The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

What about a massive landing here?

i can mass nearly 5000 AVs (using also the Sadogashima garrison)...preparation would not been perfect but i can support it with a massive naval and air bombing....

[GreyJoy]

In the meanwhile i was able to assemble my CV/CVE TF... we have 6 operative CVs and 23 CVEs, operating in 3 different TFs behind the Paramushiro Jiima line...so screened by a LBA force of 250 DBs and 130 fighters.
The same striking LBA force is doubled at Attu and Shemewahetever island (in the Aleutinas), while 25 subs are screening the waters in front of these two points where my convoys have to pass through in order to move from the Aleutinas to the Kuriles.
 
Since the debacle of operation Dust n Bones we managed to move to Hokkaido 2,000,000 more supplies and 600,000 fuel...

[Canoerebel]

Can you afford a fourth stymied beachhead on Honshu? If not, don't do it (unless you're having one of those Clint Eastwood "Go ahead, make my day" moments and just have to).

Why wouldn't rader be expecting a landing right under the nose of Sadagoshima? Why wouldn't he be able to rail in reinforcements to stop you on the beach again?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Can you afford a fourth stymied beachhead on Honshu? If not, don't do it (unless you're having one of those Clint Eastwood "Go ahead, make my day" moments and just have to).

Why wouldn't rader be expecting a landing right under the nose of Sadagoshima? Why wouldn't he be able to rail in reinforcements to stop you on the beach again?

Simply because he has already 430,000 men at Hachinoe, 350,000 more at Aikita and more 240,000 between Ominato and Aomori... 180,000 more are based in the Sendai area... how much more ready reinforcements can he have to spare?!?!!?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Can you afford a fourth stymied beachhead on Honshu? If not, don't do it (unless you're having one of those Clint Eastwood "Go ahead, make my day" moments and just have to).

Why wouldn't rader be expecting a landing right under the nose of Sadagoshima? Why wouldn't he be able to rail in reinforcements to stop you on the beach again?

And, above all, i need to..i want to break his lines somewhere...can't be that i am simply forced to wait untill the soviets come online to do something...

[ParaB]

Just wanted to mention that I've been following this epic AAR now for more than 2 months. It's one of the most entertaining things I've ever read about a game on the net. The suspense! The drama! The insanity!

[:D]

Keep up the great work, Greyjoy.

[&o]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: ParaB

Just wanted to mention that I've been following this epic AAR now for more than 2 months. It's one of the most entertaining things I've ever read about a game on the net. The suspense! The drama! The insanity!

[:D]

Keep up the great work, Greyjoy.

[&o]

Thanks you so much ParaB!
Glad you enjoy it!

Hope to keep up the interest untill the very end[8D]

[Canoerebel]

The answer to those "how many more men can he have" questions are always painful. The answer always turns out to be: Plenty. That base is an obvious target with the proximity to Sadoga and the terrain. Rader's even left it weakly garrisoned - something he wouldnt do unless (1) he truly is out of men or (2) he's creating a version of a "flak trap" for a ground campaign. I don't think there's any chance that option number one is the right one.

You have ten months until Russia enters the war. There's a ton of fighting to be done until then. But don't further fragment and isolated your last mobile fighting force right now. Not until your sure - or at least as sure as possible.

By the way, have you taken that last IJ outpost in the Kuriles yet?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

What about a massive landing here?

Based upon the image you're showing, he's got a lot of ship movement between Fusan and Sagoshima / Hiroshima / S. N. Kyushu / Korea. My guess is that's how he's bringing in his oil, fuel and resources. Your Hokkaido operations have (obviously) interdicted resource and oil movement from N. Japan, so this is his remaining lifeline.

How heavily defended are Oki Shoto and / or Ulleungdo? Could these be inexpensively atttained and built up to challenge daily resource, oil and (possibly) LCUs movements across the Tsushima straits? I imagine some DBs and PTs based there would be a real pain in his neck. AND it would cut off the sea of Japan as a backwater for his navy.

Combined with a capture of Okinawa, Luzon or Formosa, this could another way of crimping import of his war material.

Oh-and I agree with Kayak Johnie: he's got more LCUs than you do for this theatre. You won't outnumber him on land if he can help it.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The answer to those "how many more men can he have" questions are always painful. The answer always turns out to be: Plenty. That base is an obvious target with the proximity to Sadoga and the terrain. Rader's even left it weakly garrisoned - something he wouldnt do unless (1) he truly is out of men or (2) he's creating a version of a "flak trap" for a ground campaign. I don't think there's any chance that option number one is the right one.

You have ten months until Russia enters the war. There's a ton of fighting to be done until then. But don't further fragment and isolated your last mobile fighting force right now. Not until your sure - or at least as sure as possible.

