avenue of approach by the US while establishing a flanking position supporting the Mandates. The question is what shape is the oil industry in NEI in upon completion of Phase I. Given the ineffectiveness of US SS through 1942, the real constraint on oil supplies to Japan is the ability to bring the wells and refineries back on line. Since we are not altering the Japanese strategic doctrine, we would not be building escorts and tankers in anticipation of the US SS commerce raiding campaign beginning in 1943. Does occupying the SW Pacific put a crimp in the use of Australia as a SS base by the US? What are your thoughts, Phase II as a) carry out a surprise attack on the US forces in the Pacific, b) occupy the northern Australian coast or c) leave a shielding force behind and go for broke in the Indian Ocean while the Brits are on the ropes? Or does the IJA step in and force a pause and consolidation of the defensive perimeter while the go for the final reckoning with the USSR during the German summer 42 offensive.

[TIMJOT]

Good war plan Mogami. I might have kept the 14th Army in reserve just in case of a sudden US DOW. Nothing wrong with being aggressive though. BTW have you decided what would trigger a US DOW? How about a periodic roll of the dice just to keep you guessing and to instill a little uncertainty to your well laid plans. You could increase the odds every month.

[LTCMTS]

I missed it too, first time, TIMJOT. He's headed for the PI right after his Phase I ops. So he'll initiate hostilities himself, probably around May-Jun 42 if I read him right. Remember the original point was to see what position the Japanese could have been in without US interference in first phase of ops.

[TIMJOT]

Ahh got it. As an aside, I am also just wondering how the alpha version of the reinforcement OOB is shapeing up. ie the Pensecola convoy starting the game underway in the Pacific midway to the PI, with its 52 A-24s and 18 P-40s all crated; 3 NG arty Bns (75mm) and the ground eschelon of the 7th Bombardment group ( in game terms a base unit with enough airsupport for 36 B-17s). Also as you stated the 34th US Reg Rgt embarking at SF and the US NG 41st Division available to embark. Not to mention the tons of equipement and supplies destined for the PI but back logged in West coast ports. To be a fair and accurate test the US must have access to these forces to counter Japanese moves IMO.

[LTCMTS]

Agree that the PLANNED reinforcements for the PI (and Hawaii, Alaska and Panama) should be executed up to the point of initiation of hostilities, say May-Jun 42. This would give the US a larger force, with a better trained, better equipped PA in the PI. Those forces, however, that were rushed to the Pacific between Jan and Jun 42 because of the operational disasters that occured should not be available at start. For example, the Mississippi, New Mexico and Idaho along with the Wasp, Hornet and Yorktown should still be in the Atlantic supporting the "Neutrality Patrol" and the "all aid short of war" policy.
An afterthought, the CVs could be released to the Pacific between Jan and Jun 42 as the CVEs come on line, say on a capacity exchange basis (2-3 CVE's for Yorktown).

[mogami]

Hi, This is not complete. I'll edit as I go and let you know when it is final turn 1 orders and complete operational concept.
Many Land unit orders still unfinished. Have not started Airgroup or Naval Movment orders. Just want you to be able to follow along.


Japanese orders on Dec 7th 1941

Southern Area Army

3rd & 21st Eng Rgt placed under control of 14th Army. Load Pescadores for movement to Gili Gili
36th & 37th Construction Bn 45th Hvy AA Bn placed under control of 14th Army. Load Pescasdores for movement to Lunga.
4th 5th Eng Rgt placed under control of 25th Army. Load at Taan for movement to Khota Bharu.
15th, 23rd Eng Rgt placed under control of 14th Army. Load at Taan for movment to Rabaul.
4th Mixed Bde placed under control of 14th Army. Loads at Saigon for movement to Gili Gili.
23rd Mixed Bde placed under control of 16th Army. Loads at Saigon for movement to Pontainak.

