Shattered Vow

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
So what pleasure can a person derive from taking advantage of that flawed system to gain a decided advantage - an unfair advantage, in my book?  

I can't explain the 'pleasure' aspect of why this is happening to you as I am not privy to Miller's motives.

However, from a military perspective, I don't understand why the IJ player would want to so strain their lines for comparative little gain. Taking (and holding) resource centers in China makes a lot of sense as the IJ, provided that the cost or risk is outweighed by the benefit. There's a number of resource centers already in hand or dot hexes that are lightly defended that merit capture and exploitation by the IJ. I just don't understand why someone would try to push the Chinese back to Chungking when there is comparatively little to gain from most of these Chinese cities.

Similarly, after the rail lines to captured resource centers are in hand, is it really necessary to evict the Chinese from Changsa in order to derive benefit from holding the rest of SE China? Take what you must, hold what you have and defend in depth should be the focus as the IJ.

I think some IJ players fight, pillage and advance because they can. They've got a bunch of cool toys (24/ 30cm field artillery, anyone?) to play with and can't stand the thought of not using that stuff before the allies come and take it away.

Not only is the supply / damage issue unrealistic for an indefinitely sustained IJ offensive, Canoerebel, but so is the operational tempo. I would bet that Miller has no strategic reserve, no training units rotating from the line, no units on R&R and the like. This is as unrealistic for the IJ in 1943 as it is for any standing army today.

Really well spoken. I see it exactly the same way.
And (although we don´t have much experience in that respect) I would bet that will hasten the Japanese breakdown from the moment the allies are able to take over.

[JeffroK]

There must be 6-8 US Army/marine 155mm Bns just lazing in the tropical sun.

Maybe they need to go to Paramushiro to see how effective they are.

From Millers point of view, most of the tweaks have affected him so far, the factr that the will hurt you in the long run doesnt matter yet.

IMHO he has underachieved to this point, and probably sees this tactic as one of the few that will get him going again.

PS. Check the exp pts of your Darwin defenders, 800 AV of the Militia may not stand against a similar sized but experienced IJA assault.

[Canoerebel]

2/18/43 to 2/21/43

It's D Minus 7 and the invasion group is in place north of Attu Island. The TFs will steam slowly SW over the next six days and then take position near each respective target. As soon as the force is sighted by the enemy, the bombardment TF will head for Paramushiro. I'm chewing my nails:

1. The KB and Japanese BBs disappeared from the DEI a good week or ten days past. I *think* Miller anticipated an Allied move on Port Moresby and positioned his assets at Rabaul. He's recently put 30 Zeros on LRCAP over both PM and Milne Bay, which suggests he is attentive to this possibility.

2. But the last time I tried a little gambit like this - an invasion of Port Blair - Miller saw me coming and had a nice welcoming committee. The real problem was I didn't know that he knew. It is quite possible that Miller has looked at the calendar and anticpated this move. And perhaps his subs have made some little sightings and he's put two and two together.

3. I've ordered the combat ships and transports posted at Portland Roads, Australia, to move west into the Sea of Carpenthia. From there they head to Darwin. If Miller was anticipating a move on PM, this should shift the focus back to the DEI. I hope he will react by re-committing the KB there.

China: Elsewhere, devastating Japanese artillery bombardments have resumed at Chengtah. The artillery causes far more casualties alone than it was causing combined with infantry and combat engineers during deliberate attacks. I've asked Miller to ratchet down use of artillery; my proposal didn't suit him and he's suggested a ceasefire there; I don't want a ceasefire, so I've countered that we should proceed. I've put 1/3rd of my men into reserve.

Subwars: I-176 got an AKL at Saumlaki; Haddo got an AD near Soerabaja (earlier, Haddo bagged an AR and a damaged heavy CA, so this sub has become the star of the show for the Allies). Sub carnage hasn't exactly evened out yet - the Japanese are still doing more damage, but the performance/lethality gap has closed considerably since January 1.

Burma: The Japanese took Myitkina. This is fine - I had abandoned it in '42. Then a game patch meant I lost VPs each day because it was ungarrisoned, so I had to march a unit cross-country to halt the bleeding.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Haddo got an AD near Soerabaja (earlier, Haddo bagged an AR and a damaged heavy CA, so this sub has become the star of the show for the Allies).

