GC41 Exalted tests the axis allies

[loki100]

ok thanks, just really wanted to be sure I was interpreting you correctly.

on the assumption that you haven't altered too many of the Axis Allied leader scores then my working assumption is you are simply seeing the practical difference that comes from a German leadership chain based around a set of 6/7 leadership scores and the lower values for the Allies?

It doesn't key off morale as such, except in so far as low experience elements are less effective and more likely to disrupt (and again that is partly the leadership chain)

[exalted]

No leaders are modified (game is totally vanilla except for Nm adjustments for axis allies), a few have gained improvements but that should be way too few to matter.

I was under the impression that CV was at least roughly adjusted for the involved leaders isn't it? If they arent your clearly right

From now on I'll track if they are fighting under german command, most except the rumanians have german army and army group commanders but corps is the most important so I'll note that down.

[Stamb]

If you want to waste your best generals then you can try and assign Model for example to some of the axis allies. If they will still lose most of their CV then its game over for them

[exalted]

If you want to waste your best generals then you can try and assign Model for example to some of the axis allies. If they will still lose most of their CV then its game over for them

I actually already have italians under some superb german commanders and Model has been commanding the 1st Rum Armored since forever

But was going to find out who is the worst german infantry commander and give him a corps and place it under some rumanian army

[exalted]

So in the interest of "SCIENCE!" and my curiosity I replayed the same five fights with a couple of different sets of leader arrangements.I was somewhat limited in my AP to how many reassignments I could do this decided the scope of the test.

First of leaders have no meaningful effect on displayed pre-combat CV.

With my current commanders with a range of 5-7 in their ratings the five attacks archived an average of 105.48% of map CV obviously in line with other german performance I've seen so far.

Looking for quite incompetent officers for the corps that are in line with Rumanian ones, I picked Hermann von Hanneken, Alfred Waeger and Karl Sachs from the talent pool, this resulted in a 85% of map CV on the attacks.

Looking for the absolutely worst ones I picked Wolfgang Pickert, Hermann Metz and Gerhard Hoffmann who probably are worse than my Rumanian commanders and certainly not better, this resulted in 92% of map CV on the attack so obviously a few points here and there barely matters when you get this level of incompetent luck is more important.

To attempt to gain Rumanian results I picked the geniuses in the previous tests and reassigned them to the 3rd Rumanian army which was then overloaded by more than twice capacity and on the other side of the map, in turn under the Rumanian Army Group. A complete trash situation so bad it could never exist in the game this resulted in 71% of map CV on the attacks.

In a final attempt to reach Rumanian levels of performance I re-assigned all divisions to the same Corps and that corps to the 3rd Rumanian Army and let the ultimate genius of infantry combat Gerhard Hoffmann command the same fights, this also made a few of the divisions happen to be beyond his command range for extra good performance. To my amazement this actually resulted in no worse results than the previous tests at 71% of map CV on the attacks.

It is harder to test Rumanians under competent officers but I'll get to that later but the conclusion is that you can't archive Rumanian results with German Infantry it is not possible under any circumstances that depend on leaders. Leaders play a part but it does not mean you will average 25% in 14 fights. In 20 fights with the trashiest of the trashy German commanders under impossibly bad circumstances I got at worst 45% of on map CV.

[exalted]

Well I'll return to those statistics later when I find a nice way to go at the Rumanians but currently they aren't really in the position to do so.

So Turn 75 starts with a spot the bug picture or is it a feature picture it certainly made me wonder if it is an exploit or simply something that doesn't work.

Turn 75, Notice the bug....png (669.83 KiB) Viewed 2197 times

Turn 75, Northern front looks okey and the soviets lost a lot of men and tanks against 2nd pzgrp.jpg (681.19 KiB) Viewed 2197 times

There is a shitload of attacks on the northern front including losses of over 2k armored vehicles for the soviets. Still I think my position here is pretty okay here. A few divisions here and there will retreat but there is redundancy and even counter attack potential in the 2nd pzGrp.

Turn 75, Stalingrad...retreating german pzdivisions say it all....jpg (643.17 KiB) Viewed 2197 times

Stalingrad is a catastrophe most of my pzDiv's both italians and germans bounce back from a fierce soviet attack. Stalingrad is a write off now the only question is how much I can bleed the soviets on the retreat and refocusing of the armies in the area.

