Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

The critical part of this intel is that 2nd Division has boarded transports and is no longer on the ground in NE India. Now, if Brad has orchestrated a deception and I find 2nd Division landing at Surat, India, in a week or so, then every warning bell in the book will be ringing: "Danger! Brad's coming all-out for India!"

But if the transports are indeed toting 2nd Division somewhere other than India (or the islands involved in the India campaign including Diego Garcia and the one just off the Italian East Africa coast), then where they are ultimately heading isn't of particular importance. I can't imagine a Japanese player parking a veteran division in Truk, so I would expect Brad to move it to another location.

My hunch is that 2nd Division is departing India, but I'll keep my eyes open for an amphibious landing during the next week or two.

[Canoerebel]

Smeulders post is interesting too. To answer his pondering: I don't think Brad is merely shifting 2nd Division to another India base. Railroad would be faster and more efficient to every base he holds other than Goa, and Goa doesn't make sense because troops landing there would be moving on places (Bombay, etc.) reached more expeditiously by land/rail.

[Canoerebel]

6/19/42

Premature Evaluation: Okay, so I may be jumping the gun in hoping that Brad is withdrawing from India. This turn I suddenly find 13 IJ units at Poona, where there had been just three the day before. That represents a threat to Bombay, so I'm rounding up my remaining units prepping for Bombay. The final AV there should be around 1900 or so. I've also bumped up the "supply request" to maximum. The Allied bombers continue to hit Poona's airfield without opposition. I'd like to stop Brad from building that field (it's currently level one).

Tea Leaf Reading: Man, gathering all the intel and info possible, and then trying to interpret it when every possible interpretation has an equal and opposite interpretation making it nearly impossible to draw conclusions...yet. Tough going.

Elsewhere in India: A Japanese unit or two is fanning out from the spearhead just east of Cawnpore, but thus far I get the distinct feeling that Brad isn't making a concerted push here. The first transports carrying Marines (tank unit and artillery unit) from the USA arrived at Capetown and is proceding on to Mombassa.

NoPac: 5th Marine CD's 5" guns are mostly unloaded now.

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

6/19/42

Premature Evaluation: Okay, so I may be jumping the gun in hoping that Brad is withdrawing from India. This turn I suddenly find 13 IJ units at Poona, where there had been just three the day before. That represents a threat to Bombay, so I'm rounding up my remaining units prepping for Bombay. The final AV there should be around 1900 or so. I've also bumped up the "supply request" to maximum. The Allied bombers continue to hit Poona's airfield without opposition. I'd like to stop Brad from building that field (it's currently level one).

You're correct to be careful with SigInt interpretations. I think I declared landings in Australia imminent twice in my AAR, based on SigInt, yet nothing every materialized.

[Canoerebel]

I think my level of excitement when I momentarily thought Brad might be pulling back is an indication that I'm more worried about India than perhaps I realized.

In any event, a Japanese invasion of the remaining coastal India controlled by the Allies would be way too late to accomplish anything. A few months ago a landing at Surat would have unhinged everything for me - I would have had to scramble to try to get troops to my final redoubt positions, and I think I would've lost quite a few units.

But at this point an invasion of Surat (or the base across the bay) would simply bog down a Japanese army on remote roads while nearly all Allied units are already in or very close to the "final redoubt positions." So he's welcome to invade these bases (my other two ports - Bombay and Karachi - are heavily defended, have CD guns, and can be reached by land, so I can't imagine why he'd choose to invade either).

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

While I agree with the logic of this approach from a strictly Allied military balance perspective, 99.9% of games where the Allies run and hide until >January 1944 will wind up dropped by the IJ player-and with good cause. PBEM is an application of tactical and strategic military principles, true enough. But it's also a game that's supposed to be fun for both players.

Philosophically, how is this "no offensives until 1944" different than "I wanna wait until I get A-bombs to start an offensive"? Only different by degrees. I would probably drop a game if the latter approach was adopted.

+1

[Canoerebel]

6/20/42
 
India in the Air:  An ugly turn as the Tojo showed up in Poona.  As a result, the Allied air raid suffered 31 to 1 casualties in air-to-air.  That's awful.  Fortunately, enough IJ aircraft were lost on the ground and to ops to render the overall losses for the day barely more than 2:1.  Still, this suggests that it will be nearly impossible for the Allies to shut down Poona base-building operations.  I'm shifting some American fighter units to Bombay and we'll try again another day (using some B-17s this time).
 
