Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[n01487477]

I know you can't think of everything, and certainly with that much CAP, you'd think you'll have plenty of protection.

Just one thought BB1.4 does seem to allow planes to slip through CAP & target ships, I've never tested with this much CAP though ...
From BB1.4 notes
The net result of these changes is to significantly lower air combat
losses to more realistic levels, without having a ripple affect on other
aspects of combat involving aircraft and land units or ships.

Which, in my shortened game resulted in CAP not being able to drive away the enemy, but you've played this longer and must have a better understanding of this than me ...

Don't want to confuse the issue, just making a simple observation.
[edit] I'll keep to economic observations from now on, there are better heads in this room than I.

[Nemo121]

John 3rd,
 
Tips on designing a good CV TF:
 
1. Your limit isn't 2 CVs per TF but, rather, 200 planes per TF IIRC.
 
2. You want to put a CVL or two with every 2 CVs to act as a cheap bomb magnet ( e.g. 2 x 70 plane CVs + 2 CVL ( 30 planes each ) = 200 planes ). Remember to think of decoys within the TFs too.
 
3. To boost your fighter CAP even farther you can fly carrier-capable but land-based Zeroes onto CVLs and CVEs etc. This means that EVEN if your CVLs or CVEs get sunk the squadrons will respawn ( which won't be the case if the CVE/L-based fighter unit goes down with its own CVL/E ).
 
4. You will get better results in terms of decoying enemy planes away from your CVs by dispersing your BBs and CAs amongst the 6 or so CV TFs you will be creating rather than putting those BBs etc into a single TF.
 
5. Ships dodge torpedoes better than bombs while undamaged. IF you are going to send a small strike toward the enemy in order to sting them you are FAR better off sending a few DBs since they are more likely to get hits than TBs. Sure some of those hits are going to be onto the deck armour of BBs BUT overall you will hurt more of his CVs with 50% of your DBs than with 50% of your TBs. Once his ships are crippled then, by all means, fly the TBs in and punch big holes beneath the waterline to sink them. But in order to stop flight ops you just need to put a few 250Kg bombs through their flight decks and cause system and fire damage equal to 50%. This isn't all that hard.
 
 
Without enough planes etc to fly CAP he will HAVE to replenish which means heading for Iwo or Tori Shima OR Pearl Harbour.
 
Position yourself just west of Chichi Jima and then you can easily cover both bases... and fly a strike mission against Iwo airfield. With that closed by KB ( and kept closed by long-range Betty strikes ) you can just whittle down his CV fleet again in another defensive air battle and then fly in all those DBs and TBs and begin offensive missions in earnest.

That's how I'd do it anyways. Note: I wouldn't split ANY BBs off for bombardment runs at all given the strong state of the enemy SC fleet AND the fact that you have so many mines at Iwo which are now hostile to both sides.
 

[ny59giants]

Engine production from last turn for viewing and comments.

[KTNJR]

WOW!! Everyday I come home and I have a ton of reading to do!!  I love this AAR[:D]
I already can see I don't want to fight against Nemo 121[:D]

[John 3rd]

I bumped up Aichi production some with the last turn.  I've slowly built (at 20 per month) enough engines to build 100 Judys/Month before I run out.  As our engine situation improves, I will bump the Aichi numbers some more...
 
Just got home from a long, tedious, and depressing day so I don't expect to get much done.  Dan is gone tomorrow so I plan to spend a good portion of it working on my battleplan.  Nemo--I will display my planned TF once I have figured out what I am firmly doing...
 
Andav and KTNJR I like hearing from you so thanks for chiming in!
 

[Blackhorse]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
2.  I will further boost this by moving 150 more fighters to Pagan and place them on LRCAP over my TF.  I consider this to be gamey but Dan did it a while back with P-38 so I will return the favor.

Another lurker here, chiming in to say great AAR.

Re: Land-based LRCAP over CV TFs. Aren't they reduced to 1/4 their nominal strength? Or is that an urban legend?

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Blackhorse

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
2.  I will further boost this by moving 150 more fighters to Pagan and place them on LRCAP over my TF.  I consider this to be gamey but Dan did it a while back with P-38 so I will return the favor.