Southern Fleet

1st,2nd ,3rd Naval Construction Bn placed under control of 14th Army. Load Takao for movement to Rabaul.
Sasbo 1st SNLF loads Tako for movement to Brunei
Sasbo 2nd SNLF loads at Palau for movment to Samarinda.
Shuzan Naval Guard Unit placed under control of 14th Army. Loads at Pescadores for movement to Shortlands.
Kure 1st SNLF placed under control of 16th Army. Loads at Palau for movement to Kendari (will remain as Garrision after 56th Bde moves on)
Kure 2nd SNLF loads at Palau for movement to Menado.
9th NLF load Camranh Bay for movement to Muntok
16th Naval Guard Unit loads at Taan for movement to Jambi.
35th Bde placed under control of 16th Army. Load at Camranh Bay for movment to Palembang.

Southeast Fleet

4th NLF loads at Truk for movement to Lae
66th Naval Guard Unit loads at Truk for movement to Finschfen.
24th NLF loads at Truk for movement to Salamaua.
8th NLF loads at Truk for movement to Buna.
Maizuru 1st SNLF loads at Truk for movement to Lunga.
4th Baseforce and 7th Construction Bn load at Truk for movement to Lae.
3rd Baseforce placed under control of 16th Army. Loads at Palau for movement to Kendari.


14th Army (Capture NG and South Pacific.)(reinforces 16th and 25th Armies)(draws replacement units from Southern Area Army)
(Supported in operations on North coast of NG by Southern Fleet and Southeast Fleet)

16th Div placed under control of 25th Army.Loads at Arnami for movement to Khota Bharu (This Div replaces Imperial Guard Div transfered to 15th Army. By landing on Dec 7th gived 25th Army 3 divisions much faster then otherwise)
65th Bde Loads at Pescadores for movement to Gasmata.
48th Div placed under control of 16th Army. Loads at Pescadores for movement to Balikpapan.
7th Tank Regt placed under control of 25th Army. Loads at Pescadores for movement to Khota Bharu.
4th Tank Regt Loads at Pescadores for movement to Rabaul.
4th Div placed under control of 25th Army. Div will load Nagoya for movement to where needed. (transports not available on Dec 7 will commence loading on Dec 9)
21st Div located in Osaka breaks down into Bde (3)(not enough transport for entire Div) Bde loads to move to Rabaul. (The 3 Bde components are enough for South Pacific operations. 21st Div will replace 16th Div.)


15th Army (will advance to Rangoon)

55th Div marching toward Tovoy

16th Army (will secure SRA)(supported by units from other commands single divisions or Bde will occupy bases outside Java.
Once air control of Java established 3 Div equivalents will be used to capture Java.

3rd NLF loads at Palau for movement to Hollandia.
21st NLF loads at Palau for movement to Dagua.
22nd NLF loads at Palau for movement to Wewak.
23rd NLF loads at Palau for movment to Madang.
2nd Div transports not available on Dec 7. Will commence loading Kagoshima on Dec 9 for movement to Macassar.
38th Div moves to Hong Kong (transports will move to Hong Kong enough to lift entire Division. This unit will be held in readiness to invade P.I. after 3 other divisions become available (16th or 25th Army)
56th Bde loads at Palau for movement to Kendari.

25th Army (will land Khota Bharu and Songkhia to secure airfields. After reinforced will advance down both coasts to secure Singapore)(5th Div will move down west coast while 16th & 18th move down east coast. 4th & 56th Divisions will move to 25th Army. Landing point to be determined by situation when divisions arrive.

2nd Tank Rgt 35th Hvy AA Bn load at Taan for movement to Songkhia.
6th,14th Tank Regt 34th Hvy AA Bn load at Taan for movement to Khota Bharu.
3rd,5th 14th Morter Bn load at Taan for movment to Khota Bharu
5th Div loads at Taan for movement to Songkhia.
18th Div loads at Taan for movement to Khota Bharu
Imperial Guard Div placed under control of 15th Army. marching toward Tovoy (not located in port. Div to be replaced by 16th Div)
56th Div. will commence loading Osaka on Dec 9th for movement to Khota Bharu


4th Fleet (support 14th Army)

6th NLF load Kwajalein for movement to Luganville.
30th Special Base Force placed under control of 14th Army. Load Palau for movement to Lunga.
53rd & 61st Naval Guard Unit load Kwajalein for movement to Noumea.