India on the Ground:  There are now 19 IJ units at Poona.  Obviously, Bombay is Brad's chief focus now.  The Allies currently have 1600 AV with another 650 on the way.  I will probably leave it at that.  The other Japanese spearhead is just east of Cawnpore, but it appears to be more of a "holding the Allies in check here" position.  Down south, that Indian division is still trying to escape the trap, but I don't know if it can.
 
India Reinforcements:  An Indian brigade and three UK brigades arrive at Aden over the next 20 days.  27th US Division, aboard transports, arrived at Cristobal yesterday and is departing for Capetown (a three-week journey).  The Wasp/North Carolina TF is about ten days out of Capetown.
 
Reading the Tea Leaves:  I am totally flummoxed at this point.  I don't have a real strong feel about Brad's ultimate goal in India.  I will continue my current plan - defending Bombay, Karachi, and one of three other cities (probably Ahmadebad, but possibly either Cawnpore or Delhi); getting ground troops from Aden to Karachi; and using the Allied carriers if it's necessary to prevent the fall of Allied India.
 
NoPac:  5th Marine CD finished unloading at Attu Island and all ships departed without incident.  That will be it for the Attu garrison -225 AV including two CD units.  I will continue to send support units to the Aleutians to promote the appearance of a build up.  Also, if and when political points are available, I'll send more Canadians to some of the forward islands - Amchitka and Adak are highest priority.

[Canoerebel]

6/21/42
 
India:  Patrols report a Japanese transport fleet south of Colombo.  I'm thinking this will be the invasion of Diego Garcia.  Elsewhere in India a routine turn.
 
Elsewhere on the Map:  Lots going on from a logistics standpoint, but nothing worth reporting.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
using the Allied carriers if it's necessary to prevent the fall of Allied India.

How do you envision their employment being successful in preventing the fall of India once Brad has his LCUs ashore with good supply?

[Canoerebel]

Brad already has all his LCUs ashore.  I assume he also has good supply (no reason that he shouldn't).

The problem he has is that taking urban hexes with strong garrisons is very difficult and time consuming.  I want to strongly defend three major urban hexes - Bombay, Karachi, and probably Ahmadebad (or possibly Cawnpore or Delhi).  Bombay already has an AV of 1900 and will have about 2200 in a few days.  Right now, I can probably get about 1500 AV in the other two, but I need more reinforcements from Aden to meet the 2000+ goal.  I will use the Allied carriers to provide escort to transports moving from Aden/Abadan to Karachi.

What do I have coming? An Indian brigade and a UK division arrive at Aden over the next twenty days (total AV = 590). Beginning a few turns ago, I have a period in which two Marine regiments, a Marine tank unit, and a Marine artillery unit are arriving in Capetown and departing for Aden (that's about 350 AV). These will go in scattered convoys to reduce risk. Finally, 27th Army Division arrives in Capetown in less than a month (390 AV). The Allied carriers will escort these transports to Aden (unless circumstances change in the interim).

With 2200 AV, urban terrain, and six forts there, what kind of effort will be required of Brad to take Bombay?  Say he commits 12 divisions plus to the attack so that he has 6,000 AV.  I think the first attack would really mess up his troops.  It should take him a heck of a long time, and then he would still have two more such bases to vanquish. And, if he does move on Ahmadebad, Delhi and/or Karachi, he triggers additional reinforcements that boosts those garrisons considerably.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking toward the days when some big reinforcements arrive in Aden and when the Allies will be in a position to take major offensive action elsewhere.

Is my analysis flawed? 

[Chickenboy]

No, I don't think your analysis is flawed with the assumptions and numbers you've provided.

However, I still don't understand how you envision USN carrier employment to be paramount at this point. What is it they could do to help you? Bomb LCUs with DBs? Provide LRCAP over beseiged cities? How will they tilt the decisive land battle for India if Brad doesn't play along with his naval forces?

If you can't come up with a rationale for how their involvement here would tilt India in your favor, perhaps it's time to reconsider where to focus them?

[Canoerebel]

The carriers will only be used to ensure that the transports carrying the reinforcements make it to Karachi.  IE, they will only be exposed to danger briefly (once transiting the small area of ocean between Mombassa and Aden, and once covering the small area from Abadan to Karachi).  Once the reinforcements land the carriers would depart.  They will not be involved in offensive activity at all.
 