By the way, have you taken that last IJ outpost in the Kuriles yet?

not yet... will keep it suppressed for the moment...but i'm planning to do it in the next month using a couple of Canadian Bdes that should easily overcome the so called garrison...

CR... ok, but he cannot rail in the troops he has in northern Honshu...those bastards have to move out of the contested hexes first...
Secondly...mmmm...well, there's always the other option of reinforce one of my beachheads (say Aikita for example) and create a massive combat force of 12k AVs and finally try a breakthrough...

Third...which other option i have?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

What about a massive landing here?

Based upon the image you're showing, he's got a lot of ship movement between Fusan and Sagoshima / Hiroshima / S. N. Kyushu / Korea. My guess is that's how he's bringing in his oil, fuel and resources. Your Hokkaido operations have (obviously) interdicted resource and oil movement from N. Japan, so this is his remaining lifeline.

How heavily defended are Oki Shoto and / or Ulleungdo? Could these be inexpensively atttained and built up to challenge daily resource, oil and (possibly) LCUs movements across the Tsushima straits? I imagine some DBs and PTs based there would be a real pain in his neck. AND it would cut off the sea of Japan as a backwater for his navy.

Combined with a capture of Okinawa, Luzon or Formosa, this could another way of crimping import of his war material.

Chickenboy...yes, he's moving lots of stuff in the Tsushima strait but how am i supposed to invade anything outside my LBA umbrella without a decent CV force? His KB will eat alive anything that moves out of my LBA CAP and Okinawa, Luzon etc are simply too far away...
The Hokkaido adventure is clearly showing its weaknesses...the life-line of japan remains well open and, without my CVs, i'm forced to hit his defences frontally...

And am really scared about the KI-201 coming inline in 2 months...have you ever tested it? Is it that good?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
And am really scared about the KI-201 coming inline in 2 months...have you ever tested it? Is it that good?

Hi GreyJoy,

I've played around with it a bit in a furtive exploration of the "Downfall" scenario, but nothing significant. You'll be a real test subject for it for all of us JFBs. [;)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
how am i supposed to invade anything outside my LBA umbrella without a decent CV force? His KB will eat alive anything that moves out of my LBA CAP

How large a force would you need to capture either of these locations? If small to moderate sized, could you not LRCAP it from Sagoshima? Maybe a feinted invasion to CAP trap beforehand?

Taking one (or both) of these islands would have the benefit of obviating his ability to bring in additional land forces to the fight. He couldn't without fear of naval or air interdiction.

[Canoerebel]

Take that 3,000 extra AV (not the stuff you have at Sadogashima) and sneak it across the map (be careful lest you bump into enemy subs that spoil the surprise).  Use this force to waltz right into the DEI.  If rader isn't paying attention, penetrate into his interior lines there and hit the Celebes or Ambon or the Borneo Coast.  If he is paying attention, grab some really good (and proximate to each other) islands around Sumatra or Java. Don't use any carriers - or just a few CVE at most - and count on surprise.  If it fails and you lose the force, big deal.  If you succeed, suddenly you can hit his oil and fuel.  Hopefully, you can stress him on that end of things.  If so, he'll have to diver aircraft down that way, which will help you in Japan.  If it doesn't hurt him, no harm done.  You can just run amock down there, which will feel good.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
And am really scared about the KI-201 coming inline in 2 months...have you ever tested it? Is it that good?

Hi GreyJoy,

I've played around with it a bit in a furtive exploration of the "Downfall" scenario, but nothing significant. You'll be a real test subject for it for all of us JFBs. [;)]

ahahahah [:D]don't know if i like the idea of being a white mouse [:D]

Anyway, so far the 4th generation fighters of japanese industry are very good.
The best one is surely the KI-83, followed by the Frank-r and only third the Shidens. SAM is a very good fighter also and can easily tangle with the Spitfire Mk. VIII and with the corsairs being very very manouvrable.

The KI-83 and the Frank-R are clearly better because of their ability to fly easily at 38,000 feet and so covering the altitude where it used to dominate the P-47s

[FatR]

As Chickenboy said, your third option is to try getting closer to Japan's lifeline, if it is possible. Also, concentration on bombing his aircraft factories. If you haven't upgraded to the latest beta yet, Allied night bombing should be practically unstoppable at this moment, if you did, well, once Sadogashima is impregnably fortified, over half of Japanese aircraft industry will be reachable by even most short-legged Allied fighters, so you still can do it with proper focus.

