Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[HansBolter]

In NoPac I give preference to developing Shemya over Attu as it can be built just marginally to a 4E usage level and B24s can reach Paramashiro from it.

[Canoerebel]

The gaps will be filled later. For now, it was more important to have a redoubt at the end of the chain of islands.

[T Rav]

In my old unit the phrase was "You can't land at Shemya until you land at Shemya." I never went there, but apparently it is a tough windy place.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: T Rav

In my old unit the phrase was "You can't land at Shemya until you land at Shemya." I never went there, but apparently it is a tough windy place.

That pretty much describes all of the Aleutians, doesn't it?

[Canoerebel]

1/26/43 to 2/9/43

Singers: The fortress meekly surrendered around 1/29, overcome by a 3:1 attack. Over the last six months, I lost 18 subs involved in the bucket brigade, plus many others damaged. I didn't enjoy the long scrolling message of units that surrendered nor Axis Sally's broadcast.

China: No attacks on the MLR. Dave seems to have pulled back a bit from the Sian front. I wonder if he's moving towards the Kukong front, far to the SW, but have no confirmation yet. I'll know in two or three turns if the fourth and last of the Wenchow corps is going to make good its unlikely escape.

The IO Theater: Allied troops are prepping. I think Dave is expecting a move somewhere in this theater, so I won't take any major action unless KB shows up far away (or until the date when the Allies have the advantage in carriers).

The Oz Theater: No enemy action. Allied units are dispersed and preparing for small moves, here and there. Engineers are finally moving to occupy and build Coen and Portland Roads. Torres Island is still mine, though the garrison has long been out of supply.

SWPac: No enemy moves, so the Allies continue to work on infrastructure/garrisons at Luganville, Efate and New Caledonia.

SoPac: In the month since the invasion of Tarawa, no enemy carrier force has appeared. Based on recon and enemy ship movements it looks like the Marshalls are woefully defended. He's trying to address that now. In the meantime, I've built up Tarawa and Tabituea substantially and hope to occupy Makin in a day or two. I have troops prepping for the Marshalls, but expect Dave to bring in sufficient assets to turn this into a tough meeting engagement that should take many months. I want to fight out here, even while I try to avoid stumbling blindly into an ambush.

CenPac: Midway port to level 3. I've pulled out the Bobcats. A tank battalion will arrive in two days.

NoPac: The long winter objective to occupy, garrison and build a long string of islands is complete. Ships will try to deliver more supplies while things remain quiet. I don't have near-term offensive plans here. I wonder if Dave does?

SigInt: Every indication is that he's building his defenses in depth. Reports of troops at a base near Kaeving, at Kendari, at this interior place and that interior place. But no reports that would suggest a looming offensive. That doesn't mean he's not planning one - but it's unlikely that extensive prep is involved, meaning he'd likely have a hard time against the many defensive redoubts built during the past year.

Allied Plans: I hope to pick off some exposed enemy bases over the coming months, but mainly I'm looking for Dave to come out and fight somewhere where the odds are even - the Guadalcanal stage of the game. It's time to attack and attrition in someplace like the Aleutians or Marshalls.

[T Rav]

Runway at Shemya was a factor as well, with some aircraft landing, but due to weather, running off the runway. But as you say, the Aleutians have hard weather much of the time.


T Rav

[Encircled]

Running B-29s out of Shemya in my current game.

Got to be careful with the fatigue though (more a B-29 problem than Shemya to be fair) but it does mean holding it you can hit Japan properly as soon as B-29s arrive

[Canoerebel]

Having a B-29 base in the Aleutians or the Marianas should persuade your opponent to attend to his defenses in depth. And that's about all it does. A strat bombing campaign from either location (or locations of similar distance) would lose far more aircraft than it would gain points, at least against an experienced player. In order to strat bomb effectively, you've gotta get close. Formosa is "okay." Parts of China are "okay." Sikhalin Island is "pretty good, especially against Hokkaido." Korea and vicinity is best.

[Canoerebel]

2/10/43 to 2/14/43

Tarawa & Vicinity: I think a meeting engagement will develop here. The invasion caught Dave by surprise, as his Marshalls islands are lightly garrisoned. The early battle in which Takoa was clobbered apparently left him without a decent surface combat force in the vicinity, and his airfields are small. Since Allied engineers built Tarawa large, he's being cautious at the moment. Two USN DDs savaged a bunch of xAKLs and PBs at Jaulit on the 10th, probably making him more reluctant to take chances. USN sub near Truk reported enemy carrier plans, which might be carriers inbound. Tarawa is very strongly held and the Allies are about to re-invade Makin, which is very weakly defended. The invasion force is strong enough but poorly prepped. A well-prepped RCT will assault Abemama in a few days. The Allied carrier force is hanging around on the periphery. I'll fight here, though he may come in overwhelming numbers.

China: The fourth and last of the old Wenchow corps made it to the Chinese MLR. These escapes were small matters but quite unexpected. No enemy assaults on the MLR. Daily enemy bombings at Kukong and Changsha.

Bay of Bengal/DEI: No enemy offensive stirrings, that I can detect.

