The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

Woke up very early today and thought i'd share some considerations.
 
Why Rader is waiting so much?
 
That's the question now. Think CR is right when he says Rader isn't going to get cold feet right now. He has clearly showed he's a fast pace player and that he normally has a big scope in minds when he decides to take a strategic decision.
So what it takes?
Rader has conquered everything south of LOD. Colombo has fallen, Diego, Addu and Scoodra too. Bombay is in his hands with his precious port. What else he needs?
 
As far as i can tell Rader's phylosophy for what concerns land operations is to concentrate, move fast and encircle the enemy always using the air power as tactical artillery. In China and in southern India he was able to outflank all my defensive positions pinning down my units with hundreds of bombers, sending his tanks corps to cut my supply lines and then using the infantry masses to push me into oblivion.
But now that he has pushed me back to the corner where i have nowhere to retreat his options are becomming fewer.
Now i am able to concentrate on a strongpoint and not to fear any outflanking.
Now my air force, even if affected with all the well known problems (inferior airframes, inferior pilots, and above all inferior numbers), is dening him the air supremacy over the battlefields and i think without this air supremacy he doesn't want to tangle with my units.
 
let's assume he has 12,000 AVs in India.
Let's say he has 10.000 AVs ready to cross the LOD (think that at least 2000 AVs will have to be left behind guarding Colombo, Diego, Scoodra, etc).
I have 5150 AVs massed between Jodpur, Hyderabad and Karachi. Will be almost instantly 5500 if he crosses.
If he wants to dislodge 5500 AVs from well prepped positions (forts level 6 or 7 almost everywhere and building) he has to use his air force and, above all, he has to deny me the controll of the airspace above the battleground.
 
I really think this is the only reason he's waiting...he wants to annihilate my air force and be sure to have a total air supremacy before crossing the LOD.
i think it's reasonable. The strategy sounds good to me.
 

[Canoerebel]

It's not good strategy:
 
1.  If he had imposed an airtight blockade of Karachi, perhaps he could take his own sweet time.  But he hasn't.
 
2.  Thus, he doesn't know when the next reinforcements will arrive at Karachi.  For all he knows, a 420-AV UK Division could arrive tomorrow.  No Japanese player - especially an experienced one - would give the Allies another month or two to bring in another 1,000 or more AV plus life-giving supplies.
 
3.  It would be easier and less costly for him to eradicate your airforce by reducing you to just one airfield.  If he took Ahmadebad, Jodpur, Hyderabad, Delhi, etc., so that you were down to just Karachi, the Allied airforce would be toast.  You wouldn't be able to rotate your aircraft or repair damage fast enough, and his pilots wouldn't be flying as far over enemy territory.
 
Since rader is an experienced player, he wouldn't be doing these things if he really intended to go for northwest India.  Thus, he may not be coming.  And yet I can't beileve an experienced player like him would make such a huge mistake in letting you off the hook.  Wow!

[Miller]

I am a JFB but certainly routing for GreyJoy in this one. Re his a/c losses....In scn 2 at this stage of the game he can be building 500 fighters a month without hurting his industrial capacity in other areas. How many 1st line fighters do the Allies get in total per month at the moment? Even the 2-3:1 Ratio of kills you are seeing is probably favouring him at the moment.

PILOT losses are another matter, especially IJN pilots....as there are not very many land based Claude/Zero Sqds that can be used as training units (as of mid 42).

Re overall strategy, I cannot see the point in any Cenpac operations at this time......KB and Netties would crush anything you attempt (IMO) and you have already seen how effective they are when that decoy convoy and your APDs got whacked......

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's not good strategy:

1.  If he had imposed an airtight blockade of Karachi, perhaps he could take his own sweet time.  But he hasn't.

2.  Thus, he doesn't know when the next reinforcements will arrive at Karachi.  For all he knows, a 420-AV UK Division could arrive tomorrow.  No Japanese player - especially an experienced one - would give the Allies another month or two to bring in another 1,000 or more AV plus life-giving supplies.

