The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: witpqs
As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

That's what I said - they could be in harm's way if John's hunting them. But I do think the APAs are too fast and too close to Pearl to be in real danger.

I also agree about their value. The Allies get a ton of them in mid-43, but then the pipeline largely shuts down. I have to shepherd them carefully. They are in harm's way, of course, but thus far in this operation none have been sunk.

I thought you said 9 hexes per day... never mind!

[Canoerebel]

Well, my comments did only specify the nine hexes per day, giving the impression I was "assuming" he'd do that. I took into consideration the possibility of flank speed, though I didn't (and don't) think it's likely given the fuel expenditure and how it would leave KB rather rattled deep inside my perimeter with Death Star between him and home. He might do it, but I don't think he will.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: witpqs
As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

That's what I said - they could be in harm's way if John's hunting them. But I do think the APAs are too fast and too close to Pearl to be in real danger.

I also agree about their value. The Allies get a ton of them in mid-43, but then the pipeline largely shuts down. I have to shepherd them carefully. They are in harm's way, of course, but thus far in this operation none have been sunk.

I thought you said 9 hexes per day... never mind!

I take 8 hexes to mean Kaga is with Main KB rather than Mini KB. If he had to refuel DDs I would expect fewer than 8 hexes progress.
Of course John could just be setting a trap with Mini KB as the bait and Main KB ready to streak in from the flank, but CR has such great intel on his dispositions that it would not work.

[HansBolter]

He is moving way too tentatively for it to be a move against your transport stream.

He did have glen coverage over the stream to know it basic contents and locale right?

It looks to me like both carrier TFs are strategically positioned to cut off a move to the Aleutians by the death star.

In order to react to an invasion up there you would have to potentially engage both carrier TFs out from under your LBA.

The positioning prevents you from getting to the Aleutians in a position where you would be supported by your LBA there for any head to head encounter.

Could be he is simply moving cautiously in Indian country in his pursuit of prey, which will preclude much success, but it also 'could' be strategic positioning.

[SuluSea]

This is great reading with the coffee in the morning! Thanks!

[Canoerebel]

9/13/43

Thin Man: KB moves further east - nine hexes today - and is still a modest threat to the lagging merchant TFs en route to Pearl Harbor. But the threat is really minimal and will vanish next turn unless John uses flank speed. The first merchant TFs will arrive at Pearl tomorrow, many others the day after, and only the furthest out are another day back. I don't think these are John's targets, but KB keeps moving east so that I can't quite rest easy yet.

Mini KB is further back near Eniwetok. Who was it (Hans Bolter?) that posted that perhaps John has established a blocking position. Could be. But then I wonder why he would give himself away? It's a long way from the Marshalls to the Aleutians, so anything that's going to happen up there would happen before Death Star could make it (I think?).

Victorious TF replenished ammo and sorites at Jaluit today. The next lowest TF on sorties has 88%. I'll probably go ahead and replenish that TF too while I'm waiting for the two Hellcat squadrons the replaced aircraft to become fully operational again. The Allied carriers are high on sorties, fully refueled, and almost no SYS damage, and there's plenty of fuel in the Marshalls. So conceivably the carriers could stay here for weeks.

6th USA Div. arrived at San Fran today and will prep for Truk. Several turns back, Allied units in Australia switched prep from defensive locations to offensive locations.

Circus: A strong IJN cruiser TF (Maya, Chikuma and three CLs) intercepted an empty LST TF east of Adak, sinking three plus an AM. Then Arleigh Burke's TF (CL Honolulu and five Fletchers) found the enemy, crossed the T, and battered them a bit. Both IJN CAs took some hits, as did several of the CLs, including one that reported "heavy fires." Honololu and one Fletcher took modest damage. In four or five days, Arleigh will have at least six or seven Fletchers at his disposal.

Allied air sortied against the wounded Japanese aircraft, but the latter had heavy LRCAP. So I lost a handful of B25s from Umnak. The enemy ships ended up four hexes from Adak, where I had scores of strike aircraft and fighters set to range three. I keep hoping that "eventually" some good IJN ships will be slowed enough after combat in this area to get hammered. But the LRCAP in this instance was too strong and too close to Amchitka. I'm glad John's ships ended up four hexes away rather than three.

A USN sub put a TT into an AR east of Paramushiro.

SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain.

Map to come later.