[Chiteng]

I think Mogami that you are not being very subtle in such a plan.

Yes you might seize a great many places such as Gili Gili
but the result will also be that the enemy is NOT harmed
in attempting to defend them.

Remember there is more to war than timetables.

[LTCMTS]

Don't tell that to a logistician operating at the strategic levels. A strategy that cannot be supported logistically is a fantasy.
Perhaps Mogami is positioning himself for Phase II operations with forces not required to achieve operational victory in SEA and NEI?

[Chiteng]

Originally posted by LTCMTS
Don't tell that to a logistician operating at the strategic levels. A strategy that cannot be supported logistically is a fantasy.
Perhaps Mogami is positioning himself for Phase II operations with forces not required to achieve operational victory in SEA and NEI?

I think Mogami is trying to maximize expansion while it is easy to do so. (ie undefended)

Tossing men into a diseased jungle like Gili Gili is a true horror.

[LTCMTS]

Don't have access to my references. Is this the island where the Japanese or the Allies tried to build an airfield and essentially lost the entire committed force to disease? Otherwise you say that about almost every island in the Solomons.

[mogami]

Hi, Since this is an experiment. And the only justification I can think of to ignore the US from the start is to knock the other allies as far back as possible as quickly as possible. I've activated the 14th Army 6 months ahead of actual event.
14th Army is going to capture Port Moresby. Because in WITP there is a trail from PM to Gili I have to capture Gili first to cut off retreat of enemy units from PM.

New Guinea will be defended by 1 division and 2 Bde (PM/Lae/Gili Gili)
These 3 airfields will control air space from NG to Australia and out into Coral Sea.

Since I have no clear idea when all operations will finish (Malaya and SRA) I have to secure bases to use to launch operations against USA far enough in advance to build/supply them. The war plan has to concentrate on preparing to damage the USN
Any land combat unit for those operations has to be moved and rested refitted before operations can begin. So I am grabbing everything as fast as possible using units that require the least amout of logistic support.

14th Army's ultimate objective is to capture Noumea as quickly as possible. Then Japan needs at least a month to prepare Noumea to base operation versus USA to coincide with attack on PI/Guam/Wake (The only remaining area will be the Central Pacific. But I currently am looking at moving up via the chain of Islands extending east of Noumea towards Pearl Harbor. )

I believe I can save a lot of fuel for the fleet by grabbing everything fast while the ships are covering. Then the IJN can repair damage while SRA is captured since there will be no transport movement in areas not covered by air. And all enemy surface forces will have been destroyed or pushed to bases out of area. (smaller support TF's)

I am open to alternative stratagy. I'll conform operations to the wishes/direction of the forum posters.

[LTCMTS]

Actually there is a good deal of method to Mogami's madness. I found an interesting article on this web site http://www.kokodawalkway.com.au/stations/milne_bay.html about gili gili. Evidently the US/Australians built THREE air strips in and around Milne Bay, including Gili Gili in support of New Guinea ops. The Japanese counter-landed and the Australians beat them off for their first victory of the SEA campaign.

[TIMJOT]

Originally posted by LTCMTS
Those forces, however, that were rushed to the Pacific between Jan and Jun 42 because of the operational disasters that occured should not be available at start. For example, the Mississippi, New Mexico and Idaho along with the Wasp, Hornet and Yorktown should still be in the Atlantic supporting the "Neutrality Patrol" and the "all aid short of war" policy.
An afterthought, the CVs could be released to the Pacific between Jan and Jun 42 as the CVEs come on line, say on a capacity exchange basis (2-3 CVE's for Yorktown).

I would say there, there would be a good chance that in light of the Japanese aggression that one or both of the Yorktown and Hornet would warrent re-deployment to the Pacific. The Wasp and Ranger would probably surfice for nuetrality patrols in lue of the crisis.

