The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Spent a bit of time going back through combat reports to try to piece together damage done to Japanese flattops on the first three days of battle:

1. CV Kaga: hit hard on 9/20 with 3TT and bombs and confirmed sunk after three more TT on 9/21.
2. CV Zuikaku: hit by 3B/1T with a fuel storage explosion; on 9/20 she is escorted only by DD Ushio and is hit by 4B, again showing HF/HD with ammo storage explosion. Later in the day, Allied strike aircraft target DD Ushio herself. Conclusion: Zuikaku sunk.
3. CV Hiryu: hit by 2B on 9/20 with fuel and ammo storage explosions showing heavy fires. Hiryu not sighted on the 21st. Conclusion: heavy damage but escaped.
4. CV Hiyo: 2B/1TT heavy fires and fuel storage explosion on 9/20. Not seen on the 21st. Conclusion: probably got away.
5. CV Shokaku: 1B plus fuel storage explosion and heavy fires on 9/20; part of the large carrier TF that made separation on 9/21 and 9/22.
6. CV Akagi: 1B on fire on 9/20; detached with two CAs and two DDs as escorts on 9/21 (my guess is that she was out of fuel and that they were there to provide protection and fuel); hit once in surface combat with DD TF and 7 times in combat with CA/CL/DD TF. Hit by 1k-pounder from SBD later in the day; not seen on the 22nd. Conclusion: she got away, darn it.
7. CV Soryu: No hits. Part of large escape TF.
8. CV Renkaku: one shell hit, no meaningful damage. Part of large escape TF.
9. CV TAikaku: three shell hits, probably minor damage. Part of large escape TF.
10. CVL Nisshin: 9/20, 4B HF/HD; not seen on 21st. Conclusion: sunk.
11. CVL Chitose: 9/20, shell hit, on fire; 1B on fire; 9/21 with one DD escort, 1B, on fire, heavy damage, dead in water; another bomb with same reports; and yet another with same reports; and a fourth, and a fifth, and a sixth, and a seventh, and an eight. Not seen on 9/22. Conclusion: sunk.
12. CVL Chiyoda: 9/21, 8B, HF/HD. Conclusion: sunk.
13. CVL Mizuho: 9/20, 1B on fire; 9/21, 7B, ammo and fuel storage explosions, heavy fires, heavy damage. Conclusion: sunk.

Given these reports:
Sunk: CVs Kaga and Zukaku; CVLs Mizuho, Chiyoda, Chitose, Nisshin; CVE: eight. Total sunk from 9/20 through 9/22: 14
Heavy Damage: CV Hiryu
Some Damage: CVs Shokaku, Akagi; Hiyo
Little or no damage: CVs Soryu, Renkaku, Taikaku, CVLs Ryujo, Ryuho, Shoho

I hope this analysis isn't like Pinkerton agents during the Civil War.

[Canoerebel]

For surface combatants, ships destroyed or heavily damaged:

Confirmed sunk: 1 CL; 8 DD
Heavy F/Heavy D: 6 DD
HF or HD: 1 CL; 1 CB; 3 DD

Allied combat ship damage:
Sunk: BB Nevada; two DD
Moderate Damage: BB Massachusetts; CL St. Louis
Light/Moderate Damage: CVs Enterprise and Hornet, CA Salt Lake City
Light Damage but yard time: quite a few CA, CL and DD (mainly SYS damage incurred in surface combat against ships protecting enemy carriers - for example, this segment of combat report:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Wake Island at 142,95, Range 29,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CVL Mizuho, Shell hits 2, on fire
CVL Chiyoda, Shell hits 1
CB Kawachi, Shell hits 2
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CL Oyodo, Shell hits 1
CL Noshiro, Shell hits 3
CL Yahagi, Shell hits 8, on fire
DD Wakazuki
DD Yoizuki
DD Haruzuki
DD Natsuzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Suzunami, Shell hits 1
DD Amatsukaze, heavy damage
DD Yudachi
DD Sagiri
DD Asahikari
DD Nishikaze, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hikugumo, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 5, on fire
CA Salt Lake City, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
CA Baltimore, Shell hits 2
CLAA Juneau, Shell hits 4, on fire
CL Montpelier, Shell hits 2
DD Ammen, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Anthony
DD Beale, Shell hits 1
DD Bennett
DD Bush
DD Converse, Shell hits 2
DD Conway
DD Pringle, Shell hits 1, heavy fires
DMS Southard

This was the USN TF's fourth or fifth surface combat clash that phase, so she was low on ammo and ops points. CA Salt Lake City, the most heavily damaged ship, has 29 SYS/28 Flood/4 Engine. Of that number, 11 of the flood is the only major damage.