3.  It would be easier and less costly for him to eradicate your airforce by reducing you to just one airfield.  If he took Ahmadebad, Jodpur, Hyderabad, Delhi, etc., so that you were down to just Karachi, the Allied airforce would be toast.  You wouldn't be able to rotate your aircraft or repair damage fast enough, and his pilots wouldn't be flying as far over enemy territory.

Since rader is an experienced player, he wouldn't be doing these things if he really intended to go for northwest India.  Thus, he may not be coming.  And yet I can't beileve an experienced player like him would make such a huge mistake in letting you off the hook.  Wow!

CR, if he wasn't coming i think we wound not be seeing increasing numbers of units present in India...bow between Surat and Bangwhatever(north of Surat) there are 160 units!! Plus all those regiments reported by the Intel coming to Calcutta...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Miller

I am a JFB but certainly routing for GreyJoy in this one. Re his a/c losses....In scn 2 at this stage of the game he can be building 500 fighters a month without hurting his industrial capacity in other areas. How many 1st line fighters do the Allies get in total per month at the moment? Even the 2-3:1 Ratio of kills you are seeing is probably favouring him at the moment.

PILOT losses are another matter, especially IJN pilots....as there are not very many land based Claude/Zero Sqds that can be used as training units (as of mid 42).

Re overall strategy, I cannot see the point in any Cenpac operations at this time......KB and Netties would crush anything you attempt (IMO) and you have already seen how effective they are when that decoy convoy and your APDs got whacked......

Thanks Miller for your support even being a JFB [:D]
the question now is: So what i'm supposed to do?

I'm producing 35 hurri IIc, 35 P-40Es and 25 P-39Ds plus some 15 P38s per month...and that's all for what concerns fighters...it is really bad isn't it?!
But what should i do now?

[Canoerebel]

He certainly should come for Karachi. He would take it and it will be a signal victory for Japan. But waiting around was a mistake if during the interim you're getting supplies and reinforcements to Karachi. By the way, what are your AVs, forts, and supply level in NW India (give this for each base if possible).

As for employing your fighters, the "default setting" should be to continue fighting. You're exacting a big toll on him and he's not fighting under optimum conditions (due primarily to distance and Allied ability to shuffle fighters around to get some rest and avoid excessive damage from enemy raids). However, the default setting is subject to constant review and reevaluation. Supply status, effective loss ratio, and probable pilot-attrition ratio would be important factors in each reevaluation.

[GreyJoy]

Karachi has 290.000 supplies, 220.000 fuel, 7 forts and building, port 6 and AF 9. More or less 2200 AVs that can be moved fast if needed to Jodpur or Hyderabad (S). The base has 580 engeneers and 660 aviation support

Hyderabad has 150.000 supplies, 6 forts and building, AF 9. More or less 2200 AVs. The base has 430 eng and 520 aviation support

JodPur has 50.000 supplies, AF level 4, 5 forts and 850 AVs. The base has 300 aviation support and 250 engeneers

[GreyJoy]

For what concerns Pilots i have plenty of american pilots in the pools and my losses so far have been light...less than 100 pilots KIA during the battle for India.

[jeffk3510]

what are your exp and appropriate skill levels for those pilots?

[Canoerebel]

That's a pretty strong deployment, good supplies, and good forts. You've done well. Your opponent has been negligent in giving you time to prepare such defenses. He should have never let up.

A few things:

1) A level nine airfield with 250 aviation support can handle unlimited aircraft. (IE, the 250 aviation support is sufficient no matter how many aircraft you have.) You have more aviaton support that you need. I'm not sure you want to take the chance on evacuating the excess to Aden, but at least think the option through.

2) Why is fuel so important to you? You have way more than you need and won't need more for a long time. Don't send any more tankers to Karachi until you've won the battle.

