Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Accepting that, I was taking Hans to mean all he sees is dozens and dozens of fighters in CAP over one place. If he means hundreds but dozens at a time in any given combat event, then I withdraw my earlier statement. Also, strange that you can't employ large numbers of NF's. Does that mean you can have 100 on CAP but only 15 would appear in the combat? Seems somewhat strange, but useful to know for my Japan game.

You can have hundreds in the air but only a few can be vectored onto the enemy raid. Don't want your NFs crashing into each other. My understanding is that they would be vectored in series so one engages, and when it breaks off the next one engages. Even if the NF has it's own radar it can't get an overall picture of what is happening so ground radars must vector the fighters to avoid conflicts. The limited number of radars and controllers would limit the NF employment. I think that is the problem abstracted by the NF algorithms.

[HansBolter]

Yes I meant hundreds of fighters stationed at the bases with dozens of night fighters of varying types encountered in strategic bombing missions.

The array of different airframe types the IronMan AI throws at me is staggering.

The large bases in the HI have anywhere from 300-500 fighters stationed at them.

I didn't dare fly day missions from ranges outside fighter escort range so my strategic bombing campaign was a night campaign.

Anywhere from 60% to 80% of the bombers 'strayed due to night' on any given mission. I would typically get one coordinated mission ranging from 60-90 bombers and the remainder trickle in by 2s, 3s and 5s.

All told a years worth of this kind of effort netted reasonable results.

This effort started in late '44 with a few hundred B29s after securing the Mariana's and Hangchow.

By October '45 I have over 1,200 B29s on Tinian, about 350 more on Guam and about 500 in Hanchow.

I'm currently investing Nagasaki while reducing forts and am adjacent to Hiroshima to I have recently backed off the campaigns against those targets and am resting the bomber force before unleashing them on Osaka.

I also bomb from either 20k or 25k to minimize flak losses and force fighters to come up to meet me. In spite of the high altitude the campaign netted good results.



p.s. Sorry, it wasn't my intent to derail the AAR with a strat bombing discussion.

[Canoerebel]

2/15/43 to 2/20/43

Tarawa: Dave springs KB and achieves surprise, despite Allied patrols and subs covering the likely (and, as it develops, utilized) vectors of approach.

On the 19th, KB arrives just as an Allied amphib TF moves from Tarawa to Makin. LRCAP from Tarawa wards off Bettys but can't handle a series of large carrier strikes. I lose about five xAP (with more the next day). The balance retire to Tarawa, heavily damaged, after dropping off only a scattering of troops.

The enemy carrier force is to the NW, eight hexes from Makin. Yorktown and her CVE compatriots are down near Canton. I move some carrier fighter squadrons to Tarawa to supplement and order TFs to disperse in all directions. There's all kinds of stuff, mainly small.

On the 20th, it appears that the KB force used flank speed and moved due E, ending up well to the NE of Tarawa. From there carrier air sank AM Vireo, which was retiring to Palmyra from it's scouting mission. There's another enemy carrier TF in the same position as yesterday but with half the aircraft. Some of its scout planes do modest damage to CL Montpelier, at Tarawa.

Now the eastern KB force is too close to Yorktown and friends for comfort - 13 hexes. And if Dave uses flank speed, as is his practice, he can position his carriers amidst my carriers or other TFs that are scattering SW, S, SE or ESE. Yorktown is ordered to follow a combat TF at flank speed. The CVEs are ordered to Canton at regular speed, to take position under decent LBA.

I knew he was coming. I had good screens and search arcs in place. But Dave has still managed to get in amongst my shipping. Drat him.

[Canoerebel]

2/23/45

Tarawa: KB east moves southwesterly at flank speed and finds four empty AK in range, sinking three. He also has eyes on a small APD TF. He apparently had no information about the whereabouts of my carriers. York moved E from Canton and is well out of range now. The CVEs are at Canton, just 13 hexes from KB and will move out tonight. There's some risk but I think I prefer to go mobile rather than hole up.

Enemy DD TF raided Tarawa, taking on five USN DD. His TF sank two of my DDs. His carrier air targeted the remaining DDs and whiffed. Allied CAP performed pretty well.

Tarawa has 500 AV, four forts, and 50k supply. I can't imagine Dave working an amphibious op successfully, at least in the short run. Any campaign would involved sustained bombardments and bombing for awhile. And that may be his plan.

With most of his carriers accounted for (I think), Allied ops elsewhere will commence or accelerate.

P-39G squadron from Akyab downed 10 Jacks over Rangoon with no losses. I think the Jap pilots must be less than the best, because a Tojo squadron at Magwe had given the Lightnings fits, from time to time.

[BBfanboy]

One post says Feb 43 and the next says Feb 45. Time warp? Pacific war savings time?

[Canoerebel]

Erik-tile dysfunction.

It's '45 in my game with Erik (Obvert).

