The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

CV Victorious is scheduled for removal in 33 days. She's a long way from San Francisco. But I'll keep her with Death Star until Death Star returns to Pearl. That might be ten days. It might be weeks. But she's not going anywhere as long as Death Star is in Indian Country. Once DS returns to Pearl, I'll weigh cost versus benefit. I'd sure like her to participate in the (possible) invasion of Wake Island, but the PP cost may be too steep. If so, Victorious will head to San Fran whenever she happens to make Pearl.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Too much risk for too little reward. Roi-Namur is a big Japanese airfield, but the threat is manageable with Death Star controlling the skies. I don't have enough Clevelands and Fletchers to create a new TF and risk it that far out. Too many things could go wrong. It could get hung up and pounded by Japanese strike aircraft.

If the need was great enough I'd work out a way to hit Roi-Namur. But right now, with Kwaj airfield trashed, the situation is acceptable.

I'm risking good ships all over the place. Risking more to hit Roi under present circumstances just doesn't seem profitable.

I think you're right to sit back and breathe a little. You're not late on a timetable. It's still early fall 1943. There's no reason to lunge. He is the one with time against his OOB. Kwaj/RN is nice to have; taking both removes a lot of the sub threat east of the Marshalls. It makes him focus a lot more on Ponape, the gateway to Truk. And so forth. Between now and January you get a waterfall of ships. Just keep on keeping on.

Edit: Seems I read Wargamr's mind.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the encouraging words, wargmer and Mr. Moose.

I think I'm going to switch my look just a bit. My carriers have been loitering in the same vicinty for probably a week now. I don't think John will attack, but he's had time to plan and coalesce his forces if he wants to. Remaining (almost) stationary for too long isn't a good idea, so I'll mix it up a bit.

Death Star will move to near Jaluit. This will also allow the CV Victorious TF to visit that port (let's see if sorties will replenish - I think so). Also, this will allow the BBs to replenish main gun ammo under close protection of carrier air.

[HansBolter]

I strongly recommend getting your replenishment carrier squadrons operational in the manner they were intended for.

A couple of replenishment CVEs in range of the death star, or even a couple of replenishment squadrons based in the Marshals, would go a long way toward alleviating the bite of the carrier air losses.

[Canoerebel]

Hans, I agree. This is the first time I've ever been in a sitaution in which CVE replenishment groups would have served nicely.

Until now, I've always felt that it was more important to use every available flight deck for fighting purposes (especially extra CAP). Carrier battles are usually decided in one day, so that replenishment of aircraft really isn't an issue.

But in this weird campaign, replenishment is very much an issue. A number of time, carrier fighters have ended providing a bit of LRCAP for nearby bases. Against good George squadrons, this has resulted in a bit of attrition in the ranks.

On the other hand, I can use the islands to replenish, though not as quickly. It takes a few days for disabled aircraf to be ready.

All of this is an unusual circumstance I hadn't encountered before, but I'll keep it in mind for future campaigns.

[BillBrown]

I haven't actually done it, but someone posted that the VR squadrons will work from land bases also. They just have to be in range.

[BBfanboy]

Your AE should guarantee that carriers can replenish sorties. How many carriers depends on how much each one needs to replenish and how many ops points the AE has left - I am not sure if CVs are first in the queue for replenishment or if surface ships would replenish first. The port + naval support can handle up to about 6" ammo, the CAs and BBs will need the AE.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I haven't actually done it, but someone posted that the VR squadrons will work from land bases also. They just have to be in range.

Correct, though I found out when a torp into a CVE made it a good idea to evacuate.

[Canoerebel]

KB suddenly shows itself near Wake Island. How great is the menace to the merchant TFs retiring from the Marshalls to Pearl Harbor? At first glance their lead seems insurmountable, but that really isn't the case when I count hexes and calculate KB moving at 9 hexes per day.

[obvert]

It looks dangerous but if he moves in you still have ti e to cut him off with your CVs. This is to your advantage either way. If he moves into the Marshalls, you have LBA to support. If he moves to strike Amphibs, he might even get 5-10 but would risk losing the KB in deep Pacific territory. It's not good to have damaged CVs out there for the IJN.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

It looks dangerous but if he moves in you still have ti e to cut him off with your CVs. This is to your advantage either way. If he moves into the Marshalls, you have LBA to support. If he moves to strike Amphibs, he might even get 5-10 but would risk losing the KB in deep Pacific territory. It's not good to have damaged CVs out there for the IJN.

Or you could just sprint the APAs and AKAs and take the system/engine damage in exchange for getting out of danger. Depends on the fuel situation.

Time to move your subs back eastwards as well.

Rushing back to engage KB has the advantage that its strikes will be split among the many targets while yours will not, but then you lose LBA support too. With your fighter groups not replenished yet that could be a problem. So many factors, so little certainty - great theatre!