Outstanding work, Haddo! That AR alone is worth the CMH! Extremely valuable and rare pick! The AD and the CA are nice bonuses.

What are your Captain's stats on the Haddo?

[Canoerebel]

Not as impressive as you'd think given his peformance.  Here's Haddo's stats:
 
Lieutenant Commander J. Corbus - Leadership 56; Inspiration 53.
Crew Experience - Day 55; Night 58.
 
 

[Chickenboy]

Put a CMH on his neck. I bet his 'inspiration' goes up at least a couple points...

[:D]

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Make sure you hold Darwin securely, Miller hay decide its easier to cut out Darwin than Samlauki, just as you have planned against Akyab

Keep the faith, how many times did you talk yourself out of an attack against John III.

He did many a time when I was vulnerable as all heck!

Course he also attacked straight through one of the most nasty Fight-CAP Traps ever set-up and it made NO DIFFERENCE. That was tenacity!

Go get 'em DAN! I haven't had a chance to ready the whole AAR. Plan to do so tomorrow if I get enough time.

[Canoerebel]

2/22/43 to 2/25/43
 
Operation Port Royal:  The invasion TFs are just west of Attu and, to my knowledge, haven't been detected.  However, Miller clearly suspects something is up.  He protested via email that he thought my ships at Portland Roads, Australia, were some kind of diversion and that he thinks something big is up.  But does he suspect where?  That I don't know.  The Allies have just invaded two small Ellice Islands (Funafuti and Vainaputo or something like that) so perhaps he expecting something in SoPac or CenPac.  But during the first day of our two day turn I could see some kind of TF off the east coast of Japan - never got a chance to see what it was or where it might be going.  So for all I know Miller has outguessed me and I'm heading right for the KB.  So I had to make a decision - turn back and miss an opportunity, or proceed and take a chance that disaster awaits.  I have elected to proceed.

Recon:  An Allied DD will spring ahead into the waters NE of Japan proper and see if it encounters any bad news.  Meanwhile, the invasion groups will steam to a point fairly close to Paramushiro.  The forecast is for overcast skies, so I think my ships can be sighted by patrol aircraft; if not tomorrow, certainly by the 27th.  Beginning on the 28th, the Allies will begin air reconnaisance of Paramushiro from Attu (using a long-range B-24 recon squadron).  A sub near Kendari sighted at least two Japanese BBs here.  This doesn't tell me much.  Even if Miller sent the KB and a bunch of BBs toward NoPac, he'd leave behind the Mini-KB and some BBs to guard the DEI.

Invasion Timetable:  The two-day turns catch me on the wrong foot - March 1 is on the second day of the turns.  So I either have to wait or try to get things "just right" to have my ships arrive on the second day of the two day turn.  This is more ticklish than it sounds.  Miscalculate and arrive early and my unloading troops will be decimated by Arctic winter conditions.  We'll see how things go.  I expect landings to commence on the 1st or 2nd unless Miller has outguessed me.  If he has I will need to take a few days off to gather my wits, because the Allies have already lost a tremendous amount of ships in the game.

SWPac:  The ships that had waited at Portland Roads so long for an "all clear" were what aroused Miller's curiosity.  They ended serving as a diversion (as I had begun to suspect) even though that wasn't their purpose.  I was just afraid to send them to Darwin since I didn't know the whereabouts of the KB.  Several days ago, however, I finally decided that the KB just about had to be at Rabaul, so I sent the ships.  They've just made it to Darwin.  That gives me two BBs (Washington and Mississippi) and three good combat TFs at Darwin.  I also used part of that same long-distance B-24 recon unit mentioned above to recon Truk from Merauke a few days ago.  I bet this gave Miller pause.  Nothing significant was sighted there - the KB wasn't there.  I hope this, along with the little Ellice Island invasions (these were done by Kiwi and Fiji troops and were unopposed) has Miller guessing "Wake" or "Tarawa" or something of that sort.  Still no sign of the Japanese moving on Saumlaki.

Burma:  My troops are moving SLOWLY across country to try to sever the road leading out of Akyab.  But once they get way out there it may be that THEY are the ones to get cut off.  Don't know yet if this was a good idea or not.

