Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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Culiacan Mexico
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: Mogami
Looks ok to me as long as you also allow the Allied player to give orders to his EXISTING TF on turn 1.
I have no problem with the Dutch moving naval assets around to counter such an invasion, yet wonder if in the game and historically if that is what would happen?

Admiral Hart order 57th Destroyer Division to Singapore to support the British regarding the invasion task force sited south of Saigon and heading west, but that was a transport group and combat escort. Admiral Hart had on more than one occasion abandoned naval bases in the Philippines because they were too vulnerable to Japanese air attack. Would he have given the same orders regarding an invasion task force supported by carrier aircraft? I am not so sure.

Would a player send his destroyers and light cruisers against such a fleet, perhaps, but I wonder if it won’t be used to just speed up the flight from the DEI. By the way, I have no idea how many existing task force the Allies have as I haven’t played that side yet.


PS. I was pleasantly surprise to find this fleet movement actually underway in the game. [:)]


"I HAVE JUST ORDERED THE DESTROYERS AT BALIKPAPAN TO PROCEED TO BATAVIA ON THE PRETEXT OF REST AND LEAVE. ACTUALLY, THEY WILL JOIN YOUR FORCE."

Admiral Thomas C. Hart USN
"If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains set lig
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR
I offered that option to moses except I said he could sortie the entire Dutch navy to oppose me at Kendari and KB would go to PH. He was informed that the fleet would arrive turn 2. What better intel could he have. I just wanted to prove that the IJN had the capabilities to take Kendari on the 8-9 Dec 41 if they had so chosen. There was basically nothing that could be done to prevent it IMO.
The Dutch could have tried for a surface engagement, but it would have been against a superior Japanese Naval force, plus they would most likely have to face air attack both inbound and outbound. The Dutch strength was centered more around Batavia and not Cerberus, so air support would have been limited. A risky move at best.

As the Allied player, I am not sure I would attack under these circumstances.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by 2ndACR »

I know it would probably be futile, but his argument was my invasion fleet was bound to be spotted and engaged.
So I offered him a way to try and stop it. He just feels that unsupported attacks should not be allowed. Some of mine are, but alot of mine are not. It may be meager in alot of places, but those are areas that are under my protective umbrella of LBA. Which using Nells and Betties reaches almost to the south of Borneo. Almost all of the PI and almost to Batvia.

If he likes Mogami's idea of only if it has aircover, then alot of my rapid advance is still viable. Due to the reach of my bombers or my CV's.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR
I know it would probably be futile, but his argument was my invasion fleet was bound to be spotted and engaged.

So I offered him a way to try and stop it. He just feels that unsupported attacks should not be allowed. Some of mine are, but alot of mine are not. It may be meager in alot of places, but those are areas that are under my protective umbrella of LBA. Which using Nells and Betties reaches almost to the south of Borneo. Almost all of the PI and almost to Batvia.

If he likes Mogami's idea of only if it has aircover, then alot of my rapid advance is still viable. Due to the reach of my bombers or my CV's.
I don’t think the Japanese could have done it historically, but I think your rapid advance is cool.

The Dutch, British, and Americans had significant amount of surface combat vessels in the DEI supported by a well distributed bunch of reconnaissance aircraft so operations without surface combat escorts or outside of supporting airpower would have been the acceptation. Outside of the DEI, where Allied air power and surface combatants were not expect the Japanese historically were less cautious: such as the invasions of the Gilberts.

I am not sure any ‘requirements’ will fill the desires of some, as they seem to what a reenactment of the war.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Thayne »

ORIGINAL: Culiacan Mexico

I am not sure any ‘requirements’ will fill the desires of some, as they seem to what a reenactment of the war.


Different people have different tastes, and there is no justification for casting aspersions on others because their tastes differ from yours.

Some people have a taste for winning a game. Others have a taste for simulating a historic conflict. Neither preference is superior to the other. I am in the latter camp.

