And further, is there a shock attack at all to cross a hex side you control? I would assumed not but it's a question worth knowing the answer to...
there is - I was in exactly the same situation, concerning Changsha - and I moved some reinforcements there which shock attacked and got slaughtered... - AV ratio was probably 2000 Chinese vs 4500 Japanese
but I have no idea of the rules either...
This is an interesting question and may generate some confusion. Let me tell you how I think it will work.
The Allies will have 2,000 AV in Changhsa. Say the Japanese move 7,000 AV into the hex. Naturally, the Alies would want to reinforce and could do so quickly by moving units there from across the river at Siangtan. However, if the Allies aren't careful, they could trigger a shock attack by the Chinese troops crossing the river...and a shock attack by Chinese troops against good Japanese troops in urban terrain would be very, very ugly.
So, the Chinese need to be able to move units from Siangtan into Changsha without triggering a shock attack. In order to do so, the units cannot be in "Move" mode; they must be in "Combat" mode. Moreover, the units in Combat mode cannot have an AV great than 1/3rd of the AV of the Chinese units (NOT the Japanese units) in Changsha.
So, with 2,000 Chinese AV at Changhsa, the Allies could move about 650 AV in Combat mode across the river into Changsha without triggering a shock attack. That would give the Chinese 2,650 AV in the hex. The next day, the Chinese could cross with as much as roughly 880 AV (1/3rd of 2,650) without triggering a shock attack.
The key will be for the Chinese to make sure that Changsha doesn't fall to the Japanese before reinforcements arrive. The Japanese might be able to get roughly 7,000 AV into the hex and attack before Chinese reinforcements arrive (I think it would take at least two days, maybe three for the first units to make it). That means 2,000 AV 100% prepped behind six forts in urban terrain has to hold off 7,000 AV. I think that situation definately favors the Chinese.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I believe the friendly force currently in the hex must have at least 1/3 of the enemy force's AV to avoid having new units arriving over a friendly river hexside trigger a shock attack. I don't think it matters how much AV you are moving in, just how much AV you already have there.
with regard to CVE Taiyo, I'd say either one of your torpedo hits was FoW or it's sunk. There is almost no chance that garbage scowl could survive 3 torpedo hits.
ORIGINAL: Jzanes
I believe the friendly force currently in the hex must have at least 1/3 of the enemy force's AV to avoid having new units arriving over a friendly river hexside trigger a shock attack. I don't think it matters how much AV you are moving in, just how much AV you already have there.
If that's true then I have to be very careful not to allow my Changsha garrison to fall under 1/3rd the value of the Japanese AV. I'm guessing that will be roughly 7,000, so I probably need to keep 2,500 there. This will weaken my two other garrisons to about 3,750 AV each.
So, was I right? Was Jzanes right? Or is there another "right"? To summarize:
1. Jzanes says that cross-river entry into friendly hex will trigger a shock attack if the Allied garrison in the hex isn't at least one-third the size of the besieging Japanese force.
2. I had understood it differently. I thought the size of the Allied force crossing the river had to be less than one-third the size of the Allied garrison.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
50. Gameplay Change: Change to river assault – reversion to original rule - when
crossing a river into a hex all units entering should shock attack in the turn they
cross, unless 1/3 of the unmodified AV of the defenders has already crossed from that hex side
in a previous turn.
I don't know if this helps. It's hard to interpret whether that includes units already in the hex that may or may not have entered from that hexside. I checked up on river crossings after I had a Tank Rgt. wiped out crossing a different hexside than the one I originally entered the hex by. This was in one of the official patch readme's. Sorry I can't remember which one. My take is you should be ok as long as you are entering from Chinese controlled hexsides, but that's just a guess.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
LOL. You should see me now. It reminds me of one of those brain-frying tests in college when I reached the point where I knew I knew what to do, but my brain wouldn't work any more. I'd read and re-read, cajole and encourage myself, yet never figure out what the question was asking.
It SOUNDS like to me that if I have 2,000 AV at Changsha, I could send as much as 6,000 additional AV into the hex from Siangtan without causing a shock attack. For some reason, my memory tells me that those units have to cross in Combat mode, but I can't cite chapter and verse.
Or...wait...does the game actually manage to keep count of how much of the AV in a hex has crossed through a particular hexside, so that the rule as quoted above is literal???!!!! If that's the case, then I would have to keep track of how much AV had entered Changsha through the Siangtan hexside in order to figure out how much I could send acoss later to not trigger a shock attack. Surely that can't be?
Me thinks there is ambiguity in the rules! Ack! Augh!
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I've never seen any sign that the game has a "memory" of what has happened in previous turns. I really doubt it remembers what you've previously moved into a hex. I think it just compares the AVs at the moment of the crossing to decide whether or not there is a shock attack.
While we're on the topic, there are two exploits to the river crossing system;
1. When a unit loses in combat and retreats across a river, any pursuing unit that immediately crosses the river after them, does not shock attack and does change the hexside to friendly allowing for easy exploitation by follow up units.