[Canoerebel]

Yup, "the horns of a dilemma," and all that. You do a nice job of articulating the fact that so many variables can enter into a decision. And, by the way, my APAs are all green on fuel, but not quite to the point where they can stand two or three turns of full speed. So, on the possibility that KB might show, I sent a three-AO replenishment convoy south of Pearl a few days back. That way I can run east or southeast at full speed and then replenish fuel. I didn't think it would be necessary, but I'm glad I did.

[ny59giants]

We both know how much John loves to go out and sink Allied ships of whatever size even when there is really no strategic or even a tactical one to do so. So, is this move east of Wake Is to go after your LOC between the Marshalls and Pearl? Is it to draw your CV into battle away from LBA that you both have been after in the Marshalls? If so, he will also strike with strong SC TFs in the Marshalls once the Death Star is away. How will you count this? He will believe that all that experience gained in northern Sumatra by his warships will overcome any numerical advantage that you may have left there. Meanwhile, you could use those big, nasty B-24s to cause him some confusion someplace, IMO.

[witpqs]

Sinking APA (and to a lesser extent AKA) is strategic at this point, because the fire hose of APA production does not yield fruit until later on. At this point losing a bunch of APA puts a pinch in your amphibious operations. Not saying it would be fatal, but it is real.

As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

[JohnDillworth]

Sinking APA (and to a lesser extent AKA) is strategic at this point, because the fire hose of APA production does not yield fruit until later on. At this point losing a bunch of APA puts a pinch in your amphibious operations. Not saying it would be fatal, but it is real.

As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

Boy, John is burning tons and tons of fuel and not getting much out of it. If he chases the merchant fleet he may have to expose his AO's . You have more good options than bad, John could make some pretty bad choices here

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

That's what I said - they could be in harm's way if John's hunting them. But I do think the APAs are too fast and too close to Pearl to be in real danger.

I also agree about their value. The Allies get a ton of them in mid-43, but then the pipeline largely shuts down. I have to shepherd them carefully. They are in harm's way, of course, but thus far in this operation none have been sunk.

[Capt. Harlock]

Yes, I confess to following both AAR's, and never have I enjoyed dueling AAR's more. Win or lose, your insights are a pleasure to read. The one problem is I have to walk on eggshells making comments!

[Canoerebel]

9/12/43

Thin Man: JEB Stuart is in the saddle again. Steroid KB is moving east, fortunately not at flank speed. She made only eight hexes today. My string of merchantmen is still in harm's way, but only if John sprints tomorrow or the day after. Pretty soon they'll simply be too close to Pearl for John to chance anything.

But, goodness, to see Steroid KB moving east is eye-opening. Since the risk to the merchantmen is relatively small, I think John must have something else in mind. Mini KB showed up today, seven hexes NW of Eniwetok and 23 hexes west of Steroid (KB), so not close enough to combine forces for at least two days. Fuel doesn't seem to be a concern for John.

An IJ sub picked off an AK carrying troops SE of Johnston Island - I think part of 7th Div., so the loss there is meaningful.

Death Star took station just east of Jaluit. John got 3/3 detection on one TF and higher detection on the Victorious TF at Jaluit, so he knows Death Star's position. Death Star and Steroid KB are 19 hexes apart - not close enough for battle unless John uses flank speed and enters the orbit of the Allied LBA. Not likely. So perhaps he is making another JEB Stuart ride. I see through a glass darkly.

One Allied BB TF replenished at Jaluit, apparently using the ops points, so Victorious didn't replenish sorties. I'll give the another day. All of Saratoga's Hellcats will be serviceable tomorrow.

Allied AV at Kwaj is up to 123.

Only a few ships with supply to unload in the Marshalls. This part of the operation has been so slow - getting supply ashore at bases with small ports is no quick job. But it's been done. Tarawa (28k), Mili (51k), Jaluit (73k), Maloelap (69k), Ailinglaplap (13k), and Wotje (19k). Of the troops ashore at Kwaj all have 10x to 15x supply, except the 'chutes battalion which for some reason has 5k supply when it only needs 31 supply. The Marines are stealing the other units blind, hiding beer and tins of beef in their jungle dugouts.

So what happens next? Death Star will not sortie - it needs a few days to replenish fighters and address Victorious's sorties. So the ball is in John's court.

Circus: No sign of imminent enemy invasion up here. Was it deception or indecision? My guess is the former. A sub near Agattu Island hit CL Jintsu twice, sending her down. That's a nice little victory. The upgrades by 9th Australian Div. sucked down supply from 16k to 10k (ouch!), but new deliveries have bumped it back to 13.5k.

[Canoerebel]

JEB Stuart rides again?

[Canoerebel]

Steroid KB, Mini KB and Death Star within sufficient proximity to raise the tension level.