The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

Tomorrow i'll reply to your comments guys...now i'm falling asleep and have only the strenght to make a small resumé.
 
June 19-20 1942
 
Rader sent 1000 planes against Karachi this time. more than 300 zeros on sweeps and then 340 bombers escorted by 240 Oscars...my CAP did what it could but, despite inflicting to the enemy sweeps heavy losses, we weren't able to stop the flow of bombers...94 planes destroyed on my side against 210 on his...the ratio is shifting in his favour! My b17s tried to pay a visit at Surat...at 22k feet to avoid the AA...only 17 planes destroyed on the ground for the loss of 5 B-17s...again a bad ratio.
 
It's the KB in the Marshalls! One of my subs spotted a strong TF composed of a CS, 2 fast BBs and some 10 DDs...pretty sure is part of the KB fleet!
 
However now i'm too tired to write anything more. Tomorrow will describe these crazy days of furious indian battles...
 
Night guys...and thx

[Prydwen]

Do you have any house rules about night bombing?  You could send your 4E bombers in at night and maybe catch a bunch of his planes on the ground.  It's a two edged sword though.  With his numbers advantage he has enough to split his forces between day and night and put some hurt on you around the clock.

ItsAMadHouse

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Rader sent 1000 planes against Karachi this time. more than 300 zeros on sweeps and then 340 bombers escorted by 240 Oscars...my CAP did what it could but, despite inflicting to the enemy sweeps heavy losses, we weren't able to stop the flow of bombers...94 planes destroyed on my side against 210 on his...the ratio is shifting in his favour

With FOW you probably got more like 140 of his.

You can't beat him in the air with 1942 models in the numbers he can bring when he's not pressed anywhere else. You're just burning precious supply and exchanging VPs.

[Canoerebel]

GreyJoy's numbers could be right if he's aware of how to read the combat reports, the Intelligence Screen reports, and how to monitor the combat replay. If he's scoring three to one against Japan with total losses that high, his opponent has to be feeling it a bit. GreyJoy's certainly been taking his lumps gamely, so it's admirable to see him fighting back.

What could be interesting is the possibility that the KB is in the Paciific after all, giving GreyJoy carrier parity in the Arabian Sea. If he can push convoys - especially troop reinforcements - from Aden through to Karachi, who knows what might happen?

[Bullwinkle58]

All right, I'll just ask then. GreyJoy, are you using the intel reports and doing math, or are you reporting the combat report numbers pure with FOW included?

While I'm asking, about how many ships capable of carrying LCUs do you have at Aden, Abadan, Karachi, or in transit between these?

[Canoerebel]

[:)]  Good questions.  (I hope my previous comment didn't come across harshly - darn the inability to communicate clearly electronically - as it wasn't intended that way).

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[:)]  Good questions.  (I hope my previous comment didn't come across harshly - darn the inability to communicate clearly electronically - as it wasn't intended that way).

Not taken that way here. It's all good.

But if you would entertain one more question, one I've asked others in PM recently--what do you think GJ should be doing in the macro sense re an air war in India? I'm on record as seeing it as a waste of supplies he's going to need to hang on in Karachi and wait for relief, even more so when he's running a 100+ PP deficit per day due to skipped withdrawls and could be in the negative thousands of PPs pretty soon. Do you think it's a wise move or not, Oh India Defense Guru? [:'(]

[Canoerebel]

Well, at some point he has to dig in and fight as best he can with what he has.  Perhaps this is the time and method, though I see your point.
 
If rader continues to batter his airfields, GJ might need to withdraw most of his bombers.  And if he reaches the point where the fighter battles are no longer productive, then perhaps he does the same with his fighters.  But if he's getting 3:1 kill ratio with the enemy sometimes losing hundreds of aircraft in a day, I say keep it up until something changes.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, at some point he has to dig in and fight as best he can with what he has.  Perhaps this is the time and method, though I see your point.