Historically, there was no need for the Dutch to defend Kendari on December 8th because the option of the Japanese attacking it that early in the war is only marginally less implausible than having the USS Nimitz show up at Hawaii on December 7th. One requires a warp in space-time, while the other requires a warp in Japanese thinking that is only marginally less implausible.

Japan and the Allies alike knew that the battles will be fought for Singapore and Manila. That is why the divisions were placed around these targets, and not others. It is only in the context of a game that Kendari becomes a significant target. For somebody who wants to win the game, it is an important first move. For somebody who wants to simulate a historic conflict, it makes little sense.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by moses »

In reply to 2ndACR

I'll try once more against my better judjment.

The problem with launching large numbers of simultainious attacks long distances from JP normal shipping routes is that they would have been spotted days out and would have been clearly hostile. More then likely these forces would have been engaged prior to dec 7 following a few cerimonial shots across the bow. I know some will say that the allies would have just sat and watched until the Jp troops actually started to unload but at the very least it would have to be expected that surprise would be lost theater-wide.

Now as for Kendari: To have any hope of pulling it off you have to at least send in your carrier force stationed at Palau. The reason is that you have to expect I will see you coming at least two and more probably 3 days out. In the restricted waters NE of Kendari it will be very easy to track you. This is especially true if you have no carrier since my patrol aircraft can simply circle over your TF on a rotating basis.

You have to assume that I have some air power. Given a day or so in the game and in reality I could tranfer a few dozen attack aircraft to engage your transports. Not enough to stop you probably but I'd get some hits slowing you down further and this far from port a good hit is almost as good as a sinking.

My subs could get into position and given the exact location of your force would likely score some successes.

Finally I have a fair sized surface force that I can assemble to attack the landings. The Dutch have 6 CL's, 16 DD's, and 12 PT's. This is the ideal case for the Dutch Navy. You just sit 100 miles or so off while your aircraft monitor the situation. When it looks like the landings are getting underway you engage. The Dutch navy now has the possibility to inflict a huge disaster on the JP TF. With the landings stopped and numerous damaged ships they have to try and and run the gauntlet back through my subs and attack aircraft.

BTW your Nells are useless in this situation since they are at extreme max range and the only recon you have are whatever search planes exist on your crusiers. These would be easily supressed by land based fighters.

Now if you bring the carrier you have some chance of success although I still like my chances. I'll still see you a couple days out and have time to assemble my surface force. When the landings begin I have the best opportunity the dutch are ever going to get at a surface engagement at fair odds. I may win or lose but I if I win it will be a disaster for the JP because of his distance from base. If I lose I still will have damaged and sunk more Jp ships then would have been possible if a more prepared and rational invasion had been conducted.

Now by exploiting the first turn move rules the JP player has another option. Pop into the invasion hex on turn one. Now because of your perfect turn one intell you know I have only 2 CL's and a couple of destroyers that can possibly engage your force. You know that I have no strike aircraft in the area. You know I have not one of my 15 subs in position. So its easy. You probably need 3 CA's and 5-7 DD's to be pretty sure my force will be crushed if it tries to interfer. You know it will take a few days for me to expand that force significantly. You know exactly how much ground force you need to win Kendari in one turn--heck you've probably practiced the invasion several times.

So here we go--Pop into Kandari port on turn one. (Turn two really doesn't matter much since I cant get much else there). Turn two ground combat wins the hex. Turn three planes tranfer in immediately establish air superiority and my TF's depart. Since Kandari generates it own supplies you don't even have to supply the hex.

Now I have two problems with this strategy:

1. The whole JP plan was based on surprise which made essential restrictions on when all their secondary invasion forces departed. If you totally ignore this historical reality then the least that should be done is to turn the first turn surprise rule off.