[GreyJoy]

We have stopped night bombing completely cause we are not happy with the results we're seeing (even with the latest beta nigth bombing is really overpowered).
Daylight bombing is an option...but i simply cannot efford to lose 200 planes each turn (2days-turn remember). His Franks, KI-83s, Shidens, Georges and SAMs are eating alive my escort and are running havoc among my B-29/B-24s.... a bombing campaign using 2E bombers is simply out of question cause they will get murdered in less than a week.
Rader has 2000 fighters around Tokyo, more 2000 around Kobe and more 1000 near Sasebo...i will do my best to shut down the KI.201 production but this will cost me lots of planes...probably too many...and he can easily repair those factories while i still produce ONLY 30 B-29s each month...
Just to be clear...as you remember i had completely destroyed the KI-83 production during the early summer offensive... ok now Rader is back producing more than 280 KI-83 each month and the numbers are still rising....[X(]

[vettim89]

Considering this is scenario 2, you are unlikely to be able to cripple the Japanese economy at this point. Rader has most likely pooled enough HI for the duration. He likely has turned off all his Merchant Shipyards. He may have stopped most of his combat ship building. So, even if you were to completely shut off his oil/fuel pipeline, it would not stop him from building more aircraft which at this point in time is all he really needs. Ergo, I would continue the Strat Bombing of his aircraft factories.

I have heard the definition of insanity is repeating the same evolution over and over again expecting different results. I don't think a fourth invasion of Honshu is going to work any better than the first three. The only thing I can see working is to concentrate all you force on one of the already occupied bases. It is possible that you may be able to spook Rader if one of those bases looks like it is going to fall forcing him to abandon Ominato. Not likely, but it is your best bet in my mind.

Of the bases currently occupied, which one has the best AS ratio for you? Have you thought about carpet bombing one of them with a max effort? IF Rader complains, ask him if he has ever heard of the Falais Pocket

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Considering this is scenario 2, you are unlikely to be able to cripple the Japanese economy at this point. Rader has most likely pooled enough HI for the duration. He likely has turned off all his Merchant Shipyards. He may have stopped most of his combat ship building. So, even if you were to completely shut off his oil/fuel pipeline, it would not stop him from building more aircraft which at this point in time is all he really needs. Ergo, I would continue the Strat Bombing of his aircraft factories.

I have heard the definition of insanity is repeating the same evolution over and over again expecting different results. I don't think a fourth invasion of Honshu is going to work any better than the first three. The only thing I can see working is to concentrate all you force on one of the already occupied bases. It is possible that you may be able to spook Rader if one of those bases looks like it is going to fall forcing him to abandon Ominato. Not likely, but it is your best bet in my mind.

Of the bases currently occupied, which one has the best AS ratio for you? Have you thought about carpet bombing one of them with a max effort? IF Rader complains, ask him if he has ever heard of the Falais Pocket

With 7+ forts and 20/25 AA units in each base the carpet bombing simply doesn't work.
last time (2 weeks ago) i tried to ground bomb him at Hachinoe it ended up with 883 casualities for japan and 65 4Es destroyed by Flak in a single turn[X(]
Flak concentration is the best 4E killer of the game.

Hachinoe probably is the best AV i have...6300 AVs with a lot of tank units...

mmm...will do some tests...

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Considering this is scenario 2, you are unlikely to be able to cripple the Japanese economy at this point. Rader has most likely pooled enough HI for the duration. He likely has turned off all his Merchant Shipyards. He may have stopped most of his combat ship building. So, even if you were to completely shut off his oil/fuel pipeline, it would not stop him from building more aircraft which at this point in time is all he really needs. Ergo, I would continue the Strat Bombing of his aircraft factories.

I have heard the definition of insanity is repeating the same evolution over and over again expecting different results. I don't think a fourth invasion of Honshu is going to work any better than the first three. The only thing I can see working is to concentrate all you force on one of the already occupied bases. It is possible that you may be able to spook Rader if one of those bases looks like it is going to fall forcing him to abandon Ominato. Not likely, but it is your best bet in my mind.

Of the bases currently occupied, which one has the best AS ratio for you? Have you thought about carpet bombing one of them with a max effort? IF Rader complains, ask him if he has ever heard of the Falais Pocket

With 7+ forts and 20/25 AA units in each base the carpet bombing simply doesn't work.
last time (2 weeks ago) i tried to ground bomb him at Hachinoe it ended up with 883 casualities for japan and 65 4Es destroyed by Flak in a single turn[X(]
Flak concentration is the best 4E killer of the game.

Hachinoe probably is the best AV i have...6300 AVs with a lot of tank units...

mmm...will do some tests...

GreyJoy,

What Vettim and others are asking for isn't tactical bombing of his LCUs with your heavy bombers, but a long-term and concerted effort against his strategic production (aircraft, engines) sites. If he's got 75 AAA units on your three bridgeheads, that's good news for your strat. bombing campaign! He must be stripping these from somewhere-likely his more distant cities (S. Honshu, Kyushu). These cities and their industries should be flattened.