Oz: No enemy stirrings, that I can detect.

SoPac: Luganville has about 180 AV behind nearly 7 forts with 65k supply. Dave shows no sign of venturing further forward, but if he does, this is the primary speed bump.

CenPac: Allies have pulled Bobcats out of Midway (going to Wallis Island) and are about to transfer the Midway base force to Kure dot hex. Armored battalion replaced them, creating the max-anticipated garrison.

NoPac: Trying to get as much supply to forward bases as possible, on the chance that Dave triggers a spring offensive. None of the Allies garrisons are impregnable, but the overall defensive scheme is solid.

[jwolf]

Kudos for saving all of the survivors from Wenchow. For the big strategic picture that may or may not really matter, but it's a nice morale boost both for you and your e-troops in China. [:)]

[BBfanboy]

You disrupted his early invasion plans, especially with Singapore. Feb. 1943 is much too late for the Japanese to contemplate new conquests - it will cost them more than they can gain. Dave seems loss-averse and therefore risk-averse. Hard to win (or even fight) a war without risking stuff.

[Encircled]

Oh definitely

Forces him to commit more than he'd wanted to Northern Japan, and weakens him elsewhere.

As a partial consequence of that, my B-29s are now based on Formosa. [;)]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Having a B-29 base in the Aleutians or the Marianas should persuade your opponent to attend to his defenses in depth. And that's about all it does. A strat bombing campaign from either location (or locations of similar distance) would lose far more aircraft than it would gain points, at least against an experienced player. In order to strat bomb effectively, you've gotta get close. Formosa is "okay." Parts of China are "okay." Sikhalin Island is "pretty good, especially against Hokkaido." Korea and vicinity is best.

Are Japan's night fighters really that much better in the hands of a player compared to the AI?

[Canoerebel]

My expectation would be that any asset will be better employed by an experienced and gifted player than it would be by a less experienced player or by the AI. Night fighters are only one aspect of defense - flak, House Rules, distribution, pilot training, etc. will each have an impact. Players should be better able to utilize these effectively than is the AI.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My expectation would be that any asset will be better employed by an experienced and gifted player than it would be by a less experienced player or by the AI. Night fighters are only one aspect of defense - flak, House Rules, distribution, pilot training, etc. will each have an impact. Players should be better able to utilize these effectively than is the AI.

I understand all of that, but is the difference in efficacy so great as to make a night bombing campaign from distance ineffective?

Any bombing campaign launched from the Marianas or China, as I have done from Tinian and Hangchow for a year, must be conducted at night, even against the AI, as the AI is no slouch at placing multiple hundreds of multiple fighter types at HI bases.

My B-29s have to fight their way through dozens upon dozens of radar equipped night fighters, yet sill managed to run up 32k+ victory points and come near to completely destroying the industrial complexes in Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Is this something that truly can't be done against a thinking opponent? It would seem to me that the only discernable difference between a night fighter squadron assigned a night cap mission by the AI and one by a player would potentially be the experience and skill levels of the pilots.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

My B-29s have to fight their way through dozens upon dozens of radar equipped night fighters, yet sill managed to run up 32k+ victory points and come near to completely destroying the industrial complexes in Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

I haven't gotten to this point yet in a campaign, but wouldn't it be hundreds instead of dozens if going against a human opponent, especially if PDU is on? That's a big difference. Dozens of fighters is nothing for massed 4Es.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

My B-29s have to fight their way through dozens upon dozens of radar equipped night fighters, yet sill managed to run up 32k+ victory points and come near to completely destroying the industrial complexes in Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

I haven't gotten to this point yet in a campaign, but wouldn't it be hundreds instead of dozens if going against a human opponent, especially if PDU is on? That's a big difference. Dozens of fighters is nothing for massed 4Es.

Night fighters cannot fight en masse like day fighters so I am not sure you can effectively employ hundreds of NFs in one place. Anytime I have seen Combat Reports of NF intercepts only a few are shown attacking the raid. Anyone see anything different?

[Anachro]

Accepting that, I was taking Hans to mean all he sees is dozens and dozens of fighters in CAP over one place. If he means hundreds but dozens at a time in any given combat event, then I withdraw my earlier statement. Also, strange that you can't employ large numbers of NF's. Does that mean you can have 100 on CAP but only 15 would appear in the combat? Seems somewhat strange, but useful to know for my Japan game.

[Canoerebel]

I've never seen hundreds of night fighters over a single base. I have seen a couple of dozen. That and flak and balloons and distance are enough to do bad things to B-29s properly crewed. No way a player would score 32k Strat points by bombing from the Marianas or Shemya. And whatever he did manage to score would be partly offset by lost-bomber points.

[Anachro]

Balloons can be avoided by staying at 6k altitude or above, so no reason to do 5k runs as I think marginally effective over 6k.

Baloons
The Balloon effect is determined by maximum value of (a) plus (b) below. The overall maximum of the sum is 9.
(a) Balloons are present in a base if the AF + port > 6. The value is the fort level of the hex.
(b) Balloons can be added to a base/LCU by creating a device of type BALLOON. The value is the number of devices. [not currently in use]

They affect aircraft flying below 6000'.