Bulgarian Gambit

[Tanaka]

ORIGINAL: Dazo

ORIGINAL: Tanaka
So yes it is a must but it is not the solution. The only solution in my opinion is to swap out the detachment in Sophia with a Corps. That at least ensures a few turns of Bulgaria's survival. Although I am not sure what the historical setup actually was. Anyone know?

Hi Tanaka, historical setup for Bulgaria in 1915 is as follow:

Serbian border in the west:
Facing Nish in the north: 1st army (Boyadiev) with 4 infantry divisions (1-6-8-9) and 1 cavalry brigade.
(195,620 men and 422 guns)
Serbia: 2nd army (Stepanovik) with 3 infantry (Sumadija, Morava, Combined) and 1 cavalry (Danub) divisions.
(90,000 men and 248 guns)

Facing Uskub in the south: 2nd army (Todorov) with 3 infantry (2-3-7) and 1 cavalry divisions.
(99,497 men and 182 guns)
Serbia: Macedonian Legion (Boyovic)
(29,600 men and 50 guns)

Other:
Facing romanian border: 3rd army (Toshev) with 2 infantry divisions (4-5) and various fortress units/garrisons.

1st and 2nd army are the bulk of Bulgarian forces throughout the war:
- 616,680 men and 960 guns in september 1915 (3 armies)
- 697,157 men and 1,459 guns in september 1918 (4 armies)
- 420,597 men for Serbs in 1914 down to around 125,000 after retreat to the coast
Just to say: serbian commanders Stepanovik (2nd army) and Boyovic (1st army, promoted) got their revenge at Salonique in 1918.

Thank you sir!

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: Tanaka


Question: Why did you not attempt the Surprise Gambit on Sophia this time? Would have been interesting to see if it happened again!

Insufficient force in the area.

That French corp just arrived up from Albania. The other French corp you see was covering the road above Salonika and couldn't reach. There is no French HQ in theater. (I didn't want to reveal this because we are still heavily involved in this situation). The Serb corp that participated is partially demoralized. The rest of the Serb units around Nish as you can see are detachments and a cavalry corps and are being pressed by your KuK..if I tried to use those they would loose their entrenchments and Nish would fall for sure. Nish falls then Bulgaria (and the Ottoman Empire) are linked to the rest of the Central Powers. This battle for Sofia has now evolved into the Battle of Nish.

In the previous game that was the feature of this thread, while it was also a desperate move, the situation was way better. The Rumanians had just got in the war, and a segment of their army pressed down and forced your AH army out of Nish. Mean while, I had 2 Greek corps, I UK corps (all upgraded to Inf 1) under a strong UK HQ (Allenby) move up to positions along the border on the road to Nish. Also a Serb corp pivoted off the line facing the KuK and participated in the sneak attack on Bulgaria. The conditions during that game were completely different.

[Tanaka]

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

ORIGINAL: Tanaka


Question: Why did you not attempt the Surprise Gambit on Sophia this time? Would have been interesting to see if it happened again!

Insufficient force in the area.

That French corp just arrived up from Albania. The other French corp you see was covering the road above Salonika and couldn't reach. There is no French HQ in theater. (I didn't want to reveal this because we are still heavily involved in this situation). The Serb corp that participated is partially demoralized. The rest of the Serb units around Nish as you can see are detachments and a cavalry corps and are being pressed by your KuK..if I tried to use those they would loose their entrenchments and Nish would fall for sure. Nish falls then Bulgaria (and the Ottoman Empire) are linked to the rest of the Central Powers. This battle for Sofia has now evolved into the Battle of Nish.

In the previous game that was the feature of this thread, while it was also a desperate move, the situation was way better. The Rumanians had just got in the war, and a segment of their army pressed down and forced your AH army out of Nish. Mean while, I had 2 Greek corps, I UK corps (all upgraded to Inf 1) under a strong UK HQ (Allenby) move up to positions along the border on the road to Nish. Also a Serb corp pivoted off the line facing the KuK and participated in the sneak attack on Bulgaria. The conditions during that game were completely different.

I see very interesting!

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

It will currently move the US 3-5% away from the Entente.