Turn 75, Caucasus Front...this can go any way....jpg (349.45 KiB) Viewed 2197 times

Technically the Caucasus front looks like it can go either way but lets face the facts, most of the flanks are held by Rumanians the goal here is to keep Krasnodar until or as close to turn 86 as possible to deny the bonus VP nothing else. We are going to retreat out of the area during the winter.

[exalted]

Turn 76.

Turn 76, Moscow front...serious attacks both ways...make them pay for each inch.jpg (692.39 KiB) Viewed 2195 times

Still extremely serious attacks but my counter attack completely destroys the soviet line in front of Moscow as anything that spends its CPP is vulnerable to counterattack. Also essential to destroy soviet formations to force the AI to re-balance its line away from more vulnerable areas.

Turn 76, Voronezh in danger...focus of reinforcements.jpg (390.47 KiB) Viewed 2195 times

The Line infront of Voronezh looks to be in the most serious danger and will be the focus of my reinforcements mostly infantry divisions from the west and possibly eventually some armor moved from other armies if it looks necessary.

Turn 76, Stalingrad...a retreat in progress....jpg (480.68 KiB) Viewed 2195 times

Stalingrad remains a problem but the amount of retreating I can do at no real cost is a lot each hex actually improving my situation as the lines contract. But experienced infantry and panzers are getting pushed back into retreats which is costing moral.

Turn 76, Caucasus...going pearshaped....jpg (383.22 KiB) Viewed 2195 times

I was hopeful for the caucasus for a while but then the AI re-arranged its line by teleporting half a dozen strong units into one of the harbors along the coast...equals I'm **** the only question is how long I can drag it out ten turns probably not but I'll try.

Lets do some more statistics now including both my attacks and all my defenses over the last three turns.

Germans 105% of on Map CV, total of 165 fights.

Germans + Axis Allies 99% of on Map CV, total of 10 fights.

Italians 42% of on Map CV, total of 5 fights.

Rumanians 41% of on Map CV, total of 20 fights.

Hungarians still on 33% of on Map CV, total of 4 fights.

It looks like maybe the first turn of Rumanians and Hungarians was unusually severe as they are doing better but it is still pretty shit.

[Jango32]

You've got an army group as an assault 'army'.

[exalted]

You've got an army group as an assault 'army'.

Yepp !!!

No clue if it actually did anything but it did disappear after two turns, probably something strange going on when 11th Army converts to Army Group Don.

Does the game actually check number of assault armies against the limit? I think I was over the limit for a while and for the last few turns of that it was Army Group Don not 11th army.


So to the actual campaign, I started looking at my situation and then at the actually historical situation in winter 42 and came to the conclusion that most axis players myself included are whiny. In my case I didn't hold Stalingrad, Maikop and Rzhev at the start of the winter but instead held Tula, Ryazan and Tambov. Due to early capture dates I'm still somewhat ahead of historical VP I think.

If I keep any among Ryazan, Tambov, Tula, Voronezh, Orel, Kursk, Kharkov, Rostov and Krasnodar after winter I'm doing better than historical.

Odds of that is well Krasnodar is toast I'm not holding it one turn after 86 even if able, Voronezh and Tambov would be very bloody to keep if it is even possible. Ryazan and possibly Tula would be strategically advantageous to move away from to consolidate the lines. Orel, Kursk, Kharkov and Rostov does seem rather safe.

So my strategy is keeping at least Orel, Kursk, Kharkov and Rostov over the winter regardless of cost, hold Tula if feasible and Krasnodar to turn 86 if possible. Tambov, Voronezh (really should try to hold it to turn 84 but not sure that its worth trying) and Ryazan are all abandon when it gets tough.

Turn 77

Turn 77, Caucasus...not much action.png (874.63 KiB) Viewed 2131 times

My main problem here is not getting cut off from Rostov before I get the Rumanians out, 9 more turns somehow. The 1st PzGrp also have abysmal combat power after a few weeks in winter offensive so I'll hold if I can. Loosing a few Rumanian divisions over it would be acceptable.