3) Jodpur is an interesting position. Ordinarly, you'd have to abandon it as soon as rader crossed the line, but you have good forts and it's in the desert, so I doubt he can afford to bypass it - I don't think his units would draw any supply. And yet, you can't afford to allow your garrison to get isolated. So, if he crosses the line, what will you do with your Jodpur garrison?

4) He might elect to come down the river valley from Lahore rather than crossing the desert.

5) Unless he brings a suprisingly weak force, which would be the height of folly on his part, you won't be able to stand and fight at Hyderabad, Jodpur or anywhere short of Karachi. Do not have troops prepping for Jodpur, Hyderabad, etc. You can't hold those bases against a full assault, nor can you afford to have the garrisons isolated or destroyed. If he comes, you'll have to pull back everywhere, so prepping for anyplace but Karachi is a waste and will weaken you final fortress. All of your troops should be prepping for Karachi.

5) With 5,000+ AV, seven forts (or eight or nine by then), Karachi will be a bear of titanic proportions if you can keep it supplied.

Your opponent should be flogged for standing down at the critical moment in the game.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

what are your exp and appropriate skill levels for those pilots?

The american squadrons have an A2A skill avg of about 66...with most of their pilots above 50/70

The brits are somehow weaker, having an avg of 55/60 in a2a but with many good pilots well above 50/70.

The last battles have strongly raised their overall experience.

[jeffk3510]

GreyJoy- I meant in your reserve pool.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's a pretty strong deployment, good supplies, and good forts. You've done well. Your opponent has been negligent in giving you time to prepare such defenses. He should have never let up.

A few things:

1) A level nine airfield with 250 aviation support can handle unlimited aircraft. (IE, the 250 aviation support is sufficient no matter how many aircraft you have.) You have more aviaton support that you need. I'm not sure you want to take the chance on evacuating the excess to Aden, but at least think the option through.

2) Why is fuel so important to you? You have way more than you need and won't need more for a long time. Don't send any more tankers to Karachi until you've won the battle.

3) Jodpur is an interesting position. Ordinarly, you'd have to abandon it as soon as rader crossed the line, but you have good forts and it's in the desert, so I doubt he can afford to bypass it - I don't think his units would draw any supply. And yet, you can't afford to allow your garrison to get isolated. So, if he crosses the line, what will you do with your Jodpur garrison?

4) He might elect to come down the river valley from Lahore rather than crossing the desert.

5) Unless he brings a suprisingly weak force, which would be the height of folly on his part, you won't be able to stand and fight at Hyderabad, Jodpur or anywhere short of Karachi. Do not have troops prepping for Jodpur, Hyderabad, etc. You can't hold those bases against a full assault, nor can you afford to have the garrisons isolated or destroyed. If he comes, you'll have to pull back everywhere, so prepping for anyplace but Karachi is a waste and will weaken you final fortress. All of your troops should be prepping for Karachi.

5) With 5,000+ AV, seven forts (or eight or nine by then), Karachi will be a bear of titanic proportions if you can keep it supplied.

Your opponent should be flogged for standing down at the critical moment in the game.

I want to keep my base forces cause every one of them has a flak that i badly need! Plus i don't see any advantage of evacuate them right now.

Fuel hasn't been shipped to Karachi since march...i stop sending TKs cause they were too valuable. That fuel remained there when we upgraded to the beta patch cause i considered useless to let it be shipped to Bombay that was doomed...

My plan is to hold Jodpur as long as i can but, as soon as i see that the position is unholdable, i'll be moving away. Actually he cannot think to march through the desert to Hyderabad cause there's only a trail there, while the rr won't be open for him untill i hold Hyderabad.
If he comes for Jodpur he'll lose time...and i need not more than a week to bring my 5 divisions from Aden to Karachi...the RN is ready to come down and fight if he sends the combined fleet...Karachi has lots of bombers and torpedo bombers that can keep his sctfs at bay and my CVs will be there too...he will need the KB if he wants to stop the flow from Aden...BUT, if i see the KB there, i'll pack up everything at PH and invade the Bonins with 3000 AVs, no matter the cost!