China:  Massed Japanese bombardments at Changsha did little damage (seven forts are effective against artillery).  Two recent bombardments at Chengtah, where forts are three, resulted in about 40% of the casualties I had suffered a few days ago.  I don't yet know whether the reduction is due to my placing 1/3rd of my troops in reserve or if Miller had utilized fewer of his arty units.  I've asked him and will update when he replies.

Subwars:  Harder got an AO near Nagasaki; I-17 got an AK near Perth.

Lonesome Losers:  PoW and Revenge safely made it to port after departing Darwin in damaged condition.  PoW is upgrading at Melbourne and will need time in a shipyard.  Revenge is heading to Sydney and will need the same.  North Carolina is at Hobart and has 36 major FLT damage.  I'll probably send all three of these ships to the West Coast.  Meanwhile, BB Massachusetts is on the way to Tahiti from the Panama Canal and South Dakota is finishing a refit at Sydney.  When those two are ready to go, they'll join Missisissippi and Washington at Darwin.

[Canoerebel]

Got this email message from my opponent, which makes my day:
 
"Ah, so your going for the Kuriles it seems, and my carriers are way out of position......good move. Obviously I will need a bit of extra time to work on this turn....."

[LoBaron]

Looks good Canorebel. Think he will rush the KB to the Kuriles?

[Canoerebel]

He's got to do something - he won't know that I'll be content to stop at the islands I'm taking, so worrying will probably get the best of him for at least a little while.  He''s got to beef up his ground and air defenses at Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido no matter what.  I think there's a good chance he'll be worried enough to send his fast fleet carriers this way and they can probably arrive before I'm done unloading, attacking, and getting the Para airfield (level four) up and running and covered by CAP.

It sounds like the Allies have achieved both strategic and operational suprise, which is a relief given the way my past two invasions (Luganville and Port Blair) turned out.

I'll bet he leaves the Mini-KB and slow fleet carriers behind in the DEI. 

[Altaris]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

China:  Massed Japanese bombardments at Changsha did little damage (seven forts are effective against artillery).  Two recent bombardments at Chengtah, where forts are three, resulted in about 40% of the casualties I had suffered a few days ago.  I don't yet know whether the reduction is due to my placing 1/3rd of my troops in reserve or if Miller had utilized fewer of his arty units.  I've asked him and will update when he replies.

I'm almost positive it's the Reserve mode making the difference. Those troops in Reserve don't get hit by bombardments, unless that have to get pulled into Combat mode to make the attacker:defender AV ratio 2:1

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Altaris
I'm almost positive it's the Reserve mode making the difference. Those troops in Reserve don't get hit by bombardments, unless that have to get pulled into Combat mode to make the attacker:defender AV ratio 2:1

It wasn't reserve status - he had stood down a bunch of his artillery. He used them all again the past two turns and the damage was essentially the same as before I put troops on reserve status.

[Canoerebel]

Update:  I've issued the invasion orders and it's complicated, both because of the size of the commitment, the mechanics of the game, and the two-day turns. 
 
1.  Because March 1 falls on the 2nd day of our two-day turn, I have to "judge right" to have my units close enough to hit the beaches on the 1st, but not so close they arrive a day early and get eaten alive by Arctic Winter effects.  I've used waypoints to try to accomplish this, but we'll see whether that's effective.
 
2.  Many troop convoys are set to follow the main TF to Paramushiro.  I hope they follow those orders and then unload as they should.
 
3.  I have done the same routine for the ships heading to Onnekotan Jima. 
 
4.  The big bombardment TF will hit Paramushiro on the 28th and stay there.
 
5.  The three CVE TFs will take station one hex south of Para (which is one hex north of Onne).
 
6.  I've crossed my fingers.
 
7.  Japanese recon sighted everything yesterday, so Miller knows what's coming.  Allied CAP knocked down quite a few patrol aircraft, and TBFs sank a big AS at Paramushiro (the first casualty of the operation).  I thought I had stripped off all my TBFs and sent them to Attu (I don't want my fighters to serve as escorts - I want them only to serve as CAP).  I'm glad I forgot the one TBF unit, but now I've sent it on to Attu.  I don't have any more strike aircraft.
 