Turn 77, Stalingrad retreat in progress.png (1.57 MiB) Viewed 2131 times

Around Stalingrad there is a retreat in progress I've debated with myself if a wild retreat to a line say two hexes from the double rail line on the picture would be more effective since I'm suffering supply problems but at the same time the way I'm going I benefit from forts and reinforcement activation's in nearly every battle and they are costing a lot of soviet soldiers and tanks.

Turn 77, Moscow & Voronezh still intense fighting.png (1.28 MiB) Viewed 2131 times

The lines around Tambov are thinning and loosing combat power with several retreats over the last turns but the real crisis is around Voronezh which has received 7 fresh inf divisions from France but doesn't look like they are going to stop the soviets. Most likely Voronezh will fall in a few more turns and after that a pull back from Ryazan and Tambov will be necessary most likely. Question is should I start preparing a fortified line say between Orel and Kursk or am I too late?

[exalted]

So for turn 78-80.
No pictures for turn 79 they got lost but here is the horrible truth of winter 1942 for the axis.

First some statistics now a total of 523 fights have been fought this winter.
Germans are slipping somewhat towards 103.5% of on map cv, attack or defense are pretty much equal meaning that winning or loosing the fights don't matter since the attacks have mostly been wins and a number of the defenses have been retreats. Not enough of the rest for attack/defense ratios but germans + allies are at 102% probably because the allies add a fairly low amount of CV compared to the german assets in those fights. Hungarians had a lot of fighting in the last few turns going to 20 fights with an average of 30% of on map cv, which is quite horrible. Italians also have had quite a few fights at 27 fights with an average of 50% of on map CV so less horrible but still pretty damn bad considering nearly all italians fight under german officers. Rumanians are doing their part at 45 fights and their average is increasing now at 47% so they really had a horrible time that first week.

Still it is quite clear that you could cut the CV of all axis allies in half and it would be more accurate than it is currently and that is for buffed axis allies.

Turn 78

Turn 78, Caucasus is holding on....jpg (316.92 KiB) Viewed 2094 times

Caucasus looks decent we are doing good here but not for much longer.

Turn 78, Stalingrad...a slow week.jpg (366.01 KiB) Viewed 2094 times

A calm week close to Stalingrad, but the supply situation in the area is horrible even if the soviet advance is very slow.

Turn 78, Voronezh...shit this is going to go bad quickly....jpg (467.43 KiB) Viewed 2094 times

My first surrounded germans are broken out but can't be retrieved, so I hope they rout out of the pocket since the alternative is worse. This also happens on turn 79 making for my first routing germans of the campaign.

Otherwise stiff attacks but also stiff resistance thought I am really feeling the lack of fortifications, will attempt to use the woods and Voronezh as a line eventually.

Turn 78, Northern Front...shit this is getting intense and I'm pulling back somewhat....jpg (667.29 KiB) Viewed 2094 times

Northern front is intense and already between Ryazan and Tambov the german infantry is pushed out of its fortifications which spells doom for this sector. Even If I'm attempting to drag it out as much as possible.

[exalted]

Turn 79 foreshadowed what is happening in turn 80, but not before the events of Turn 80 did I realize how badly it was going in the south.

Turn 80

Turn 80, Cacasus...a lost cause....jpg (288.57 KiB) Viewed 2090 times

The problem in the Caucasus isn't the Rumanians in the south they could have held another few turns maybe even to turn 86 which was my goal but the Hungarians simply folded like a wet paper bag when attacked north of Rostov and initially nice CV values simply evaporated. They need help and that means PzGrp1 can't help the Rumanians so we are pulling back. I'll have to attempt to get those early capture bonuses the Soviets get, back some other way.

Turn 80, Stalingrad, AI version of operation Uranus and axis pull back.jpg (501.12 KiB) Viewed 2090 times

The AI launches what I've been expecting for some while a general assault on my northern flank of the Stalingrad operation mostly held by hungarians and italians who simply retreat in nearly all cases except for some Italian Airborne and 7th SS Mountain who acted as reserve line. Not wanting my main force in the area to be cut off I started retreating at a higher pace. No clue if it will work but at least I won't get cut off.