Another lurker here, chiming in to say great AAR.

Re: Land-based LRCAP over CV TFs. Aren't they reduced to 1/4 their nominal strength? Or is that an urban legend?

yes, it´s greatly reduced. You can avoid this though, but that would be gamey then IMO.

[n01487477]

Engine Analysis:
Not to be too obvious, but for interest sake.

John expanded the Aichi Engines by 20
1. Initial expansion cost = 2000 Supply,200 Manpower and 200 HI points
2. To build it will cost an additional 20000 supply.

Onto the Tables and some thoughts ...

Mitsubishi Engines to this point are robust, however we went from dropping 11 to about 111 engines a month, this is due to 2 factors, 1. 70 factories were turned off and some Airframe factories using 30 engines came on-line. [edit]We will need to find a better equilibrium here ...

Nakajima Pool has risen by about 190, ultimately we are 90 short of what full production would use (1429-1339), but this is not a a potential problem me thinks...[edit] especially with 300+ engines being produced a month.

Not sure what is going on with TBO use, [edit]but I have some idea's that will make this whole table easier to follow ... It's good analysing your own work and realising, it wasn't as straight forward as first thought.

Kawasaki Engines, now here is a small problem in the making. Next month shiny new Ki-61 KAIc Tony's start rolling off the production lines at a rate of 328/mth . At present 66 Ki-61 KAIb Tony's/mth are being produced. Total next month = 388 and our total Kawasaki Engine capacity is 226+34=260.

So even if we halt the "b", this will still leave us with a shortfall of 68 engines/mth. Figuring into the equation our surplus, that will give us about 3 months at full production. If we don't halt the "b" then about 2 months...

Not sure of your surplus pool of "b" but do you have enough to cover losses ? Can we shut it down sometime, and use them(for losses) into units as we upgrade them to the "C" ... or are you upgrading more outmoded airframes first ?

Aichi looks good.

---Damian---



[edit] Lastly start thinking about prioritising the Merchant Shipyard / shortest Delay / Most needed etc
Also was wondering an update on the Oil situation and transportation of said liquid. When you get into the single digits, things start to go awry.

[ny59giants]

I just sent John a PM (did my occasional adjustments for AK/TK movement and small economic adjustments) about how both Kanazawa and Nagoya have fallen below 10k and thus engine repairs are not taking place. [:(] Thus, no more loading of supplies unto AKs for a few days to allow the AI to move it around (hopefully). We have 3 converted airframe factories at Sasebo that don't repair as that base doesn't hold supplies (1488). The solution is moving a HQ there or what??
 
I just adjusted Merchant shipbuilding to 500/day. I will look at it after a few days. Trying to manage the economy to get between 2000 to 3000 HI put into reserve per day. Finally have enough Oil centers repaired to get over 13,000 in Oil per day. [8D]
 
On the whole engine and airframe production, I've allowed John to do most of that, but will ask him how much of that he wants me to control vs him.
 
Thanks for your input...now back to me getting my first turn of Empire's Ablaze to John. [:D]

[n01487477]

Thus, no more loading of supplies onto AKs for a few days to allow the AI to move it around (hopefully). We have 3 converted airframe factories at Sasebo that don't repair as that base doesn't hold supplies (1488). The solution is moving a HQ there or what??

In my game Vs you, I tried that, In fact from memory I tried two HQ's there for a while, had Engineers there too, it took months to achieve anything ... I never came up with a viable solution. Later I even tested it, and couldn't make it work well unless I had an abundance of Supplies everywhere. I never posted a bug report, but it certainly is annoying. Sasebo is one of those ports where IJN players often unload and hence, it must have a "super officious" logistics Officer.

I'll never change my production choices at Sasebo again.

I just wonder, how's that Oil/Oil Transportation? Answer when you get a chance ... back to programming for me & then a few beers at my local.

[edit]Also, often I find it better to transport surplus supply from Korea/Manchuko to Japan.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

Thus, no more loading of supplies onto AKs for a few days to allow the AI to move it around (hopefully). We have 3 converted airframe factories at Sasebo that don't repair as that base doesn't hold supplies (1488). The solution is moving a HQ there or what??