I quite like the idea of a second capital as I think that will reduce the great incentive for the sudden strike? Not to say it won't still be useful, but rather than it being game over for Bulgaria is Sofia is taken, it could make for a new and interesting area for everyone to fight over?

OK, so you have got that idea covered. Is 3-5% enough, do you think? A second capital sounds like a good idea too. Plovdiv or Varna? I think I would prefer Varna.

Yes..Varna would probably serve well. It won't stop some of us, ahem, 'aggressive' Entente players from striking Bulgaria in a preemptive attack, because it could give us wiggle room in defense of Serbia and further isolate the Ottomans for example. But, it would give the Central Powers player a chance to defend themselves.

An alternative option would be to just have a corp repositioned in to Sofia. Looking at Dazo's Bulgarian OOB chart shows the largest Bulgarian Army Group positioned to strike Nish, which currently is just an open road straight to Sofia. (This is the main avenue to pull off The Bulgarian Gambit.) Also, this repositioned corp probably should be entrenched or have adequate ground cover. Edit: I'm starting to lean slightly to this option but would like to hear from others about these ideas.

Anyway, I personally believe Bulgaria has just as much 'back bone' as Serbia or Romania, who have the chance to have their seat of government moved. Bulgaria won't be in a better position if this is implemented, for they will be even more cut off from Austria-Hungary and Germany, but at least, they can have a fallback position..and hope that they're stronger allies will rescue them.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

It will currently move the US 3-5% away from the Entente.

I quite like the idea of a second capital as I think that will reduce the great incentive for the sudden strike? Not to say it won't still be useful, but rather than it being game over for Bulgaria is Sofia is taken, it could make for a new and interesting area for everyone to fight over?

OK, so you have got that idea covered. Is 3-5% enough, do you think? A second capital sounds like a good idea too. Plovdiv or Varna? I think I would prefer Varna.

Yes..Varna would probably serve well. It won't stop some of us, ahem, 'aggressive' Entente players from striking Bulgaria in a preemptive attack, because it could give us wiggle room in defense of Serbia and further isolate the Ottomans for example. But, it would give the Central Powers player a chance to defend themselves.

An alternative option would be to just have a corp repositioned in to Sofia. Looking at Dazo's Bulgarian OOB chart shows the largest Bulgarian Army Group positioned to strike Nish, which currently is just an open road straight to Sofia. (This is the main avenue to pull off The Bulgarian Gambit.) Also, this repositioned corp probably should be entrenched or have adequate ground cover. Edit: I'm starting to lean slightly to this option but would like to hear from others about these ideas.

Anyway, I personally believe Bulgaria has just as much 'back bone' as Serbia or Romania, who have the chance to have their seat of government moved. Bulgaria won't be in a better position if this is implemented, for they will be even more cut off from Austria-Hungary and Germany, but at least, they can have a fallback position..and hope that they're stronger allies will rescue them.

After thinking about this more and doing some research, I'm leaning more and more that adding a second capital for Bulgaria would NOT be such a good idea for the following reasons.

Bulgaria finally surrendered in 1918 because the Entente finally broke through the Salonika Front..leaving Sofia open. In game terms, this would probably result in the occupation of the city by an Entente unit, and Bulgaria would surrender as is the norm. If the second capital 'fix' was implemented, then the Entente would have to continue on, probably to Varna or what ever location was chosen. This would be way ahistorical.

The whole problem with the Bulgarian Gambit is the early surprise attack by a war declaration and invasion from Nish and vicinity. There is only a detachment there, and even with the new patch of giving it improved ground cover...that really isn't enough to stop a one turn take down. According to Dazo's post with the OOB of Bulgaria, a large percentage of Bulgaria's forces were arrayed in and just west of Sofia facing Nish. The rest of the forces that deploy in Bulgaria upon war entry are correct, but some kind of repositioning of the current forces in the west side of the country could be changed somewhat...perhaps the corp nearby being in Sofia, and the detachment shifted west.

This is just an idea of course...but it probably needs a little more tweaking to make it harder for the Entente to alpha strike Bulgaria.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

Bulgarian Gambit: Axis of attacks to take Sofia in one round after a Declaration of War on Bulgaria by the Entente.