[Canoerebel]

Disregard double post.

[BBfanboy]

Thanks for the summary. Definitely a nice haul!

I am a little more optimistic that Hiryu and Hiyo sank. Those two have been quite fragile in my games, needing only about five bombs to sink them.

Since a fuel storage explosion does about the same damage as 2 x 1000 lb bombs and an ammo storage explosion does about as much as three x 1000 lb bombs, Hiryu took the equivalent of seven bombs and should be sunk.

Hiyo may have limped away but IJN carriers have trouble coping with both fire and flood damage together, so I say 60% on her being sunk.

[JohnDillworth]

The KB is not dead but considerably diminished. The big change for John is that now the KB has to hide. The minute it shows up on the radar Dan can go into "Turkey Trots To Water" mode because the deathstar will always be much bigger

[ny59giants]

Remember this is the old RA on steroids. Japan gets the 6 Unryu Class CV which are not present here. Plus, 3 or 4 of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs which had 2 damaged here. John will be without CVEs and CVLs for the rest of the game, but he will still have a pretty stout KB with just the CVs once they are repaired and others finish building.

I wonder if John's CV TF composition was greatly influenced by his decision to use the 4 Kongo's earlier to bombard in the Marshall. They were not with KB, so maybe he decided to go with such large TFs while Dan was able to keep his better balanced. As Allies, I do tend to go with 8 DDs, 4 CA/CLAAs, and steadily increase the number of CVs and CVLs like Dan has done.

Has anybody found it better to have CV TF leaders that have lower than 60 aggressive to minimize their willingness to react towards enemy CVs? Would it be better to find those with good Air and Naval skills than the high aggressive skills?

[poodlebrain]

You did significant damage to CB Kawachi on the afternoon of Sept. 20. "CB Kawachi, Bomb hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, on fire". Lost sight of her after that.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Remember this is the old RA on steroids. Japan gets the 6 Unryu Class CV which are not present here. Plus, 3 or 4 of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs which had 2 damaged here. John will be without CVEs and CVLs for the rest of the game, but he will still have a pretty stout KB with just the CVs once they are repaired and others finish building.

I wonder if John's CV TF composition was greatly influenced by his decision to use the 4 Kongo's earlier to bombard in the Marshall. They were not with KB, so maybe he decided to go with such large TFs while Dan was able to keep his better balanced. As Allies, I do tend to go with 8 DDs, 4 CA/CLAAs, and steadily increase the number of CVs and CVLs like Dan has done.

Has anybody found it better to have CV TF leaders that have lower than 60 aggressive to minimize their willingness to react towards enemy CVs? Would it be better to find those with good Air and Naval skills than the high aggressive skills?

What a wonderful turn of events then. KB is reduced but not eliminated and the dance continues. John will still be formidable with LBA cover.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Remember this is the old RA on steroids. Japan gets the 6 Unryu Class CV which are not present here. Plus, 3 or 4 of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs which had 2 damaged here. John will be without CVEs and CVLs for the rest of the game, but he will still have a pretty stout KB with just the CVs once they are repaired and others finish building.

I wonder if John's CV TF composition was greatly influenced by his decision to use the 4 Kongo's earlier to bombard in the Marshall. They were not with KB, so maybe he decided to go with such large TFs while Dan was able to keep his better balanced. As Allies, I do tend to go with 8 DDs, 4 CA/CLAAs, and steadily increase the number of CVs and CVLs like Dan has done.

Has anybody found it better to have CV TF leaders that have lower than 60 aggressive to minimize their willingness to react towards enemy CVs? Would it be better to find those with good Air and Naval skills than the high aggressive skills?

Interesting thoughts, Michael, thanks.