8.  I've crossed my fingers again.  I think Miller could load up his airfields - Para is a 4, Shimisomething is a 2, and of course he has the fields on Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido.  I don't anticipate carriers for at least four days, maybe longer.  My biggest enemy now would be blundering and having my troops try to land a day early.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Update:  I've issued the invasion orders and it's complicated, both because of the size of the commitment, the mechanics of the game, and the two-day turns. 

1.  Because March 1 falls on the 2nd day of our two-day turn, I have to "judge right" to have my units close enough to hit the beaches on the 1st, but not so close they arrive a day early and get eaten alive by Arctic Winter effects.  I've used waypoints to try to accomplish this, but we'll see whether that's effective.

2.  Many troop convoys are set to follow the main TF to Paramushiro.  I hope they follow those orders and then unload as they should.

3.  I have done the same routine for the ships heading to Onnekotan Jima. 

4.  The big bombardment TF will hit Paramushiro on the 28th and stay there.

5.  The three CVE TFs will take station one hex south of Para (which is one hex north of Onne).

6.  I've crossed my fingers.

7.  Japanese recon sighted everything yesterday, so Miller knows what's coming.  Allied CAP knocked down quite a few patrol aircraft, and TBFs sank a big AS at Paramushiro (the first casualty of the operation).  I thought I had stripped off all my TBFs and sent them to Attu (I don't want my fighters to serve as escorts - I want them only to serve as CAP).  I'm glad I forgot the one TBF unit, but now I've sent it on to Attu.  I don't have any more strike aircraft.

8.  I've crossed my fingers again.  I think Miller could load up his airfields - Para is a 4, Shimisomething is a 2, and of course he has the fields on Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido.  I don't anticipate carriers for at least four days, maybe longer.  My biggest enemy now would be blundering and having my troops try to land a day early.

Not exactly a good sign if Paramushiro is a level 4 AF and Shimushiri a level 2. Both start as level 0. This indicates some preparations by your opponent. Seems that he expected some action here. But maybe you are lucky and he just considered to invade the Aleutians or Alaska sometime earlier, made some preparations for offensive moves and later abandoned his plans?

[Canoerebel]

The landings have commenced with some things going right and some things going wrong:

1.  None of my ships arrived too early.

2.  Some of my ships didn't go where they were supposed to go, meaning some troops didn't begin unloading and some ships were left without CAP.  This cost me a few ships to LBA, but nothing critical.

3.  Both Onnekotan and Para have just a Naval Guard unit apiece.  I'm going to divert the Ketoi Jima troops to Onne as I want to make good and sure that base is handled.  I have most of two Marine regiments ashore at Para, but an infantry division and regiment will commence unloading tomorrow.  I won't try a shock attack for two more days.  I would expect it to be successful.

4.  I've corraled the ships that went astray and they should be back in position.

5.  Para was mined and there was a sub there.  I've lost two ships to mines (a DMS and an LCI) and three AKs to a sub.  I think I got the sub.

6.  Another sub bagged my AR at Attu Island.

7.  I expect Para to fall relatively easily.  I am a little concerned about Onnekotan because my transports were roughed up (they were the enemy focused on in the absence of my CAP) and what I have ashore thus far is pathetic.

8.  I don't anticipate arrival of the KB over the next two days and it could be four or six or more (if Miller has to refuel on the way).

[Chickenboy]

Can your medium bombers reach Sakhalin bases from Paramushiro under 'normal' range modifiers? You may be able to effect strategic bombing on either of these two great resource producers without the need to capture them.

If you're flying B-25s, the AF 4 should suffice for you to fly under normal range with the B-25 payload, IIRC.

ETA: Honshu may also be in jeapordy. The Japs have to import beaucoup resources from this island in the game to feed their resource pig. Several good bases to bomb that should also be in B-25 range from Para or a couple other Kuriles, IIRC.

[Canoerebel]

I can build Paramushiro airfield to level seven, so it's going to pose a grave risk to anything on Sikhalin and Hokkaido, and some risk to northern Honshu. 

We've reached March 3 and things have been weird.  The invasion has been unopposed by enemy combat ships or carriers, but the Paramushiro fortress has torn up my ships.  The total failure of my CAP to stop enemy bombers despite a decided advantage in numbers, and to a lesser but noticeable effect mines and subs have also claimed some shps.  I haven't tallied the total ships lost, yet, but it's going to be a very high number.