This has been done before the most recent patch (1.03.00) and commonly required at least 3 to 4 corps (depending on the weather, their readiness and morale, HQ attachment (usually necessary) and other factors. A few times, even after these attacks, the city hex could not be occupied by the initial attackers...but a rear unit if positioned correctly could get in.

From the point of view of the CP player..he would hear the air raid siren, then see a flurry of attacks on Sofia. The city would be occupied next, the the country would surrender. Pooph! And no recourse to defend against this.

Now some would say that the Central Powers need to go all out on Serbia...and get to Nish as soon as possible, and this is true! However, other circumstances like Austria-Hungary trying to stop being overrun by the Russians and the imminent arrival of Italy may preclude a strong attack on Serbia in 1914 through mid 1915. Many players and I have had to make the hard decision to delay an offensive on this Balkan state, even when understanding the consequences...and wait for artillery and/or German help to defeat Serbia.

This is where the Bulgarian Gambit can be considered by the Entente....Early in the war or at least before Serbia loses Nish . I think this is a reasonable strategy by the Entente to consider if they have the means to do so.

However..I do believe that the Central Powers player should have a chance to at least survive a turn to defend Bulgaria, and not experience a knockout blow in one turn with an alpha strike.

I am working on a few solutions to this..mainly just a redeployment of the available troops on the map, and am not considering a second capital as that solution at this time. The latest patch gives the detachment a ground cover bonus of 3, but its not quite enough against a determined sneak attack.

I will post a revised initial set up based on my research and the use of data Dazo provided that's on this thread
soon

[Chernobyl]

Yeah I think Bulgaria needs slightly different troop locations.

Me personally I always blitz into Serbia and I don't believe my opponent would have a chance to implement any Bulgarian attack. However, it should absolutely be a viable alternative for Centrals to choose the popup option to redeploy their Austrian army to face Russia, and deal with Serbia later. The Bulgarian attack makes this strategy unviable.

I would venture to say that if the Entente ever conquers Bulgaria then that's a huge win for them, even if it were to come at a high price (Serbia's defense collapses, though this is by no means guaranteed). It lowers Centrals NM and permanently takes away a critical early army (and artillery slot).

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Yeah I think Bulgaria needs slightly different troop locations.

Me personally I always blitz into Serbia and I don't believe my opponent would have a chance to implement any Bulgarian attack. However, it should absolutely be a viable alternative for Centrals to choose the popup option to redeploy their Austrian army to face Russia, and deal with Serbia later. The Bulgarian attack makes this strategy unviable.

I would venture to say that if the Entente ever conquers Bulgaria then that's a huge win for them, even if it were to come at a high price (Serbia's defense collapses, though this is by no means guaranteed). It lowers Centrals NM and permanently takes away a critical early army (and artillery slot).

Its always a win for the Entente if this happens...you are correct about that. I'm doing some redeployments with the editor but got to test them first.

One simple fix is to just swap the detachment in Sofia for the corp in Plovdiv. Seems a large portion of Bulgaria's army was positioned to push towards Nish. I think second capital is out for reasons I posted earlier in the thread.

Alas...I got a few pbem turns to do tonight..but any ideas would be helpful. What you said about AH players decision making dilemma is spot on.

[OldCrowBalthazor]

ORIGINAL: Dazo

ORIGINAL: Tanaka
So yes it is a must but it is not the solution. The only solution in my opinion is to swap out the detachment in Sophia with a Corps. That at least ensures a few turns of Bulgaria's survival. Although I am not sure what the historical setup actually was. Anyone know?

Hi Tanaka, historical setup for Bulgaria in 1915 is as follow:

Serbian border in the west:
Facing Nish in the north: 1st army (Boyadiev) with 4 infantry divisions (1-6-8-9) and 1 cavalry brigade.
(195,620 men and 422 guns)
Serbia: 2nd army (Stepanovik) with 3 infantry (Sumadija, Morava, Combined) and 1 cavalry (Danub) divisions.
(90,000 men and 248 guns)

Facing Uskub in the south: 2nd army (Todorov) with 3 infantry (2-3-7) and 1 cavalry divisions.
(99,497 men and 182 guns)
Serbia: Macedonian Legion (Boyovic)
(29,600 men and 50 guns)

Other:
Facing romanian border: 3rd army (Toshev) with 2 infantry divisions (4-5) and various fortress units/garrisons.