Than again you are probably right, when you consider historically the USN in event of a US DOW, intended to use those forces (Missippis's, Washington, CVs) to take the place of Force H at Gibralter and North sea blockade units. So as to free up British units for SE Asia. It follows that with the possibility of war immenent the USN would be reluctant to transfer those units to Pacific.

However if Mogami does eventually attack the US and barring a similar PH disaster, then we should eventually see possibly the KGV, DOY, Renown, Rodney?, Illustrious, Infatagible, Indomitable enter the picture.

[LTCMTS]

The thing about Japanese strategy was that they intended to set up a "cordon" defense of their conquests and reinforce their forces at the point of attack. The US CV raids in Feb 42 showed that without overwhelming force a cordon defense will fail, just as it did against Napoleon in Italy in 1796. The Japanese cannot be strong enough to defend sufficiently everywhere and the cordon is so wide that they will eventually find that they cannot respond quickly enough in strength to counter an enemy to which they have surrendered the initiative and the time to build their strength. The crux of the current scenario is: would the Japanese player be "seduced" into expanding his defense perimeter because of the weakness of the Allied defense and his strength or can he develop a defensive strategy against the US counter-offensive and conduct his Phase I operations in view of his later objective, forgoing geographic positions that do not support the Phase II objectives.
On British strategy, the Brits had promised the Aussies and New Zealanders that a "fleet" would sail to their rescue if a war with Japan erupted. The historical result was Force Z. The real question is that the British in Dec '41 faced Tirpitz, Scharnhorst and Gneisenau in the Atlantic, the French fleet was immobilized in Toulon and the Italians had Littorio, Vittorio Veneto, Giulio Cesare, Andrea Doria and Caio Duilio. In other words, the British needed 3 modern/modernized BB/CBs to watch the Germans and 3-5 BB/CBs to watch the Italians. Each force would need 1-2 CV/CVL/CVEs to provide air cover and some strike capability. If only the three "New Mexicos" are left in the Atlantic, with the 2 "New Yorks" and Arkansas, and supported by at least Ranger, the RN should have been able to release a more robust force than Indomitable, Hermes, Prince of Wales and Repulse. Even with the forces used for the invasion of Madagascar combined with Force Z, the RN commander would have to be careful how he exposed his force to the IJNs carrier fleet and LBA. As a fleet in being though, it would complicate the Japanese defense against the US PacFleet. I would still send the Washington and North Carolina into the Pacific as I do not consider a KGV the operational equivalent for Pacific ops.

[mogami]

Hi, First change to Plan. Disregard all referance to 17th Army. Rather then wait for a HQ that does not exist on Dec 7th the 14th Army will conduct operations in South Pacific. It will transfer some assets to 16th and 25th and draw others from Southern Area Army. HQ 14th Army will move to Rabaul.

[Chiteng]

My argument is that if the game wishes to avoid the 'wargame'
feature.....

ie - The players know that the Japs have an overwhelming edge
and so evacuate everything they possibly can away from
where the Japs can reach them.


Politicly unacceptable. Just as wholesale withdrawl in the face of german invasion was equally unacceptable to Stalin.

Some realities must be faced.

[Bulldog61]

The big challenfge is that based in the state of alert I'm not sure how long the US would have sat on the sidelines and watch the Japanesse overun the NEI. leaving the Phillipines isolated. Probably only a couple of days to two weeks max.

[mogami]

Originally posted by MikeKraemer
The big challenfge is that based in the state of alert I'm not sure how long the US would have sat on the sidelines and watch the Japanesse overun the NEI. leaving the Phillipines isolated. Probably only a couple of days to two weeks max.

Hi, I also do not think the US would have allowed this scenario.
But what the heck it's only a test of an Alpha version game. We might gain some insight or learn something.

[mogami]

Hi, What Islands in South Pacific are US? New Hebrides? Santa Cruz? If I plot a movement in the orders post on page 5 make sure you let me know any that would attack a US held base.
(Currently there is only one flag for Allied bases in WITP. There will eventually be flags for every Nation.)