1. I think nearly every player agrees that we want to see and experience is a stronger Japan later in the game so that it remains more competitive and there is less reason for the IJ player to become disenchanted. And, by the same token, the one adjustment I think was called for in the game (at least this mod) was more parity in aircraft pools early ('41 and '42) so that the Japanese player could be effectively checked. My feelings were that the Allies were okay on the seas and on the ground, but the remarkable aircraft imbalance made it difficult for the Allies to offer battle. Now, I'm not sure that's the case with Stock and other mods (too long since I played them). But I survived early, almost made Sumatra work, and now that we're getting late into '43, I'm glad John has a lot more carriers coming. Michael has already posted a number of times that changes were made to the air OOB so that even this Mod isn't so imbalanced. So, perhaps my thoughts were limited to the smallest of situations and now even that has vanished into Mod history.

2. For recent readers, John (and many IJ players) using the Kongos as KB escorts. John detached them no later than February '43 to bombard Sabang nonstop into June. Kirishima even took a torp from a sub during one run. When KB moved into the Pacific in April or May '43, John kept the Kongos in Sumatra. You'll recall that my analysis (maybe Pinkerton-quality, but analysis nonetheless) was that he was very short on good capital ships to serve as escorts. So he grew accustomed to KB operating with a mishmash of capital ship escorts - many times my sightings showed KB with only CL and DD. Here he cobbled together a lot of capital ships, but the configurations were werid.

3. I know what you mean - reaction has always scared me to death (Miller will tell you why), so I used to use the "low aggression" commanders. But I didn't in this case. The CVs got very high-rated commanders, including aggression. I had the CVs set to follow a combat TF that had one slow BB embedded. Reaction didn't prove a problem, possibly because Steroid KB ended up eight hexes distant (but Mini KB was considerably closer). From that, I'll likely continue to use this configuration. The "lesson learned" may have been a false one, though, as I may later get stung by reaction.

[Canoerebel]

9/23/43

Thin Man: The Naval Battle of Wake Island seems to be over, with both sides going separate ways. No clashes of any kind today. Most Allied carriers and combat ships are two days from Midway. Before they arrive, I'll detach a TF of damaged carriers to retire to Pearl for repair. I guess I'll also have to detach CV Victorious to return to San Francisco. She's due for withdrawl in less than three weeks. I hate to see her go. Over in the Marshalls, three Fletchers intercepted part of that troop convoy as she arrived at Roi-Namur, sinking a half dozen xAK, AKL, SC, etc. A fair number of squads were destroyed.

Recon keeps showing wildly inconstent troop levels in the Marshalls. Kwaj is reportedly way up but Roi way down. That would be weird - John would either reinforce both or withdraw from both. Wake is down again. So I'm not sure what's going on here.

Flying Trapeze: It looks like the Allies will be able to flip the ships in and out of Midway so that the invasion of Wake Island can proceed in short order. It probably will take the big ships one or two days to replenish sorties and ammo. But four slow BBs and two fast BBs have 100% main gun ammo, so the biggest concern isn't a concern. I've already offloaded a half dozen TBF and SBD squadrons to Midway to expedite replacement of aircraft. The carriers won't have 100% squadrons when they steam for Wake, but they'll probably be at 80-90 aircraft. Since KB can't intervene (unless I've misread things to a point that I would have to be cashiered) and since Wake is an isolated base with a level three airfield, that should be sufficient. The biggest threat will be subs, mines, and (possibly, but not likely) BBs if John chooses a "Charge of the Light Brigade" defense. Would he do that for Wake? Maybe. He's stinging a bit.

Circus/Carnival: Pretty quiet in NoPac, but (drat it) a sub stumbled across a massive troop TF outbound from Prince Rupert. So John will be on the alert for developments in NoPac. As for what's going on up here, I shall remain quite for awhile.

John III: John seems fine to me, which I expected but which wasn't necessrily guaranteed. As you gents have noted, Sudden Carrier Loss Syndrome is a pernicious foe.

So, where does he go from here? I think by necessity he becomes a fan of raiding. I think he'll use his combat ships to raid deep - Oz and NoPac are the two most likely targets. I probably have at least 10 days before he could put together such things, so I have to begin attending to interior defense or otherwise configure shipping so that he can't hit big, slow, vulnerable TFs deep inside my territory.

I'm not sure whether he'll use KB to keep me honest or to go raiding. At first he might lean towards the former. But as soon as Death Star is committed in length action somewhere, he might raid with KB (or detachments) elsewhere.