If rader continues to batter his airfields, GJ might need to withdraw most of his bombers.  And if he reaches the point where the fighter battles are no longer productive, then perhaps he does the same with his fighters.  But if he's getting 3:1 kill ratio with the enemy sometimes losing hundreds of aircraft in a day, I say keep it up until something changes.

Well, it's 3:1, or Something:1 of very large numbers. It's like my old Accounting prof saying, "Margin is nice, but you don't put percent in the bank." His pools won't hold out at 75-100 per day lost, but he could be 2000 PPs away from being able to activate a US division by then.

My bigger question is on his ship count. He's said he's lost about 35 merchants coming out of the Aden channel. If he plans to haul the five big reenforcement units to Karachi he needs to be very careful of his ships now. I doubt he can count on sneaking any into the Mideast through Mombassa.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow

Honestly, I am slightly confused. If you are convinced you act on solid intel, it may be necessary to change plans. But

a) I was under the impression that you had come to the conclusion that your opponent's long range naval attack planes in the region are crack, deadly and take apart amphibious TFs. Now, you want to send them in without air cover.

b) can a "light and slow invasion movement" still achieve what the purpose of your operation was? Or parts of it? Can you provide a list of your original aims and those results the operation is still supposed to provide?

Just my 2cts.

Hartwig

My main goal was to distract him from his major goal and force him to divert some assets from India. The presence of the KB (presence that i'm pretty sure about the more and more every day) in CENTPAC already means something for me. If i can keep a decent pressure on his permeter at Marshalls i think i've already achieved my first objective of this campaign.
The other goal for sure was to create a breach into his defensive perimeter using surprise -and the fact that he haven't reinforced those islands before- to jump in and conquest them fast...but due to my mistakes (too realy recon that awoke his attention) and his capacities not to get caught with his pants down anywhere have substantially destroyed my plans for this second goal.
I know Rader knows the mechanisms of the game very well. I understand your point mate, but i really think a wise man now should work on his possibilities in the pacific now considering the presence of the KB as a fact and not as an option.

The light invasion for sure won't be a game-changer...but hopefully can force him to dedicate some assets to this area (he need to build his defences in the Marshalls now)...assets that could be sent somewhere else...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: ADB123

If i manage to create a level 1 AF there i can think about moving in some 50 fighters and estabilish a foothold in the Gilberts.

Are you aware that a Level 1 Air Field can only support defensive Air operations, such as CAP? You can't fly LR CAP or Sweeps out of a Level 1 Airfield.

What could happen if you put 50 good fighters on a Level 1 Air Field? Well, for one, IJN bombardment TFs can start to happily sail in, LR Capped by Zeros, and close your Air Field. Then, when your air field is closed, long range Bettys and Nells can start to have target practice on your troops, grounded air planes, emergency supply TFs, and so on.

Does this sound far-fetched? It doesn't to one of my Allied pbem opponents who happily invaded Tarawa in mid-42... [:D]

He now has some very good troops stuck on an atoll-prison... and this means that they aren't attacking somewhere else that is more useful to the Allies...

Take some time to think through what you would do in your opponent's place, and how you could take advantage of mistakes like this...

Good luck.

I got your point [;)] Thanks.
I won't dedicate more than a base force, a infantry BN and a couple of seabees for a place like Abenama...but consider he has not built tarawa yet and most of his engeeneers are in India, along with his base forces...a level 0(2) AF can be built up pretty fast not only to level 1...but also higher...for sure the first weeks will be decisive...and i know if he wants to shut it he can...but again, if he dedicates his BBs and his precious planes to keep this little atoll shut down, it means that those BBs are not covering Iwo...or the Solomons.... At the moment in the Pacific i have enough troops to threaten more than one single spot...He needs the KB fully operational acting like a fire estinguisher if he wants to keep me honest (he can do that)...but as long as the KB is not in India and if my actions are keeping the KB far away from the major theatre...well, i'm happy

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: ItsAMadhouse

Do you have any house rules about night bombing?  You could send your 4E bombers in at night and maybe catch a bunch of his planes on the ground.  It's a two edged sword though.  With his numbers advantage he has enough to split his forces between day and night and put some hurt on you around the clock.