Yes, all my units are prepping for Karachi but i don't think he can smash my positions at Hyderabad so easily...my tank army is growing stronger every day and 1000 AVs composed of tanks (with Stuarts and Vikers heavy tanks) can give some headhaces to his flanks...
I say that everything will be determined in the air. If he doesn't have a complete controll of the skies he's not going to be a walk in the park for him...while if he can count on his bombers that open the way for his advancing coloums...well, at that point my only option will be to dig in Karachi and wait...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

GreyJoy- I meant in your reserve pool.

American pools are full of pilots with 40/70 exp/air skill...while the brits have a limited reserve of 50/60 fighter pilots

[Canoerebel]

[left]GreyJoy, if the KB isn't in the Arabian Sea to impose an absolute blockade on Karachi, I don't think rader will cross the LOD.  You may be close to victory here, and the more "stout" he sees your defenses, the less likely his is to invade.  So maintaining your air battle is the right decision.[/left][left] [/left][left]I think rader has made a tremendous blunder. He definately should have gone for the knockout punch immediately - he had you staggering from repeated blows.  But he's missed his chance (assuming the KB is in the Pacific as you believe).[/left][left] [/left][left]You are not going to be the first Allied PBEM player to lose Karachi.  If rader maintains a strong defensive line, you won't be able to counterattack for awhile (probably until late summer or autumn), but start thinking about how you're going to do it when the time comes.[/left]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[left]GreyJoy, if the KB isn't in the Arabian Sea to impose an absolute blockade on Karachi, I don't think rader will cross the LOD.  You may be close to victory here, and the more "stout" he sees your defenses, the less likely his is to invade.  So maintaining your air battle is the right decision.[/left][left] [/left][left]I think rader has made a tremendous blunder. He definately should have gone for the knockout punch immediately - he had you staggering from repeated blows.  But he's missed his chance (assuming the KB is in the Pacific as you believe).[/left][left] [/left][left]You are not going to be the first Allied PBEM player to lose Karachi.  If rader maintains a strong defensive line, you won't be able to counterattack for awhile (probably until late summer or autumn), but start thinking about how you're going to do it when the time comes.[/left]

July 1st and 2nd 1942

Another quiet turn in India.
His air forces didn't attack not even in the last 2 days, so it's been now 4 days in a row without any air attack.
I tried to bomb Bahunaghar, hoping to find less fighters present cause i thought, after the last two days of resting, that Rader was going to attack today. Unfortunately i was mistaken. Bahunagar has now 42 units of which, i bet, most of them are AA...my B-17s flying at 21,000 ft were annihilated by the flak...lost 14 of them[X(]...now i'll need to stop these raids for a while...they're becoming useless with that amount of AA Rader has brought...i'm particularly astonished by the cieling of his guns cause i thought Japan had really very few units capable of firing above 20.000...i was mistaken, as always[:o]

The weekly convoy full of supplies (22k) has arrived unmolested at Karachi and has already left. The presence of the Eastern Fleet at Karachi makes the unloading operations very very fast!!!!
A British Bde of 114 strenght has arrived today at Karachi. Another important unit for my defence.

I'm reorganizing my forces in the pacific...it's a pretty tough task cause the aborted Marshalls operation has now to be translated in a re-deployment of forces that were meant to be somewhere else...


CR, don't know what to think about India. For sure if he keeps on pounding my air army will struggle and will be defeated in the end...but i think i can hold on for some more weeks not for an unlimited time...but these more weeks can be decisive.
My forces are in good shape i'd say. The indian units battered during the first weeks on operations in southern India have now refilled their ranks and their morale and exp is getting higher every day.
At the same time i'm recieving new toys like the Lee tanks that will replace the vickers tankette and the misc armoured vehicles that equipped most of my tank units.
If he decides to cross the LOD i really don't know what will happen but i'm pretty sure i can oppose him a decent defence on the ground.