[jwolf]

Hmmm,trying to reconcile this with the Japanese AAR latest title "crazy" and I can't see how it's really crazy, at least not yet. I'm not reading the Japanese AAR anymore (so I can comment and speculate more freely here) so I hope the full picture will become more clear soon.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain.

Map to come later.

If he is trying to reinvade, his enthusiasm is getting the better of his judgement here. He knows the Allies will have massive forts, 43 upgrades and lots of Fletchers and PTs, plus mines around here. If he is invading I would say that would be the turning point between a tensely fought mid-game duel to a building Allied rout. I hope for your sake he chooses something more strategically sound so you get a hard fought battle to the end! [:)]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/13/43


SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain.

And, to quote a really great series you don't watch, Winter Is Coming.

[ny59giants]

SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain

Were you able to get the fragment for the Aussie division there together with the parent so you could upgrade the '42 rifle squads to '43 version?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, the division is fully upgraded to '43 squads. It's a stout division.

What Obvert says makes sense - that Adak is a bear. John knows pretty much what there. He's no dummy, so probably all of this is deception. Exciting deception, but deception nonetheless.

jwolf, I saw teh "Crazy" title too. I figured it might refer to the outcome of that cruiser battle in NoPac (after all, John seriously outgunned me, but the Allies seemed to be the ones administering the whipping there). Who knows, though. Maybe he's considering some wild plan.

[Canoerebel]

I'm using an older version of Paint for this screen shot, so forgive the lower quality (I seldom use my work computer for screen shots). This shows Steroid KB heading east, but too far behind the merchant TFs to be a major concern. So what's John doing? What does he hope to accomplish? I'm chewing over possibilities.

[BBfanboy]

OMG - he's going to use all those troops from Sumatra and invade Hawaii! j/k [:D]

[Encircled]

Think Hans has got it spot on.

He's blocking you from interfering in the Aleutians.

Is it possible that he's got no idea at all what you have up there?

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

OMG - he's going to use all those troops from Sumatra and invade Hawaii! j/k [:D]

Well that would be pretty exciting. [;)] Seriously, I'll bet he really is trying to find somewhere that all of those Sumatran veterans could make a big splash. But by this time in the war I don't think that is possible.

[Canoerebel]

He's been reconning the closest major bases in the Aleutians for months: Ulak, Adak, Umnak and Cold Bay. He has to know pretty much what's there. Just the size of the stack (more than a dozen units, I think) should be intimidating. He was afraid to invaid Sabang with a huge army and absolute control of air and sea. But maybe he thinks with Death Star in CenPac that he can mercilessly pound Adak with BBs until it submits.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

OMG - he's going to use all those troops from Sumatra and invade Hawaii! j/k [:D]

Seriously though, how much fighter coverage do you have at Pearl?

How much anti-shipping air platforms?

He might not be going to invade Pearl, but he just might be considering a raid to catch you with your pants down.

How effectively could you counter a strike from 8 hexes out?

Hopefully you have about a thousand AA guns there.

[Canoerebel]

This has occurred to me, too, Hans. Pearl is not armed to the teeth, but I have taken some steps to beef things up. First, three turns ago I upgraded a bunch of old Army fighters used for training. Pearl now has mostly up-to-date P39, P40N, and Thunderbolts. This past turn, I also moved two P38H squadrons from the Marshalls to Johnston, where they can hop either way as needed. If all squadrons report to Pearl, the total defense will be rougly 175 fighters. So it's not strongly defended, but neither does it offer a freebie.

Flak at Pearl is fairly weak, though there is one dedicated AA unit (British, of all things) and quite a few units with organic AA.

But the main thing I'll have to do is run a bluff. If John sees Allied ships sprinting for Pearl, he will likely conclude that I consider Pearl a haven. I don't think he'll risk KB's air arm against a hardened target while Death Star straddles the route leading back home.

So I'm running a bit of a bluff here. At the moment, I think the bluff will work fine.

[KenchiSulla]

175 fighters @ 100% CAP when you need them will be enough to bleed him.. That is a risk he can't afford to take for a few bomb hits on ships in a big port....

[Canoerebel]

The "through the glass darkly" applies so well here and in every game of AE being played. So many possibilities.

Another is that John was hoping to bag damaged BB Washington on her way back to Pearl, though KB was late in arriving if that was his objective.

I frankly don't know what he's doing, though I will continue to try to figure it out. Importantly, I don't have to know at the moment. Death Star is currently engaged and isn't in a position to give chase, which I wouldn't consider anyhow (unless KB loses alot of aircraft and sorties in hitting Pearl).