It's '43 in this, my game with Dave.

I apologize for the cross pollination.

[Canoerebel]

2/24/43 to 2/28/43


CenPac: Dave's bigger carrier TF showed up near Wake, a day after loitering near Roi. His smaller carrier TF pulled away about four days ago and hasn't been seen. I'm not positive, but I think the Wake-area TF is the bigger one, though he might've changed carrier TF configurations or otherwise shuffled the deck in ways I'm not aware of. I don't think he knows the whereabouts of my CenPac carriers but it playing hunches. His frequent use of flank speed runs is effective, giving him a 1,000 mile striking radius in a single day (movement plus aircraft range) and nearly 2k in two days. It's impossible to guard all shipping against such tactics (which are a fun and nerve-jangling part of the game but so contrary to the real war). He did a good job sinking some ships (AM, two DDs, a few xAPs, four AKs) but I did a good job of pulling off a major invasion, keeping patrols up, and not losing anything more significant in the process.

Tarawa and Vicinity: Both sides have weak forces at Makin after a series of contested landings, etc., and the Allies finally managed to take the base. I hold it weakly but am satisfied, as any Jap invasion is fairly complicated at this point. Tarawa forts to 4.50. SigInt continually shows an engineer unit aboard a maru bound here, but I'm skeptical. The base is strongly held and will have to be reduced before he can counterinvade. I'll fight here, though he can easily bring more to the fight; but there are other things in the works elsewhere, as long as his main carrier force is committed here.

NoPac: With so many IJ carriers in CenPac, the odds of activity up here are low. I'm still stuffing each base with supply, to the extent possible. Lots of bases have RCT but there's only one division in theater and it's at Anchorage.

China: No major action along the MLR, except for frequent bombing in the Changsha to Kukong area. I don't know if Dave is moving a big force to hit a point...or not. I dread the thought of all the arty he employed at Singers showing up here. And it could well happen.

Bay of Bengal: Recon shows pretty weak garrisons in some interesting places. A P-38F squadron keeps ripping CAP over Rangoon. Dave has 175 fighters at Magwe, defending the last 35 oil points.

Oz: He's not active here.

SwPac: He's not active here either. I continue to work on infrastructre and supply at New Caledonia, Efate and Luganville.

Picket Ships: I've apparently abandoned my old practice of using xAKs and other low-value ships as pickets. I haven't done so in my game with Obvert nor in this one. The tactic is a valid one IMO, given the constraints of the game, but as time has gone on, I've found better ways (I think) to provide security, including use of YMS TFs and subs. Thus far I haven't considered employing the old strategy, even as Dave hops his carriers around like a cricket on a griddle. He reminds me of John III in that regard.

[jwolf]

Dave hops his carriers around like a cricket on a griddle.

That's an ... interesting metaphor. I wonder if you're just now getting a real taste of what Dave's defense will be like, at least as long as he has a good carrier force.

[Canoerebel]

jwolf, my goodness! That's a simile! [:'(]

My working interpretation is that he's giving vigorous attention to defense and using his carriers as a strong, mobile reaction force. (More about that in a following post.) I don't think he has major offensive plans anywhere, at this point, but that's not set in stone (as you'll see in that post).

[jwolf]

Rats, you busted me -- simile indeed! Mea culpa! [:o]

As for Dave's "strong mobile reaction force" he is certainly emphasizing the "mobile" part.

[Canoerebel]

3/1/43

CenPac: The surprise I felt at the enemy carrier force's rapid, aggressive movement yesterday is doubled today. It continues moving north, apparently at flank speed (unless there's an impossible to follow shell game going on with multiple carrier TFs, which I don't think is the case). At this point, I'm wondering if he isn't hoping to spring a sudden offensive in NoPac, hoping that I was lured to sleep over the long winter and with his carriers committed elsewhere. His subs have been monitoring merchant traffic moving hither and yon, and perhaps its whetted his appetite. A spring offensive after the long quietness might be a clever idea and the plan may be well-thought-out, but I don't think he'll catch too much. I only have modest shipping here. Adak has 500 AV with 6.96 forts and about 75k supply. Some other key bases have about 150 to 180 AV. Several smaller ones have roughly 120 AV. Anchorage and its two satellite bases are the cornerstones of the defenses. Dave can overwhelm here but it'll take time and a lot of effort, if my planning was on target.

I've picked up some great info on enemy garrisons in one sector. I have troops prepped for that sector...but my amphib ships and carriers had already loaded and departed for a different sector. Curse the timing!

[Canoerebel]

3/1/43

NoPac: Since early in the game, I've been working to establish a chain of decent fortified positions. The result is decent but by no means impregnable. Attu, Adak, Kodiak and Anchorage are strongest redoubts. Supply could be a lot better at most of these places, but the first order of business is to build forts, then to build the port/airfields to raise supply limits enough to hold more than 8k or 17k. All of that takes time, especially during wintertime. I attended to this pretty diligently but now wish I had done more and better.