I should take Para tomorrow (980 AV ashore and in good shape vs. less than 100 defensive AV).  Onnekotan may be another matter - it's much closer.

I've got to take Para, because I assume the KB will arrive fairly soon.  Probably not the next two-day turn, but thereafter all bets are off.  I need to transfer my CVE fighters to the airfield and replace the losses.  Then, even if the KB shows up, I'm not completely defenseless.

[Canoerebel]

3/4/43 and 3/5/43
 
Operation Port Royal:  The Allies took both Parmushiro Jima and Onnekotan Jima on the 4th.  I will immediately move my CVE fighters to the field at Paramushiro (if it isn't damaged to badly) and try to replace their losses.  If I can do that, land-base fighters will take over CAP duty and I'll try to get my carriers out of dodge.  I have some damaged ships that need to evacuate also.  I'll leave the battleship (Warspite, Indiana, and an older ship) TF in place to protect against the surface combat strike force that has to be headed this way.
 
Paramushiro:  The Allies hold Para in strength - over 1,000 AV, CD force, two artillery units, engineers, and AA.   I think Miller will go all out to re-take the island, but he'll be fighting two things:  (1) I'll try to keep the heat on in the DEI; and (2) the Allies get a bunch of carriers by July.  At that point he won't rule the seas any longer.
 
Onnekotan:  This is primarily a buffer - to give me something between Para and the enemy.  There are two infantry units, two CDs, three artillery, and a base force ashore.  Since the Japanese are not great at amphibious assault, I'm hoping those CDs will really carry some punch.
 
SWPac:  B-24s from Merauke and Portland Roads hit the port at Rabaul and did some damage to a variety of transports and support ships.  I've just transported two SeaBee units to the island one hex NW of Darwin - it has good base potential and will help me with air cover when the time comes to move forward.
 
Burma:  Allied units have advanced into the hex east of Akyab, thus isolated that base.  I don't know yet what Miller will do - advance to fight?  Stay put and let me starve?  Supply by sea?  Evacuate by sea?  I really don't care that much - Burma is a diversion.  The war will be won in the DEI and Pacific (yes, I know Burma is a route to the SRA, but I'm not going that way this game).
 
China:  Miller just launched a 1:2 attack at Changteh costing him 9k to 5k for me.  That's not good.  The Chinese can't fight in the open and I'm about to lose my forts (thanks to the dramatic affect of massed artillery).  If I lose Changteh I probably have to evacuate Changsha, Hengyang, Kweilin, and Liuchow.  I guess my opponent thinks he's quite the stuff having massacred China with massed artillery.  Too me, it's like playing chess against an opponent who doesn't have a queen or rooks.  I mean, you can beat them, but what satisfaction do you take from it?  The only time he's advanced in China was when he employed massed artillery.  That and strategic bombing has crippled me in China.
 
Long Range:  For now I need to lick my wounds in the DEI and NoPac.  I've gained positions from which I can sit back and use my air forces to duke it out - attritioning the enemy.  I think I can take quite a time to marshal my forces, handle logistics, and rebuild my transport fleet.  It will likely be a LONG time before the Allies are ready to move forward with another big operation.  But we're not in bad shape - strong position on the fringes of the eastern DEI, strong base at Merauke (New Guinea), reclaimed Luganville and building the islands to the north, held Midway, and now have two the Kuriles.  Considering it's March '43, that's not too bad.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Can your medium bombers reach Sakhalin bases from Paramushiro under 'normal' range modifiers? You may be able to effect strategic bombing on either of these two great resource producers without the need to capture them.

If you're flying B-25s, the AF 4 should suffice for you to fly under normal range with the B-25 payload, IIRC.

ETA: Honshu may also be in jeapordy. The Japs have to import beaucoup resources from this island in the game to feed their resource pig. Several good bases to bomb that should also be in B-25 range from Para or a couple other Kuriles, IIRC.

I'm continually amazed at the "non use" of this approach to the Home islands, as you point out it has the ability to start working on the bombing of japanese facilities.
It shouldnt be hard to put a Bde sized unit on Paramushiro, Etorofu, Sakhalin etc to make it safe. The added ability for the Allies to get into a threatening position and stay under LBA cover should see it as a No 1 defensive front.

Well done Dan, now make him run back to the other side of the map!!!