2. I don't see how this could be a fun game playing as the jap. If I win a game I like to think that it has to do with some level of skill, creativity, and planning on my part. I may be wrong but I think I could play any of the expert playtesters and by ruthlessly exploiting the first turn move rules drive them out of the SRA in fairly short order. (BTW this is not a challange as I think it would be boring). So where's the challange. I guess the goal is to get the 4-1 VP auto-victory and say I win. But then I sorta cheated now didn't I.

If you think the Kandari operation is doable then I think you should try it. Set up your task forces and start them toward Kendari. Just set their destination one day out on turn one and then continue on the next 3 or 4 days. Without the carriers I think you will suffer a serious setback. With the carriers I still think its very risky and of course you carriers don't get to kill all the ships fleeing the PI. Win or lose at least you've actually fought the battle.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by mogami »

Hi, I don't hold with saying it can't be done because the historical personages would never have done it. Thats why we are playing. However I don't think one side should be unrestricted by history and say the other side has to stick with it. (Like the Banana does)
Non Historic turn 1 means just that. Both sides can issue orders. On non Historic turn 1 I allow the allied player to giive orders in China (they are already at war)(The AVG belongs to China command meaning it can move)
I really like that idea about Japan using extended move. It it does to send invasions then turn 1 surprise should be turned off. (If Japan confines the move to only historic (existing but modified) TF then she keeps turn 1 surprise. No turn 1 surprise means the Allies can do anything they want PERIOD.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by moses »

Yes I think thats basically what I'm saying.

A viable historical strategy for Japan may have been to launch a fairly large number of invasion forces toward their targets counting on allied confusion and reluctance to initiate hostilities to allow them to close significantely on these targets before hostilities are initiated. This plan would be designed on the assumption that tactical surprise was NOT likely and that some allied reaction prior to the attack was possible. My point throughout this thread has been that if this kind of attack is launched then the first turn surprise rules should be turned off. Also the allied player should be able to move his units, form TF's, launch airstrikes, etc as you stated.

You can't have both a surprise attack and a theater wide day 1 blitzkrieg.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by mogami »

Hi, There is a time differance between Hawaii and the SRA. Hawaii and Manila are connected via undersea cable (laid in 1907) Historiclly PI and SRA were not caught by surprise. (There was a foul up that resulted in PI aircraft being caught on ground but they had lauched as soon as word of PH strike arrived. )

The Japanese airforce in SRA have to wait for sunrise. By that time the ALlies in SRA were aware the war had started. Also the Allies had agreed that if Japanese TF known to be at sea and steaming south crossed a line then they would consider themselves to be at war.
This decision was made days before PH strike. If a Japanese TF had crossed the line prior to Dec 7th then PH would have been already in a war condition the fleet would likely have been at sea preparing to execute Orange. THe best thing Japan can do (and what they did do) was refrain from moving too far south. (They moved to where they contiune once war began and reach objectives AFTER their airforces had the chance to destroy Allied air units.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: Thayne
Different people have different tastes, and there is no justification for casting aspersions on others because their tastes differ from yours.
You are kidding right? To counter your unsupported claims that the allies would be tipped off, I presented historic documents to show the allies were well aware of the situation. Did you address that issue… no. Instead you went on about … “That is not a mind set that sets well with the simulation gamer” and “This is a wargaming strategy, not a simulation gaming strategy”
ORIGINAL: Thayne
Some people have a taste for winning a game. Others have a taste for simulating a historic conflict. Neither preference is superior to the other. I am in the latter camp. Historically, there was no need for the Dutch to defend Kendari on December 8th because the option of the Japanese attacking it that early in the war is only marginally less implausible than having the USS Nimitz show up at Hawaii on December 7th. One requires a warp in space-time, while the other requires a warp in Japanese thinking that is only marginally less implausible.
Some people, including myself, want to try different strategies than were done historically. For example, if playing the Japanese we want to protect our merchant shipping, do our utmost to retain pilot quality, expand in China 1942/43, commit our force in mass and not piecemeal… none of which was or even could have been done historically. There are number of reasons why, but I will limit it to just two… we do like to play the game, but at the same time we wonder what if?