It's possible but unlikely he has a full offensive aimed this way. There's been no SigInt of enemy troop preparation. Dave has showed little interest in this theater and has little info on what I've done and where. To accomplish anything he'd need to devote his carriers and combat vessels for weeks or longer, which would suit me. So this is more likely just a raid.

[BBfanboy]

Why do I have the feeling that any IJ invasion of the Aleutians in March 1943 will play into your hands and plans? [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Perhaps I'll get lucky and people will think I know what I'm doing. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

3/2/43

KB: 50 hexes in three days.

From my chair, the only thing that makes sense is that he's craft a surprise massive invasion in the Aleutians. He must hope the sudden, drastic, vast change in direction would work a tremendous advantage. There's merit in that kind of thinking, only in this case I never deviated from the planning and prep in NoPac. All that planning and prep hasn't left me with an impregnable position, as you can see from the previous graphic, but it does mean that decent defenses are in place.

In a turn or two, I'd expect my patrols to pick up an invasion armada inbound, while SigInt whispers its own tales.

A mere raid makes no sense because he hasn't seen any ships worth coming for.

As for KBs fuel expenditures, that shouldn't be an issue. Both sides have used carriers rarely during the war. But perhaps Sys damage will impact his options in the short and medium term. 'Cause this particular carrier force isn't going to be in the IO or Bay of Bengal anytime soon.

[Canoerebel]

3/3/43

NoPac: KB moves 13 more hexes, for a total of 63 in four days. The TF is near Attu. My updated assessment is that, perhaps, Dave wants Attu and saw something that led him to believe I was about to garrison or otherwise bolster the island's defenses.

SigInt hasn't given any insights, and Nav Search doesn't show any other TFs in the vicinity or inbound.

Attu forts are 4.91. Defenses include a Marine CD unit with eight 155mm guns. That unit is 100% prepped. A Canadian brigade 70% prepped provides most of the infantry. It has "real" but early squads (IE, its not militia) that I hope will update to '43 squads shortly, but I haven't checked the pools for availability.

[HansBolter]

Strange direction for so many high speed moves in a row.

One would think that if he was looking to sweep in quickly and catch fleeing shipping his final move would have been a break to the east, not a move toward Attu.

A series of moves like this, that will likely result in a need for some yard time, would be better saved for a decisive use.

I don't see anything decisive about this move.

Strangely curious deployment, unless there is an unspotted invasion force inbound from due west that he needed to arrive in time to cover.

[Bif1961]

Maybe a whale watching tour. Japanese do love their whales.

[Canoerebel]

3/4/43 to 3/6/43

I still haven't figured it out - it was one of the standout sprints by KB that I've ever seen, but I don't know why he did it.

NoPac: On the 4th, KB just simply vanished - probably steaming W or SW to the Home Islands. No sign of enemy vessels approaching. Just quietness.

KB: Based upon what I saw, I think that was most or all of his fast carriers - 450 aircraft on ships capable of sustaining 17 hexes per day at flank speed. I think those ships will need at least some yard time. No matter what, I should have a few weeks before they could conceivably appear in the IO or around Tarawa, to intercept ongoing Allied ops.

Indian Ocean: Japanese patrols out of Siberoet (just off Sumatra's west coast) picked up Allied carriers and transports further west (partly a mistake on my part to not steer them further offshore). This invasion force is heading for Cocos Island, which doesn't have an airfield (still). The core of the invasion is 9th Aussie Div. (49% prepped). Lagging a bit behind because it started at Capetown, a Brit brigade 100% prepped is two days further back. I have a lot of carriers but not Yorktown or the USN CVEs. I think Dave's fast carriers are in NoPac. He'll likely have some slower carriers. I don't know what kind of garrison is at this base, which has a 30k stacking limit. I'm hoping/expecting no more than a mixed brigade and possibly only a regiment. I may not have enough to make this work, but Allied BBs may make a difference. I don't know whether Dave will contest or not. It probably depends on whether I've misperceived what's where and what he can bring to the event.

Tarawa: Yorktown and a number of related TFs are just offshore. Partly this is to stir Dave's thoughts in this direction, partly its to cover the insertion of additional supply in about ten days, as a bunch of xAKs are inbound.

China: No stirrings along the MLR.

Burma: P-38s dealt with modest CAP over Rangoon. Then about 25 4EB from Chittagong hammered the airfield destroying about 63 aircraft on the ground. That was a good mission.

SigInt: For better than a week, SigInt kept reporting 19th Engineering Reg't inbound to Tarawa; yesterday, the reported target changed to Yap. This is one of dozens of reports showing prep at mostly interior bases.

[Grollub]

Could it be that his CV's are heading back for refit/upgrades anyway and he's trying to catch something on the way home?