In my game Vs you, I tried that, In fact from memory I tried two HQ's there for a while, had Engineers there too, it took months to achieve anything ... I never came up with a viable solution. Later I even tested it, and couldn't make it work well unless I had an abundance of Supplies everywhere. I never posted a bug report, but it certainly is annoying. Sasebo is one of those ports where IJN players often unload and hence, it must have a "super officious" logistics Officer.

I'll never change my production choices at Sasebo again.

I just wonder, how's that Oil/Oil Transportation? Answer when you get a chance ... back to programming for me & then a few beers at my local.

[edit]Also, often I find it better to transport surplus supply from Korea/Manchuko to Japan.

I have had the same problem with Sasebo. I've tried shipping supply, flying supply, HQs.... No luck. Supply gets moved out as quickly as you bring it in. Just one of those quirky things....

[ny59giants]

The Oil transport is going well. What I need to do next (or pass on to John) is getting the TF usage to be more economical. I guess I've played the Allies for too long and am used to having mega-fuel everywhere. [:D] I'm going to try to get some of them (TKs) into shipyards for sys repair. I have more TKs than Oil to be transported. Ideally, I want to use the 11k TKs for Oil and the 6k for fuel.
 
To computer "geeks" [;)] - I just got my new 22" monitor. Sweet!! How do I set it up so the display of the wider post is automatic vs me using the slide at the bottom of the screen to see the whole post??  Thanks in Advance. [&o] 

[John 3rd]

Barring a miracle Michael there is NEVER enough Fuel to go around as the Japanese.  There have been several times when I have found an Allied TK convoy and WISHED I could capture it instead of sink it!  I think the game does model that pretty accurately.
 
Dan is out for the day so there won't be any turns played and I want to work on my battleplan.
 
I need to post for the last turn because it APPEARS dan is withdrawing to the east.  His CVs moved east 2-3 hexes along with about 10 other TF.  I don't know if he is moving away to Midway or not.  The next turn will probably show that.
 
If he is doing that then that changes everything.  There are still a BUNCH of AK/AP/TK/MSW at Iwo Jima.  He is MSW the heck out of the hex.  He should have all my mines out pretty soon...
 
Does this present an opportunity with his CV potentially leaving?   Hmmm....
 
I will post the organization of my CV TF later today as I plan for battle.
 
As to the economic Tony/Kawasaki Engine shortfall, I plan to shift another 50-75 research points over to Frank to start moving that valuable aircraft foreward.  I was able to bring the new Tony up THREE months, perhaps the same can be done for the early model of Mr. Frank.
 
 
Thanks for--yet another--lurker making his presense known!  Good to have you.
 

[John 3rd]

Dan begins some sort of movement with a major portion of his Fleet...

[Nemo121]

In EA I olve this by simply basing a squadron of Ki-264s there. Their extremely large load means they require huge amounts of supply to remain in service each month and thus they draw the supply to Sasebo and keep it there.
 
You can acheive the same result with a few Sentai of Tabbys at Sasebo. Once they hold supplies above 9,000 ( ideally about 20,000 ) you'll be just fine.
 
 
As to his ships moving East. When the enemy does exactly what you want then you can be sure you are misreading the situation [:D]. He won't be withdrawing east without all those APs, AKs etc.

[John 3rd]

On the next turn I will move a hoste of Transport planes there and see what happens.  I assigned and moved 5th Air Fleet to Sasebo.
 
Air Recon detected a force of 38 Fighters, 18 Bombers, and 46 Aux planes at Iwo:  Total 102.  AF is only 4 so there can only be 200 planes max.  We'll watch the see if this number rises (uncrating planes).
 
I am loading 4th Infantry Division at Townsville right now.  They will be posted somewhere between Okinawa--Formosa--and the Philippines...
 

[John 3rd]

By September 15th (3 Turns) I will have the following available at Combined Fleet HQ:
 
9 CV
5 CVL
6 CVE
4 BB/BC
13 CA (9 14,000+)
12 CL (1 Modern)
58 DD (4 AA DD)
 
In Tokyo Bay will be to only other significant portion of the Fleet:
 
2 BB
2 CA (1 14,000+)
2 CL (1 Modern)
14 DD (3 AA DD)
 
Once my sons take their nap I will shuffle and organize the shipping as well as provide a complete layout of the aircraft available on the ships and in the Marianas--Tokyo area.
 