What if the Japanese did protect their merchant fleet?
What if the Japanese had maintained pilot quality and concentrated on getting the best air craft out early?
What if the Japanese had handled their assets Land, Air and Sea in a different manner?

You are obviously not interested in this which is fine.
ORIGINAL: Thayne
Japan and the Allies alike knew that the battles will be fought for Singapore and Manila. That is why the divisions were placed around these targets, and not others.
Odd, that was not your contention on page 2.

Thayne – “the 'tipping off' I am not talking about is not that Japan plans to attack eventually, but when and where those attacks would fall.”
ORIGINAL: Thayne
It is only in the context of a game that Kendari becomes a significant target. For somebody who wants to win the game, it is an important first move. For somebody who wants to simulate a historic conflict, it makes little sense.
If you wish to repeat the same mistake the Japanese did historically… no problem we know the outcome. There are lots of books on the subject.

PS. I thought the original poster ‘ltfightr’ had some good points and agreed with this from the original post by ‘moses’ “attack dozens of locations on turn one ruining the historical feel of the war historical feel of the war”. What I did object to was the rational “100 % guarenteed to be detected losing surprise across the board” and “The United States was not 'expecting' an attack. Rather, it was 'suspecting' an attack. There was no certain information that Japan would move against even Malaysia and the Philippines”. I stated that historically, surprise (for the most part) was long gone; and to back this up I supply documentation.

Instead of discussing the issue using facts, you responded with “some people are”, “Those of us who”, etc. I don’t know why you choose this path, but you did.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: moses
Now as for Kendari: To have any hope of pulling it off you have to at least send in your carrier force stationed at Palau. The reason is that you have to expect I will see you coming at least two and more probably 3 days out. In the restricted waters NE of Kendari it will be very easy to track you. This is especially true if you have no carrier since my patrol aircraft can simply circle over your TF on a rotating basis.
Agreed.
ORIGINAL: moses
You have to assume that I have some air power. Given a day or so in the game and in reality I could tranfer a few dozen attack aircraft to engage your transports. Not enough to stop you probably but I'd get some hits slowing you down further and this far from port a good hit is almost as good as a sinking.
In the game… yes, but historically unlikely. Air transfer in the game is not realistic. Mass movement of air assets over hundreds of miles and then attacking the same day, especially the Dutch, is not realistic.
ORIGINAL: moses
My subs could get into position and given the exact location of your force would likely score some successes.
Maybe, I don’t know where the Dutch placement is. However, there would be very little time to react so unless they are close… the DEI will be invaded but which base… the may not impact the situation.
ORIGINAL: moses
Finally I have a fair sized surface force that I can assemble to attack the landings. The Dutch have 6 CL's, 16 DD's, and 12 PT's.
The Dutch would strip Batavia to defend Cerberus against an invasion fleet backed by carriers hundreds of mile from the main air bases in Batavia? That seems unlikely, and historically when the Japanese did invade Kendari it fell without such an action. Kendari, while important to the Japanese, was less so to the Dutch.
ORIGINAL: moses
If you think the Kandari operation is doable then I think you should try it. Set up your task forces and start them toward Kendari. Just set their destination one day out on turn one and then continue on the next 3 or 4 days. Without the carriers I think you will suffer a serious setback. With the carriers I still think its very risky and of course you carriers don't get to kill all the ships fleeing the PI. Win or lose at least you've actually fought the battle.
While I do not agree with everything you have said, you make some good points.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: Mogami
Hi, There is a time differance between Hawaii and the SRA. Hawaii and Manila are connected via undersea cable (laid in 1907) Historiclly PI and SRA were not caught by surprise. (There was a foul up that resulted in PI aircraft being caught on ground but they had lauched as soon as word of PH strike arrived. )

