OT - The New Coronavirus

[wesy]

I live in the SF Bay Area (Northern California) we've been in "shelter in place" for the past week. The Governer ordered shelter in place across the entire state last night. I imagine this will take place across the country over the next week or two. We'll see.

[PipFromSlitherine]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Plasma from people who have recovered is a cure.

Not really. It still has to be processed and correctly administered to the patient (usually via drip). It's also very hard to store. It's a very useful tool in research but it is not a practical solution.

Cheers

Pip

[TulliusDetritus]

Feel free to ignore WHO's Dr. Bruce Aylward and the head of a visiting Chinese Red Cross delegation helping Italy.

[Red2112]

Aside from what the virus might do, we have another big problem were numbers are real, and that´s the economy and what will happen in the long run. The debt of society...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWhk90ktKtg

[Red2112]

Event 201, just before the pandemic (Nov.2019)...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

Makes on think whats going on!

--

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: PipFromSlitherine

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Plasma from people who have recovered is a cure.

Not really. It still has to be processed and correctly administered to the patient (usually via drip). It's also very hard to store. It's a very useful tool in research but it is not a practical solution.

Cheers

Pip

I did not state that it was easy.

I have also been in a hospital for 17 days getting 7 to 9 IVs a day with the last few days in isolation since the doctors did not know what was wrong. Some of the drugs I was given could not mix, either. One half litre to one litre IVs plus litres of H2O consumed meant that one more than one occasion I pissed out more than one litre at a time.

Then I was in a nursing home for over 16 months and I could still no live on my own so I went to assisted living.

If all it were to take was ONE IV drip to make a drastic turnaround compared to what I went through, I would call it easy.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Zovs

Sorry but Bob's numbers do not line up with what the 'experts' are saying. His math formals are faulty and incorrect per the experts.

Per the 'experts':

[*]The COVID-19 death rate — the number of known deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases — varies widely by country right now.
[*]In Italy, as of Tuesday, it was about 8%, while in the US it was 1.7%.
[*]Worldwide, more than 212,000 people have been infected with the new coronavirus, and at least 8,700 people have died.
[*]Generally, the death rate seems to decrease as more people are tested and cases are confirmed.

The worst areas are: Italy (7.94%), Iran (6.11%), Spain (4.5%), and China (3.98%).

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ses-2020-3

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext

Be sure to keep "experts" in quotes! Anybody hawking the above garbage is no true expert.

If you obtain the death rate via dividing deaths by total cases, you are effectively counting all unresolved cases as recovered - that NONE will result in deaths. I child could see that that is baloney.

And, yes, I sat and watched newscasters post those very figures on TV yesterday. Think how wrong the figure for the US is: We have thousands of cases, but only a few hundred that have been resolved!

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Lobster

...

Bob used two data points. Same data points that people who are more qualified than anyone on this board. If you want to use different data points fine. Not my call. But when people call someone wrong because of the factual data points they use and continue down that line then I have to question their motives.
...

There are two problems with his 'data' points and how he combines them. First, the infected N is too low, we know this not least as (for eg) the UK stopped proper testing unless you were admitted to hospital. So going back to my table above, we only have the ratio between disease+hospital admission and outcome.

Second, lets make the heroic assumption that his data is correct and complete. We know/strongly fear, that this thing is going to infect most people - hence all the various states trying to delay this so as to keep some functioning society as it works through the population. His numbers can only be applied to that near complete population group if (and only if) the sample of infected is typical of the wider population. Its not. Which is why statisticians then apply all sorts of moderating factors to come up with estimates using the data from the sample (and that is what he has) to the full population.

Ignoring this expertise and process is pretty obtuse.

Don't even bother. The only official figures you can rely on are those monitored. We all know there are thousands and thousands that have the virus and are undetected. Monitored cases are the only ones that anyone can rely on. Regardless of how many suppositions, theories, educated guesses and models based on those things they are just that, educated guesses.

Thank you, Jack. Yes, Loki's figures are exactly that: Glorified guesses. They can't be arrived at without speculating about unknowns.