Turn 80, Voronezh - Tambov, Fierce fighting and Von Manstein to the rescue.jpg (307.52 KiB) Viewed 2090 times

My defense of Voronzeh however has been reasonably successful and the support of von Mansteins LVI Pz Corps is looking like holding Voronezh might be possibly maybe I'll only loose Krasnodar, Tambov and Ryazan in the winter which would be kind of a big win compared to history.

[exalted]

Going to jump ahead to Turn 84 basically I'm just retreating and a lot of soviet attacks push my weaker units away from the front.

Turn 84

Turn 84, Southern Retreat can I stop....png (1.46 MiB) Viewed 2042 times

The southern retreat has reached Rostov with all units saved but the Stalingrad force is so weak I'm not sure I can actually stop the soviet advance at least not until mud. At least they are fighting for most hexes.

Turn 84, Northern retreat looking good maybe.png (1.05 MiB) Viewed 2042 times

I've abandoned Ryazan and Tambov to save elements of the 4th and 6th army the later having fought well but mostly reduced to <3 CV.

The reinforced 17th army has actually done good around Voronezh and any early capture bonus for the city is already lost for the soviets and I might be able to hold it. Its been reinforced with two fresh motorized divisions under the command of II SS Corps and Manstein in the north is doing good work even if Totenkopf actually retreated from an attack this turn. What is the world coming to.

To the CV calculations the Germans have fought 630 fights for an average of 102,4% of on map CV.

Germans and allies have done 41 fights for 103% of on map CV.

Hungarians have done 30 fights for 43,5% CV but some of those fights have been with Italians who seem to perform better so Hungarians alone are at a lower 36%.

Italians are trending upwards with 54 fights for a 55% of on Map CV.

Rumanians at 53 fights for a 53% of on Map CV.

No clue what is making all the axis allies fighting better perhaps it is the supply situation as the lines contract around better supplied areas, but the Rumanians in Caucasus where pretty much the best supplied force earlier during the winter....hum this is weird.

Turn 85, Force Balance.jpg (55.62 KiB) Viewed 2037 times

All in all the winter has probably not been as bad as I've felt it, there have been a lot of casualties but on both sides the Soviet forces are now solidly below 6 million again and the axis are still pretty close to where they started at 4.75 not that bad.

[exalted]

Turn 85

Turn 85, Start of turn...O shit.png (775.58 KiB) Viewed 1999 times

Well that was something I didn't expect, at least not there. 7 Divisions isolated that I pretty much have to break out or at least relieve so they can rout out instead of surrender.

Turn 85, Southern Front, well maybe there is hope....jpg (605.02 KiB) Viewed 1999 times

The axis allies actually does break into the pocket but no real assets are near that can hold it open. Lets just hope the soviets rout the units in the pocket since the alternatives are worse.

Turn 85, North, Central Fronts...retreat and problems....jpg (711.83 KiB) Viewed 1999 times

Well and then there is the northern front...well that doesn't look good. There are about two german and three italian divisions between the soviets and Kharkov. Will have to re-deploy forces in this direction most likely once more it will be up to the 1st PzGrp question is can I move them and let the axis allies and the remnants of the stalingrad offensive hold the south?

Maybe I should just capitulate and reduce the soviet settings to 110...will have to think about it as I don't think I can stomach playing on the defensive for the rest of the war. I need at least a 43 offensive to keep interest I think and usually the 43 offensive is the most interesting part of the game in my opinion.

[exalted]

Turn 87
I jump two turns ahead since while there is a lot of minor attacks and movements basically I move a hex back or so where I need but not much else will happen until mud I'm guessing.

Turn 87, Southern Front...slow re-deployment but Kharkov is still under threat...as is Voronezh flank.png (1.64 MiB) Viewed 1957 times

The problem with Kharkov will be removed as the 1st PzGrp moves into position but it isn't quick in deep snow.

However Kursk may be threatened as 17th Army is outflanked so II PzGrp and LVI Mot Corps will attempt to blunt that advance or at least slow it down, I'd rather loose ground north of Voronezh rather than south of it.

Turn 87, Some nice improvments.png (22.49 KiB) Viewed 1957 times

Also I would love to know how the improvement mechanism works, it feels like it is happening more often and to the "right" generals.

Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't be more fun to have lower rating for most generals on all sides of the war but a greatly increased improvement rate but I guess that such stuff is hardcoded.