ItsAMadHouse

I thought about that.... we have a HR that says no night bombing below 20k feet...
So i really think it's worthless to use my 4Es in that role now...better to force him to keep some of his fighters on CAP instead of sending them all on sweep/escort.
The real threat now is the AA...even at 22k japanese AA is very very effective...pretty weird isn't it!? [:o]

Anyway i have more than 84 B-17s in pool now...i can master some losses and i will use my 4Es aggressively.
In the last turns he kept only some 30 fighters on CAP (nicks)... a decent and lucky raid and i can smash his AFs... i still think i can fight this battle!

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

All right, I'll just ask then. GreyJoy, are you using the intel reports and doing math, or are you reporting the combat report numbers pure with FOW included?

While I'm asking, about how many ships capable of carrying LCUs do you have at Aden, Abadan, Karachi, or in transit between these?

I'm using the information screen which should be accurate and not affected by FOW.
Since the Battle of India has begun i've lost 166 fighter frames while he lost 460. I've got 40 pilots killed...while i cannot know the numbers of his pilots killed i bet they are way more than mine.

At Aden and Adeban i've got 62 transport ships...i think enough to ferry those reinforcements.

[GreyJoy]

CR and Bullwinkle,
 
  the air losses in India are very high for sure. My P-40Es pool is down to 166, while my hurricanes pool (all models included) is around 56. I won't be able to sustain this rate of losses for a long period...but consider that Rader got nearly 500 air losses in 4 days (2 turns)...especially the last turn he has lost 166 crack zeros...his daitais must have a very low morale and i don't think he has infinite amounts of supplies, even if he's conquered the southern india industry!...feed more than 10.000 AVs and more than 2000 a/c surely request a huge amount of supplies.
 
I have nearly every week a 20k supplies convoy running for Karachi. Not enough to survive but enough to prolongue my fighting capabilities.
 
The yesterday Jap raid didn't achieve much...Karachi AF is operational at 100% again and my fighter defence is again at their normal numbers (250 fighters for Karachi).
 
I really think i'm doing the right thing in accepting the fight here. I saw with my own eyes that i can hurt him in the air. Maybe i'll lose the attrition battle but he cannot lose hundreds of crack pilots every day. ...and if he crosses the LOD...oh boy...imagine the spitfires flying over Karachi [:D]
 
Seriously now. My defences are still stiff. And my nails are still there for the moment. I'll keep on fighting

[GreyJoy]

JUNE 21-22 1942
 
Rader stood down his planes to lick his wounds and to R&R for this turn...i'm using these two days to breath and reorganize my defences. I've reallocated my AA units and gave some rest to my 4Es.
2 DDs have dared to get too close to Karachi and this time they got smashed by my torpedo bombers. They are now with the fishes [;)]
 
In the Marshalls my subs keep on reporting of Vals and Kates attacking...after we've spotted yesterday those fast BBs i'm pretty sure the KB is around moving now back towards Truk.  My cats at Abenama reported a huge number of ships (DDs and AKs) moving up and down on the Marshalls...i'm pretty sure he's reinforcing all his islands...that's ok for me right now. Cannot stop this movement nor risk anything with the KB around. i'm reorganizing and unloading my units...no need to keep them aboard.
 
I'm thinking now about a new plan...just thinking so i'm not elaborating anything...but in a couple of days i'll come up with some ideas...
 
Tomorrow i'm sure the battle over India will start again...we're ready to fight. I'm collecting planes and pilots everywhere on the map to get them into the pool and send them to India.
 