SigInt shows a regiment prepping for Tarawa. A few days back there was a similar report for Diego Garcia. There is a remote possibility that John might try amphibious ops in the Aluetians, Marshalls, Gilberts or elsewhere, but I don't think it's likely. He'd be exposing valuable ships too far forward. And I don't think any of these things gains him anything or costs me anything from a positional standpoint.

[Panther Bait]

Regarding the varying troop levels, could he be relaying troops via an air bridge from somewhere else? I know some of the cargo-float-planes based on the Emily used to at least be able to move troops great distances.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that could be it. But the picture I'm seeing is pretty confusing. I had LRCAP over Kwaj and combat TFs visiting there for weeks without any sign of reinfocement. But then the garrison suddenly shot up from 9k to 12k (this could have been by fast transport or the like during the craziness of the naval battle, which might have distracted me). And while Kwaj went up, Roi went down. And Wake did a little of both.

So I'm not getting a good picture of what might be going on or what trend there might be. It isn't a significant tactical or operational issue (except Wake) because I don't have any near-term plans in the Marshalls. I'm just trying to get a feel for what John's thinking: forward defense or rearward defense.

[paullus99]

It would seem that you should be able to get a lot more troops into the area than John can right now....

[Canoerebel]

Yes.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2. For recent readers, John (and many IJ players) using the Kongos as KB escorts. John detached them no later than February '43 to bombard Sabang nonstop into June. Kirishima even took a torp from a sub during one run. When KB moved into the Pacific in April or May '43, John kept the Kongos in Sumatra. You'll recall that my analysis (maybe Pinkerton-quality, but analysis nonetheless) was that he was very short on good capital ships to serve as escorts. So he grew accustomed to KB operating with a mishmash of capital ship escorts - many times my sightings showed KB with only CL and DD. Here he cobbled together a lot of capital ships, but the configurations were werid.

I think the lesson learned is that when his only real strike went in on day one, a large number of bombers attacked your embedded fast BB and ignored your carrier. Massachusetts took two torpedoes and a bomb that would have otherwise hit your carriers. This game has been around for a while and this fact is no secret. You have got to have BBs with your carriers. Anything otherwise is just bad planning.

[paullus99]

John putting so many carriers in one task force was his biggest mistake (among many).

He's also extremely over-confident...actually, he's the perfect Japanese player, since he exhibits so many of their real life faults.

[BBfanboy]

Canoerebel: And while Kwaj went up, Roi went down.

Rather than a FT TF bringing in new troops, I would expect that he used barges to bring some troops over to Kwaj. Could be because it has more supply, or maybe he just wants that one with the best (potential) port in the area to be a tough nut to crack.

Is there any sign that Wake got loaded up with bombers from his sunk/damaged CVs?
That could make your approach to the island risky unless you can provide a great CAP and reduce their numbers.

[JohnDillworth]

John put together a pretty credible strike to kill a BB at the end of the battle so he still has teeth. I believe Dan put one CV in the yards a few weeks back so that one may be back soon. Don't think John can go head to head (Dan is now in the one CV or CVL per month club) anymore but he can certainly raid, surprise, delay or work with land based air to be a factor. speaking of factors, am I wrong or did not a single sub put a single torpedo into a single cripple? poor performance on both side there

[Canoerebel]

BBFanboy, the following graphic hopefully answers your question about Wake's air defenses.

You are probably right about Kwaj's reinforcements via barge.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

John put together a pretty credible strike to kill a BB at the end of the battle so he still has teeth. I believe Dan put one CV in the yards a few weeks back so that one may be back soon. Don't think John can go head to head (Dan is now in the one CV or CVL per month club) anymore but he can certainly raid, surprise, delay or work with land based air to be a factor. speaking of factors, am I wrong or did not a single sub put a single torpedo into a single cripple? poor performance on both side there

I don't think any subs have scored during the Naval Battle of Wake Island. Pretty remarkable.

I didn't have any carriers in the yards prior to the battle. But BB Washington was under repair after taking two torps from a sub while bombarding Kwajalein two or three weeks back.

John definitely still has teeth. But no longer is it a question of even odds in a fair encounter. Now John has to choose the place of fighting carefully. A week ago Steroid KB + Mini KB could put 1,000 aircraft in the air to Death Star's 1,100. Today, once damaged ships repair, KB might put, what, 400-500 aircraft in the air? That's dangerous of course. But the prospect of sending 400-500 against 1,000 or more will seem awfully daunting.