[Curtis Lemay]

Today's figures:
Total Cases: 255729
Total Recovered: 89918
Total Deaths: 10495
(Wikipedia)

Death Rate: 10495 / (10495 + 89918) = 10.5%

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Zovs

Per the 'experts':

[*]The COVID-19 death rate — the number of known deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases

Be sure to keep "experts" in quotes! Anybody hawking the above garbage is no true expert.

If you obtain the death rate via dividing deaths by total cases, you are effectively counting all unresolved cases as recovered - that NONE will result in deaths. I child could see that that is baloney.

warspite1

+1

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's figures:
Total Cases: 255729
Total Recovered: 89918
Total Deaths: 10495
(Wikipedia)

Death Rate: 10495 / (10495 + 89918) = 10.5%

warspite1

But then sadly, equal amounts of garbage is produced

[TulliusDetritus]

Our cardiologist contributor (Franciscus, he knows how hospitals work) already told us that the mortality rate is sort of missing the point.

The scary point is NO HEALTHCARE SYSTEM in the world can absorb the really sick cases if you don't stop the virus from infecting right and left.

NOT A SINGLE ONE

[rico21]

I am dismayed, stunned by the fact that no one in the world knows if being infected by several people is more dangerous than by one.
The answer to this question is the key to our survival and no study is launched.
I therefore launch this appeal to the real experts, the false knowledgeable, the backbiters, the disbelievers, the deviants ...
Find the answer, your survival depends on it.

[*Lava*]

Jeez... you folks are crazy.

There are existing anti-viral drugs such as chloroquine which have been shown to be effective in treating the virus (for quite some time in fact).

Existing anti-viral drugs (which have already been tested for safety) have not been released because the FDA has not had a chance to do long term studies on its effectiveness. Tests are on-going.

Yesterday the US administration woke up and stated that anyone who wants to be treated with these "experimental" drugs (remember the FDA has not finished any long term studies on effectiveness) will be allowed to do so.

I submit that we will see a turnaround quite soon.

Bye the bye... I read that there was a study done in which a small area was saturated with tamiflu to see if it would have any effect on the spread of the disease. The result was that the flu was stopped stone cold.

The first step in any such appearance of a new, potentially deadly virus is to develop a rapid test. The next is to try existing anti-viral drugs for effectiveness. The long range strategy is to develop a vaccine, however, we must remember that vaccines aren't always 100% effective. So testing and treatment, becomes job number 1.

Why it has taken so long to deal with this virus, I have not a clue. Perhaps we as a society should adopt the Japanese social pact in which individuals who as sick, "politely" wear masks. Personally, I'm getting pretty fucking tired of folks sneezing their flu all over me... because they can.

We all need to learn from this experience. Whether we will or not is doubtful.

[*Lava*]

Read this: Coronavirus in Washington state: Patient says Ebola drug saved his life

There are effective anti-virals out there and they will soon be thrown at the virus en masse. Folks need to chill.

[rico21]

ORIGINAL: rico21


I therefore launch this appeal to the real experts, the false knowledgeable, the backbiters, the disbelievers, the deviants ...

..the Mickey mouses, the Donalds...[:D]

[Zorch]

Science News has an article about 'Why some heart patients may be especially vulnerable to COVID-19'
People with hypertension and cardiovascular disease risk severe bouts of the disease

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... vulnerable

[Franciscus]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Our cardiologist contributor (Franciscus, he knows how hospitals work) already told us that the mortality rate is sort of missing the point.

The scary point is NO HEALTHCARE SYSTEM in the world can absorb the really sick cases if you don't stop the virus from infecting right and left.

NOT A SINGLE ONE

I can’t stress this enough !!
What is happening in Italy is a first-world healthcare system overloaded with too much critically ill patients in a short period of time.

The tragedy is compounded by the fact that many of the critically ill covid patients die for lack of resources, but the mortality of the other critically ill patients (with other diseases like heart attacks, strokes, bacterial pneumonia, accident victims, etc) will also increase dramatically because the healthcare system has collapsed.

It is a tragedy that will change our world

[UP844]

+1

[Lobster]

WHO situation report 20 March:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... d2bb4f1f_2