I know when and where the Allied carriers are to be used.  I haven't detailed this part of my plan in the AAR for OpSec reasons, but my hope is to delay their use until early '43 at soonest or autumn '43 at latest.

[Canoerebel]

I forgot to mention one other potential use of the Allied carriers in India.
 
I keep thinking that eventually Brad will use his combat TFs to bombard Bombay and/or Karachi, or to interdict Allied shipping at Karachi.  Should he do so, I would consider employing the Allied carriers.
 
One other note:  I also think there will be mounting concern on Brad's part about leaving his carriers in the India region (assuming they are there even now).  He'll probably want to have his carriers present in the Pacific to counter whatever potential Allied moves most worry him. 
 
He can send his carriers elsewhere and relegate India to a land/LBA campaign now, but doing so does leave him unable (I think) to stop Allied shipping in and out of Karachi.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
He can send his carriers elsewhere and relegate India to a land/LBA campaign now, but doing so does leave him unable (I think) to stop Allied shipping in and out of Karachi.

Don't forget his Nells and Bettys.

[Canoerebel]

I don't think Nells and Bettys would do well against a strong CAP at distance, and for Brad to get airfields close enough to really give it a go he'd end up triggering reinforcements.  By the time he could get airfields decently close to Karachi it will be late '42.  No, I just don't think he'll be able to use LBA to shut down shipping to Karachi.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't think Nells and Bettys would do well against a strong CAP at distance, and for Brad to get airfields close enough to really give it a go he'd end up triggering reinforcements.  By the time he could get airfields decently close to Karachi it will be late '42.  No, I just don't think he'll be able to use LBA to shut down shipping to Karachi.

Makes sense. To be honest, I don't look at that part of the map very much. [;)]

[Chickenboy]

You may wish to review LBA LRCAP rules. The effectiveness of such LRCAP rules mean that, in the absence of overwhelming numbers of aircraft dedicated to LRCAP of naval TFs, comparatively few aircraft actually show up. He will not have that problem with his escorting aircraft.

You've been losing lots of fighters too, right? Will the RAF have sufficient strength to hold off IJAAF throughout India AND provide overwhelming LRCAP benefits to your incoming troop transports?

So, you're talking about relegating your aircraft carriers to convoy escort duty? Within Betty / escort range for your opponent? I'd take a shot at that every day of the week...

Your carriers, unless employed for slash and kill efforts are a liability as much as they are a resource. Assigning this liability to convoy duty and having them tethered to a slow, laden convoy in a known location is about the least desireable thing I'd do with 'em.

My last words on the matter: Either commit them for some counteroffensive use or don't commit them at all. The middle ground here (what you're proposing with convoy escort duty) is probably the worst place to be tactically positioned-tethered to a high value target on a known route to a known destination moving at slow speed. 'Nuff said.

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, I don't think I've done a good job explaining my plans to use my carriers.  The Allied carriers will only be required once and for a very brief window, when I'm ready to send 27th Division into Karachi (and any other land units backed up in the event Brad has begun contesting shipping into Karachi).  If Brad isn't contesting Karachi at that time - about two months from now - I won't need to use my carriers. Once they've finsihed escorting 27th Division, they retire and resume their fleet in being function.

I don't think Brad will have any airfields within range of Karachi at that point, so I don't envision LBA being a factor. If it is, I'll re-evaluate. 

[crsutton]

I have not found LBA to be a problem for very well capped carriers. Like CR says unless he gets close to Karachi it will be very hard for him to mount a betty attack big enough and well escorted enough to get to the carriers. Frankly from what I have seen as the Allied player, Japanese subs present more of a threat to Allied carriers in 42 than LBA. (as long as you don't stick your hand too deep into the bee's nest) Limiting your carriers exposure on the map also limits the ability of the Japanese player to torpedo one.

[Canoerebel]

6/22/42

India in the Air:  Today was as good as yesterday was bad.  100 Allied fighters from Bombay swept Poona, scoring a 2:1 victory against perhaps 25 or 30 Japanese Zero and Tojo fighters (21 IJ fighters downed to 10 Allied).  My guys will return tomorrow along with some B-17, A-20, Hudson and B-25 bombers.

India at Sea:  An invasion force is nearing Diego Garcia.  I have most of an Indian brigade there behind four forts (a cadre of this brigade was long ago evacuated to Mombassa).  Brad is probably bringing a division plus.

India on the Land:  24 IJ units at Poona, but they haven't moved forward yet.