1st and 2nd army are the bulk of Bulgarian forces throughout the war:
- 616,680 men and 960 guns in september 1915 (3 armies)
- 697,157 men and 1,459 guns in september 1918 (4 armies)
- 420,597 men for Serbs in 1914 down to around 125,000 after retreat to the coast
Just to say: serbian commanders Stepanovik (2nd army) and Boyovic (1st army, promoted) got their revenge at Salonique in 1918.

This proposed new setup for Bulgaria while neutral..and as illustrated by Dazo's table above, may reflect a better disposition of forces for that country.

[Tanaka]

ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Yeah I think Bulgaria needs slightly different troop locations.

Me personally I always blitz into Serbia and I don't believe my opponent would have a chance to implement any Bulgarian attack. However, it should absolutely be a viable alternative for Centrals to choose the popup option to redeploy their Austrian army to face Russia, and deal with Serbia later. The Bulgarian attack makes this strategy unviable.

I would venture to say that if the Entente ever conquers Bulgaria then that's a huge win for them, even if it were to come at a high price (Serbia's defense collapses, though this is by no means guaranteed). It lowers Centrals NM and permanently takes away a critical early army (and artillery slot).

You would be wrong. I blitzed hard into Serbia in both my games against Old Crow. And despite this pre-patch he pulled off the Bulgarian Gambit masterfully. Our next game post-patch he almost did again it was very close. And yes if Bulgaria surrenders that fast it is such a knock out blow to Central Power morale that it is a game changer. Bulgaria has to be allowed to at least defend herself...

[OldCrowBalthazor]

Plovdiv's corp in Sofia..Sofia's detachment in Plovdiv. The big swapperoo with the editor.

It holds Sofia..and lines up with the OOB that Dazo provided.

[BillRunacre]

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

ORIGINAL: stockwellpete




OK, so you have got that idea covered. Is 3-5% enough, do you think? A second capital sounds like a good idea too. Plovdiv or Varna? I think I would prefer Varna.

Yes..Varna would probably serve well. It won't stop some of us, ahem, 'aggressive' Entente players from striking Bulgaria in a preemptive attack, because it could give us wiggle room in defense of Serbia and further isolate the Ottomans for example. But, it would give the Central Powers player a chance to defend themselves.

An alternative option would be to just have a corp repositioned in to Sofia. Looking at Dazo's Bulgarian OOB chart shows the largest Bulgarian Army Group positioned to strike Nish, which currently is just an open road straight to Sofia. (This is the main avenue to pull off The Bulgarian Gambit.) Also, this repositioned corp probably should be entrenched or have adequate ground cover. Edit: I'm starting to lean slightly to this option but would like to hear from others about these ideas.

Anyway, I personally believe Bulgaria has just as much 'back bone' as Serbia or Romania, who have the chance to have their seat of government moved. Bulgaria won't be in a better position if this is implemented, for they will be even more cut off from Austria-Hungary and Germany, but at least, they can have a fallback position..and hope that they're stronger allies will rescue them.

After thinking about this more and doing some research, I'm leaning more and more that adding a second capital for Bulgaria would NOT be such a good idea for the following reasons.

Bulgaria finally surrendered in 1918 because the Entente finally broke through the Salonika Front..leaving Sofia open. In game terms, this would probably result in the occupation of the city by an Entente unit, and Bulgaria would surrender as is the norm. If the second capital 'fix' was implemented, then the Entente would have to continue on, probably to Varna or what ever location was chosen. This would be way ahistorical.

The way things are currently set up, at least in terms of replicating Bulgaria's historical surrender, the criteria for Bulgaria's (scripted) surrender are:

Germany's National Morale must be below 10% and there are either 2 Entente units within 2 hexes of Sofia or 2 within 3 hexes of central Bulgaria (hex 196,99).

I'm not sure if having a second capital necessarily invalidates this script as it will remain the case that if Germany's National Morale is suffering and the Entente have forces within Bulgaria then the country will surrender.