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
September 9-11, 1943
 
The Bonins
Sub Action
Sept 9th  Ro-33 hits a TK with 2 TT and sinks an LCI at Iwo.  I-123 is hit by ASW while mining.
  S-44 misses a rather big target named Yamato at Pagan!
  I-171 hits an AO with 1 TT
 
Sept 10th  I-171 sinks and LCI at Iwo.  I-153 is sunk after being hit by LBA THREE times at the same location.
  SS Albacore hits a PC at Palau
 
Sept 11th  I-174 hits a DD with 1 TT but is then sunk by ASW and LBA at Iwo.  Ro-63 and I-171 sunk by the same! 
  Ro-62 hits an LST with a TT and Guns at Tori Shima.
 
Damn...order my boats out of the area to refuel and replenish at Tokyo.
 
3rd Naval Battle of Tori Shima (Sept 11th)
I send in 6 old DD to keep Dan's attention.  In a series of 6 seperate engagements, I lose DD Sawakaze and have another hit by a TT in exchange for 6 PT, 1 AK, and 1 LST.
 
Tokyo Strike
With Dan pulling a portion of the Fleet out, some of my planes launch a strike to the SE of Tori Shima.  A group of 11 Z and 20 B hit 3 LSTs.
 
Iwo Jima
Dan's forces still cannot get a decent attack made against my remaing troops here.  They still hold most of Surabachi.  He cannot get more then a 3-1 attack.  My boys stay there and serve as harrassment to the Americans.
 
Indochina
Since the end of my evacuation of Rangoon was pretty chaotic, I have ordered various surviving units to meet at various locations so they can recombine and refit their strength.  Dan hasn't moved from Rangoon and I will use as much time as I can get for his move into Moulmein.
 
On the 11th I have a Combat Command arrive at Siem Reap.  They will retake the AF from the Indian Paratroopers tomorrow.
 
China
I have so darned many planes flying strikes against Chinese troops that I cannot even tell you.  There are probably 12-14 fighter units and an equal number of bomber units in the attack.  The fighters are desperately trying to train and get their experience up to a minimum of 70 before moving to either Hanoi or Mukden to upgrade their aircraft and deploy into a combat zone.
 

[John 3rd]

I am working on my TF dispositions and am amazed at the firepower I possess.
 
Something grabbed my eye and I will ask the question here:
 
1.  I need to have my air group change out.  They are all still at the original 1/3--1/3--1/3 mix from the start of the war.  Do I need to change their status to 'accept replacements?'
 
2.  As per Nemo's and other thoughts, I will load up on Fighters.  All 6 CVE will carry fighters for CAP.  I think (as per House Rules) that I must limit my CV CAP to 60%.  Since I don't remember which set of house rules we are using, I wrote Dan to send me his set.  IF there is no such limit then I will modify even further...
 
3.  Looks 6 CV TF and 2 STF for the tentative Kaigun formation...
 
Will post more when I have completed my Table of Organization.
 
Need to know about the Air Group change question.
 

[John 3rd]

I went through and made an initial TF Organization for the upcoming battle and tallied (this is with conventional CV/CVL loadout and ALL CVE only carrying Fighters) a total of 460 Fighters, 216 DB, and 248 TB.  Going with this number I would have 414 CAP @ 90%, 368 CAP @ 80%, and 324 CAP @ 70%.  This is using 5 Daitai of Fighters on my CVEs.

I have 4 more Daitai of Fighters available where I could offload more Strike Aircraft while bumping my Fighter Total to 522.  Math yields 470 CAP @ 90%, 418 CAP @ 80%, etc...

IF I go through with this massive Fighter load, then I figure I should simply offload all my DB/TB so they don't get massacred during the battle.  Once Day 1 is done then I can fly them in and swing HARD! 

Edit--Should note that I can place 144 Tony and 36 Tojo on Pagan and assign them to LRCAP as well. That would be 180 Army Fighters: 50% would add 90 to CAP, 25% would add 45 to CAP. Even 'just' 45 Tony would make QUITE the impact!