The Japanese airforce in SRA have to wait for sunrise. By that time the ALlies in SRA were aware the war had started. Also the Allies had agreed that if Japanese TF known to be at sea and steaming south crossed a line then they would consider themselves to be at war.
This decision was made days before PH strike. If a Japanese TF had crossed the line prior to Dec 7th then PH would have been already in a war condition the fleet would likely have been at sea preparing to execute Orange. THe best thing Japan can do (and what they did do) was refrain from moving too far south. (They moved to where they contiune once war began and reach objectives AFTER their airforces had the chance to destroy Allied air units.
[:D]

The best argument, in my mind, against an early Kendari attack is that it jeopardizes the Pearl Harbor attack. No one in the DEI is going to openly confront a carrier backed invasion force, but I think the Fleet at Pearl Harbor would have changed its stance. A Kendari attack is just too bold not to cause an effect at Pearl.
"If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains set lig
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: moses
My point throughout this thread has been that if this kind of attack is launched then the first turn surprise rules should be turned off. Also the allied player should be able to move his units, form TF's, launch airstrikes, etc as you stated.

You can't have both a surprise attack and a theater wide day 1 blitzkrieg.
I would have no problem with the Dutch trying to take actions to counter detected Japanese invasion forces, as was done historically by the Americans and British regarding the Malaya invasion, however it should be recognized that these actions were slowly executed and failed to come to fruition.

PS. As I have stated, I don’t think the Japanese could launch +30 attacks at the start of the war. I don’t believe the Japanese, while they obviously had the resources, had the ability to manage such a huge under taking.
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Thayne
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Thayne »

Culican Mexico:

Actually, my comments about different people with different tastes was made in reference to the quoted disparaging remark "I'm am not sure any 'requirements' will fill the desires of some'...

Against your presenting historic documents and other types of assertions, my answer is this:

Manila and Singapore were the historic locations of the initial conflicts for a reason. If you remove the historical context that pretty much requre that Japan attack these places, then consistency would also demand that the Allies not defend these places.

That is to say, if Japan is given the freedom to select its targets based on game-parameters rather than historic parameters, then the Allies should be free to do the same thing. This would imply giving the Allies the liberty to redeploy all Philippine forces to any American base, redeploy all British and Australian units in Manila to any British or Australian base. If one player is allowed to shift focus to an in-game-only relevant attack, then the other player should be allowed to shift focus to an in-game-only relevant defense.

Also, if Japan is going to be allowed to make plans and send ships outside of the realm of 'plausible deniability', then the game should actually start on or around December 5th (instead of December 7th), with the Allies given the liberty to react to those moves.

I, too, am interested in 'what if' scenarios. However, there is a difference between 'what if the USS Nimitz were to be teleported back in time and show up at Hawaii on December 7th', and 'what if Japan had protected its merchant fleet'. Some things fit the model. Other things are outside the scope of the model. 'What if we remove the historical reasons for Japan to focus their attacks on Manila and Singapore' should be accompanied by 'What if we remove the historical reasons for the Allies to focus their defense on Manila and Singapore'.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by moses »

One misconception that keeps coming up seems to be the idea that the allied response to the attacks is going to be sluggish. Thats not really true. Uncordinated or confused maybe and you can say their reponce to the warnings was sluggish. Once the attacks were underway their response was actually quite rapid and led to disaster in Malaya as the BB's were sunk. Had the US been able to find the JP carriers futher disaster would have followed as our carriers were desperately trying to find the JP CV's.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by moses »

Air tranfers of large numbers of aircraft to be used the same day is unrealistic in most instances although it could occur with prior planning. Transfer of 1 or 2 dozen aircraft to be flown the same day is quite normal and realistic. You don't need a lot of aircraft to harass the invasion force if they don't have fighter cover but you've alrady saifd your bringing the carriers.