2. Units with 0 AV (artillery, HQ, etc.) can cross an enemy held river hexside and not be forced to shock attack (since they can't attack). However, they will convert the hexside. Usually, this is no big deal as the defender will just attack the 0 AV unit, force it to retreat, and reestablish hexside control.
Where this exploit causes trouble is when you've moved units into a hex from another direction but really want to move units into the hex across a different hexside which is an enemy held river hexside. In this case, your AV in the hex "protects" the 0 AV unit used to cross/convert the river hexside, allowing your across the river force to arrive without having to shock attack.
I remember the discussion when the 1/3 rule went into effect. In case this clarification helps, the side crossing the river is the "attacker" and the other side is the "defender". So if IJ has 5,000 AV there, and you already have 2,000 AV there (which is more than 1/3 of 5,000), then your additional forces will cross with no shock attack. The logic is that 1/3 is enough to have established a beachhead.
Now, I also remember that there was a change made in one of the patches, so I do not know if what SqzMyLemon found is the latest change.
What I was wondering (my earlier post) is if there is an exception when the hex is your own base.
Canoerebel...feeling lucky? Just cross and then we can figure out what went right/wrong after the fact [:D]. It is a confusing rule as worded. It would be clearer if stated "unless the attackers AV is greather than 1/3 of the unmodified AV of the defenders and has already crossed from a friendly controlled hex side in a previous turn."
Witpqs states the crux of the matter. Does this even apply at all when the hex and relevent hex sides are already controlled by you and you are the defender.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
As for the "what if the hex is already under your control," that I'm not sure about. I will err on the side of assuming that doesn't exempt me from the shock-attack calculation.
After digesting this, I think what Steve will try to do is "flood" Changsha quickly to see if he can get better than 3x the AV into the hex, thus forcing Allied troops to shock attack to enter the hex. I should be able to counter that fairly easily by maintining about 2,500 AV in the hex and adjusting that up a little if it looks like he can approach or exceed 7,500 AV.
If he does try that and finds that he's been stymied, he can then shift his troops back to the hex to the south and try a sudden mass assault across the river at Siangtan or Henyang, hoping to get there en masse before my reinforcements arrive.
It's going to be an interesting chess match, but I think the Chinese can handle the variables effectively to ensure that Japan ends up having to attack under unfavorable circumstances no matter what hex is finally selected for the assault.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I think you are in good shape regardless what the Japanese try. You can always shift in time to block a river assault or reinforce Changsha at will as long as he doesn't try and turn your flank somewhere else. Going head to head against your strength will take time and cost heavy casualties. I think the key to taking China is the North anyway. The terrain, river crossings and interior lines of communication for the Chinese make the South extremely difficult to take. Before tackling Changsha I'd be after cutting the railway at Liuchow or Kweilin first and work my way towards Changsha or Tuyun to spread out the Chinese and avoid river assaults. If the Chinese are allowed to mass in good defensive terrain at the point of the Japanese thrust it can be almost impossible to budge them. In my experience it's time for Japanese forces to become waterlike and move around these large concentrations of Chinese forces to threaten supply routes and force you to move, a static Chinese defence is hard to crack. There's a time to take on large Chinese stacks head-on for sure, but I don't believe this is the time.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
If the Japanese take a licking on the Changsha front, the Chinese in northern China will go on the offensive.
Why the reactiveness?
Why attack him ONLY if his attack goes badly? Why not hit him now and draw forces away from the coming attack in Changsha making it more likely you can go on a general offensive. If you can create a situation of Order, Counter-Order, Disorder you might be able to get his reserves shuffling back anf forth without ever being committed - which is the operational and strategic acme of the art in such a situation.
P.s. Canoerebel, true, ALTHOUGH, there's nothing wrong with extolling the NORRIS everywhere.
E.g. When Chuck Norris goes to Rome, Rome does as Chuck Norris does.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Dreaming of Disaster: I woke up in the wee hours of Thursday morning with the sudden realization: "What if the enemy were to attack at Singapore, prevail, and destroy all my fighters on the ground? It would cripple or eliminate my ability to defend myself in Sumatra! Disaster!" After mulling it over awhile, I decided that such an attack wouldn't prevail, would be costly to the Japanese, and that Steve wasn't likely to try it. But, imagine, worrying over AE in the middle of the night. Do any of you guys do that?
Singapore: So, I got up and checked out the combat report in my inbox...and found that Japan shock attacked at Singapore! Fortunately, if failed, though I think it was a great idea. Kudos to Steve for trying, as he probably had a shot and it would have crippled the Allies. The attack came off at 1:2, didn't touch the three forts, and cost Japan 233 infantry squads and 115 engineer squads destroyed. The Allies lost 73 and 93, respectively. The attack wasn't as one-sided as it seems. Japan may get even odds as soon as reinforcements arrive. I'm guessing Singapore will fall in three to four weeks.
Eastern DEI: No Japanese offensive moves yet.
Western DEI: Still tons of shipping at Oosthaven and Benkolen. I also have alot of ships at Cocos Island. In a few days, I'll have to pull my valuable ships back from the front lines. I'm definately expecting either a raid by the KB or a massive KB-escorted invasion of Java (or possibly Sumatra, though Steve strikes me as a step-by-step attacker).