What about the KB? Well, after i retreated my TFs from the Gilberts my subs havent' spotted any more kates or Vals...it doesn't mean anything sure but i think the presence of the KB in the pacific is something we can be 90% sure about.

Now in India i want to use at best the large aviation support i have at my bases. Will move my fighters en masse every turn, jumping from one base to another (we are talking about a mass force of 530 fighters) so he will never be sure about where i'm basing my defences. I'm pretty sure he cannot close any of my airfields so leaving an AF almost undefended for one day won't be a problem.

The other good note of the days is the slaughter of enemy subs in front of Karachi. I decided to move all my medium bombers on ASW/Naval search missions. We're talking about something like 300 bombers closing on a 3 hexes range in front of Karachi...at least 10 subs have been reported hit several times during the last 2 days...he'll be forced to move them back very soon![8D]

[GreyJoy]

Thinking about it...probably the best way to force him to keep the KB in the pacific is to keep on applying pressure on his perimeter. Even if this will cost me something...if this is the cost to make India live...well, it will be worth it!

[GreyJoy]

Just to give you an idea of this new phase of air ASW at Karachi, i'll post the operational report, cutting the lines we don't need...
 
OPERATIONAL REPORT FOR Jul 01, 42
SS I-122 is reported HIT
a Type KD3A/B class SS is reported HIT
SS I-18 is reported HIT
SS I-18 is reported HIT
a Type KD3A/B class SS is reported HIT
a Japanese PT is reported HIT
SS I-122 is reported HIT
SS I-123 is reported HIT
SS I-123 is reported HIT
a Japanese SS is reported HIT
a Type L4 class SS is reported HIT
SS I-171 is reported HIT
a Japanese SS is reported HIT
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OPERATIONAL REPORT FOR Jul 02,03 42...all near Karachi

SS I-21 is reported HIT
a Japanese SS is reported HIT
a Type C1 class SS is reported HIT
SS I-122 is reported HIT
a Japanese SS is reported HIT
SS I-123 is reported HIT
a Type A1 class SS is reported HIT
SS I-154 is reported HIT
SS I-18 is reported HIT
SS I-18 is reported HIT
SS I-154 is reported HIT

[String]

The Japanese 75mm AA gun has a ceiling of 25000 feet and the 10cm one has a ceiling of 31000 feet. Majority of the Japanese AA units have the 75mm guns.

edit: btw I just checked and realised that the 10cm and 12cm Japanese flak pieces are far superior to anything that the allies can ever field. The best allied AA gun is the US 90mm gun, which has an effect of 23, ceiling of 33800 ft and accuracy of 46, compared to 34/45 effect, 31000/39370 ft ceiling and 54/55 accuracy of the 10cm/12cm japanese guns. Iiinteresting...

Luckily the 75mm one is nothing stellar.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: String

The Japanese 75mm AA gun has a ceiling of 25000 feet and the 10cm one has a ceiling of 31000 feet. Majority of the Japanese AA units have the 75mm guns.

edit: btw I just checked and realised that the 10cm and 12cm Japanese flak pieces are far superior to anything that the allies can ever field. The best allied AA gun is the US 90mm gun, which has an effect of 23, ceiling of 33800 ft and accuracy of 46, compared to 34/45 effect, 31000/39370 ft ceiling and 54/55 accuracy of the 10cm/12cm japanese guns. Iiinteresting...

Luckily the 75mm one is nothing stellar.

Thanks String.
So it's a myth that japanese AA sucks. British AA so far has been almost useless, despite having 3.7mkII in good numbers. Japanese AA, considering also that they're put togheder in a great concentration, has been devastating for my 4Es, even above 20k feet...

But again...Rader cannot have this concentration of flak everywhere. If he'll bring his AA units witjh his troops during the advance crossing the LOD, will mean that fewer AA will be based at his AFs...so raids will become an option again