As for the possibility of the Dutch commiting their whole force at Kandari. My goal as the Dutch would be to somehow get a naval battle at fair odds somewhere. To that end you centrlize your fleet and get your air and sub forces trying to locate and identify the enemy TF's. If you see a CV, a BB, several CA's and a dozen destroyers along with the transport force coming to Kendari then you stand off at a distance and let your air and subs pick at the force and maybe an opportunity will develope. If not you beat feet and live to fight somewher else. If the transport force coming to Kendari is inadequate then you react as in my previous post.
Thayne
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Thayne »

If one wants to play a game of 'what if' in a historical context, it is relevant to note that professional historians have rules for this type of game.

One of the rules is that, for any proposal of 'What if X', such a proposal does not make any sense unless X is something actually considered and debated at the time.

Why?

Because these options exist in a certain social and psychological context. To investingate a proposal of the form 'What if X' where X was inconceivable at the time requires changing the social and psychological context. If the context changes, then there is no telling what else might have changed.

This points to a contradiction used through much of the debate so far. To refer to historical documents as evidence of a position requires the assumption that the context remains the same. Yet, in that context, the moves in question were inconceivable. If we make the moves in question conceivable, then we must alter the social and psychological assumptions of the time, and the documents being cited become irrelevant. In that altered context, those documents quite possibly would not have been written, or would have been worded differently, or would have been interpreted differently. These documents are totally irrelevant in a debate where the basic social and psychological context must be assumed to be different than it was.

Where opening-day attacks on DEI become conceivable to the Japanese, it makes sense to allow the British, for example, to redeploy their Malaysia garrison to the DEI for protection. It makes no sense to counter this by saying that the British would never have done such a thing when invaiding DEI in the first days of the war is already something that the Japanese would not have done.
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RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: Thayne

Culican Mexico:

Actually, my comments about different people with different tastes was made in reference to the quoted disparaging remark "I'm am not sure any 'requirements' will fill the desires of some'...

Against your presenting historic documents and other types of assertions, my answer is this:

Manila and Singapore were the historic locations of the initial conflicts for a reason. If you remove the historical context that pretty much requre that Japan attack these places, then consistency would also demand that the Allies not defend these places.
Historically the Japanese have the initiative and were able to pick their points of attack, and the ability of each country to react to these attacks was very limited. An invasion fleet spotted on 2 December 1941 headed for Malaya, doesn’t give the US and Britain enough time to react with Naval forces, let alone air or ground units. Earlier in the year (1941), Churchill tried to get the US to transfer some P-40s to Singapore under the pretext of ‘training’, but for a number of reasons it fell through. As long a the Japanese retain a significant threat in Formosa… the Americans are pinned; and the same hold true of the British in Malaya if the Japanese maintain a significant threat in French Indo-China.

As I stated, Malaya and the Philippines are still attacked, but a more methodic approach is used in their conquest. Historically, two Divisions are slated for Malaysia, while 1 1/2 Divisions are set to land in the Philippines. The only adjustment I make with these forces is minor and is in regard to landing locations, while I increase the number of air groups directly supporting these attacks: more Sally’s are moved into bases in French Indo-China and Nells and Betty’s in Japan are sent to Formosa.

If the historical ground forces that attached Malaya and the Philippines are still used and they are backed with airpower greater than was used historically... I can not agree with your assertion that it “demand that the Allies not defend these places”. Admiral Hart had long ago abandoned any hope of stopping the Japanese invasion of the Philippines, but the Army Air Corps was not going to make major adjustment in deployment with the threat of invasion hanging over the Island; and any redeployment of the Army itself would have taken weeks for a pre-war United States. The British were not going to transfer Force Z to protect the DEI while the threat of invasion remained, and British air assets were known at the time by the commanders to be woefully inadequate.

In my opinion, if the Japanese player attacks both the Malaya and the Philippines with historical force levels or more… I don’t agree the Allied player doesn’t have to defend them.