[exalted]

So lets go through the last of Blizzard which did last until turn 93 which I found a bit excessive, expected March to bring with it at least some decent weather but no luck. I'm basically fucked unless my supply system starts working now that snow levels are being reduced. Most divisions are reduced to rediculously low CV except for the axis allies which actually built a decent defense around rostov.

Turn 89

Turn 89, Northern Front...maybe it will work out....jpg (719.92 KiB) Viewed 1920 times

I was still optimistic at turn 89 everything was going according to plan or something like it. The problem is that poor CV / Supplies during blizzard snowballs badly and for each turn it becomes much much worse unless you start getting supplies / rest. Which isn't happening in this scenario

Turn 89, Central Front, Kharkov and Kursk are in danger but 1st PzGrp surrounds huge infcorps.jpg (450.86 KiB) Viewed 1920 times

At least we have some victory as a 35+k men infantry corps is is surrounded by the reasonably rested PzGrp 1 still snow and blizzard makes it painful to move my elite but it is that or loose Kharkov and Kursk and possibly more.

Turn 89, Southern Front, Rostov looks secure..jpg (412.62 KiB) Viewed 1920 times

The axis allies fortress in the south look safe I even occasionally counter attack and shift divisions around some.

Turn 90

Turn 90, Southern Front, Well...at least the Rumanians hold the line. .jpg (481.34 KiB) Viewed 1920 times

I guess I can't mock the Rumanians anymore their part of the line has been rock solid for a while now while the germans fall back with <1 CV in many cases. I'm going to loose Voronezh but the time bonus has run out so the real goal has already been accomplished. Would have been able to hold it much longer but the situation near Kharkov looks dire indeed.

[exalted]

Turn 90, Northern front this is going to hell....jpg (721.67 KiB) Viewed 1915 times

So that northern front isn't going so well anymore notice that a large teleporting army of soviet corps have been spotted around Smolensk (panicked response) pzGrp2 has been dispatched but move like slugs over the landscape. Loosing Smolensk isn't in the cards but stopping some of those corps formations isn't possible as well so "tear owns hair" what am I going to do.

Turn 91

Turn 91, Central Front, might be salvagable....jpg (369.69 KiB) Viewed 1915 times

Well the central front is complicated but unless supplies start to flow towards the panzers its not going to matter that half the german elite is in the way.

Turn 91, Northern Front, sux...2nd PzGrp attempts to disrupt the soviet advance...4th army retreats from Tula....jpg (579.38 KiB) Viewed 1915 times

Well PzGrp2 attempts to fight its way towards Smolensk with varied results...4th army abandoned Tula which hurts I was hoping to hold the city.

Turn 93, End of Blizzard.jpg (486.01 KiB) Viewed 1915 times

In late march at turn 93 blizzard at last ends and I take a look at how well we did, if I expected the soviets to get stopped like they usually are at the end of blizzard I would be quite satisfied but I do not expect them to be stopped before mud at least not entirely.

[exalted]

Turn 93, End of Blizzard, statistics.png (587.64 KiB) Viewed 1912 times

The situation looks like it might be salvageable. The Soviets have been loosing men and AFV like crazy during the blizzard but I know German infantry is going to be less useful in 43 than it was previously even if Pz's are going to only grow stronger.

Have basically stopped following german CV outcomes since I expect with over 600 fights that the average will be close to but likely slightly above 100%, basically making german CV the benchmark with 1 CV on map being worth 1 CV in a fight most of the time.

Germans with allies are about the same with 58 fights averages even a bit higher than germans in average at 105.7% probably because quite a few good commanders operate in the south where those fights are mostly occurring.

Hungarians are getting better at 44% for 33 fights, but if you remove those where it gets Italian help it is reduced to 36%.

Italians have had 64 fights and for the amount of retreats and impossible fights they have gained 51,5% of their on map cv.

Romanians have 65 fights and have gained 52% of their on map cv.



What is next...well unless I get some supplies to my troops in a few turns I'm completely finished, the last few turns have been painful to play. Maybe the additional axis allies overloaded my supply system but I don't think so it simply collapsed as the center and north had more and more fighting each turn. Assuming that I get some control over the situation I'll continue at least until the end of 43.