China: A few tweaks made to Allied force disposition as I wait to see which, if any, of the three bases centered on Siangtan Steve elects to attack.
Luzon: Clark Field finally falls (I forgot to note in yesterday's post that it had held against one more deliberate attack). The shattered remnants of the Allied army retreats to Bataan, which has three forts and no supply. I suspect the garrison will fall on the first attack in less than a week, though Steve may elect to deliberate attack first and there is a small chance it will bring down forts from three to zero on the first attack, with the second taking the base.
Where Does the Enemy Go From Clark? Steve has five divisions that were committed at Clark and weaked (I think considerably) by the long campaign and repeated attacks there. They will need a few days or weeks to recover. I know at least one of these divisions was prepping for Auckland. I am hoping that Steve will elect to continue to emphasize SoPac, but I'm putting my money on the DEI. If he chooses SoPac or some other far-flung destination at this late date, he'll never be able to finish off Sumatra. He's got to come now while he still has a good chance of prevailing. I think he'll attend to Singapore, a few bases on Borneo (Singkawang, Balikpan, and Banjermasin) and perhaps Java first.
Allied Counter Offensive: During a long, long hike in the mountains yesterday (once again demonstrating my addiction to this game), I mulled over various Allied offensive operations. My main objective is to create a crisis situation for Steve - one that presents him with two hot spots that he can't attend to simultaneously or sequentually (at least with ease). One that puts pressure on him to allocate everything to both immediately - which of course he can't. I ultimately concluded that NoPac offers the best results based upon the following reasoning:
NoPac: The Kuriles are critical to Japan due to proximity to the Home Islands. Japan can't afford to allow the Allies to maintain big airfields here. Therefore, Japan has to react decisively and quickly. Wait too long and the Allies can create strong bases that are not completely isolated due to their proximity to the Aleutians. The KB is likely to be employed in the DEI now, so the Allies can employ combat ships to take and hold bases until Japan employs the KB. But if Japan employs the KB up there, the Allies would take advantage in Sumatra. So a Kuriles invasion forces Steve to allocate the KB one place or the other, allowing the Allies to consolidate and strengthen the "neglected" theater for long-term use. I also took into consideration that the Kuriles are lightly defended according to SigInt, the Allies have an American divisions 100% prepped for Paramushiro, and the availability of plenty of troop transports.
Malaya/Burma: An invasion in this theater now would not really create an immediate crisis for Steve. The crisis would be sequential rather than simultaneous. Steve could attend to Sumatra and then move all his troops to meet the second emergency. Also, the Allies would be reinforcing their own key weakness: India. I've been stripping troops for Sumatra; another invasion using the India torops would leave it essentially undefended. There is a chance that Steve could elect to bypass Sumatra, or to bypass the new invasion target after the fall of Sumatra, and hit India. While unlikely, such a move isn't beyond question.
Pacific Islands: An invasion of Wake, the Marshalls, the Solomons, etc. could well succeed due to the KB's expected absence. But, as with Malaya/Burma, the crisis would be sequential rather than simultaneous. None of these islands is critical to Japan right now. Steve could deal with the DEI and then move back to counter any threats to his island MLR.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Nemo, to answer your question about China, I could go on the offensive now, but I'm pretty sure that Steve is going to try a big attack somewhere that will seriously weaken his biggest army. Right now the Chinese have 10,000 AV to about 7,000 AV for Japan. But a disastrous attack for Japan would seriously improve the strength ratio in favor of the Allies. An Allied offensive will be that much stronger if it kicks off against a seriously weakened Japanese army.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
>. But a disastrous attack for Japan would seriously improve the strength ratio in favor of the Allies. An Allied offensive will be that much stronger if it kicks off against a seriously weakened Japanese army.
That was the Soviet idea of grand offensive..Let the Germans ground themselves up on an offensive, as they are worn down is the time to attack..They did at Moscow, Stalingrad and after Kursk....
To quote from Evans/Peattie`s {Kaigun}
"Mistakes in operations and tactics can be corrected, but
political and strategic mistakes live forever". The authors were refering to Japan but the same could be said of the US misadventure in Iraq
Ahh, Dan, you do love your NOPAC. Seems a sound idea as long as you can live with the extra troops. Japan has trouble with this front as there just aren't enough Netty groups and Air HQs to go around.
As for way too much AE, here is my list:
Lost sleep over worrying about the next replay - check
Dreamed about doing part of a turn so realistically I was surprised to find the orders not issued IRL - check
First person dream of piloting a Zero and a P-40 - check
Glad Mrs. Cribtop is a professional counselor to help out with "issues" - check. [:D]
Don't tell me you are married to Nemo or NYGiants?
(As far as I know, they are the only professional counselors qualified to deal with AE addiction. There may be other pyschiatrist/psychologist players, so forgive me if I omitted anybody).
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
LOL! I'm sure he'd prefer the tender ministrations of Mrs Cribtop though [:D]
Canoe,
Ah, ok, gotcha, "Never interrupt your opponent as he's busy making a mistake." Gotcha, just wanted to be sure it was part of a plan and not just over-defensiveness.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