PS. Most of the DEI was lightly held by the Dutch as they concentrated there strength in Java, and because of that, the Japanese used mostly small invasion forces to conquer the region… brigade or smaller. Excluding Java where both the 2nd and 48th Division were used either in part or whole. I see little reason to use the Divisions slated for historical invasions in Malaya and the Philippines anywhere else.
ORIGINAL: Thayne
That is to say, if Japan is given the freedom to select its targets based on game-parameters rather than historic parameters, then the Allies should be free to do the same thing. This would imply giving the Allies the liberty to redeploy all Philippine forces to any American base, redeploy all British and Australian units in Manila to any British or Australian base. If one player is allowed to shift focus to an in-game-only relevant attack, then the other player should be allowed to shift focus to an in-game-only relevant defense.
If the British or American had determined that no threat existed to either the Malaya or the Philippines… I would agree, yet both are targeted in the game with larger force than were used historically on turn one. With both locations being target with historical force levels neither country felt they had the flexibility to make the movement you suggested… British troops to Australian. How would that be logical when each is targeted with greater that historical levels?
ORIGINAL: Thayne
Also, if Japan is going to be allowed to make plans and send ships outside of the realm of 'plausible deniability', then the game should actually start on or around December 5th (instead of December 7th), with the Allies given the liberty to react to those moves.
Neither the British nor the Dutch wanted a war with Japan; and for obvious reasons. A Japanese force headed towards the Indian Ocean [;)] is provocative in nature, but is impossible to stop with the forces that would be available: Force Z is not leaving Singapore with an invasion task force headed that way. Admiral Hart has on more than one occasion abandoned bases that were threatened by Japanese air power, so it seem unlikely that he would haveattacked a force with carrier airpower and a stronger surface fleet. But even if he was of the mind to attack, Washington was not, as they wanted the Japanese to initiate any hostilities. Historically, the Dutch had a month to reinforce Kendari, yet when the Japanese did invade there was no Dutch surface fleet to be found…rightfully so. The Dutch strength, what it is, lies at Java.

I don’t see that there is any direct action that would have been taken in the region: the British Naval commander believing the invasion fleet is headed for Malaya doesn’t even get to sea until days later. Allied reactions during peace time were more often than not sluggish both the decision process and implementation… no effective action would have been accomplish historically.

Now having said that, I do believe that such a move by the Japanese would have caused a change in the stance of the Fleet at Pearl Harbor and jeopardized that attack. I think you can have one or the other… a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor or a blatant attack on Kendari, but not both.
ORIGINAL: Thayne
I, too, am interested in 'what if' scenarios. However, there is a difference between 'what if the USS Nimitz were to be teleported back in time and show up at Hawaii on December 7th', and 'what if Japan had protected its merchant fleet'. Some things fit the model. Other things are outside the scope of the model. 'What if we remove the historical reasons for Japan to focus their attacks on Manila and Singapore' should be accompanied by 'What if we remove the historical reasons for the Allies to focus their defense on Manila and Singapore'.
In the game I attack Malaya and the Philippines with forces stronger than used historically, but I ‘know’ that economic locations are vitally more important to me. It is often said that Japan went to war to capture the resources of the DEI, so I don’t agree that by me assigning priorities to economic targets in that region it equate to teleporting the USS Nimitiz.
"If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains set lig
Culiacan Mexico
Posts: 600
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2000 10:00 am
Location: Bad Windsheim Germany

RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: moses
Air tranfers of large numbers of aircraft to be used the same day is unrealistic in most instances although it could occur with prior planning. Transfer of 1 or 2 dozen aircraft to be flown the same day is quite normal and realistic. You don't need a lot of aircraft to harass the invasion force if they don't have fighter cover but you've alrady saifd your bringing the carriers.