 

[GreyJoy]

June 23-24 1942
 
A bad day today.
Japanese arrived again in masses against Jodpur. My air forces there was tiny and we paid the price of being overnumbered...46 planes lost against 45...a 1-1 ratio which is damned bad.
Tojos started to fly and they showed their superiority over hurricanes and P-40s.
He needs 4 days in a row to close Jodpur AF using 300+ bombers, while Hydebarand and Karachi cannot, at the actual state, be closed with these numbers.
He's using some 350 fighters very day...numbers that i cannot hope to achieve.
Anyway he's far from annihilating completely my Indian Air Army...and it doesn't seem he wants to cross the LOD anytime soon...
Think we still have chances. My AVs in India are slowing encreasing. New troops are flowing from Aden and my tank forces are now half equipped with Stuarts and Velentines...if i manage to hold in the air i think i can defend Karachi on the ground. I'm positive!
 
As ADB said, he came with a bombardment TF to smash Abenama...i'm not worried cause there i only had some minor units that have already been saved in fragments so i'm not really losing anything important.
 
still thinking about what to do in the pacific...should i follow Jeff's suggestion and redeploy at Pago pago and Suva? Or should i keep everything concentrated at PH ready to move?

[GreyJoy]

June 25-26 1942
 
Another 2 days of passion in northern India.
This time the target was Hyderabad (S).
4 waves of 40 zeros swept the base, decimating my CAP.
the last sweep came from 91 zeros at 20,000 ft...
Then it came the bomber wave, escorted by 140 Oscars. 340 Bombers pounded the airfields, bringing destruction.
Despite having 7 AA units with lots of heavy AA guns, we only shot down a couple of bombers that flew at 13,000 ft...the inefficiency of my AA is really strange
 
Then my 4Es made a retaliation mission over Surat, pounding the base and fighting against a decent CAP and against the terrible japanese AA.
Lost 14 4Es in the process but manage to destroy 53 enemy planes on the ground.
 
Hyderabad is already active and close to level 9 AF...
His bombers are unable to close my bases (well fortified and with TONS of engeneers) and he must be losing hundreds of pilots in the process.
I'm not that sure that i'm losing this battle of attrition.
 
The results of the last 2 days are comfortable. Almost 3-1 in my favour. Now Karachi has more than 330 fighters ready to meet him...let's see.
 
In the meanwhile the flow of supplies and men keep on going from Aden to Karachi. His subs are becoming less effective due to my Air ASW which is now constant and effective.
 
During the last days a british Recce unit has arrived, along with a strong british base force (with radars) and the Eastern Army HQ...not bad.
 
 
Colombo and Trico both fell , leaving Cylon completely in his hands. Now he only has to cross the LOD cause there's nothing left to conquer for Japan south of Dehli.
 
 

[GreyJoy]

.

[Canoerebel]

Strange that he hasn't imposed an unbreakable blockade on Karachi.  Strange that he apparently doesn't have the KB there - or in its absence such a massive network of ships plus closing Karachi's airfield - to prevent you from bringing in supplies and reinforcements.  I would think a Japanese player's paramount consideration in India would be to shut down any reinforcements so that you only have to deal with what's there.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Strange that he hasn't imposed an unbreakable blockade on Karachi.  Strange that he apparently doesn't have the KB there - or in its absence such a massive network of ships plus closing Karachi's airfield - to prevent you from bringing in supplies and reinforcements.  I would think a Japanese player's paramount consideration in India would be to shut down any reinforcements so that you only have to deal with what's there.

Well, i know i don't have enough experience and i know i've showed many times my not-understanding of many game mechanisms...but i think you all are understimating the strenght of the actual allied position. Karachi can count on an airforce that still has 500 fighters, 50 torpedo bombers, 70 4Es, 26 wellingons, 250 between Blenheims and hudsons and some 20 patrol planes (plus a number of light bombers). Then there are the british CVs hidden in the Aden Channell and the whole RN waiting to pop up if needed....for sure he can defeat me...but the risk is not that small and we all know that if the KB takes a beating japanese chances of stopping an allied advance in the pacific are really small.

However the battle has just begun and he still has the strenght to put me down...