[exalted]

Turn 93

Holds no real surprises, the retreat continue.

Turn 93, The retreat continues.jpg (692.07 KiB) Viewed 1874 times

1st PzGrp, LVI PzCorps and II SS PzCorps does not look like enough to stop the soviets from Kharkov and Kursk but I'll try.

2nd PzGrp will probably hold Smolensk since the supply situation in that area of the map is considerably better than anything east of it.

My infantry in between those two forces are so weak they can't make any feasible defense and I'd be surprised if not a few german divisions around Voronezh eventually get surrounded eventually since they only get a single hex a turn currently due to ZoC.

Basically german high command is seeing a loot of doom with a potential for as bad results as history the loss of Orel, Kursk and Kharkov isn't impossible but I think the only thing that really matters now is the weather so all german soldiers are instructed to pray for rain and mud three times daily.

[exalted]

So with turn 94 was the last turn of real winter after which mud and increasingly decent supply situations turned the communist horde back. Turn 95-97 was marked by an absence of attacks on both sides something that that basically saved the german forces which could have shattered even worse under a stronger continuous soviet attack. Still soviet manpower on map is low and german manpower on map is increasing.

Turn 94, Voronezh...yepp that isn't going to end well.jpg (393.53 KiB) Viewed 1850 times

First of all the retreat from Voronezh is going to be interesting I should probably loose a few divisions here but actually end up pulling it off during the mud weeks, getting everything out. One of the occasions when the AI inexplicably is to meek in its approach when it goes berserk at other unpredictable times.

Turn 94, Kursk and Kharkov...well maybe but the Soviet has the better CV values....jpg (412.9 KiB) Viewed 1850 times

Soviets pull back somewhat in this area at the end of blizzard and the soviet front looks less dense. So both Kursk and Kharkov are actually saved, they could as easily have been lost.

Turn 94, Orel and Smolensk...2nd PzGrp secures Smolensk..maybe.jpg (722.8 KiB) Viewed 1850 times

2nd PzGrp and the infantry of the northern armies take up new positions with reasonable depth attempting to keep the soviets away and it seems to work.

My plan for 43 is actually going back to the basics, I'm not likely going to increase my high water mark since I'm 59 VP away from it currently. So the goal is the cripple the soviets so that they can't archive the historical results, this means I need to hold on to especially Orel (111), Stalino (116), Smolensk (turn 118), Zaprozhye (121), Dnepropetrovsk (123), Kiev (124). So keeping those cities as long as possibly and certainly until the time limit goes out. I could actually retreat from Rostov already but the defensive position there is good and my next line is at Stalino which I want to build up and not retreat to until closer to turn 116. I should probably also build a line somewhere west of Orel since thats a city I don't really need to hold for very much longer.

[exalted]

So turn 98 and most of the mud is gone and the axis fighting spirit has been restored with most divisions no longer understrength or completely under supplied.

Lets look at the situation first

Turn 98, Force Balance.jpg (54.68 KiB) Viewed 1848 times

We are actually at above 5 million axis forces against 5.7 million soviets. Odds that I actually like, even if more and more forces will eventually have to leave for the west and Italy I guess.

We are also eventually going to loose the Italians which will be a bad day, but we have a lot of delayed Italy/NA events so hopefully that will happen a lot later than normally.

Turn 98, Smolensk - Kursk, Infantry reorganizing still retreating from Voronezh.jpg (602.55 KiB) Viewed 1848 times

The forces in the north have mostly reorganized with the pull back from Voronezh continuing one hex at a time. Thought I would loose 5 or so divisions here but so far not even a rout. Most german divisions are recovering CV at a rapid pace and digging in so we can keep this line for a while at least.

2nd PzGrp saw the opportunity to surround a Guard Inf Corp something that I couldn't hold back from most likely it will surrender next turn.

Turn 98, Kharkov - Rostov, end of mud and panzers unleashed.jpg (486.08 KiB) Viewed 1848 times

The commanders in the south went wild when they realized how sparse the soviet lines north of the line where. Several corps and divisions surrounded and most likely surrendering next turn as the Italian, Hungarian and German mobile forces break far behind the lines. This looks like we can take some revenge for the terror of the winter of 42.