As for the possibility of the Dutch commiting their whole force at Kandari. My goal as the Dutch would be to somehow get a naval battle at fair odds somewhere. To that end you centrlize your fleet and get your air and sub forces trying to locate and identify the enemy TF's. If you see a CV, a BB, several CA's and a dozen destroyers along with the transport force coming to Kendari then you stand off at a distance and let your air and subs pick at the force and maybe an opportunity will develope. If not you beat feet and live to fight somewher else. If the transport force coming to Kendari is inadequate then you react as in my previous post.
Historically, the Dutch made little effort to defend this location. The invasion force landed on the night of 23-24 January 1942 and by the evening of 24 January 1942 Kendari was fully occupied; and most of the KNIL were captured. Even though Kendari Air Base was considered the best in the Dutch East Indies and was immediately put into operation by the Japanese 21st Air Flotilla, there was no naval attack by the Allies. How people respond or act inside the game is often different.

Sasebo Combined Special Naval Landing Force was carried by six transports.

Convoy Escorts

Light Cruiser - Nagara (flagship).

• 15th Destroyer Division
destroyers- Natsushio, Kuroshio, Oyashio, Hayashio

• 16th Destroyer Division
destroyers- Yukikaze, Tokitsukaze, Hatsukaze, Amatsukaze

• 21st Minsweeper Division
minesweepers- W 7, W 8, W 9, W 11, W 12

• 1st Submarine-chaser division
submarine chasers- Ch 1, Ch 2

• 11th Seaplane Tender Division
seaplane tender Chitose
seaplane tender Mizuho

Covering Force
• 5th Cruiser Squadron
heavy cruisers- Nachi (flagship), Hagur,
• 6th Destroyer Division (2nd Group)
destroyers- Ikazuchi, Inazuma

Air Group
• 2nd Carrier Squadron
aircraft carrier Hiryu
aircraft carrier Soryu

Note: The 2nd Carrier Squadron didn't directly support the operation, but were in the area and bombing Ambon Island during the landings at Kendari.


PS. I like to look at historical operations and then do ‘what ifs’ to them. For instance, 2nd Carrier Squadron is not available in early to mid December 1941, but a couple of CVL were. The historical surface fleet was 2 CAs, 1 CL, and 10 DDs… and more than that is available early in December. The Japanese considered Kendari “a very important air and naval base, especially significant for the war effort in advancing south, Kendari airfield was an important objective from which planes (bombers) could interdict routes between Australia and the Netherlands East Indies, also able to bomb major centers on east Java and Timor Islands, like for instance Soerabaja and Koepang.”

The Japanese attacked in mid-January, but could they and should they have done it earlier? I am not sure. I know that since I am going to place considerable more emphases on economics than what the Japanese did historically, Kendari must be taken well before it fell historically.
"If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains set lig
Culiacan Mexico
Posts: 600
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2000 10:00 am
Location: Bad Windsheim Germany

RE: Wish for a new scenario Non Historic start but with limits.

Post by Culiacan Mexico »

ORIGINAL: Thayne

If one wants to play a game of 'what if' in a historical context, it is relevant to note that professional historians have rules for this type of game.

One of the rules is that, for any proposal of 'What if X', such a proposal does not make any sense unless X is something actually considered and debated at the time.

Why?

Because these options exist in a certain social and psychological context. To investingate a proposal of the form 'What if X' where X was inconceivable at the time requires changing the social and psychological context. If the context changes, then there is no telling what else might have changed.

This points to a contradiction used through much of the debate so far. To refer to historical documents as evidence of a position requires the assumption that the context remains the same. Yet, in that context, the moves in question were inconceivable. If we make the moves in question conceivable, then we must alter the social and psychological assumptions of the time, and the documents being cited become irrelevant. In that altered context, those documents quite possibly would not have been written, or would have been worded differently, or would have been interpreted differently. These documents are totally irrelevant in a debate where the basic social and psychological context must be assumed to be different than it was.

Where opening-day attacks on DEI become conceivable to the Japanese, it makes sense to allow the British, for example, to redeploy their Malaysia garrison to the DEI for protection. It makes no sense to counter this by saying that the British would never have done such a thing when invaiding DEI in the first days of the war is already something that the Japanese would not have done.
The British abandon Singapore to defend the DEI!? [X(]
"If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains set lig
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